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Type: Posts; User: Carni; Keyword(s):

1. ## Thread: How to calculate how often I win a middle

by Carni
Replies
2
Views
796

### Thanks for chiming in Blackswan. I've done it a...

Thanks for chiming in Blackswan. I've done it a few different ways and that's the result I get. It makes sense when I draw it out diagrammatically.
2. ## Thread: How to calculate how often I win a middle

by Carni
Replies
2
Views
796

### How to calculate how often I win a middle

I've got a model that gives me totals for basketball, and with it I use it to calculate the probabilities of winning overs and unders. Let's ignore odds and say I've got a profitable middle where I'm...
3. ## Thread: What is a point worth?

by Carni
Replies
8
Views
1,636

### That's exactly the sort of thing I was looking...

That's exactly the sort of thing I was looking for - that's great thanks!
4. ## Thread: What is a point worth?

by Carni
Replies
8
Views
1,636

### Thanks! Any views on how I could modify it to...

Thanks!

Any views on how I could modify it to do NRL? Obviously with NRL I can't just do the same, because points have different values based on whether it's (for example) +3.5 or +4.5, because...
5. ## Thread: What is a point worth?

by Carni
Replies
8
Views
1,636

### *** post edited to remove earlier data errors ***...

*** post edited to remove earlier data errors ***

Ok I think I did something clever, and figured out a point is worth 6 cents.

I downloaded all the AFL data from this website (810 games with...
6. ## Thread: What is a point worth?

by Carni
Replies
8
Views
1,636

### This is awesome thanks! Going to take me a while...

This is awesome thanks! Going to take me a while to work through it all, but thanks very much!
7. ## Thread: What is a point worth?

by Carni
Replies
8
Views
1,636

### What is a point worth?

Hi guys

Anyone done any analysis on how much the odds should change to give a team an extra point?

So if Collingwood +20.5 is 1.96 but I find Collingwood +21.5 elsewhere for 1.91, which is...
8. ## Thread: Problem with Odds analysis?

by Carni
Replies
2
Views
939

### Fixed. Once I got past the demonstration...

Fixed. Once I got past the demonstration entries, it started working fine.

9. ## Thread: Problem with Odds analysis?

by Carni
Replies
2
Views
939

### Problem with Odds analysis?

Hi

This spreadsheet is excellent. However, I've only started using it but it seems like the odds analysis isn't quite working?

I input the closing odds, but nothing seems to happen on the...
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