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The following comments are courtesy of Neil Evans at Luxbet.
A Group 1 bonanza arrives at Caulfield where the weather and track may both have a say, while the record books – with More Joyous lumping 60kg in the Toorak and stablemate Pierro about to become the shortest-priced fancy in Guineas history – could end up having the final word!
It’s a combination day. Some heavily-backed short-priced favourites dominate, and punters will be queuing up to stake two, three and even four-leg multi bets. Yet in some far more open races, there’s value galore, but it won’t be easy to find.
Here a snap-shot of how I see the big day:
MY TOORAK TIP: MORE JOYOUS: I’m not overly concerned by the 60kg! She’s in terrific shape and drawn to sit right behind a moderate speed, and this is not a strong Toorak depth-wise. The moderate temp should suit, and she’s perfectly ready now for the mile third-up!
MY BEST BET: SNITZERLAND (Caul field R2): The class runner who is suited at the 1200m and beautifully drawn to park on the speed or just behind. And the 2kg pull she gets being the only filly in the field at the set weights makes her close to a good thing!
MY BEST VALUE BET: IRONSTEIN (Caulfield R8): Charged home last start without much room to fill a place in a Group 3 at Moonee Valley, and is even better placed here with same weight and up to 2400m fourth run in. Way over the odds!
MY BEST LAY: FLOOR SHOW (Rosehill R3): Won her last three, including impressive 1800m on-speed win at Randwick (Kensington) last start, but there’s far more depth and quality here. Slight weight rise and drawn out wide makes her way too short for me!
BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: SOLZHENITSYN (Caulfield R6): Talented Qld sprinter/miler who hit the line hard in Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke last start. Punters are convinced he’s the one to ups et More Joyous over the mile. Has been heavily backed from opening $7.00 into $4.50, and they’re still coming. Will jump shorter!
PIERRO (Caulfield R7): Outstanding unbeaten colt shooting for ninth straight win who has commanded more than 99 percent of the fixed odds market. Big punters have not stopped backing him from $1.35 pre-final field into $1.30 after the barrier draw and all the way down to $1.22. Will jump shorter on the day and be tied up in ever multi wager going!
My GROUP 1 ASSESMENTS
CAULFIELD STAKES: With Manighar out, it should be easy work for Kiwi star and odds-on favourite Ocean Park who has returned better than ever, and looks perfectly suited at weight-for-age third-up to the 2000m. Sincero has class but is a big query at the trip, so put in tough stayer Alcopop, who has been working to the line well, as the quinell a horse!
TOORAK HCP: Despite the history-making mare’s weight of 60kg, I keep coming back to More Joyous because of the lack of real depth this year. From the good draw, she can park right behind a moderate speed, and work into the race from the 600m. The heavily-backed Solzhenitsyn, with a huge pull in the weights and looking for the mile, is the logical danger and will be charging late. Yosei, fresh from a good Epsom run, completes the trifecta!
CAULFIELD GUINEAS: Unbeaten colt Pierro has hi-jacked the race, and would have to break down to lose. He’s been smashed by punters at super shorts odds, and his brilliant work leading up suggests he has the mile at his mercy. His constitution and “eye” are mind-blowing for a three-year-old, and it should be times and margins. I’m not convinced Epaulette will run a strong mile, so include the promising Awesome Bro and one-time champ All Too Hard, w ho will improve greatly, to fill the minor money!
NEIL’S CAULFIELD CRACKER:
R9: 14. SERENE STAR: Strong win at Mornington two runs back, then had no luck at Moonee Valley when charged late. While this is tougher at Listed level, drops 4.5kg to the limit 55kg, drawn nicely in the middle and won her only start at the track. Big chance at huge odds!
NEIL’S ROSEHILL RUMBLER:
R7: 2. FREE WHEELING: Usually fires fresh, and looked well prepared in a recent barrier trial win. Will settle back from a wide gate and come with one giant run, and this is the right trip first-up!
NEIL’S DOOMBEN DASHER:
R4: 4. THEFT: Won’t be a fancy price, but as name suggests could be “stealing” money. Very promising sprinter who won well first-up despite lumping big weight and covering ground. Drawn to get an easier run here and normally fires second-up . Top chance!
A Group 1 bonanza arrives at Caulfield where the weather and track may both have a say, while the record books – with More Joyous lumping 60kg in the Toorak and stablemate Pierro about to become the shortest-priced fancy in Guineas history – could end up having the final word!
It’s a combination day. Some heavily-backed short-priced favourites dominate, and punters will be queuing up to stake two, three and even four-leg multi bets. Yet in some far more open races, there’s value galore, but it won’t be easy to find.
Here a snap-shot of how I see the big day:
MY TOORAK TIP: MORE JOYOUS: I’m not overly concerned by the 60kg! She’s in terrific shape and drawn to sit right behind a moderate speed, and this is not a strong Toorak depth-wise. The moderate temp should suit, and she’s perfectly ready now for the mile third-up!
MY BEST BET: SNITZERLAND (Caul field R2): The class runner who is suited at the 1200m and beautifully drawn to park on the speed or just behind. And the 2kg pull she gets being the only filly in the field at the set weights makes her close to a good thing!
MY BEST VALUE BET: IRONSTEIN (Caulfield R8): Charged home last start without much room to fill a place in a Group 3 at Moonee Valley, and is even better placed here with same weight and up to 2400m fourth run in. Way over the odds!
MY BEST LAY: FLOOR SHOW (Rosehill R3): Won her last three, including impressive 1800m on-speed win at Randwick (Kensington) last start, but there’s far more depth and quality here. Slight weight rise and drawn out wide makes her way too short for me!
BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: SOLZHENITSYN (Caulfield R6): Talented Qld sprinter/miler who hit the line hard in Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke last start. Punters are convinced he’s the one to ups et More Joyous over the mile. Has been heavily backed from opening $7.00 into $4.50, and they’re still coming. Will jump shorter!
PIERRO (Caulfield R7): Outstanding unbeaten colt shooting for ninth straight win who has commanded more than 99 percent of the fixed odds market. Big punters have not stopped backing him from $1.35 pre-final field into $1.30 after the barrier draw and all the way down to $1.22. Will jump shorter on the day and be tied up in ever multi wager going!
My GROUP 1 ASSESMENTS
CAULFIELD STAKES: With Manighar out, it should be easy work for Kiwi star and odds-on favourite Ocean Park who has returned better than ever, and looks perfectly suited at weight-for-age third-up to the 2000m. Sincero has class but is a big query at the trip, so put in tough stayer Alcopop, who has been working to the line well, as the quinell a horse!
TOORAK HCP: Despite the history-making mare’s weight of 60kg, I keep coming back to More Joyous because of the lack of real depth this year. From the good draw, she can park right behind a moderate speed, and work into the race from the 600m. The heavily-backed Solzhenitsyn, with a huge pull in the weights and looking for the mile, is the logical danger and will be charging late. Yosei, fresh from a good Epsom run, completes the trifecta!
CAULFIELD GUINEAS: Unbeaten colt Pierro has hi-jacked the race, and would have to break down to lose. He’s been smashed by punters at super shorts odds, and his brilliant work leading up suggests he has the mile at his mercy. His constitution and “eye” are mind-blowing for a three-year-old, and it should be times and margins. I’m not convinced Epaulette will run a strong mile, so include the promising Awesome Bro and one-time champ All Too Hard, w ho will improve greatly, to fill the minor money!
NEIL’S CAULFIELD CRACKER:
R9: 14. SERENE STAR: Strong win at Mornington two runs back, then had no luck at Moonee Valley when charged late. While this is tougher at Listed level, drops 4.5kg to the limit 55kg, drawn nicely in the middle and won her only start at the track. Big chance at huge odds!
NEIL’S ROSEHILL RUMBLER:
R7: 2. FREE WHEELING: Usually fires fresh, and looked well prepared in a recent barrier trial win. Will settle back from a wide gate and come with one giant run, and this is the right trip first-up!
NEIL’S DOOMBEN DASHER:
R4: 4. THEFT: Won’t be a fancy price, but as name suggests could be “stealing” money. Very promising sprinter who won well first-up despite lumping big weight and covering ground. Drawn to get an easier run here and normally fires second-up . Top chance!