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MattRe
30th September 2017, 12:05 AM
hi guys
got a football % question

Stirling scored O2.5 goals in 75% of their games
Elgin scored O2.5 goals in 100% of their games

how do I work out the odds of the game going 02.5 goals in the match?

is it 75/100
100/100
2 fractions 175/200 then divide by 2 so 87.5 of the game going over 2.5 goals based on the stats
or am i working it out wrong?

TY

MattRe
30th September 2017, 12:14 AM
another one is team A 33% over 2.5 team b 67% over 2.5

whats the % odds over 2.5 scored? which i can turn into odds

blackswan
30th September 2017, 02:31 PM
I'm not sure about the first example, but for the second one it sounds like the Poisson Distribution could answer that question (explanatory article: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Soccer/how-to-calculate-poisson-distribution/MD62MLXUMKMXZ6A8), sample output: http://www.aussportstipping.com/sports/epl/poisson/chelsea_vs_man_city/). The model takes into account each team's offensive and defensive strengths.