Welcome guest, is this your first visit? Create Account now to join.
  • Login:

Welcome to the Australia Sports Betting Forum.

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed.

Results 1 to 3 of 3
  1. #1
    New Member
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    9

    How to calculate how often I win a middle

    I've got a model that gives me totals for basketball, and with it I use it to calculate the probabilities of winning overs and unders. Let's ignore odds and say I've got a profitable middle where I'm betting:
    Over 210.5 (% chance of being over 210.5 = 57.6%)
    Under 215.5 (% chance of being under 215.5 = 47.8%)

    (As I said, let's ignore odds, but if the over was paying 1.99, and the under 1.99, this would obviously be a +EV middle with some risk (i.e. no pure arbitrage)).

    My question is: given the probabilities I have above, how do I calculate the % chance I win both bets? I feel like intuitively the answer is: (1-(1-P(over)-(1-P(under)) = 5.4% [equivalently (1-P(lose over)-P(lose under))], but I'm not at all sure.

    Anyone have better ideas?
    Last edited by Carni; 25th October 2017 at 03:47 PM. Reason: [Edited to give the equivalent expression in square brackets]

  2. #2
    I'm not sure if more information is required regarding the probability distribution, but if I had to come up with a number I get 5.4% as well.

    Total ------ Under - Over
    215.5 ------ 47.8% - 52.2%
    210.5 ------ 42.4% - 57.6%
    Difference -- 5.4% -- 5.4%

  3. #3
    New Member
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    9
    Quote Originally Posted by blackswan View Post
    I'm not sure if more information is required regarding the probability distribution, but if I had to come up with a number I get 5.4% as well.

    Total ------ Under - Over
    215.5 ------ 47.8% - 52.2%
    210.5 ------ 42.4% - 57.6%
    Difference -- 5.4% -- 5.4%
    Thanks for chiming in Blackswan. I've done it a few different ways and that's the result I get. It makes sense when I draw it out diagrammatically.

 

 

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •