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  1. #1
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    Aug 2011
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    2015 Manikato Stakes Preview

    The Betfair Insider (who has a 48.7% ROI since August 22) has published a preview of the 2015 Manikato Stakes (Moonee Valley Race 7 - Friday the 23rd of October) here.

    Here are some key exerpts:

    Profiling the race we learn the following:
    - 3 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
    - 4 of past 5 winners 2nd or 3rd up
    - 2 of past 5 winners last start winners
    - 1 of past 5 winners a Mare




    Major Players


    Buffering – Last start winner of G1 Moir Stakes 1st up over 1000m 3 weeks ago. Runner up Ball Of Muscle has failed since then but suspect he’d come to the end of his preparation more than anything. He’s drawn a similar gate and he’ll sit outside Rich Enuff on speed. His Moonee Valley record is impressive 10 starts 5 wins 1 second 1 third. Won 11 and Placed 11 times of 31 starts at 1200m. Ran Lankan Rupee to 0.6 lengths in this race last year, $8-9 in early markets looks close to his right price.


    Chautauqua – Unbeaten this preparation winning the G2 McEwen Stakes at Moonee Valley 1st up and G2 Gilgai Stakes at Flemington 2nd up. His splits in the Gilgai suggest he’s close to career best form running home his last 600 32.85 400 21.96 200 11.40. Without doubt he’s more suited to a straight track given his running pattern but his first up win here was enough to suggest only bad luck will beat him here. Should trade $2.50 but will firm late.


    Terravista – Trialled well before his 1st up win in the G2 Premiere Stakes at Randwick defeating Rebel Dane by 0.3 lengths. Seemed to peak on his run 50m from home but closing sectionals good, last 600 33.55 400 22.44 200 11.84. Has drawn barrier 1 so expecting James McDonald to hold the fence and box seat. Beaten under half a length in this race last year and don’t think there’s much between him and Chautauqua.


    Rebel Dane – Strong win 1st up in the G2 Shorts over 1100m at Randwick. Followed up with a brave 2nd to Terravista in the Premiere stakes when taking ground of the winner late last 600 33.84 400 22.60 200 11.64. Has placed once in four starts at the valley. Needs everything to go right to win but will be hitting the line strongly.


    Srikandi – Lightly raced mare that has overcome hoof issues to become a dual G1 winner. Has been set for this since the Brisbane winter carnival and her two trials suggest she’s on track to be competitive here. Barrier 10 is a big concern and she’s likely to drift heavily early markets from $7.00 to a likely SP of $10+.

    Betting tip:


    BACK – WIN – Terravista – I’ve rated him closer to $4. $6 in early markets represents good value. I expect him to trade odds on ‘In Play’ opening up a Back to Lay opportunity.

 

 

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