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  1. #1
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    Aug 2011
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    Victoria Derby Day Preview

    Below are selected previews for Derby Day on October 29th from the traders at IASbet.

    Flemington Race 5 – Longines Mackinnon Stakes

    The Mackinnon Stakes is a very good race with plenty of chances. Efficient ($8.50) is on top. He’s back to his favourite track and ran very well in the Cox Plate. Rekindled Interest ($4.00) was unlucky last week and if he gets a little bit of luck here he’s sure to be in the finish again. Glass Harmonium ($7.50) missed the start in the Cox Plate, but if he jumps well he should be able to take the lead and dictate the race. He pushed December Draw in the Turnbull over same track and distance. Foreteller ($9.00) is the new horse on the scene. He bolted in at Caulfield, given his racing style he might need a touch of luck from the inside draw but can race well again.

    Flemington Race 6 – Aami Victoria Derby
    Induna ($5.00) was a late entry for the race, but on his massive win at Geelong, appears to be money well spent. He appears to be the best genuine stayer in the race. Can’t knock Manawanui ($2.50) on his form, and he’s the deserved favourite. He has been up for a while now, and must be some questions as to whether he’ll run a strong 2,500m. Collar ($13.00) looks well suited by the longer journey and is drawn to get the perfect run. Sangster ($13.00) took off too early at Caulfield but showed he’s an each way chance in this. Niagara ($8.50) was unlucky at Caulfield and will have the task again from his wide barrier.

    Flemington Race 8 – Seppelt Salinger Stakes
    Usual raffle here down the straight. Tipping Stirling Grove ($7.00) on top. He looks a great each way chance on his last run behind Black Caviar and he drops 6.5kg for this. He’s unbeaten down the straight. Mid Summer Music ($6.00) also has good form behind Black Caviar and cannot be left out of calculations here, she’s ultra-consistent. Sister Madly ($4.00) is racing well. She drops in weight for this but is back in distance which is a slight concern. Straight specialist Temple Of Boom ($7.00) will be suited again if there is sting out of the ground.

  2. #2
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    907
    Here are tips on every Derby Day race from the traders at Sportsbet.

    Race 1: Carbine Club Stakes
    A weak race to start proceedings with only two genuine chances. Who’ll Win: Galah Outstanding win at Caulfield and looks too talented.
    Who Won’t: Cross Of Gold Been disappointing last two runs.

    Big Danger: Meethaq Tricky alley but very impressive last start.

    Race 2:
    The Lexus Stakes
    A good betting race with some still trying to qualify for the Melbourne Cup.

    Who’ll Win: Green Moon Huge run in Caulfield Cup and better drawn here.
    Who Won’t: Tullamore Just running around in preparation for Tuesday.
    Big Danger: Niwot Working towards a win and has good form at Flemington.
    Roughie: Macedonian Finding the line well and also likes Flemington.

    Race 3:
    Wakeful Stakes
    It’s 18 years since a filly won the Wakeful with a penalty, but she will do it here.

    Who’ll Win: Atlantic Jewel Superstar who will have no trouble with the 2000 metres.
    Who Won’t: Pane In The Glass A query over whether she can run the trip.
    Big Danger: Dowager Queen Will get a good run and be suited to bigger track than Caulfield.
    Roughie: Bliss Street Drops 4kg on good run last week.

    Race 4: Coolmore Stud Stakes

    Another short priced superstar, another win for Sepoy.

    Who’ll Win: Sepoy Back against own age and at same weights. Will win.
    Who Won’t: Foxwedge nowhere near the favourite.
    Danger: Hot Snitzel Terrific first up in Sydney and still has some upside.
    Roughie: Bear Hero Talented sprinter from Hong Kong who has straight track form.

    Race 5 : Mackinnon Stakes

    Good race with many chances although no speed on up front.

    Who’ll Win: Efficient Went well in Cox Plate although too early. Loves Flemington.
    Who Won’t: Southern Speed Up in weight from Caulfied Cup win and won’t get cosy run again.
    Big Danger : Rekindled Interest Should have won Cox Plate and just needs a change of luck.
    Roughie: Sincero Better suited to Flemington and gets a positive jockey change.

    Race 6: Victoria Derby

    Excellent race with form coming from all directions.

    Who’ll Win: Induna Flew when winning at Geelong and will stay the 2500 metres.
    Who Won’t: Niagara Drawn a horrible barrier.
    Big Danger: Manawanui Well drawn and relaxed well in the Vase so should get trip.
    Roughie: Collar From right from race and can stay. Good each way bet.

    Race 7 : The Myer Classic

    An intriguing race that revolves around another star in More Joyous.

    Who’ll Win: More Joyous Not at her absolute best, but if right still the one to beat.
    Who Won’t: Sacred Choice Won last year but that was on a very heavy track. Not here.
    Big Danger: Mosheen In form jockey and will carry no weight on her back.
    Roughie: Skyerush Flying in Sydney and is the new blood in the form.


    Race 8: Salinger Stakes

    As always the Salinger is a raffle down the straight.

    Who’ll Win: Stirling Grove Unbeaten straight and form around Black Caviar/Karuta Queen.
    Who Won’t: Neeson Never raced down the straight.
    Big Danger: Sister Madly Drops in weight and is flying for new stable.
    Roughie: Catapulted Has form down straight behind Hay List.

    Race 9 : ‘The Opposition” Stakes

    Good race with genuine speed on up front which could suit the swoopers.

    Who’ll Win: Doubtful Jack Will get perfect run behind leaders and is 2/2 track and distance.
    Who Won’t: Launay Not good enough to beat these.
    Big Danger: Thankgodyou’rehere Forget last run. Blinkers and Oliver should help.
    Roughie:Rothera Suited by speed and will appreciate sting out of the ground.

  3. #3
    Thanks for providing some great insights! I haven't had a proper look yet, but my 'roughie' for the day is Goon Serpent for a place in the Myer Classic @ 7.00 the place. Slashing fourth last start at Caufield from a wide barrier, coming from last at the turn. He's drawn very nicely in gate 7 for this one and is worth a look.

 

 

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