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  1. #881
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    Championship: Nottingham Forest - Brighton

    Nottingham Forest are in freefall and were absolutely dire in their last home start, a 3-0 loss to Brentford, both teams were nervous there early, but the home crowd was offering almost no support and both fans and players were pretty much waiting to concede ! Once the mighty, mighty Bees took the lead, already brittle Forest confidence crumbled and they were never going to launch a come back, or but up much resistance.They have taken just 4 points from a possible 30 since early February when they were in 10th spot and now sit in 20th, just nine points ahead of the drop zone, without a permanent head coach and giving thanks to the footballing gods that the bottom three in the Championship are so poor !

    Brighton won 2-1 last round and stayed very focused after conceding early, they are now 12 clear of 7th placed Cardiff City, with this game in hand, that is pretty much guaranteed top 6 now , as the Bluebirds only have five left to play ( and one is at Griffin Park !), so it will be all about three points for Brighton with nothing to lose and everything to gain by gambling. They are five points adrift of leaders Burnley with a GIH and four behind Middlesbrough, whom they have still to play, so a huge chance of automatic promotion if they win this evening, but things will be very difficult if they come up short. Brighton entertain Fulham on Friday night and by winning both, they will really be cranking up the pressure, especially on Burnley, who do not play again until Saturday.

    Chris Hughton's team were very professional at St Andrews and were worthy of a bigger margin of victory and the signing of Jiri Skalak in the transfer window looks very good business indeed and might be what gets them over the line, he delivers a peach of a dead ball and now that he is getting up to speed with the Championship (which is never easy) he is producing and has three assists in his last two outings and four in just 293 minutes of second tier football. If Forest play like they did against the Bees and in losing 2-1 to Reading subsequently ( it should have been 4-1) this can only end one way and the hosts need to seriously up their game to get anything out of tonight, but runs like this are incredibly hard to address and are self-perpetuating .

    Brighton -0.5 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket

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  2. #882
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    England League 1: Gillingham - Port Vale

    This is a massive game for the Gills who really need to steady their playoff challenge with all three points this afternoon, after a midweek home loss to Walsall left them in sixth place. The hosts missed a penalty there with the match scoreless, with former Brentford player Luke Norris the "culprit". The hosts now have Barnsley breathing down their neck in the hunt for top six and you suspect that the team from Kent are going to need eight points from somewhere to hold on to their current three point advantage. In situations like this, it is always easier to get wins sooner rather than later and Gills can have few complaints about facing Port Vale today. Meeting a mid table team with nothing much to play for is the dream case scenario at this stage of the campiagn and that goes double when that team is in (relatively) poor form and conceding freely. The Valiants were winless in four (conceded 10) before last weeks derby win over Crewe Alexandra, a result which confirmed that Alex would be playing League 2 football next season, that was one for the supporters, at least Vale followers, but the team will be facing more steely opposition this afternoon.

    Hosts' star player Bradley Dack has just recently returned from injury and he should be closing in on full fitness now and be ready for 90 minutes today and that will be a boost, but he needs some help from the forwards who all seem to have "issues" at the same time. Having said that, Cody MacDonald looked quite sharp in midweek and should perhaps have taken the penalty, Vale are easier to score against than recent opposition and have less to play for and odds look really good about a 14th home win (league high ?) of the campaign for Gillingham, especially as only Colchester United have lost more road games than Vale.

    Gillingham -0.5 ball 2.10-2.15 general quote

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  3. #883
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    Portugal: Benfica - Vitoria Setubal

    Benfica are the best team in Portugal and lost little in defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarter finals last week, they will now be looking to tie up the domestic title and can open up a two point advanatge over Sporting with the win tonight. The result should not really be in doubt, Setubal have won just six times this season and have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 starts. Obviously we are not going to get fat on odds about the hosts, who are asked to give up a 2.5 goal handicap. However, there might me a little meat on the bones of the first half handicap line as I feel the Eagles will want to come out firing given the extended break (having to wait until Monday) since they lost to Bayern, they have averaged 3.21 goals per game on home soil and have led at the break in 65% of home starts in the last two seasons and have been two up at half time in the last four h2h meetings with Setubal (two home/two on the road).

    Benfica -1.25 goals 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket in First Half betting

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  4. #884
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    France Ligue2: Clermont - Tours

    Tours haven't improved after the winter break, but are top ten, have won as many games as they have lost in the interim and have a solid base on which to build upon for next season and you suspect plans for that are well under way. They will not want their season to completely fizzle out and i expect them to be more motivated today that they have appeared on the road recently, following a 2-1 home loss to Nimes last Friday, only their second on home soil since October. Their road games following those last two defeats went comfortably "over" and Tours do play a more open style than is sometimes appreciated .

    Clermont are only three places above Tours, but are ten points better off and not yet out of the promotion picture, they might have six teams above them, but they are only two points shy of Metz in third and with none of the other four teams really imposing themselves in the race for the final promotion spot, everything is still up for grabs. Clermont are fun to watch and a little too gung-ho for their own good at times and they have conceded more goals than any team apart from Creteil in Ligue 2 and only the top two have scored more. They have conceded in each of their last eight home starts at an average of 1.5 goals per game through that sequence and they have won five of those (obviously with both teams scoring) and odds for that this evening are circa 4.0-4.20 and they look to offer good value and you could try something small if you can find those

    Clermont : Jeannin, Caillard - Agounon, Avinel, Bockhorni, Djellabi, Laporte, Rivieyran - Boulaya, Dugimont, Genest, Hunou, Jobello, Pereira-Lage, Reale - Diedhiou, Dugimont, Laborde.

    Tours : Kamara, Westberg – Gradit, Cissé, Cillard, Bouhours, Belkebla, Agouazi, Khaoui, Bergougnoux, Santamaria, Bedia, Do Couto, Louvion, Maouche, Miracoli.

    I feel the best value has to be over 2.5 goals 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket

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  5. #885
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    England Championship: Charlton- Brighton

    Briefly, hosts are now booked for League 1 and that has looked on the cards for months. Brighton are pressing hard for an automatic promotion spot and could hardly be in better form, with four straight wins, with a 13-2 goal difference and it is very noteworthy that the goals have increased along with the pressure on them to keep winning, which indicates great mental strength. Burnley went top with their three points last night, but Brighton can move level with the win today and they will have the three points and only that in mind this afternoon. Bonus is that if they win today and again at home next weekend, it means they will travel to Middlesbrough on the final day of the season with their fate in their own hands. Supporters have already bought up their full ticket allocation for that game, the final home match is a sell out and they ticket allocation for today sold out weeks ago, but many others will be in the home ends I assume and they will have huge support at the Valley today, when most home fans will only be going to protest against the board/owner.

    Brighton are on a good run and can add another London scalp this afternoon. Actually a five goal win would take them above the Clarets and that is probably not as far fetched as it sounds. Anyway, I have seen Charlton three times this season and they started all three games quite strongly and that is borne out by them having a -1 goal difference in the opening 30 mins, this quickly falls to -9 (3-12) in the 15 minutes before the break, which is when they almost always lose control of games at the Valley and there is a good chance we will see more of the same today. Brighton's first goal in their last four games (all wins) have come in the 29-27-29-45th minutes and that mirrors the period when the Addicks are most vulnerable.

    Brighton -1 ball as soon as the "in running" line hits 2.05 (currently 1.80) as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11v 11

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  6. #886
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    MLS: New England Revolution - Portland Timbers

    This is the one Wednesday game where one of the teams is not only clocking up the air miles, but are travelling coast to coast, West to East, for just a single midweek fixture. Portland have played six of their seven matches on the West Coast this season, either at home in Oregon, or in California, the other was a quick hop out East to face Orlando City where they lost 4-1. They had a 15 days break prior to that game, so I doubt that it makes too much difference that tonight's fixture comes after they have enjoyed a ten day hiatus, especially as they are back home again on Sunday and have another five straight games in the West. The large number of West Coast games to start their campaign as MLS Cup champions has been a blessing, after their season was extended into December, to put that into some context, Revolution, who did themselves make the post season, were done and dusted by late October, some 39 days earlier. Timbers would have had media commitments after that and their off season was some 4-7 weeks shorter than almost anyone else. Therefore, we can argue that the drain on playing staff is even greater than normal for a 3,000 trip East ,across several time zones, to play a single game.

    Since opening their campiagn in Houston, New England have stuck to the East like a limpet, they will be looking to build on this kindness of schedule and after two road games, will be hoping to get into top of the table contention by making the most of back to back home games this week. Portland will be without suspended Diego Valeri, who has 60 goals/assists in 109 appearances, Timbers have scored just three road goals this season and the Argentine playmaker has assisted with two of those , he had a lengthy absence last season and it took six games for Portland to win without him and remember, we are talking about the "best" team in MLS in 2015, so, a big loss.

    Portland were very slow starters last season (they have an identical record after seven games this year) and did not hit their stride until mid/late May and given their shortened off season, we can expect more of the same, maybe even a few weeks later before we see them at their very best. Revolution have to start turning draws (5/8) into wins and this looks a good opportunity.

    New England Revolution -0.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket

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  7. #887
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    England Championship: Bristol City - Huddersfield Town

    Last home game of the campaign for City and I expect them to really be going for this and to put on a big offensive show for their supporters. Their last two home games have both produced five goals and if they can score six against top six teams in Sheffield Wednesday and Derby County they can certainly run in at least 2-3 against Town in what is basically a friendly. The hosts are now safe and new head coach Lee Johnson has won the fans over (there was a lot of opposition to his appointment) and taken them comfortably away from the drop zone and, at times in the last couple of months, they have looked unplayable, but rarely for the full 90 minutes ! Johnson is an offensive minded coach and I am 100% sure he will be looking to win the final home game in entertaining style, City home starts have produced 64 goals (2.91 pg) and only Fulham watchers have seen more this season.

    Town are certainly a team who like to play on the front foot too and that is where all their talent lies, they have scored 58 goals this season and only two teams outside the top six (one is Brentford ....of course !) have scored more. They have scored a Championship high 21 goals in the final 15 minutes of games and conceded 19 ( only basement club Bolton have allowed more) through the same period.

    Early or late, goals will surely come today, but if you are following "in running" you could definitely look at goal lines in the final quarter, "officially" I will stick with ..........

    over 2.75 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket

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  8. #888
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    Scotland League 1 Playoff: Peterhead - Ayr United

    It is not everyday you see a team come into the playoffs with as poor a recent record as Peterhead, they have lost their last six starts with a 17-1 goal difference (!) and failed to score in 6 of their last 8. One of those defeats was a 4-0 home loss to Ayr just ten days ago (there was a red card early for the home side) , where they were three down inside 55 minutes, to make matters worse for the hosts, top scorer Rory McAllister (31 goals in 40 appearances this season) is suspended. United were very quick on the break there and Peterhead guilty of some truly terrible defending and I understand they have injury concerns at the back again this evening, their goalkeeper was flapping at everything and couldn't catch a cold ! Ayr will make the long trip North in good heart and shape and won the playoffs in both 2009 and 2011 having finished second in the regular season (like this time round) and did all the damage on the road in those years, they are at full strength apart from Jamie Adams and have scored eight without reply in their last two road starts. They appear in much better shape both mentally ( a few odd comments from the home coaching staff) and physically, and to have all the momentum coming in, they did lose 3-0 at home over the weekend, but were experimenting and had only this game in mind.

    Ayr United level ball (draw no bet) 2.10 general quote ........ or to win (-0.5 ball) 2.75-2.90 general quote

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  9. #889
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    France Ligue 2: Clermont - Brest

    We can normally expect more goals in all leagues at the end of the season, especially in games where there is nothing at stake and Ligue 2 is no different, this penultinate round has produced 50% of "overs" in the last three seasons , with 30% having at least four goals. Games last week produced 2.7 goals on average, which is almost half a goal up on the seasonal mean and we can expect more of the same today in general terms.

    Brest would not usually be the first team on your list when looking for goals, but now is time to throw the shackles off and relax a little.

    Brest have scored in their last five road games and four of those have produced at least three goals. Their recent home fixtures have been the usual low scoring encounters that Brest favour, but they have been hosting teams battling for survival or promotion, it is perhaps too easy for them to revert to type in familiar surroundings, on the road they can play with more freedom and enjoy themselves.

    Clermont averaged 2.92 goals per game, and only the top two have scored more. They have been in touch with the top three all season and broke into it several times, but lost their way when January was turning into February and never quite got back on track. They have conceded in their last nine home starts, seven of which went "over", the two "failures" were when they themselves failed to score (twice in last three) , but that seems unlikely a third time for such a potent attack, in what is a friendly fixture. Clermont will have to do without top scorer Famara Diedhiou, but fellow strikers Dugimont and Laborde have 13 goals between them , 11 of which have come since the turn of the year, along with five from midfielder Adrien Hunou and they look to be preparing for life after Diedhiou.

    Clermont: Jeannin, Caillard, Agounon, Avinel, Bockhorni, Laporte, Rivieyran, Salze,Ekobo, Genest, Hunou, Jobello, Pereira-Lage, Reale, Dugimont, Laborde.

    Brest: Hartock, Léon, Sané, Falette, Belaud, Lorenzi, Le Normand, Sankoh, Grougi, Battocchio, Jacob, Perez, Sissoko, Alphonse, Henry, N'Kololo.

    Clermont - Brest over 2.5 goals 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket

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  10. #890
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    Premier League: Bournemouth - West Bromwich Albion

    Like in almost all of Bournemouth's home games I favour goals.

    In the last home game Bournemouth lost 4-1 to Chelsea, followed by another defeat, 2-1 at Everton, but had enough chances there to have won. Adam Smith will miss the rest of this season , but the influential Harry Arter is back now and the hosts will be desperate to end their home campiagn on a high, but their issues here remain and 33 home goals conceded tells the full story, it is not a sorry tale, as the Cherries have survived with a degree of comfort and today will be one of celebration, but they could have posted a top ten finish with a little more luck, but more than that, they are going to have to have a rethink about how they approach home games, but that is for next season not this and we can expect more of the same from the hosts. Albion will be looking to experiment and Tony Pulis has added several youngsters to his squad and teenager Jonathan Leko will be hoping to retain his starting place, after impressing last week.

    I suspect that Pulis will be quite looking forward to this, he is a former Bournemouth player (two spells) and manager ( he was Eddie Howe's first boss) and is popular here on the South Coast and I doubt he will come and look to shut up shop in a "meaningless" fixture. Despite his reputation, Pulis has a habit of throwing off the shackles come the end of the season once survival is assured and his final two starts in each of the last four campaigns have produced 6-4-3-5-4-10 (!)- 4-5 goals, so all "over", seven with four or more and a wild average of 5.125 per game.

    over 2.75 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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  11. #891
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    England Premier League: Liverpool - Chelsea

    This is the last match at the Anfield in this EPL campaign. Domestic side has recorded one more disappointed season and for sure Jurgen Klopp and his team want to impress their supporters against last season champs. Expectations are huge from Reds like in every year and this match have to show their ambitions and capabilities for next season. In the same time, Liverpool could overcome Saints at seventh table position if they win today, so Klopp’s side will step on the field with huge desire and passion tonight.

    On the other side Blues are just one place but ten points behind today’s opponents. As the biggest disappointment of the season they will perform without pressure. At the ninth table position they don’t have any chances to perform in European competitions in the next season. But, in the same time Chelsea still have a great players and they can shine in any moment. The atmosphere at Anfield could have a positive impact on their motivation and we should expect big match tonight.

    Since, teams are without pressure it could be a lot of goals tonight, so our tip is Liverpool to score and Over 2.5.

  12. #892
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    Ligue 1: Bordeaux - PSG

    PSG have not taken their foot off the gas following Champions League elimination, infact, they have gone into overdrive and have won their last five since bowing out to Manchester City by a 17-1 margin, putting six past Caen and scoring four against Rennes and GFCO. The first two are above Bordeaux in Ligue 1 and the third are fighting for survival and if PSG are up for it, they can run in 3-4 + goals against anyone in France and with the quality in their squad, they are not going to be suffering from the effects of a long campaign as much as other teams. There are a few records/targets up for grabs, they would open up a 30 point lead with a win this evening (also reach 30 wins for the season) and Zlatan will surely want to say his farewells on a high, he has 35 goals and five to reach 40 in his last two league games is certainly not impossible. He will probably feel a little "angry" that he only scored one of the four at the weekend , with Edinson Cavani notching a hat-trick and PSG will probably be looking to put the record staright and gain a little revenge for the 2-2 draw in Paris in the reverse fixture and a 3-2 defeat here in Bordeaux last season.

    PSG have a lengthy injury list, they have been coping without Pastore, Van der Wiel and Verratti for some time, today Cavani and Blaise Matuidi are also sidelined. Without Matuidi in the squad, PSG have won 4/4 on the road ( GFCO, Troyes, Bastia and Nantes) with a 19-1 (!) goal difference, but he did sit out that 3-2 loss in this fixture last season. Cavani has played 25 minutes or less in 10 starts, PSG have won all ten, but again he also missed that defeat here last season, although I would say that had more to do with the fact that game was played just a couple of days after that gruelling Champions League tie at Stamford Bridge, which went to extra time and where Zlatan was dismissed early. Anyway, in those ten wins, PSG conceded in five and given the five goals that Bordeaux have managed in the last two meetings, I think the most likely outcome tonight is that a PSG win comes with both teams scoring.

    The logical conclusion is that Zlatan will score the goals, he will play only three (maximum) more games and will want to end on a high, he has scored eight in the games that Cavani has missed, but that is actually way below average for him, as he has over 1.2 per game in Ligue 1 all season, so was four short ! It is Angel di Maria who has thrived without his fellow South American, he has scored 7/10 (five on the road), just 3 (all at home) from his other 17 appearances. There is 2.50, even some 2.75 about him scoring and that looks good value.

    However, I will stick with PSG to win and both teams to score @ 2.80-3.0 general quote

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  13. #893
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    JLeague: Urawa Reds - Albirex Niigata

    Urawa have dominated this series in recent years, with an 8-2-0 record in Saitama, along with seven clean sheets and a very similar 8-1-1 from ten starts in Niigata, also keeping Albirex scoreless in seven. So, in the last 20 h2h meetings, Urawa have an 80% win rate and have not conceded in 70%. The hosts currently look as strong as at any time during the course of those previous meetings and they will be looking to extend their advantage in the Stage 1 league table and seal their place in the post season as quickly as possible,, leaving them free to them concentrate fully on the AFC Champions League instead of Stage 2 later in the year.

    Albirex have had a tough schedule and playing Kashima Antlers, Gamba Osaka and then Urawa Reds, all back to back inside ten days, with two on the road , is about as difficult as it gets in J-League and they will have spent a lot of time chasing the ball, come the final whistle tomorrow evening. 8 of their 14 goals this season have come from Rafael da Silva and Tasuya Tanaka, the first is injured and former Urawa striker Tanaka has only played more than 75 minutes twice in the last three seasons and has already been asked to play more minutes than he did in the whole of 2015 this season. They need to score, as they are incredibly leaky at the other end of the pitch, only relegated Shimizu S-Pulse conceded more last season and that trend has continued and they have already given up a J-League high 20 this time round, at the rate of 2.0 per game on the road. The core of their defence, which conceded eight in two visits ( league and cup) to Urawa last season is unchanged and they do not have appeared to have addressed those issues in the interim.

    Urawa Reds -1.25 ball 1.98 asian line/sportmarket

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  14. #894
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    MLS: Houston Dynamo - Real Salt Lake

    These two met in the reverse fixture in Salt Lake just two weeks. Real to work hard to win that 2-1 and lost 1-0 at MLS leading Colorado Rapids last weekend, not really any shame in that and Real had six attempts on target and dominated all passing and possession stats in the final third, especially after the break and really ought to have got something from that. They are ending games strongly and I see that giving them a big advantage here with Dynamo having played in midweek, a poor showing in a 3-1 loss to San Jose Earthquakes, where goalkeeper Tyler Deric was sent off late. I guess that will mean a return of Joe Willis between the sticks, Dynamo have just one cleansheet in 11 when he plays, conceding at the rate of 1.91 goals per game. Real have scored eight on their last two visits to Houston , they look the stronger team and have had an extra four days to rest and prepare for this.

    Real Salt Lake level ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket

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  15. #895
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    Championship Playoff: Hull City - Derby County

    I was with Derby in the first leg and they played terribly, losing 3-0. Goals change games and County looked the better team for the first 20 minutes, but conceded against the run of play ( goalkeeper will be disappointed) and that was a momentum changer, City grew in confidence and a few minutes later scored a second with a twice deflected shot. That left the Rams feeling sorry for themselves, unable to find a way back and City running the show.

    Second leg semi finals have tended to be open games and the last six seasons have seen all twelve games produced a minimum two goals , with ten going "over" and averaging 3.83 goals , four of the last five years have seen the two games total exactly seven goals and after the 1-1 draw last night at Brighton, this "should " produce five goals and that would not totally surprise. Away teams have scored in 10 of 12 ( 11 of 13 after last night) and the home side have scored three or more in seven. Last three teams to win the away first leg have gone on to win the home tie by at least three goals and I guess that County could collapse and "give up" if they conceded first, but you would expect the visitors to at least look to restore some pride and the away supporters are not going to accept any lack of effort this evening. The County players have had to (quite rightly) deal with a lot of local and media accusations of a lack of character in the aftermath of Saturday's debacle and have attempted to defend themselves, no one on the terraces or at boardroom level is going to accept less than 100% commitment tonight and if they lose again, they will have to go down fighting and committed to the cause, or they will be torn apart post match. One goal at either end will surely see this get very stretched. An away win would not surprise, especially as City can lose by two and progress, but I will go with ..........

    over 2.75 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket

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  16. #896
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    FAI Cup: Drogheda United - Derry City

    This is a replay after Drogheda United earned a 1-1 draw in the first meeting on Friday, I watched most of that and am still not quite sure how Derry did not win by 4-5 goals.

    City hit the woodwork twice, missed a penalty and they were not the big misses, also blowing about five one on ones with the goal keeper and being guilty of some diabolical finishing, you can get some idea from these 3-4 minutes of highlights. United created almost nothing and scored with pretty much their sole attempt on goal and they were gifted that by some Keystone Kop defending from City.

    There is pretty much a full division between these two and it looked all of that and then some on Friday and if Derry have half as many scoring opportunities this evening, you have to feel they will win with a degree of comfort. Derry have beaten Drogheda 3-0 and 5-0 in this competition in the last two years and should have won similarly in the first game, playing on the road should not stop justice being done this time round.

    Derry City -1 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket

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  17. #897
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    MLS: New England Revolution - Seattle Sounders

    New England will be looking to bounce back from a 4-2 home loss to FC Dallas and for new and very expensive striker Kei Kamara to start gelling with the talented Revolution midfield. This is a mini transition period for NER as they try to play to get the best out of their new front man who had 31 goals in 46 appearances for Columbus Crew, but now that he has 180 minutes of game time under his belt and Revolution a second free midweek in a row and almost three weeks based in Boston, it looks time to get going. Not least because they have three road games up next and do not play at Foxborough again until July 6th !

    Seattle are struggling on the road (0-1-3) , where they have scored just three goals , they made the 3,000 mile cross country trip here on Thursday without Clint Dempsey (US national team), Nelson Valdez (Paraguay) and back up striker Oalex Anderson. That leaves Jody Morris as the only available forward with goals this season and with Lamar Neagle and Obafemi Martins having moved on , this is not the old free scoring Sounders, at least at present.There are creating chances, but all from distance and are simply not getting in the box often enough. I guess Morris will move into the middle, which he will like, but that hardly addresses the supply issue, with no experienced option on the right.

    Good chance for Revolution, who won this match up 5-0 the last time these two met on the East Coast ( two years ago).

    New England Revolution -0.75 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket

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  18. #898
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    Copa America: Colombia - Paraguay

    This match is being played in Pasadena, so advantage Colombia having opened in Santa Clara, just a short hop down the coast and a beautiful drive along Highway 101 if you choose to go the scenic route ! Paraguay played in Orlando which means a six hour flight, three hour time difference and having played a day later, 20 hours + less recovery time. All these disadvantages add up and inbetween two tough games, I think it is the exta training session that Colombia will have been able to fit in that is the real bonus and I do think they will be looking to win the group. That would mean staying on the West Coast (Seattle) for their quarter final, as opposed to flying to New York and they would go to Houston in the semis if they won, which is where they are playing their final group game, so a big edge there , or rather no disadvantages, which is effectively the same thing ! It would also give Brazil the "option" to avoid them in the last eight and go into the separate half of the draw from both Colombia and Argentina, by finishing runner up in Group B. They might be without James Rodriguez today which is, of course, a loss, Los Cafeteros are 8-1-1 in his absence, although half of those starts were against weaker opposition than they face today.

    Paraguay played as kind of expected against Costa Rica, which was not to lose, head coach Ramon Diaz has been very critical of the schedule (he is right) and the very hot draining conditions, on top of everything else, his team faced in Orlando . They had a lot of experienced and likely starters withdraw from the squad pre tournament, Aguliar, Ortigoza, Barrios and Caceres who all started in their last really good result a 0-0 draw with Argentina for example are missing ( nine players with 413 international starts were either left out , or pulled out of the final squad) and options are limited. Diaz is 95% certain to stick with the eleven who faced Costa Rica, given the weather, travel, time difference, less rest etc, is that a good or bad thing ?

    Colombia's odds have risen to 2.15+ this morning, that probably relates to the "loss" of James, which is expected, but now means they are very backable, given that they hold almost every other advantage ..........


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    J League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Urawa Reds

    Sanfrecce looked to have finally broken the Urawa jinx , taking four points from them last year and they are now unbeaten in four h2h meetings. Prior to that Reds had dominated, with their head coach Mihailo Petrovic formerly in charge at Hiroshima for five years and knowing the club back to front. However, few of the current group would have played under him now and much has changed since 2011, but it was previously a major issue. Anyway, both have fallen off Stage 1 title winning pace and paid the price for a Champions League campaign, which always seems the case. Each will be looking to stay in touch of top 3 and to make a big push to win Stage 2.

    Both teams played in midweek, Sanfrecce in Tokyo, which is a long trip and four hours on the fastest train and they are fast ! Urawa in Osaka, not sure if they stayed and then moved on to Hiroshima, or went back to Tokyo and then made the trip on Friday, neither is ideal and it is a coin toss which is the more unsettling/draining, so for me, definitely advantage Sanfrecce who would have been back on normal schedule by Thursday. Urawa also played two extra Champions League games and in the last 23 days they have played a home game and made trips to Seoul, Osaka, Tosu ( another long journey) and now Hiroshima and that is very demanding, especially for a team who had about a 4-5 week off season, playing their final game of last season on New Year's Day and a CL game on February 24th ! It is no wonder that the schedule is beginning to take a toll.

    Petrovic spoke about the effect all this had on his team after the loss at Gamba, he admitted his team were running on empty, could not keep pace with Osaka early, got into things after the break briefly, but then just run out of steam and that they were "looking to rebuild" and get strong again after the next 2-3 matches were out of the way. They look to have hit a wall and the head coach as admitted as much and it is hard to see how they can be as up for this as the home side and their priority will surely be their two home matches next week.

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    Brazil Serie A: Atletico Mineiro - Ponte Preta

    Easy to see goals here, last three h2h meetings have gone "over". Atletico have conceded 14 in their last six starts, including four at Sport Recife which we have discussed in the previews below and have not kept a clean sheet in eight, six of Ponte Preta's last seven starts have produced three or more goals. The hosts have the option of bringing back Cazares and Erazo into the squad after the pair returned from Copa America this week, but they will be a game time decision. AMG played at Internacional on Thursday night , using 12 of the 14 who played last weekend in a match where they were down to ten for 30 minutes and at one stage playing versus 9 and then 8 , so all would have been working extra hard and now are playing in the morning game, just some 61 hours later. Ponte Preta were at home on Wednesday and have not travelled for 14 days, so a freshness edge to them. This is the first of four matches in Belo Horizonte for AMG, three at home and the derby with America and a chance for last years runner up to begin their climb up the table, but it is hard to see how it will be achieved with a clean sheet today and another high scoring game is on the cards.

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    MLS: LA Galaxy- Colorado Rapids

    Rapids have been the surprise package of the season and lead the Western Conference with an avergae of over 2 points per game and having conceded a MLS low 11 goals . They are on an eleven match unbeaten run and have conceded more than a single goal just once in sixteen 2016 starts in all competitions. They arrive here on the back of a 2-1 home win over Chicago Fire at the weekend, they have not left the altitude of Colorado for a month and should have some small advantages from that today, with Commerce City 1,574m above sea level. They have been ending games strongly with goals after the 85th minute in each of their last three starts.

    Galaxy are suffering a dip in form and have not won in six (all comps) and have kept just one clean sheet in 11 starts, that was ok when they were scoring freely, but the goals have dried up and they have failed to score in their last two and are short of offensive options right now. Robbie Keane and Gyasi Zardes are on international duty and Giovani Dos Santos and Steven Gerrard are doubts, the quartet have 16 goals and nine assists between them (Galaxy have scored 27), definitely out is right back Robbie Rogers who has had ankle surgery, he has missed seven games ( no clean sheets) since last June. On top of everything else, they played in Toronto on Saturday, so a long journey there and back on a quick turnaround and they have been vulnerable, when Rapids have been coming on strong, conceding in three of their last four starts after the 77th minute. They also play the Clasico game with San Jose Earthquakes in front of a massive crowd on Saturday and will surely have that at the back of their mind. Rapids look to have all the advantages and have to be the selection with the handicap start.

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    Brazil Serie A: Chapecoense - Cruzeiro

    Chapecoense were very disorganized last round and lost 5-1 away at Sport Recife . They acted quickly afterwards to appoint a new coach, but he has had no real time to work with his players, they will be starting their third game with a different coach inside 8 days and they have clocked up a lot of air miles in the last 10 days and they need a free midweek ( which they will get next week) just to regroup.

    Cruzeiro have just posted back to back and impressive wins, beating Ponte Preta 4-0 on the road and coming from behind to defeat leaders Palmeiras at the weekend, both were wide open contests and whilst there was a LOT to like about Cruz offensively in both and I loved the way they kept going forward, instead of sitting on their lead(s), they were suspect at the back and could easily have conceded four instead of one across the two games. They will be without central defender Bruno Rodrigo and left winger Alisson ( lost 6/23 when he plays. 12/26 when he is sidelined) tonight.

    Despite their "issues", Chapecoense are very focused on the points tonight, they travel to Santos at the weekend and know that failure to win this evening is likely to leave them very close to the drop zone come Sunday night. They have reduced ticket prices and are expecting a big crowd and have a new coach to impress. Both team have been involved in several shoot outs recently and we might well see another.

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    It's not so interesting when EURO 16 is still on!

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    Please, be good =) your predictions and bets for today's Poland vs Portugal game?

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    Champions League: Vardar Skopje - Dinamo Zagreb


    Sweltering in Skopje today and conditions will probably slightly favour the hosts, but that is probably the only advantage they might have and it will have cooled down significantly by kick off and if the forecast I saw is 100% correct, there might even be some cloud cover and a slight breeze during the game.

    The Macedonian team have struggled in Europe and have not won a game since 2004, that is 16 fixtures (0-6-10), they have mainly been playing teams of a similar level to Dinamo and they are going to have to up the level of their performance to break their duck this evening.

    Veteran coach Zlatko Kranjčar is back in charge of Dinamo for a third time and will clearly have a mandate to continue the visitors fine record in the competition and European football in general and to get another share of the huge riches that the Champions League offer for his club.

    Over the last decade, Dinamo have qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Cup/Europa League four times, the Champions League three times since 2011-12 including last year, when they beat Arsenal in the group stage and picked up 13.5m €. You get "used" to that kind of money and the club accountants will be looking for more of the same. Of course, they do not need to win today, a point would not be terrible and they would be confident of turning things in their favour next week, but that would put them under a little pressure , everyone knows the value of an away goal and one might be enough to collect the win today. Vardar are a little short handed up top and Dinamo have an amazing UEFA Champions League qualifying road record, being 9-2-0 away from home in the last four years.

    The Macedonian league doesn't begin again until next month, the Croatian league re-starts this weekend, so the visitors should be a few weeks further along in terms of fitness and I expect them to win this.

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  26. #906
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    it's so strange to see "champions league" words, after this Euro..

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    MLS: LA Galaxy - Houston Dynamo

    I previewed Houston's trip to Orlando last weekend when my notes included ..............

    "Dynamo replaced Owen Coyle with Wade Barrett for the rest of this season at the end of May and he has quickly make tightening up what was a leaky defence a priority and with him at the helm Houston have conceded just six goals in seven starts, after allowing 1.62 per game under Coyle. They are coming off a 1-0 home win over highflying Philadelphia Union, who are in second place in the Eastern Conference and afterwards opposing head coach Jim Curtain said that Dynamo were "organized and difficult to break down." They are starting to really build some confidence and we had already seen glimpses of their offensive potential in early season when they put five unaswered goals past FC Dallas and three over Red Bulls on the road, teams who were the best in each Conference last year. Now they need to put that all together in road games and tonight looks a good time to be facing City, who parted ways with head coach Adrian Heath on Tuesday after eight years at the club, he oversaw the franchise expansion into the MLS and was a key figure at OCFC. His number two has also left and two assistant coaches will take charge on an interim basis.

    City are in a tough period and are coming off an extra time loss to NASL team Fort Lauderdale in the US Open Cup last midweek and 4-0 defeat in Dallas on Monday, which means a lot of travel, quick turnaround all added to the disruption over Heath leaving."


    That game was a bit of a bore fest to be honest, but Dynamo were again well organised and defended well and had the best chance of the game, being denied by the woodwork in the 90th minute. That was another clean sheet and they are far removed from the team who were conceding so freely in early season. They have already posted road draws at Western Conference leaders FC Dallas and Vancouver Whitecaps (who are both very strong at home) under Barrett and Dynamo will travel in good heart to LA where they have had some titanic battles, including two MLS Cup finals with Galaxy in recent years. The only defeat under the new coach did come out here in the West, when they lost 3-2 to Portland, that looks a bit of a throw back to the Coyle era as they led 2-0 early and blew their lead late, but Dynamo were the better team there, both of those late goals came via penalties and the second in injury time should never have been given and that had already been forced to substitute their goalkeeper at half time when leading by two.

    They make the trip West without veteran left back DaMarcus Beasley who underwent minor surgery this week and will be out for a month, that is not good news, but the loss of Ashley Cole and Nigel de Jong for Galaxy balances things out. The pair both sat out the 1-0 road win at Seattle last week and that was a great result under the circumstances, but Sounders were denied by some poor finishing, the woodwork and a whole host of desperate late blocks and challenges and should have got something from that, probably all three points. No issues with Galaxy as favourites, but Houston are priced too big for my money and I take the improving visitors to come away with yet another draw.......1-1.

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  28. #908
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    US Open Cup: Chicago Fire - Fort Lauderdale Strikers

    Ahead of their home game with Columbus Crew in the previous round ,I spoke about how seriously Chicago Fire have always taken the US Open Cup...........

    "We have a full midweek round in Brazil starting tomorrow and are at the last 16 stage of the US Open Cup, with two of those matches being played today, the rest on Wednesday. The Chicago Fire- Columbus Crew game being played tonight is not without interest, the host have always treated the competition with respect and were close to full strength against NASL opponents in the last round, whilst Crew made wholesale changes. Teams are playing things a little closer to their chest this time round, but visiting head coach Gregg Berhalter did at least state that back up goalkeeper Brad Stuver would start in all Open Cup games, they have not got past this round in six attempts, are 0-5 v Fire in this competition losing twice here in cup play in the last three years (once in extra time) and it is easy to see Chicago taking this the more seriously of the two, playing in front of their own supporters.

    Fire head coach Veljko Paunovic said "This competition is very important. "We will go with our best possible team to start with the guys we believe can win the game." He then implied that the visitors were expected to rotate to some degree: " We want to stop them from progressing out of the back where they have quality players. "They have a very defined style and they perform very well. " We obviously, have to wait to see who is going to play but we know that they're style is consistent and they don't change even when the line-up changes."

    On everything we know historically about how these two clubs approach US Open Cup play, that sounds about right and we can expect Fire to field the stronger team. However, and you probably knew that there was going to be a caveat of some sorts, Fire have a home MLS game on Friday and will be mindful of that, although Paunovic said he would not think about the visit of Earthquakes until tomorrow.

    Fire are four time US Open Cup champions (but not for a decade) and have made it through to the semis in each of the last three years and they can edge this and continue their fine record in the competition."


    They won that 2-1 after opening up an early 2-0 lead and the Crew goal came late, via a wrongly awarded spot kick and after Fire , who will tonight be looking to reach the last four for the fourth straight year, took off their two main offensive threats at around the hour mark.

    Tonight they are three wins away from some silverware and a Champions League spot and that would salvage the campaign and give them something to build on for next season. FTL are the last NASL team left in the competition and Fire could not have asked for a better draw, with the lower league team struggling and having really ridden their luck to reach this stage (all three wins coming after extra time or penalties).

    There is talk of money problems at Strikers, recent salaries have been paid late and are said (unofficially) to be behind the departures of Adrianinho and Matheus Carvalho, which, with the suspension to Maicon Santo, means that FTL have only one player available with more than one goal to his name (he has two !) and arrive with no target man and a midfielder in the "striker" position. They have had quite a lot of attempts on goal this season, but most from distance, a low on target percentage and most of those achieved by players who will not be in action this evening and against a superior opponent, who is hugely motivated to win. Fire have a league game on Saturday, so will want to avoid extra time and another early two goal lead will surely be their target.

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    MLS: Portland Timbers - LA Galaxy

    Timbers are getting everything together for a big run at the MLS Cup which they won last year, a fantastic achievement for a club who only played their first MLS game in 2011. They came on strong after a slow start in 2015, 3 wins from their opening 12 starts, 12 from their final 22 and they are building up a head of steam currently, being unbeaten in nine and, after conceding far too freely early season, back to back road cleansheets at Rapids and New York Red Bulls have been hugely impressive. They are coming off a 3-1 home win over Seattle Sounders last Sunday and will have been thinking only about this game in the interim.

    Galaxy are a very big player in MLS terms and expect to be involved at the business end of every season and they will be again this year, but they had a tough battle in a 4-2 cup win over Seattle in midweek, with the two winning goals coming in the final five minutes. That was their fifth straight win in all competions, but all have been hard won, they did rest some big names against Sounders, Gerrard and Keane did not feature, but eight played some part in that and the last MLS game. We saw last season, that when on a roll and close to full strength, Timbers are a match for anybody and then some, star players Fanendo Adi, Diego Valeri, Darlington Nagbe, Alvas Powell, Jermaine Taylor and Liam Ridgewell have only played together twice all season (both wins) the last time was last Sunday and all are expected to feature today. The last three give the backline a very solid look, the first three have 20 goals and eight assists between them, Valeri is, if not the most influential midfielder in the MLS, then very close to it and as the Portland head coach put it, he is the "straw that stirs the drinks". Adi scored a whopping 14 regular season goals last season from the end of July onwards and when then Portland are firing, it takes a very strong team to stop them and I am not sure that LAG are quite that team nowadays, despite recent form. Home win. Late edit: Ridgewell is set to miss out for Timbers, but that alone is not enough to sway me .

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    Club Friendly: MK Dons - Everton

    New head coach Ronald Koeman will be very keen to get the supporters on his side, he has won his first two pre season games by a combined 4-0 and well over 2, 000 Evertonians travelled to watch the three goal win at Barnsley at the weekend and will be at Stadium MK in good numbers again this evening. They are a little restless at present as, whilst there has been plenty of talk about big name signings, none have yet to put pen to paper and the promised

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    Ligue 2: Valenciennes - Clermont

    We had very few goals on opening day last season and also no home wins, that was a little odd of course, but the previous two campaigns had produced an average of 2.7 goals, so I will see the start of 15-16 as simply a blip. Clermont were fun to watch last season, they produced a Ligue 2 high 109 goals and away starts averaged 2.95 per game. They finished 7th, seven points shy of a promotion spot, were in the mix most of the campaign and I doubt we will see too much difference in their approach, the six main "defensive" starters remain, are all in the squad and seem likely to start this evening, which kind of bears that out. They have lost two big offensive threats in top scorer Famara Diedhiou and Adrien Hunou, but winger Remy Dugimont had seven goals and three assists after the end of November and Corinne Diacre , who is in her third season in charge, believes in attacking football and has added a number of young strikers to the squad and to be honest, they have looked very similar to the Clermont of old in pre season, conceding and scoring freely.

    Valenciennes were wildly unpredictable last season, as highlighted by a 5-1 win at high flying Red Star being followed by a 3-1 home defeat. They earned 24 of 44 points on the road and with a home record of 3-11-5 , it is clear where their issues lie, they lost 2-1 and 3-1 to Clermont (league and cup), winger Wesley Jobello scored twice in the latter and given that Diacre opted to leave him out of squad which travelled, she must be reasonably confident about her team's offensive options. Gambling and winning half of those home darws would have taken Valenciennes into the top 8 (they were 12th) and that is the aim this season (to take a few more chances) and they have named an offensive looking group for this evening, with little defensive cover (18 yo Kyle Duncan has only ever played three games for the B team).

    I expect both to score and each to press for a winner, so it has to be ......

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    Quote Originally Posted by paul8209 View Post
    Club Friendly: MK Dons - Everton

    New head coach Ronald Koeman will be very keen to get the supporters on his side, he has won his first two pre season games by a combined 4-0 and well over 2, 000 Evertonians travelled to watch the three goal win at Barnsley at the weekend and will be at Stadium MK in good numbers again this evening. They are a little restless at present as, whilst there has been plenty of talk about big name signings, none have yet to put pen to paper and the promised
    I believe in Ronald Koeman's success in new team. I'm sure he could be new David Moyes for Everton.

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    Champions League: Dundalk - BATE Borisov (0-1 first leg)

    We have discussed BATE many times previously in Champions League qualification and they are probably the most experienced of all the non "elite" teams and have made the group stage of the competition five times since 2008-09, including the last two and in four of the last five seasons. They know how to work their way through these games and having won their domestic league for ten straight years and often easily, their whole season is usually planned and built around these games. They also have the advantage over most that, come early August, they are battle hardened and halfway through their league and at what should be peak fitness levels, they are currently heading for an 11th title and are 10 points clear after 13 rounds. This will not be a step into the unknown for them, last season they saw off Dundalk in Q2, winning 2-1 at home before drawing 0-0 in Ireland, now they arrive with another single goal lead, albeit this time with a clean sheet, to play in the Tallaght Stadium, the home of Shamrock Rovers, where this match will be held.

    Dundalk are without the injured Brian Gartland and captain Stephen O’Donnell and midfielder Ronan Finn are doubtful and will face late tests. The hosts look on course for a third straight Premier Division title, but are novices at this level and were comprehensively outplayed in Borisov, despite holding out for 70 minutes. However, BATE barely do too much above the minimum and have drawn four of five qualification games after winning the home leg, they will be happy with 0-0 and if they score, will sit back for sure and that will give Dundalk a chance to equalise, maybe even edge to a win, as they would need three to progress, but a repeat of last year's 0-0 feels the most likely scoreline. Dundalk boss Stephen Kenny was in charge of Bohemians when they overturned a 1-0 first leg loss to beat BATE in 2003 and whilst that was a very long time ago and the Belarus giants are a completely different club nowadays, that will give him some belief and he will be trying to transmit that to his players, who are much improved in the last two years. Despite thir incredible achievements ,BATE have played 17 European away games without a win and although they have played a lot of big clubs in that sequence, there are more than a handful against minnows and as already outlined, they rarely do more than they need.

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    France Ligue 2: Le Havre - Nimes


    I previewed Nimes home game with Laval last weekend .............

    "I wrote a lengthy preview of Nimes' trip to then leaders Nancy, who went on to win Ligue 2 by four points, back in late January, in that I spoke about Nimes great goalscoring form and how they had made a habit of running into form through the second half of recent campaigns. They collected 34 points from 18 starts from the end of November, which is more or less top 3 shape for half a season , add in their 8 point deduction and they would have finished 9th and given all that the players had to deal with in early season ( confidence was shot from how the previous campaign ended and they took until October 23rd to get to +1 point !), that was a fantastic achievement. They got great support through this improved run, fans bought into the great escape/ them against us attitude and five figure crowds (big numbers for them and L2) were turning up and really getting behind the team. What could have been a disaster, actually turned into a campaign full of promise and hope for the future.

    Head coach Bernard Blaquart has been busy over the summer and looks to have upgraded the backline and the addition of two experienced full backs in Gael Angoula and Zie Diabate looks good business. Up front, the signing of Rachid Alioui is promising, he was top scorer for Laval last season, which. additionally weakens the visitors, the striker hit the ground running this time last year, with five goals and two assists in the first 11 games and he was playing for a team who do not score many (just 12 in total through that sequence).

    Laval just do not win enough games and are too timid at times, drawing 50% of all games in the last two seasons, averaging exactly one goal per game (less last season) and too often settling for one point, when, with a little more enterprise, three could have been there for the taking. In addition to Alioui, they have also lost playmaker playmaker Romain Habran and Anthony Goncalves, their two top assist makers, that is a lot of goal threat from a team who do not pose much ! The solid defence has been split up with two players leaving and three of those remaining are getting pretty long in the tooth now ( in their 33rd-38th years) and this could be a tough season for the visitors.

    Nimes took a lot of confidence from a 1-0 pre season loss to Marseille, where they attracted a big crowd and dominated much of the play and were denined by the woodwork and some late ditch callenges/saves, they have low price admission deals to get as many people into the stadium tonight as possible and are targeting a fast start this time round and to continue where they left off last season. They have been away at a training centre all week to prepare for today and "bond" and I favour them to start with a win."


    Like many games last weekend that was a largely uninspiring affair, but Nimes were the better side and not helped by a poor playing surface , or referee Florent Batta ,who gave up 105 yellow and five reds in 21 Ligue 2 games last season and started as he means to go on in his one man crusade to ruin second tier football, by producing 10 yellow and two red here, the Laval dismissal came late in injury time, Nimes played 40 minutes a man short and probably saw a draw as respectable at that stage. I will be doing my best to avoid any games where Batta is in charge in future. I have spoken many times previously about Nimes being very offensive minded, especially when facing an opponent with a similar mindset and I expect, Le Havre, who are amongst the title favourites and who were one of those teams (see above) to open with a win last week, to be all out guns blazing for three points today. The two teams played out a pair of wide open encounters last season, which both produced four goals and something along the same lines is expected today.

    HAC came up a goal short of promotion last season and that, allied to just two automatic promotion spots, should ensure they will always be looking for maximum points. Nimes are without suspended left back (but has now been converted to left sided central defender) Fethi Harek, the 11 games he has missed in the last 12 months have averaged 2.91 goals. His absence will have got the attention of Le Havre new signing Algerian winger Zinedine Ferhat, who could go down the same route as HAC's last "name" Algerian signing Rihad Mahrez, Ferhat has every trick in the book and then some and there will be plenty of entertainment in watching him this season.

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    UEFA Super Cup: Real Madrid VS Sevilla

    Sevilla are now Super Cup regulars and are appearing in this European football season "opener" for the 5th time in the last 11 seasons. The previous four have produced 17 goals, including a 4-4 draw with Barcelona in 90 minutes last year, Sevilla have scored eight of those goals and are certainly not afraid to take the game the Champions League winner. La Liga games between Real and Los Rojiblancos offer even more promise of goals, with the last ten h2h meetings producing 47 goals with five going "over" the 4.5 goal line. The two most recent (last season) saw four goals in the capital and five in Seville and draws are incredibly rare, none in the last 20, 15 wins for Real, 5 for Sevilla.

    There is no Cristiano Ronaldo , Gareth Bale, Pepe or Toni Kroos in the Real squad (see below) , but Real have wins and goals in their absence in pre season with victories over Bayern Munich and Chelsea and three goals inside the opening 38 minutes in the latter and there are plenty of players looking to impress and showcase their talents in the absence of the two big offensive stars. Sevilla are much changed since winning the Europa League , head coach Unai Emery has moved on to PSG and been replaced by Copa America winner Jorge Sampaoli , top scorer K

  36. #916
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    France Ligue2: Clermont Foot - Sochaux

    Clermont got back to goalscoring ways in midweek, scoring twice against Amiens in the cup after drawing blank in consecutive Ligue 2 games, ahead of the first a 2-0 loss at Valenciennes, I spoke about the open nature of their matches over the last 12 months ......

    "Clermont were fun to watch last season, their fixtures produced a Ligue 2 high 109 goals and away starts averaged 2.95 per game. They finished 7th, seven points shy of a promotion spot, were in the mix most of the campaign and I doubt we will see too much difference in their approach, the six main "defensive" starters remain, are all in the squad and seem likely to start this evening, which kind of bears that out. They have lost two big offensive threats in top scorer Famara Diedhiou and Adrien Hunou, but winger Remy Dugimont had seven goals and three assists after the end of November and Corinne Diacre , who is in her third season in charge, believes in attacking football and has added a number of young strikers to the squad and to be honest, they have looked very similar to the Clermont of old in pre season, conceding and scoring freely."


    They went into their shell a little at home to Red Star to steady the ship, but beat Amiens 2-1 even without Remy Dugimont (see above) who returns, with goals from Salze and Ajorque and I expect them to play their usual style today. They will be without midfielder Thomas Guerbert who cannot play under the terms of his transfer from Sochaux.

    Sochaux have played one road game, a 3-1 win at Troyes and my notes on that are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. They have struggled for goals in two home games, when teams went to Sochaux looking to sit back and frustrate, they meet a team with a similar approach to Troyes today and one who will look for three points having only taken one from two starts and facing a tough looking trip to Auxerre up next. Sochaux will freshen up with the return of Werner, Teikeu, Berenguer, Ramare and Andriatsima , who all sat out the cup game in midweek and all four will start, I favour Sochaux, but feel this time there is better value with ..............

    over 2.25 goals 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket

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  37. #917
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    Spain Super Cup: Sevilla - Barcelona

    We discussed Sevilla in midweek ahead of their UEFA Super Cup match up with Real Madrid, where they led 2-1, but lost 3-2 in extra time. That came at a cost and the entire three man backline of Timothee Kolodziejczak ,Daniel Carrico and Nicolas Pareja miss out through a combination of injury and suspension. There was already a lot of space in behind that trio at times in midweek and Real frequently broke the offside trap and Sevilla will be pushing forward a lot tonight in the first real home debut for the new coach. Barce have been very hit and miss in pre season and are only slowly re-introducing their star names into the squad after a busy summer, but Messi and Suarez definitely play tonight and the one constant in pre season has been goals and their four high profile warm up games have all produced at least four and Leicester City, Liverpool and Sampdoria all scored two or more against the Catalan giants. The 2.80-3.0 for Sevilla to score two or more goals (over 1.5) feels big and is very tempting, but I will opt for the easier to back ...........

    Sevilla: Sergio Rico, Jos

  38. #918
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    J League: Gamba Osaka - Vissel Kobe

    Gamba posted a fine 2-0 win at Jubilo Iwata last week, the breakthrough and then second goal took a while to come, but they were well on top and could have won by at least two more goals and it feels like someone is in for a bit of a hiding soon.

    My notes on last week's game can be read in full below the "good luck", Gamba have got a little swagger back and have been talking all week about their Stage 2 title "charge", they trail leaders Urawa by five points, which is very do-able with the pair due to meet on Matchday 14, but there can be no let up now. Vissel Kobe might argue that they are still in with a slim chance too , being four behind Gamba , but that is a little far fetched and despite me talking a lot about Kobe as a potential challenger for honours in the future, that is more likely to be in the cup(s) or next season in league terms and they need to pick up a little on the road. They will not lack for motivation in the Kansai derby, but Gamba have won 4 of five meetings in Osaka and the last three wins have all been by 2+ goals.

    Kobe are a very offensive minded team and are a team full of goals on a going day, which is good for us, as they are unlikely to come and park the bus and they do like, so do Gamba for that matter, to make things difficult for themselves and Vissel have conceded first in three of their last four and conceded six without reply in their last 213 minutes on the road. They arrive without suspended central defender Masahiko Inoha and they will miss him with Gamba starting to fire.

    Gamba -0.5 ball 2.05 asian line/Sportmarket

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  39. #919
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    UEFA Champions League: Hapoel Beer Sheva - Celtic FC

    Celtic won the first leg 5-2 and looked out of sight at one stage at 3-0 early in that tie and on another night could have won by five, however and equally, they could have crumbled at 3-2 and again when the Israeli side were denied a penalty later in the game. We have seen them do so before and Brendan Rodgers, the head coach of the Scottish champions, said yesterday that those involved in last season's surrender to Malmo at this stage of the competition will not be unnerved by that disappointment. Adding:"I think a lot has been made of what's happened in the past and I've always said you have to embrace failure." He spent half the interview talking about this and for me,the loss in Sweden, and some other big collapses in the Champions League in recent campaigns, are clearly playing on his mind.

    I think that this will be a very different game, Celtic were very fortunate not to lose at Astana, where they fought a rearguard action for most of the 90 minutes and they have won just 9 of 62 , including 2 of their last 14, away starts in Europe and have kept just two clean sheets in the last 20 ( in Azerbaijan and Iceland).Hapoel Beer Sheva have great confidence from their first domestic title in 40 years last season and head coach Barak Bakhar feels there is still life in this and rested key players for tonight in their league opener on Saturday.

    HBS are a special team and have very much a them against us mentality domestically, Beersheba being in the "wilderness " of the South and their title win last season was described as "doing a Leicester City", which is a phrase we are going to hear far too much of ! Celtic can lose by 2 and still progress and I think they will look to keep this tight, which they are ill equipped and unused to doing and I expect the host to edge this narrowly and both teams to celebrate come the end of 90 minutes. The visitors also conceded two goals quickly from three up against St Johnstone at the weekend and sitting on a lead is not their forte.

    Hapoel Beer Sheva -0.25 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket

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  40. #920
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    La Liga: Espanyol - Malaga

    Malaga are in the Ajaccio mode and rarely cut loose on the road, however, Juande Ramos is back in charge and got them playing some attractive football in pre season, when they scored a lot of goals, they struggled to break down an Osasuna side who came with only a point in mind last week and had to settle for 1-1, but the overall performance certainly offered promise and I do expect to see a more adventurous approach from them this season. That will go double and treble for Espanyol who opened with a 6-4 loss (!) at Sevilla, tough to score four on the road and not get a point, but I doubt they will abandon their attacking principles and will instead take heart from their offensive performance. The signings of Leo Baptistao, Pablo Piatti, Jose Manuel Jurado and Jose Antonio Reyes hardly hinted at a team who were going to sit back in any game, they are looking to strengthen defensively before the window closes, but right now look full of goals at one end and leaky at the other, I suspect they will be fun to watch all season and odds for this to provide some of that entertainment look on the big side.

    The first round of games saw 40 goals , there were only 32 on opening day in the previous two seasons combined, the increased and more equal distribution of television money in Spain has meant increased pressure on teams to entertain and I feel that last week might not just be a blip, but an ongoing trend. There could mean value for us in early season if that is the case and before the oddsmakers fully catch up.

    over 2.5 goals 2.38 asian line/Sportmarket

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