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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2011

    Norm Smith Medal - Darren Jolly injury sees money come for Brad Ottens

    Punters have backed Geelong from $2.05 to $1.87 to win the AFL Grand Final and have also launched a plunge on ruckmen Brad Ottens to win the Norm Smith Medal.

    Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said 90% of the money had been for the Cats this week while the injury doubt over Darren Jolly had seen punters single out Ottens as the value pick for best on ground.

    “We have seen bets of $10,000 and $5000 flow in regularly for the Cats and there hasn’t been a single good sized bet placed on Collingwood yet who have drifted from $1.75 to $1.97,” Sullivan said.

    “Brad Ottens has clearly been best backed for the Norm Smith Medal shortening from $41 to $26 and money is still coming for him.

    “Punters obviously feel he could dominate the ruck if Jolly is out or not at 100% and the fact he can go forward and kick a couple of goals is also a big plus.”

    “At this stage, Ottens is taking out four times more than any other player with the next best backed being fellow Cat, James Kelly.”

    Scott Pendlebury heads Sportingbet’s Norm Smith market at $5.00 ahead of Brownlow winner, Dane Swan at $6.50 with Joel Selwood the shortest of the Cats at $8.00.

    Sportingbet Australia market

    Geelong $1.85
    Collingwood $1.97

    2011 Norm Smith Medal Winner
    Sportingbet Australia market

    Scott Pendlebury (COLL) 5.00
    Dane Swan (COLL) 6.50
    Joel Selwood (GEEL) 8.00
    Dale Thomas (COLL) 10.00
    Jimmy Bartel (GEEL) 10.00
    Travis Cloke (COLL) 13.00
    Leon Davis (COLL) 13.00
    Paul Chapman (GEEL) 13.00
    Heath Shaw (COLL) 15.00
    Steve Johnson (GEEL) 17.00
    Joel Corey (GEEL) 17.00
    James Kelly (GEEL) 17.00
    Alan Didak (COLL) 21.00
    Luke Ball (COLL) 26.00
    Harry Obrien (COLL) 26.00
    Brad Ottens (GEEL) 26.00
    Andrew Krakouer (COLL) 26.00

  2. #2
    Early thoughts are to get on the Pies with Centrebet @ 2.07
    And Dane Swan for Norm Smith with a few @ 7.50

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Interesting with Ottens, he's shortened to 15.00 odds elsewhere.

    How often has the Norm Smith gone to a player on the winning team? You could either pick a side and then back a likely candidate from that team, or you could hedge yourself, say by backing Geelong to win and then Pendlebury & Swan for the Norm Smith.

    Based on recent form and their most recent head to head result, Geelong at 1.80 look a good bet, but if the Pies can get their act together then I wouldn't want to have my money against them.

    I may wait and see because the odds have moved around a fair bit this week.

    Should be a cracking final.

  4. #4
    33 Norm Smith Medals have been awarded. Only 4 times has a member of the losing team won it. This has happened most recently with Nathan Buckley in 2002 and Chris Judd in 2005.

  5. #5
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    33 Norm Smith Medals have been awarded. Only 4 times has a member of the losing team won it.
    Thanks for that stat! Hmmmm. If it's a close game then my hedging strategy could go out the window, but the history shows I'd be unlucky if it didn't work. Something to think about..




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