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Thread: NM4's NFL Plays

  1. #1

    NM4's NFL Plays

    NFL started this week and I will post my NFL plays in here. I had a pretty good NFL season last season so hopefully I can replicate it this season.

    First few weeks will probably be slow to see how every team is going as the pre-season gives you very little real information.

  2. #2
    Week 1

    Giants @ $1.95 x 1.5 units = 2.92 units (Bet365)
    Giants -2.5 @ $2.29 x .75 units = 1.71 units (William Hill)
    Giants -5.5 @ $2.99 x .25 units = 0.74 units (William Hill)

    Like the Giants here with Eli Manning capable of throwing plenty of touchdowns especially with Beckham Jr as a target and I also have questions over the Cowboys defence. Dak Prescott performed well in the pre-season but the real stuff is a totally different story in the NFL.

    Buccaneers @ $2.18 x 1.5 units = 3.27 units (Sportsbet)
    Buccaneers -4.5 @ $3.15 x 1/2 unit = 1.57 units (William Hill)

    Buccaneers could be the big improver this year. Good young quarterback with some good receiving options for him and a good ground game. They also beat the Falcons twice last year.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by nomore4s View Post
    Week 1

    Giants @ $1.95 x 1.5 units = 2.92 units (Bet365)
    Giants -2.5 @ $2.29 x .75 units = 1.71 units (William Hill)
    Giants -5.5 @ $2.99 x .25 units = 0.74 units (William Hill)

    Like the Giants here with Eli Manning capable of throwing plenty of touchdowns especially with Beckham Jr as a target and I also have questions over the Cowboys defence. Dak Prescott performed well in the pre-season but the real stuff is a totally different story in the NFL.

    Buccaneers @ $2.18 x 1.5 units = 3.27 units (Sportsbet)
    Buccaneers -4.5 @ $3.15 x 1/2 unit = 1.57 units (William Hill)

    Buccaneers could be the big improver this year. Good young quarterback with some good receiving options for him and a good ground game. They also beat the Falcons twice last year.
    Great start to the season for my NFL betting.

    Giants won 20-19
    Buccaneers won 31-24

    Went 3 from 5 for +3.26 units profit

    Record: 5(3W-2L)
    Units: +3.26

  4. #4
    NFL Week 2 plays

    Multi - Colts +7.5 & Buccaneers +7.5 @ $2.97 (Bet365) x 1 unit = 2.97 units
    Think both games will be close. Bronco offense could struggle to put points on the board this year and Tamba Bay could be big improvers this year with Winston really looking good

    Dolphins +3.5 @ $2.25 x 1.5 units = 3.37
    Dolphins @ $3.25 (Bet365) x 1 unit = 3.25
    Dolphins -2.5 @ $3.85 x 0.25 units = 0.96 units
    Dolphins -6.5 @ $5.30 x 0.25 units = 1.32 units

    Everything is pointing to Dolphins getting beat easily but New England are missing it's star quarterback, Gronkowski is injured and Hightower has been limited this week and may not play. That makes 3 key players, 2 offensive weapons and 1 key defensive player. Dolphins were unlucky not to beat Seattle in Seattle last week. Tannerhill has also thrown for 300+ yards in last 3 games against New England. $3.25 is value, should be more like $2.50, over reaction to Pats beating Cardinals last week.

    Multi - Dolphins +10.5, Colts +10.5 & Buccaneers +10.5 @ $3.32 (Bet365) x 1.5 units = 4.98 units
    As previously discussed, like all 3 of these teams in this week and giving all 3 a 10.5 point head start should provide plenty of breathing space.
    Last edited by nomore4s; 18th September 2016 at 09:15 PM. Reason: Added 3 leg multi

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by nomore4s View Post
    NFL Week 2 plays

    Multi - Colts +7.5 & Buccaneers +7.5 @ $2.97 (Bet365) x 1 unit = 2.97 units
    Think both games will be close. Bronco offense could struggle to put points on the board this year and Tamba Bay could be big improvers this year with Winston really looking good

    Dolphins +3.5 @ $2.25 x 1.5 units = 3.37
    Dolphins @ $3.25 (Bet365) x 1 unit = 3.25
    Dolphins -2.5 @ $3.85 x 0.25 units = 0.96 units
    Dolphins -6.5 @ $5.30 x 0.25 units = 1.32 units

    Everything is pointing to Dolphins getting beat easily but New England are missing it's star quarterback, Gronkowski is injured and Hightower has been limited this week and may not play. That makes 3 key players, 2 offensive weapons and 1 key defensive player. Dolphins were unlucky not to beat Seattle in Seattle last week. Tannerhill has also thrown for 300+ yards in last 3 games against New England. $3.25 is value, should be more like $2.50, over reaction to Pats beating Cardinals last week.

    Multi - Dolphins +10.5, Colts +10.5 & Buccaneers +10.5 @ $3.32 (Bet365) x 1.5 units = 4.98 units
    As previously discussed, like all 3 of these teams in this week and giving all 3 a 10.5 point head start should provide plenty of breathing space.
    All bets lost.

    Weekly record: 6(0W-6L)
    Units: -5.5 units

    Record: 11(3W-8L)
    Units: -2.24

  6. #6
    Haven't been able to watch NFL this past few days. From what I heard from my friend Dolphins are pretty weak this season. I cannot make my bet yet since I do not always follow NFL games.

  7. #7
    Only one play I like this week.

    Titans @ $2.50 (Bet365) x 2 units = 5 units return.

    Like the Titans here, Dolphins been pretty ordinary so far this season and their only win came in OT against a poor Browns team that missed 3 field goals. For the Titans struggles on offence they have been pretty good on the defensive side and if they can restrict the Dolphins from scoring too many points should create enough opportunities to score enough points to win the game.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by nomore4s View Post
    Only one play I like this week.

    Titans @ $2.50 (Bet365) x 2 units = 5 units return.

    Like the Titans here, Dolphins been pretty ordinary so far this season and their only win came in OT against a poor Browns team that missed 3 field goals. For the Titans struggles on offence they have been pretty good on the defensive side and if they can restrict the Dolphins from scoring too many points should create enough opportunities to score enough points to win the game.
    Titans won it easily in the end 30-17.

    Weekly record: 1(1W-0L)
    Units: +3

    Record: 12(4W-8L)
    Units: +0.76

  9. #9
    Only the one NFL play today.

    Colts @ $2.40 (Bet365) x 1.5 units
    Colts -3.5 @ $3.00 (Bet365) x 0.5 units

    Luck has a good record against the Texans, winning last 5 starts against them. With Houston missing JJ Watt I'm not sure they can limit Luck enough to stop the Colts putting points on the board and even with the Colts poor defence they will outscore a poor Houston offence if they can't pressure Luck.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by nomore4s View Post
    Only the one NFL play today.

    Colts @ $2.40 (Bet365) x 1.5 units
    Colts -3.5 @ $3.00 (Bet365) x 0.5 units

    Luck has a good record against the Texans, winning last 5 starts against them. With Houston missing JJ Watt I'm not sure they can limit Luck enough to stop the Colts putting points on the board and even with the Colts poor defence they will outscore a poor Houston offence if they can't pressure Luck.
    This bet lost.

    Record: 14(4W-10L)
    Units: -1.24 units

  11. #11
    The odds on this play were too good to go past.

    Green Bay Packers @ $3.00 x 2 units (B365)
    Green Bay Packers -4.5 @ $4.05 x 1/2 unit (B365)

    Green Bay are more than capable of winning this game. If Rodgers gets hot it doesn't matter which wide receivers are or aren't playing. If Green Bay can create a turnover or two and put some pressure on Ryan they will be in it up to their ears.
    Last edited by nomore4s; 22nd January 2017 at 07:10 PM. Reason: Spelling

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by nomore4s View Post
    The odds on this play were too good to go past.

    Green Bay Packers @ $3.00 x 2 units (B365)
    Green Bay Packers -4.5 @ $4.05 x 1/2 unit (B365)

    Green Bay are more than capable of winning this game. If Rodgers gets hot it doesn't matter which wide receivers are or aren't playing. If Green Bay can create a turnover or two and put some pressure on Ryan they will be in it up to their ears.
    No good. Green Bay got smashed. Missing a FG and then fumbling on the Falcon's 12 yard line with the Falcon's scoring from both opportunities in the first quarter pretty much killed the game early.


    NFL Record: 15(4W-11L)
    Units: -3.74 units

 

 

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