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View Full Version : Sincero Dominates Early Markets



Dan Helson
29th September 2011, 12:59 PM
Stephen Farley’s Umatilla gelding, Sincero, will jump as the horse to beat in this Saturday’s Epsom Handicap at Randwick. Sincero has dominated early betting since the market has opened earlier this month, and has now firmed into the $4.60 favourite to take the $500,000 purse.

Sincero is undefeated as a 4 year-old and should he win this weekend it will be his 12th victory from 16 starts, it will make four straight victories and his third win at the elite level. Connections will know that this win will be no walk in the park as they are up against a quality field of horses. The horse which is next on the betting line, Secret Admirer, made Sincero push all the way to the post in his gritty first-up win in the Tramway Handicap back on the 3rd of September. His last-start win in the George Main Stakes on September 17th was something special though as he was 3 wide all race and sat right back to 3rd last at one point and fought back to stage a remarkable sprint down the straight to claim the scalp of Ilovethiscity with 100m to go and grab the prize money.

Whilst majority of money for the race is being placed on Sincero, at odds worth some good value, there are still those out there who are backing Grahame Begg’s Dubawi mare, Secret Admirer, to turn the tables on the dual Group One winner Sincero. The last time that these two met it was decided by the bob of the head on the line, the two of them swept to the lead and fought it out over the final 300m. Secret Admirer is racing for consecutive victories on Epsom Handicap Day after her victory in the Group 1 Flight Stakes last year in only her 4th start. Brenton Avdulla, who was the jockey when Secret Admirer won the Flight Stakes last year, is back on bored after serving his suspension and will hope to improve on the last start they teamed up. Secret Admirer caused some early concerns after the race that she may have pulled up with an injury to her leg which may have been the reason that she struggled to make up the ground but tests and scans proved otherwise and she was given the all clear by the vet.

There are other notable horses to try and upset Sincero this Saturday including the four-year old mare Pinker Pinker and Peter Moody’s New Zealand import King’s Rose who is undefeated this preparation and has two Group 2 wins this already this season in the Memsie Stakes and the Stock Stakes. Moody will be hoping that his Kiwi import can go one further this weekend by keeping their unbeaten record in Australia intact and causing an upset to bring home his first Group One victory in Australia. A couple of roughies that may play a part in the race include Sacred Choice ($14), especially if there is any form of heaviness in the track. But there is also Renewed Vitality who has some rather good form behind her and has the Brazilian sensation Joao Moreira on board.

However, both Sincero and Secret Admirer have drawn awkward barriers, barrier 1 and barrier 16 respectively, and this has caused the money to head to other hopefuls in the race. Thankgodyou’rehere has come in from $13 into $11 after drawing barrier 2, Chris’ Waller’s Foreteller is early market mover $9 in from $10 after drawing nicely into barrier 8 and with Gai Waterhouse’s King’s Lionheart coming off back-to-back victories, including the Group 2 Shannon Stakes last start, the bookies are giving incredible value for money at $17.

Dan Helson
29th September 2011, 06:15 PM
There have been some quite eye catching moves in the market for Saturday's Epsom with the Peter Moody's King's Rose being officially removed from the field this afternoon due to pulling up tired during trackwork this morning. After drawing the widest barrier for the race the scratching of King's Rose will not affect the starting positions of other horses.

Sincero has drifted slightly out to $4.80 from $4.60

Red Tracer has shortened quite considerably from $26 into $21 but is still good value in double figures

Pinker Pinker, who ran a nice second to King's Rose in the Group 2 Stock Stakes at Moonee Valley last start, has found some support and is into $6 from $7.50