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admin
9th August 2011, 03:14 PM
Round 1 of the English Premier League kicks off this weekend.

Below are the latest fixture odds (subject to change).

http://www.aussportsbetting.com/images/2011-08-09_epl_round_01.png (http://affiliates.luxbet.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_163b_43)

pominoz
9th August 2011, 04:00 PM
I've heard the Tottenham fixture is under threat of being postponed due to the violence in the area. I wonder how many other fixtures could be affected. Thank God the Olympics isn't held this year!

Goodsy
10th August 2011, 10:45 PM
So guys.. a little advice req'd.

Sportingbet are having a 20% bonus on a 4 leg multi with a minum $10 bet that must have minumum $6 odds. So far Im looking at:

Liverpool v Sunderland
Stoke v Chelsea
West Brom v Man U

I was going to add in Man C over Swansea.. but that wouoldnt give me enough. It can be around the $1.70 mark for the last match. Im also looking at Arsenal away to Newcastle, but that could be a tricky away game to. Any thoughts on what might be a good 4th option to add to the above ?

Cheers Guys...

qtip
11th August 2011, 11:46 AM
It's a tough one. Mathematically speaking, Liverpool is the safest bet with a 12-4-3 home record last season. Man Utd and Chelsea have had strong pre seasons so I agree with those picks too.

It's hard to include a combo with Man City because even if you replace a 1.46 odds bet with a 2.10 one, 1.22 odds still won't get you over the line.

My initial instict was to recommend Wigan against Norwich @ 2.10 or Arsenal against Newcastle @ 1.91, but the pre season results scare me off a bit. Fulham @ 2.10 is another option because Aston Villa had a poor away record last season. Bolton had a shocking away record last year so QPR @ 2.30 are in with a shout, however a draw @ 3.25 wouldn't surprise me in the least.

I think some of the odds have shortened. Based on the latest odds and your three selections you are at 1.46 x 1.60 x 1.46 = 3.41, so 1.76 is now required.

For all it's worth, below are two options that stand out to me:

Fulham (2.10) - draw - Aston Villa <-- alternatively, replace with Arsenal @ 1.91
Liverpool (1.46) - draw - Sunderland
Stoke - draw - Chelsea (1.60)
West Brom - draw - Man Utd (1.46)
@ 7.16 odds

Liverpool (1.46) - draw - Sunderland
QPR - draw (3.25) - Bolton
West Brom - draw - Man Utd (1.46)
Man City (1.22) - draw - Swansea
@ 8.45 odds

I tip my hat to Sportingbet for requiring four legs, because it certainly makes it difficult!

Goodsy
11th August 2011, 07:45 PM
Thanks for the detailed response qtip.... I could not have asked for anything better. Appreciate it.. will have a look into the options suggested and report back what I might be swaying towards.. need to investigate, a day 2 of thinking on the cards here..

I do agree that 4th leg really makes things interesting on this one..

Once again thanks for the feedback..

admin
11th August 2011, 08:34 PM
Notice:

The Tottenham vs Everton fixture has been postponed due to the riots:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/14485169.stm

pominoz
11th August 2011, 08:38 PM
qtip makes a good point about the 4th fixture. The 6.00 odds requirement is pretty cunning too... Are you definitely keen to have a punt this week? My understanding is that the Sportingbet promotion also applies to week 2, not that it will be any easier :)

qtip
12th August 2011, 11:45 AM
You're welcome Goodsy. To be honest I enjoyed the challenge!

Given the likely transfers of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri away from the club, I'm getting cold(er) feet with Arsenal. Have you made a wager?

Goodsy
12th August 2011, 06:40 PM
Yeah I saw Gunners accepted the offer for Fabregas... not fun times there.

I havent place the wager yet.. I did some research this morning on the clubs mentioned. Will do some more check ups.. probably place it tomorrow arvo.

I like to do one multi a round.. this will probably be the one... bit of fun.

Goodsy
13th August 2011, 10:15 AM
Ive done it.. got the following -

Fulham v Aston Villa
Liverpool v Sunderland
Stoke v Chelsea
West Brom v Man U

Ive got $10 on it @$7.36
Then if it comes off I will get 20% bonus on the winnings. Im willing to lose $10 to have a crack at it.. tonight is crucial with Fulham.

Thanks for your input guys..

Let the games begin !!

qtip
13th August 2011, 03:25 PM
Best of luck Goodsy. I agree, Fulham's fixture is definitely the biggest obstacle, but you've done exactly as I would have done.

I've got a bit carried away with a recent Luxbet promotion, so now I really need Man U to win this week.

Goodsy
13th August 2011, 05:00 PM
haha - cheers thanks qtip... goodluck for ur Man Utd game... nothing like being caught up in the moment and geting carried away... haha

I got carried away after a few drinks last week watching UFC and placed a few last minute bets during the event. I did better betting with drinks under my belt then I did pre-event, though still came out in the red from it.. Good fun..

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 01:20 AM
hmmmm - 60 mins in... Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland and Fulham 0-0 Aston Villa

A slightly nervous last 30 mins....

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 01:51 AM
Ahhhh well... couldnt even get one game tonight. From the 4 games so far tonight not one home team won.

qtip
14th August 2011, 10:35 AM
The unpredictable results so far are making my Man U call look worse by the minute. The Newcastle v Arsenal result is the one that surprises me the least. Now is a good time to face the Gunners.

The prem has now gone 6 games without a victory for the home side. With Man U playing away, please let that streak continue!

qtip
14th August 2011, 10:42 AM
Just to show how brutal the first round has been thus far, the BBC 'football expert' has yet to predict one correct result for win-loss-draw - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/football_focus/14387584.stm

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 10:56 AM
Yeah pretty tough hey.. I got a Man Utd and Chelsea bet.. their odds are too good not to take em.

Im wioth you.. lets hope the away teams keep winning from here.

SHame the Everton v Tottenham game wasnt on last night. I was really looking forward to that one.

THe Liverpool game was good to watch, except Liverpool did drop their bundle 2nd stanza.

qtip
14th August 2011, 05:06 PM
I agree, Tottenham v Everton was on paper one of the highlights of the round.

I think the bookies will be doing well for the first few weeks until people can get a better idea of team forms.

The one thing that gives me hope with the Man U fixture is that they, along with Chelsea, have shown great pre season form.

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 08:58 PM
Just had a look and Chelsea have gone out to $1.77, wonder if its worth putting an extra $10. What do you guys think ?

qtip
14th August 2011, 09:23 PM
Stoke could be a tough assignment because they are so strong at set pieces, althought they are missing some personnel. Stoke haven't conceded a goal in their pre season games, although they haven't scored more than one goal in them either. This article sums up the fixture really well - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/14435069.stm

If Chelsea do lose you should consider yourself unlucky, given Chelsea "won their last nine opening games to a season." It's interesting to see how the Saturday fixtures have impacted the Sunday odds. Man U have moved from 1.46 to 1.60. My inclination is to back Chelsea at these new odds.

Let's hope we don't see a 1-1 draw.

qtip
14th August 2011, 09:25 PM
Actually I've just checked and Luxbet are offering 1.88 on Chelsea while Pinnacle Sports are offering 1.962. Do you have other memberships, as it seems Sportingbet is offering less value than others for Chelsea.

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 09:56 PM
Nah I just use sportingbet.. keep it simple. They generally have pretty good odds. JUst wondering when it gets closer to kick off if they will increase the odds.

Good article you found to.. the way results have gone this weekend im not filled with a lot of confidence and will probably just sit with my bets the way they are. If I had not of already placed a bet on Chelsea and Man Utd then I would place the bet. Otherwise I have have had an ordinary weekend so will sit on what I have..

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 09:58 PM
Just checked again and Chelsea have gone up to $1.80, looks like it would be worth waiting until kick-off if there was going to be a last decision bet.

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 10:02 PM
Torres fit and starting, Drogba to the bench.... you know your in a good spot if you move Drogba to the bench.

qtip
14th August 2011, 10:04 PM
I figured anything over 2.00 odds would be irresistable, so I've just made a small punt at 2.02. The odds movements are fascinating. They've been steady all week, but Saturday has everyone spooked.

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 10:10 PM
WHat about this for a multi tonight -

Stoke - Chelsea
West Brom - Man Utd
Cardiff - Bristol City
Blackpool - Peterborough

@$8.89 might be worth a lazy $5... or even

Stoke - Chelsea
West Brom - Man Utd
Cardiff - Bristol City

@$4.75

One of those 2 could be worht a quiet $5

qtip
14th August 2011, 10:14 PM
A fiver could wipe out your weekend losses... or cost you $5... worth the risk perhaps?

qtip
14th August 2011, 10:16 PM
With the way things have gone so far, don't let me talk you into anything!

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 10:16 PM
Yeha looking at the 2nd option... with 3 games.. odds have just increased from $4.75 to $4.88, might wait 10 more mins before placing it... Chelsea have increased to $1.85 on sportingbet.

qtip
14th August 2011, 10:17 PM
I have an early start tomorrow so I'll leave you to it. Best of luck Goodsy.

Goodsy
14th August 2011, 10:29 PM
Ive placed the 3 leg multi @$4.88.... well im off to bed.. see how we go.

qtip
15th August 2011, 11:34 AM
Of the fixtures you mentioned in your multis only Chelsea failed to win. I heard three penalty appeals were turned down, with one of them being quite credible. Having said that, it sounds like there was an element of good fortune in Man U's victory.

As I said before, I really needed Man U to win, so I'm relieved, but it was a poor bet to make.

What a crazy round of football.

Goodsy
15th August 2011, 06:23 PM
Yeah can;t believe of the teams to let me down was Chelsea... well it was worth the risk. Minimal outlay for a good return and a reasonaby safe(ish) bet to... its pretty indicative of my luck of recent.

Always next week... hope to bounce back. Due a little luck..

And yeah what a nutter of a week in footbal hey. Pretty excited about this EPL season.. my expectations are pretty high for it.