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The following comments are from Neil Evans at Luxbet.
The improving weather and a return to spacious Eagle Farm should light up punters eyes on Tatt’s Tiara day, and as is nearly always the case across a Qld winter carnival, there’s value galore if you hit the nail on the head!
Certainly, early punters can bet with confidence. Big fields and genuine tempo, suggest most horses should get their chance, with those near the speed and back in the field all able to get into the fight. But again, expect the back-markers to play a bigger role as the day wears on!
• It’s a while since we’ve headed into a Sydney meeting with reasonable weather and a track well out of heavy range, yet tactics will be a giant key in most races at Warwick Farm.
Moderate-sized fields, with many chances, mean races like the third, sixth and last could all be chopping-and-changing affairs, so judging spe ed and finding the right position will be critical, especially if the track starts to play towards the middle which is usually the pattern. Punters seem well on to this, Sour Mash (R5) and Romanus (R6) have both been heavily backed early on Luxbet!
Keep a big watch on the opening race for the two-year-olds, not just for how the track plays, but highly regarded filly Algulhas is making her debut after a strong trial win. And punters on aren’t about to miss the boat, backing her from $4.20 into $3.70, while in race three Malavio ($8.50 into $7.50) and Blue Lion ($6.50 into $5.50) have both attracted smart support at good odds!
• I’m hoping to have another Flemington day like last week when our two value selections Verdasco ($8.00) and Club Command ($5.00) saluted for a 40/1 double. Again, don’t be hamstrung by the weather! Mid-year in Melbourne is a good time to bet. Many above-average gallopers are aimed at the Winter Sprint and Championship series, trainers knowing well in advance they can get the conditions and opposition to suit. There’s been plenty of early fixed odds interest at Flemington, with There’s Only One (R5), Menados (R6) and Turner Bayou (R8) among the best backed!
Below is my weekly snap-shot of where to go, and where not to as we close in on another big race day:
TATT’S TIARA: GAI’S CHOICE:
Top win in Listed company last start at Ipswich, and I really like the quick back-up to a bigger and more suitable track. This is obviously her toughest test, with a significant rise in weight and class, but she’ll get a lovely run from an inside draw, and only needs luck to be in the finish!
BEST BET: EREWHON (Warwick Farm R4): Improves again from strong yard, and ready to strike now third run back from a spell at the ideal mile trip. Gets a lovely smother run from a midd le gate, and will pounce in the straight!
BEST VALUE: SEEK AND FIND (Eagle Farm R8):
I’m staggered this tough sprinter is at double figure odds, despite disappointing last start after chasing a hot speed. Gets a much softer run here from an inside gate over a longer trip, and is way over the odds!
BEST LAY: SHE’S A STALKER (Warwick Farm R2): Broke her maiden in dominant fashion at Canterbury on a heavy track, but now steps to Saturday class, up 2kgs in weight and drawn wide on an improving track. While this isn’t strong, she must be a risk at the price!
BEST BACKED @ Luxbet: MENADOS (Flemington R6): Promising four-year-old who carried a big weight to win at Sale after a top run at Flemington. Surely even better suited at the mile, and punters are convinced he’ll win again, supporting him heavily from $5.00 down to $4.20!
NEIL’S WARWICK FARM WOWZER:
R5: No 8 HARRY TRIMBOLE: Closed very nicely to just miss at Flemington last start and stable has sent him straight to Sydney for a longer assignment. Sensationally treated dropping 3.5kgs from that run, while favourite Sour Mash goes up 3kgs and has to do all the work from the front!
NEIL’S EAGLE-EYED FARM FABS:
R3: No 8 DUSTY GOLD: Strong run behind the high-class Solzhenitsyn two runs back, and hit the line hard under 56kgs to just miss at Doomben a month back. Has been waiting for a firmer and bigger surface, and gets both here over the perfect 1400m trip. One of my best bets all day!
R5: No 5 CARRY ME BLUEY: His run last start was much better than it looked on unsuitable heavy ground. Crying out for firming footing, and drops 1kg, and while there are some smart rivals here, he’s massive chance at a good price despite the wide gate!
R6: No 6 WAZN: Comes back from a solid effort in the G2 Brisbane Cup, and looks very well placed here with only 54.5kgs. Should lob in to the right spot, midfield with cover, and saved for one run. Popular with punters early and this looks his race!
R7: No. 12 FORFEITURE: Should have won at Scone when had no luck, and her run behind Red Tracer in unsuitable heavy ground last start was outstanding. Drawn the carpark, and probably a little out of her depth, but punters who like them long should have something small on at near $41.00!
NEIL’S FLEMINGTON FORAY:
R8: No 3 TURNER BAYOU: Lightly raced three-year-old who hit the line hard to win this track and trip last start. Bred to stay and he’s still on the rise, while many others have done their best, so grab the value price now!
BEST IN THE WEST (Belmont):
R2: No 3 PURE ADRENALIN: Expect: $8.00 My Rating: $4.65
R3: No 5 RAUCOUS LAUGHTER: Expect: $3.00 My Rating: $1.90
The improving weather and a return to spacious Eagle Farm should light up punters eyes on Tatt’s Tiara day, and as is nearly always the case across a Qld winter carnival, there’s value galore if you hit the nail on the head!
Certainly, early punters can bet with confidence. Big fields and genuine tempo, suggest most horses should get their chance, with those near the speed and back in the field all able to get into the fight. But again, expect the back-markers to play a bigger role as the day wears on!
• It’s a while since we’ve headed into a Sydney meeting with reasonable weather and a track well out of heavy range, yet tactics will be a giant key in most races at Warwick Farm.
Moderate-sized fields, with many chances, mean races like the third, sixth and last could all be chopping-and-changing affairs, so judging spe ed and finding the right position will be critical, especially if the track starts to play towards the middle which is usually the pattern. Punters seem well on to this, Sour Mash (R5) and Romanus (R6) have both been heavily backed early on Luxbet!
Keep a big watch on the opening race for the two-year-olds, not just for how the track plays, but highly regarded filly Algulhas is making her debut after a strong trial win. And punters on aren’t about to miss the boat, backing her from $4.20 into $3.70, while in race three Malavio ($8.50 into $7.50) and Blue Lion ($6.50 into $5.50) have both attracted smart support at good odds!
• I’m hoping to have another Flemington day like last week when our two value selections Verdasco ($8.00) and Club Command ($5.00) saluted for a 40/1 double. Again, don’t be hamstrung by the weather! Mid-year in Melbourne is a good time to bet. Many above-average gallopers are aimed at the Winter Sprint and Championship series, trainers knowing well in advance they can get the conditions and opposition to suit. There’s been plenty of early fixed odds interest at Flemington, with There’s Only One (R5), Menados (R6) and Turner Bayou (R8) among the best backed!
Below is my weekly snap-shot of where to go, and where not to as we close in on another big race day:
TATT’S TIARA: GAI’S CHOICE:
Top win in Listed company last start at Ipswich, and I really like the quick back-up to a bigger and more suitable track. This is obviously her toughest test, with a significant rise in weight and class, but she’ll get a lovely run from an inside draw, and only needs luck to be in the finish!
BEST BET: EREWHON (Warwick Farm R4): Improves again from strong yard, and ready to strike now third run back from a spell at the ideal mile trip. Gets a lovely smother run from a midd le gate, and will pounce in the straight!
BEST VALUE: SEEK AND FIND (Eagle Farm R8):
I’m staggered this tough sprinter is at double figure odds, despite disappointing last start after chasing a hot speed. Gets a much softer run here from an inside gate over a longer trip, and is way over the odds!
BEST LAY: SHE’S A STALKER (Warwick Farm R2): Broke her maiden in dominant fashion at Canterbury on a heavy track, but now steps to Saturday class, up 2kgs in weight and drawn wide on an improving track. While this isn’t strong, she must be a risk at the price!
BEST BACKED @ Luxbet: MENADOS (Flemington R6): Promising four-year-old who carried a big weight to win at Sale after a top run at Flemington. Surely even better suited at the mile, and punters are convinced he’ll win again, supporting him heavily from $5.00 down to $4.20!
NEIL’S WARWICK FARM WOWZER:
R5: No 8 HARRY TRIMBOLE: Closed very nicely to just miss at Flemington last start and stable has sent him straight to Sydney for a longer assignment. Sensationally treated dropping 3.5kgs from that run, while favourite Sour Mash goes up 3kgs and has to do all the work from the front!
NEIL’S EAGLE-EYED FARM FABS:
R3: No 8 DUSTY GOLD: Strong run behind the high-class Solzhenitsyn two runs back, and hit the line hard under 56kgs to just miss at Doomben a month back. Has been waiting for a firmer and bigger surface, and gets both here over the perfect 1400m trip. One of my best bets all day!
R5: No 5 CARRY ME BLUEY: His run last start was much better than it looked on unsuitable heavy ground. Crying out for firming footing, and drops 1kg, and while there are some smart rivals here, he’s massive chance at a good price despite the wide gate!
R6: No 6 WAZN: Comes back from a solid effort in the G2 Brisbane Cup, and looks very well placed here with only 54.5kgs. Should lob in to the right spot, midfield with cover, and saved for one run. Popular with punters early and this looks his race!
R7: No. 12 FORFEITURE: Should have won at Scone when had no luck, and her run behind Red Tracer in unsuitable heavy ground last start was outstanding. Drawn the carpark, and probably a little out of her depth, but punters who like them long should have something small on at near $41.00!
NEIL’S FLEMINGTON FORAY:
R8: No 3 TURNER BAYOU: Lightly raced three-year-old who hit the line hard to win this track and trip last start. Bred to stay and he’s still on the rise, while many others have done their best, so grab the value price now!
BEST IN THE WEST (Belmont):
R2: No 3 PURE ADRENALIN: Expect: $8.00 My Rating: $4.65
R3: No 5 RAUCOUS LAUGHTER: Expect: $3.00 My Rating: $1.90