NFL Picks

[blackswan]

Here are my NFL picks for Week 11:

New Orleans @ 1.32
New Orleans will still be steaming after the late controversial call cost them (and me!) last week's game. They are at home for this game and they have an excellent record at the Superdome. Cincinnati were unbelievably bad last week and they will most likely still be without RB Giovani Bernard.

San Francisco @ 1.52
The NY Giants offence is dreadful at the moment and their defence has conceded 106 points in their last 2 games. Also, San Francisco are 8-3 on the road over the last 12 months.

Cleveland @ 1.58
Cleveland have won their last 3 home games and they're coming off a shock road win over Cincinnati. Texas RB Arian Foster has a hamstring issue and Texas have an awful record when he doesn't play.

Green Bay @ 1.40
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has been in sensational form of late - particularly at home, where he threw 6 TDs in the first half against Chicago. While Philadelphia are a great team, I don't see them, or any other team for that matter, keeping up with Green Bay's rampant home offence.

[blackswan]

Here are my results for Week 11:

New Orleans @ 1.32 (Loss)
San Francisco @ 1.52 (WIN)
Cleveland @ 1.58 (Loss)
Green Bay @ 1.40 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -10.8 units on 40 units wagered. I think next week I'll publish tips for all fixtures because I did pretty well on other fixtures I didn't write about this week - Murphy's Law, eh?

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: -7.8 units

[blackswan]

Here are my NFL picks for Week 12:

Kansas City @ 1.31
Kansas City -7.0 @ 1.86
Kansas City have only lost one of their last 8. Oakland are winless in their last 8 at home and they're 1-7 at the line at home.

Philadelphia @ 1.15
Philadelphia -11.0 @ 1.99
The only team Tennessee has beaten in recent times was Jacksonville. Philadelphia have won 8 of their last 9 home games and they're 6-1-2 at the line at home.

New England @ 1.32
New England -6.5 @ 1.86
Detroit are a good team but New England are immense when they're at home and they're in imposing form at the moment.

Green Bay @ 1.23
Green Bay -9.5 @ 1.90
Green Bay's offence has been immense of late and they thumped the Vikings by 32 points earlier in the season.

Indianapolis @ 1.11
Indianapolis -13.5 @ 1.86
Jacksonville are awful, especially on the road, and Indianapolis have a strong home record where they're 7-2 at the line.

St. Louis +5 @ 1.95
I give the Rams a fighting chance of causing an upset against San Diego, who have been disappointing this season. St. Louis have already claimed the scalp of San Francisco on the road this year and they're coming off a convincing win over Denver.

Denver @ 1.33
Denver are 5-0 over the last twelve months when they come into a game on the back of a loss. They are also 4-1 at the line on the back of a loss.

San Francisco @ 1.26
Washington are a mess at the QB position and you get the feeling the Washington locker room is not a happy place to be at the moment. RG III has been disappointing since his return from injury.

Dallas @ 1.58
Dallas are having an excellent season and they've won 5 of their last 6 away games. The Giants have fallen apart over the last 5 weeks.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for week 12:

Kansas City @ 1.31 (Loss)
Kansas City -7.0 @ 1.86 (Loss)
Philadelphia @ 1.15 (WIN)
Philadelphia -11.0 @ 1.99 (WIN)
New England @ 1.32 (WIN)
New England -6.5 @ 1.86 (WIN)
Green Bay @ 1.23 (WIN)
Green Bay -9.5 @ 1.90 (Loss)
Indianapolis @ 1.11 (WIN)
Indianapolis -13.5 @ 1.86 (WIN)
St. Louis +5 @ 1.95 (WIN)
Denver @ 1.33 (WIN)
San Francisco @ 1.26 (WIN)
Dallas @ 1.58 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +26.5 units on 140 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +18.7 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for week 13:

St. Louis @ 1.37
Oakland broke their losing streak last week but they were playing at home. St. Louis have beaten Denver and Seattle at home this season so I expect them too be too good for Oakland.

St. Louis 1-13 @ 2.14 (not a typo - Sportsbet uses 1-13 not 1-12)
Six of Oakland's seven away losses were by 1-12 points, while St. Louis have won by 1-12 points in three out of their four wins.

Pittsburgh @ 1.50
The Saints have been disappointing at home over the last three weeks and they have an awful away record. Pittsburgh have been very good at home of late. I'm nervous about this pick, though, because the Steelers have been unpredictable this season.

Indianapolis @ 1.21
The Colts are 7-2 at home over the last 12 months while Washington are 1-7 on the road. Defensively Washington are okay but I doubt RGIII can keep up with Luck on Sunday.

Baltimore @ 1.38
San Diego have been disappointing in their most recent away games and Baltimore have thumped their last three visiting teams - all of which failed to score more than 10 points.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for week 13:

St. Louis @ 1.37 (WIN)
St. Louis 1-13 @ 2.14 (Loss)
Pittsburgh @ 1.50 (Loss)
Indianapolis @ 1.21 (WIN)
Baltimore @ 1.38 (Loss)

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: -5.5 units

[blackswan]

Hmmm. It seems the more selective I am with my picks the worse I do. With that in mind here are my picks for Week 14:

Dallas @ 1.57
Dallas are 6-1 on the road over the last 12 months. They are 4-0 as the road favourite while Chicago are 0-2 as the home underdog.

St Louis @ 1.70
Washington have been disappointing this season while St Louis have beaten the likes of Denver, San Francisco (away) and Seattle.

NY Giants @ 1.95
Both Tennessee and the NY Giants have been awful this season, but the Giants look closer to breaking their losing streak after close losses to San Francisco, Dallas and Jacksonville.

New Orleans @ 1.21
Carolina have been hammered on the road of late. New Orleans may have turned a corner after their upset win over Pittsburgh.

Minnesota @ 1.38
Minnesota are a tough team to play when they're at home. They hammered Carolina last week and the red hot Green Bay Packers only won by 3 a few weeks ago.

Baltimore @ 2.30
I give Baltimore a real chance of upsetting Miami this week. They've won their last three trips to Miami.

Houston @ 1.44
Houston have won their last two away games against teams of similar strength to Jacksonville. Houston have some excellent defensive players like JJ Watt who will thrive against a struggling team.

Detroit @ 1.22
Better teams than Tampa Bay have gone to Detroit and lost this season. I can't see Tampa Bay's offence keeping up with Detroit's rate of scoring.

Denver @ 1.22
Things are looking ominous for the rest of the competition now that the Broncos appear to have their running game working.

Oakland v San Francisco - under 40.5 @ 2.00
Both offenses have struggled while San Francisco have an excellent defence.

Green Bay @ 1.18
Green Bay at home are notoriously difficult to beat and Atlanta won't enjoy the cold outdoor venue given they play indoor home games.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for Week 14:

Dallas @ 1.57 (WIN)
St Louis @ 1.70 (WIN)
NY Giants @ 1.95 (WIN)
New Orleans @ 1.21 (Loss)
Minnesota @ 1.38 (WIN)
Baltimore @ 2.30 (WIN)
Houston @ 1.44 (WIN)
Detroit @ 1.22 (WIN)
Denver @ 1.22 (WIN)
Oakland v San Francisco - under 40.5 @ 2.00 (WIN)
Green Bay @ 1.18 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +49.6 units on 110 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +44.1 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for Week 15:

NY Giants @ 1.37
Washington are a mess at the moment, particularly at the QB position, while the Giants recently snapped their losing streak with a convincing away win over Tennessee. The Giants have won four of the last five head to heads with Washington and Washington are 1-7 on the road over the last 12 months. The Giants are 3-1 as the home favourite over the last 12 months.

New England @ 1.29
Miami are a good team, but I don't back anyone to get a result when they visit New England, who are undefeated at home over the last 12 months. New England have won 7 of their last 8 at home against Miami.

Oakland +10.5 @ 1.92
I give Oakland an outside chance of causing a major upset here. They beat Kansas City at home a few weeks ago and Kansas City haven't won a game since. Oakland beat San Francisco last week, which will have given them a major confidence boost. Despite their woes this season Oakland have only lost 2 of their 7 away losses by more than 12 points.

Indianapolis @ 1.36
Indianapolis are excellent at home and they've won 5 of their last 6 against Houston. Houston have been predictable on the road this season, going 3-0 as the road favourite and 1-4 as the road underdog.

Cleveland @ 1.92
With Johnny Manziel getting the start at QB for Cleveland this week, I can see him sparking their offence into life.

Balitmore @ 1.12
On paper this should be very one sided. Jacksonville are winless on the road over the last 12 months.

Green Bay @ 1.49
Green Bay are 4-0 when installed as the road favourite this season. I wouldn't back them at the -6.5 line, but they have a habit of winning away games with tight scorelines. Green Bay raced off to a healthy lead last week but their defence was awful against Atlanta in the 2nd half, so Green Bay's defence will have a point to prove this weekend.

Seattle @ 1.22
Under 38.5 @ 1.85
San Francisco have an excellent defence, but their offence has been awful in recent months. I expect Seattle to win in a low scoring affair. The total when they met two weeks ago in Seattle was just 22!

Detroit @ 1.26
Detroit are a strong home team while Minnesota have a poor away record. Detroit already beat Minnesota 17-3 earlier in the season away from home.

[blackswan]

I don't have any plays for the Monday Night game, so here are the results for Week 15:

NY Giants @ 1.37 (WIN)
New England @ 1.29 (WIN)
Oakland +10.5 @ 1.92 (Loss)
Indianapolis @ 1.36 (WIN)
Cleveland @ 1.92 (Loss)
Balitmore @ 1.12 (WIN)
Green Bay @ 1.49 (Loss)
Seattle @ 1.22 (WIN)
Seattle v SF - Under 38.5 @ 1.85 (WIN)
Detroit @ 1.26 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -5.3 units on 100 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +38.8 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for Week 16:

Philadelphia @ 1.30
Washington are on a six-game losing streak. Washington have yet to win this season as the home underdog and Philadelphia have yet to lose as the road favourite.

San Diego @ 2.06
Under 41.5 @ 1.93
San Francisco's offence has been ineffective and San Diego have a respectable 4-4 away record. San Francisco's defence is still very good, however, so I expect this to be a low scoring game.

Green Bay @ 1.19
Green Bay have a 4-1 record on the back of a loss. Tampa Bay have lost their last 6 home games and have nothing but pride to play for at the moment.

New Orleans @ 1.40
New Orleans' mid-season slump seems to be behind them and Atlanta have little to play for.

Pittsburgh @ 1.67
Pittsburgh should win this, although they have been painfully unpredictable this season.

Arizona v Seattle Under 36.5 @ 1.95
Two defensively strong teams going head to head. The total could very easily stay below 30.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for Week 16:

Philadelphia @ 1.30 (Loss)
San Diego @ 2.06 (WIN)
Under 41.5 @ 1.93 (Loss)
Green Bay @ 1.19 (WIN)
New Orleans @ 1.40 (Loss)
Pittsburgh @ 1.67 (WIN)
Arizona v Seattle Under 36.5 @ 1.95 (Loss)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -20.8 units on 70 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +18.0 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for Week 17:

New Orleans @ 1.51
After being so good at home and so bad on the road, New Orleans seemed to have flipped a switch mid-season. Their last 8 games (home & away) have been won by the visiting team and they're on the road this week. Tampa Bay will benefit by losing due to the implications for the 2015 NFL draft.

Minnesota @ 1.40
Chicago have been disappointing this season, both offensively and defensively. They enter this game on a 4-game losing streak.

Houston @ 1.21
Jacksonville are without a win on the road this season. Houston have a good record when installed as the favourite.

Dallas @ 1.40
Dallas can complete a clean sweep of 8 wins and 0 losses on the road if they can win this. They torched the playoff-bound Colts last week and I can't see Washington's inept offence keeping up with the scoring of Dallas.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for Week 17:

New Orleans @ 1.51 (WIN)
Minnesota @ 1.40 (WIN)
Houston @ 1.21 (WIN)
Dallas @ 1.40 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +15.2 units on 40 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +33.2 units

[blackswan]

I don't have any picks for the Wild Card Weekend. Hopefully there will be more value next week.