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For those who are interested, I've just seen a good preview of Game 1 of the NBA Finals by Sports Insights. Basically the article suggests taking Golden State -5.5 and under 204 points.
The main takeaways from the article are:
Line betting
1. The Warriors opened as 5.5-point favorites and are currently receiving just 40% of spread bets.
2. Since 2005, favorites receiving less than 40% of spread bets have gone 82-56 ATS (+21.47 units won)
3. Teams receiving less than 49% of spread bets have gone 31-24 ATS
4. Teams receiving less than 45% of spread bets have gone 23-13 ATS
5. Teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets have gone 9-4 ATS
Totals betting
1. 76% of bettors were taking the over 204 points - despite this the total hasn't shifted upwards, which suggests bookmakers are fearful of smart money coming in on the under
2. Playoff unders have gone 466-440 (+1.03 units won) over the past decade, including a 31-25 record during the NBA Finals
3. The unders win record improves to 251-221 (+15.84 units won) when the total closes at 190 or higher, including a 15-12 mark during the Finals
Anyway, let's hope the NBA Finals are better than the Conference Finals!
The main takeaways from the article are:
Line betting
1. The Warriors opened as 5.5-point favorites and are currently receiving just 40% of spread bets.
2. Since 2005, favorites receiving less than 40% of spread bets have gone 82-56 ATS (+21.47 units won)
3. Teams receiving less than 49% of spread bets have gone 31-24 ATS
4. Teams receiving less than 45% of spread bets have gone 23-13 ATS
5. Teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets have gone 9-4 ATS
Totals betting
1. 76% of bettors were taking the over 204 points - despite this the total hasn't shifted upwards, which suggests bookmakers are fearful of smart money coming in on the under
2. Playoff unders have gone 466-440 (+1.03 units won) over the past decade, including a 31-25 record during the NBA Finals
3. The unders win record improves to 251-221 (+15.84 units won) when the total closes at 190 or higher, including a 15-12 mark during the Finals
Anyway, let's hope the NBA Finals are better than the Conference Finals!