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  1. #1
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    2014 Brownlow Medal

    AFL ROUND 1: SPORTINGBET’S AFL ANALYSTS GIVE 3 POINTS TO ABLETT, WATSON AND LE CRAS

    Sportingbet’s AFL analysts have awarded three points to Gary Ablett, Jobe Watson and Mark Le Cras following the completion of Round 1 of the AFL.
    Five players received 2.5 points according to Sportingbet, including Port Adelaide’s Oliver Wines and Justin Westhoff.
    “When we can’t split certain performances we award half points that balance out over the course of a season. This system has proven to provide us with a more accurate prediction of a player’s final vote numbers,” Sportingbet’s Andrew Brown said.


    2014 Brownlow Medal - Sportingbet Market

    Points according to Sportingbet’s AFL analysts.

    Player Rnd 1 votes Total votes Sportingbet odds
    Jobe Watson [ESS] 3 3 $9.00
    Gary Ablett [GC] 3 3 $5.00
    Mark Le Cras [WCE] 3 3 $151.00
    Joel Selwood [GEE] 2.5 2.5 $9.00
    Callan Ward [GWS] 2.5 2.5 $67.00
    Oliver Wines [PTA] 2.5 2.5 $81.00
    Justin Westhoff [PTA] 2.5 2.5 $101.00
    Clinton Jones [STK] 2.5 2.5 $201.00
    Nathan Fyfe [FRE] 2 2 $9.00
    Aaron Sandilands [FRE] 2 2 $34.00
    Steve Johnson [GEE] 2 2 $17.00
    Nick Riewoldt [STK] 2 2 $151.00
    Dyson Heppell [ESS] 1.5 1.5 $41.00
    Michael Barlow [FRE] 1.5 1.5 $21.00
    Jimmy Bartel [GEE] 1.5 1.5 $151.00
    Stephen Coniglio [GWS] 1.5 1.5 $151.00
    Adam Treloar [GWS] 1.5 1.5 $151.00
    Grant Birchall [HAW] 1.5 1.5 $251.00
    Luke Breust [HAW] 1.5 1.5 $151.00
    Liam Shiels [HAW] 1.5 1.5 $151.00
    Nathan Jones [MEL] 1.5 1.5 $151.00
    Brendon Goddard [ESS] 1 1 $101.00
    Dion Prestia [GC] 1 1 $101.00
    Isaac Smith [HAW] 1 1 $251.00
    Scott Selwood [WCE] 1 1 $51.00
    Matthew Priddis [WCE] 1 1 $41.00

  2. #2
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    AFL ROUND 2: SPORTINGBET’S AFL ANALYSTS GIVE 3 VOTES TO JOHNSON, RIEWOLDT, PENDLEBURY AND HARVEY

    Sportingbet’s AFL analysts have awarded a maximum three votes to Geelong’s Steve Johnson, St Kilda’s Nick Riewoldt, Collingwood’s Scott Pendlebury and North Melbourne’s Brent Harvey for their performances in Round 2 of the AFL.

    After two rounds, Johnson and Riewoldt are equal joint leaders on 5 votes, according to Sportingbet.

    “Johnson surprised everyone when he polled 25 votes as an ineligible player last year and if he can maintain his current form he’s a massive chance at healthy odds,” Sportingbet’s Andrew Brown said.

    Port Adelaide’s Hamish Hartlett received 2.5 votes from Sportingbet’s analysts for his Showdown medal winning performance against Adelaide.

    Sportingbet’s analysts award half votes when they can’t split certain performances, a system that has proven to balance out over the course of the season and provide a more accurate prediction of a player’s final vote numbers.

    2014 Brownlow Medal - Sportingbet Market
    Points according to Sportingbet’s AFL analysts.


    Player Team Round 2 Votes Total Votes Odds
    Steve Johnson [GEE] GEE 3 5 $15.00
    Nick Riewoldt [STK] STK 3 5 $81.00
    Jobe Watson [ESS] ESS 1.5 4.5 $7.00
    Joel Selwood [GEE] GEE 1 3.5 $9.00
    Oliver Wines [PTA] PTA 1 3.5 $67.00
    Nathan Fyfe [FRE] FRE 1.5 3.5 $10.00
    Michael Barlow [FRE] FRE 2 3.5 $23.00
    Gary Ablett [GC] GC - 3 $6.00
    Mark Le Cras [WCE] WCE - 3 $151.00
    Scott Pendlebury [COL] COL 3 3 $10.00
    Brent Harvey [NTH] NTH 3 3 $81.00
    Callan Ward [GWS] GWS - 2.5 $81.00
    Justin Westhoff [PTA] PTA - 2.5 $101.00
    Clinton Jones [STK] STK - 2.5 $201.00
    Aaron Sandilands [FRE] FRE 0.5 2.5 $34.00
    Hamish Hartlett [PTA] PTA 2.5 2.5 $101.00
    Brendon Goddard [ESS] ESS 1 2 $101.00
    Trent Cotchin [RIC] RIC 1.5 2 $17.00
    Marc Murphy [CAR] CAR 2 2 $41.00
    David Mundy [FRE] FRE 2 2 $34.00
    Shaun Burgoyne [HAW] HAW 2 2 $101.00
    Nick Dal Santo [NTH] NTH 2 2 $81.00
    Luke Shuey [WCE] WCE 2 2 $67.00

  3. #3
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    Sportingbet’s AFL analysts have awarded a maximum three votes to Gold Coast’s Gary Ablett and Adam Treloar from GWS for their performances in Round 3 of the AFL.

    After three rounds, Ablett and Geelong’s Joel Selwood are on top with 6 votes apiece.

    “We gave Ablett three votes for his 38 disposals, 10 tackles and 3 goal effort against the Lions and Treloar got the maximum for his 33 disposals, 14 tackles and a goal against the Demons,” Sportingbet’s Andrew Brown said.

    “It’s early days but already the usual suspects and pre-season favourites are establishing themselves as Brownlow contenders.”

    Selwood received 2.5 votes from Sportingbet’s analysts along with Luke Parker, Jack Macrae and Tom Liberatore.

    Sportingbet’s analysts award half votes when they can’t split certain performances, a system that has proven to balance out over the course of the season and provide a more accurate prediction of a player’s final vote numbers.


    2014 Brownlow Medal - Sportingbet Market


    Player Team Round 3 Votes Total Sportingbet Odds
    Joel Selwood [GEE] GEE 2.5 6 $7.00
    Gary Ablett [GC] GC 3 6 $4.00
    Steve Johnson [GEE] GEE 0 5 $15.00
    Nick Riewoldt [STK] STK 0 5 $81.00
    Jobe Watson [ESS] ESS 0 4.5 $9.00
    Adam Treloar [GWS] GWS 3 4.5 $101.00
    Brent Harvey [NTH] NTH 1 4 $67.00
    Oliver Wines [PTA] PTA 0 3.5 $67.00
    Nathan Fyfe [FRE] FRE 0 3.5 Ineligible
    Michael Barlow [FRE] FRE 0 3.5 $51.00
    Callan Ward [GWS] GWS 1 3.5 $101.00
    Brendon Goddard [ESS] ESS 1.5 3.5 $67.00
    Nick Dal Santo [NTH] NTH 1.5 3.5 $67.00
    Matthew Priddis [WCE] WCE 2 3.5 $41.00
    Devon Smith [GWS] GWS 2 3.5 $251.00
    Mark Le Cras [WCE] WCE 0 3 $251.00
    Scott Pendlebury [COL] COL 0 3 $11.00
    Trent Cotchin [RIC] RIC 1 3 $14.00
    Justin Westhoff [PTA] PTA 0 2.5 $151.00
    Clinton Jones [STK] STK 0 2.5 $201.00
    Aaron Sandilands [FRE] FRE 0 2.5 $21.00
    Hamish Hartlett [PTA] PTA 0 2.5 $101.00
    Isaac Smith [HAW] HAW 1.5 2.5 $151.00
    Paul Chapman [ESS] ESS 2 2.5 $151.00
    Luke Parker [SYD] SYD 2.5 2.5 $151.00
    Jack Macrae [WBU] WBU 2.5 2.5 $101.00
    Tom Liberatore [WBU] WBU 2.5 2.5 $34.00

  4. #4
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    According to Sportingbet’s AFL analysts, not one player was worthy of the maximum three Brownlow votes in Round 4 of the AFL.

    Nine players received 2.5 votes from Sportingbet’s analysts, including Scott Pendlebury, Dayne Beams, Nathan Jones, Travis Boak, Brad Ebert, Sam Mitchell, Jack Gunston, Ben Cunnington and Rory Sloane.

    After four rounds, Joel Selwood is leading on 8 votes with Steve Johnson on 7 and Gary Ablett on 6, according to Sportingbet.

    Sportingbet’s analysts award half votes when they can’t split certain performances, a system that has proven to balance out over the course of the season and provide a more accurate prediction of a player’s final vote numbers.

    Please find below Sportingbet’s running Brownlow Medal votes tally along with an updated list of odds.


    2014 Brownlow Medal
    Votes according to Sportingbet’s AFL analysts.

    Player Team Round 4 Votes Total Odds
    Joel Selwood [GEE] GEE 2 8 $6.00
    Steve Johnson [GEE] GEE 2 7 $11.00
    Gary Ablett [GC] GC 0 6 $5.00
    Scott Pendlebury [COL] COL 2.5 5.5 $7.00
    Nick Riewoldt [STK] STK 0 5 $81.00
    Jobe Watson [ESS] ESS 0 4.5 $10.00
    Adam Treloar [GWS] GWS 0 4.5 $101.00
    Sam Mitchell [HAW] HAW 2.5 4.5 $15.00
    Jack Macrae [WBU] WBU 2 4.5 $81.00
    Dayne Beams [COL] COL 2.5 4 $23.00
    Nathan Jones [MEL] MEL 2.5 4 $151.00
    Brent Harvey [NTH] NTH 0 4 $67.00
    Ben Cunnington [NTH] NTH 2.5 4 $101.00
    Brendon Goddard [ESS] ESS 0 3.5 $81.00
    Nathan Fyfe [FRE] FRE 0 3.5 Ineligible
    Michael Barlow [FRE] FRE 0 3.5 $67.00
    Aaron Sandilands [FRE] FRE 1 3.5 $17.00
    Callan Ward [GWS] GWS 0 3.5 $101.00
    Devon Smith [GWS] GWS 0 3.5 Ineligible
    Nick Dal Santo [NTH] NTH 0 3.5 $67.00
    Oliver Wines [PTA] PTA 0 3.5 $67.00
    Brad Ebert [PTA] PTA 2.5 3.5 $101.00
    Matthew Priddis [WCE] WCE 0 3.5 $51.00

  5. #5
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    According to Sportingbet’s AFL analysts, four players received maximum Brownlow Medal votes for their Round 5 performances.

    Trent Cotchin, Patrick Dangerfield, Gary Ablett and Steve Johnson all picked up the three votes.

    After five rounds Sportingbet has Johnson on top with 10 votes and in front of Ablett (9 votes), Joel Selwood (8 votes) and Nick Riewoldt (7.5 votes).

    “Johnson has polled in four of his opening five games and looks on target to surpass the 25 votes he finished on last year,” Sportingbet’s Andrew Brown said.

    Johnson has firmed from $21 into $8 to win the 2014 Brownlow Medal since the start of the season, and is a fourth favourite behind Ablett ($4), Selwood ($6) and Pendlebury ($7.50).

    Sportingbet’s analysts award half votes when they can’t split certain performances, a system that has proven to balance out over the course of the season and provide a more accurate prediction of a player’s final vote numbers.

    2014 Brownlow Medal
    Votes according to Sportingbet’s AFL analysts.

    Player Team Round 5 Votes Overall Odds
    Steve Johnson [GEE] GEE 3 10 $8.00
    Gary Ablett [GC] GC 3 9 $4.00
    Joel Selwood [GEE] GEE 0 8 $6.00
    Nick Riewoldt [STK] STK 2.5 7.5 $34.00
    Scott Pendlebury [COL] COL 1 6.5 $7.50
    Nathan Jones [MEL] MEL 2 6 $81.00
    Trent Cotchin [RIC] RIC 3 6 $13.00
    Dayne Beams [COL] COL 1.5 5.5 $23.00
    Brad Ebert [PTA] PTA 2 5.5 $81.00
    Marc Murphy [CAR] CAR 2.5 4.5 $81.00
    Jobe Watson [ESS] ESS 0 4.5 $11.00
    Adam Treloar [GWS] GWS 0 4.5 $151.00
    Sam Mitchell [HAW] HAW 0 4.5 $17.00
    Jack Macrae [WBU] WBU 0 4.5 $101.00
    Scott Thompson [ADE] ADE 2 4 $101.00
    Brent Harvey [NTH] NTH 0 4 $81.00
    Ben Cunnington [NTH] NTH 0 4 $67.00
    Josh Kennedy [SYD] SYD 2.5 4 $51.00
    Matthew Priddis [WCE] WCE 0.5 4 $51.00

  6. #6
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    Sportingbet’s AFL analysts failed to award maximum Brownlow Medal votes to any player in Round 6, but a record eight players received 2.5 votes.

    Sportingbet’s analysts award half votes when they can’t split certain performances, a system that has proven to balance out over the course of the season and provide a more accurate prediction of a player’s final vote numbers.

    Dane Swan, Leigh Montagna, Gary Ablett, Marc Murphy, Dan Hannebery, Patrick Dangerfield, Sam Mitchell and Travis Boak all received 2.5 votes from Sportingbet.

    After six rounds, Sportingbet has Ablett on top with 11.5 votes and in front of Steve Johnson (10 votes) and Joel Selwood (8 votes).

    Sportingbet’s analysts believe the pressure should ease on Marc Murphy, who has polled 7 votes despite his team’s poor start to the season.

    2014 Brownlow Medal
    Votes according to Sportingbet’s AFL analysts.

    Player Team Round 6 Votes Overall Odds
    Gary Ablett [GC] GC 2.5 11.5 $3.00
    Steve Johnson [GEE] GEE 0 10 $8.00
    Joel Selwood [GEE] GEE 0 8 $7.00
    Scott Pendlebury [COL] COL 1 7.5 $8.00
    Nick Riewoldt [STK] STK 0 7.5 $34.00
    Marc Murphy [CAR] CAR 2.5 7 $26.00
    Sam Mitchell [HAW] HAW 2.5 7 $12.00
    Nathan Jones [MEL] MEL 1 7 $67.00
    Brad Ebert [PTA] PTA 1.5 7 $51.00
    Dayne Beams [COL] COL 1 6.5 $17.00
    Trent Cotchin [RIC] RIC 0 6 $15.00
    Matthew Priddis [WCE] WCE 2 6 $41.00
    Patrick Dangerfield [ADE] ADE 2.5 5.5 $12.00
    Nathan Fyfe [FRE] FRE 2 5.5 Ineligible
    Brent Harvey [NTH] NTH 1.5 5.5 $51.00
    Josh Kennedy [SYD] SYD 1.5 5.5 $34.00
    Nick Dal Santo [NTH] NTH 1.5 5 $51.00
    Travis Boak [PTA] PTA 2.5 5 $26.00
    Jobe Watson [ESS] ESS 0 4.5 $17.00
    Adam Treloar [GWS] GWS 0 4.5 $151.00
    Leigh Montagna [STK] STK 2.5 4.5 $67.00
    Jack Macrae [WBU] WBU 0 4.5 $101.00

  7. #7
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    Here are the votes according to Sportingbet's AFL analysts after Round 8. They awarded maximum votes to Jobe Watson, Tom Liberatore and West Coast’s Josh Kennedy for their impressive round 8 performances.

    Swans Daniel Hannebery and Josh Kennedy couldn’t be split by the team, with each player receiving 2.5 votes for their part in Sydney’s hard-fought win over Hawthorn.

    Sydney’s Kennedy, a 14.00 odds chance at Sportingbet for the Brownlow, is now estimated to have amassed 10 Brownlow votes, which puts him in outright third spot behind Gary Ablett on 14.5 votes and Steve Johnson on 12.5 votes.

    Player Team Round 8 Votes Overall Odds
    Gary Ablett [GC] GC 0 14.5 $2.75
    Steve Johnson [GEE] GEE 0 12.5 $7.00
    Josh Kennedy [SYD] SYD 2.5 10 $14.00
    Joel Selwood [GEE] GEE 0 8 $11.00
    Scott Pendlebury [COL] COL 0 8 $11.00
    Dayne Beams [COL] COL 0 8 $15.00
    Marc Murphy [CAR] CAR 0 8 $34.00
    Nick Riewoldt [STK] STK 0 7.5 $67.00
    Jobe Watson [ESS] ESS 3 7.5 $14.00
    Sam Mitchell [HAW] HAW 0 7 $51.00
    Nathan Jones [MEL] MEL 0 7 $67.00
    Brad Ebert [PTA] PTA 0 7 $51.00
    Nathan Fyfe [FRE] FRE 1 7 Ineligible
    Patrick Dangerfield [ADE] ADE 0 6.5 $17.00
    Daniel Hannebery [SYD] SYD 2.5 6.5 $23.00
    Tom Liberatore [WBU] WBU 3 6.5 $34.00
    Trent Cotchin [RIC] RIC 0 6 $26.00
    Matthew Priddis [WCE] WCE 0 6 $51.00
    Aaron Sandilands [FRE] FRE 0 6 $23.00
    Brent Harvey [NTH] NTH 0 5.5 $51.00

  8. #8
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    Sydney’s Josh Kennedy is the biggest mover in betting on the 2014 Brownlow Medal winner following Round 9 of the AFL.

    Kennedy has moved from $14 into $8 outright second favouritism behind Gary Ablett ($2.25) after another impressive performance in the Swans’ 50 point win over Essendon.

    Sportingbet’s AFL analysts awarded Kennedy the maximum three votes, which puts him on 13 votes for the season and an estimated 4 to 5 votes behind Ablett.

    Ablett, Patrick Dangerfield and Brent Harvey were also awarded 3 votes by Sportingbet’s analysts for their Round 9 performances.

    Sportingbet’s analysts award half votes when they can’t split certain performances, a system that has proven to balance out over the course of the season and provide a more accurate prediction of a player’s final vote numbers.

    Player Team Round 9 Overall Odds
    Gary Ablett [GC] GC 3 17.5 $2.25
    Josh Kennedy [SYD] SYD 3 13 $8.00
    Steve Johnson [GEE] GEE 0 12.5 $10.00
    Joel Selwood [GEE] GEE 1.5 9.5 $10.00
    Patrick Dangerfield [ADE] ADE 3 9.5 $10.00
    Scott Pendlebury [COL] COL 1 9 $11.00
    Nathan Jones [MEL] MEL 2 9 $51.00
    Nathan Fyfe [FRE] FRE 1.5 8.5 Ineligible
    Aaron Sandilands [FRE] FRE 2.5 8.5 $17.00
    Brent Harvey [NTH] NTH 3 8.5 $51.00
    Dayne Beams [COL] COL 0 8 $21.00
    Marc Murphy [CAR] CAR 0 8 $34.00
    Nick Riewoldt [STK] STK 0 7.5 $67.00
    Jobe Watson [ESS] ESS 0 7.5 $17.00
    Sam Mitchell [HAW] HAW 0 7 $67.00
    Brad Ebert [PTA] PTA 0 7 $67.00
    Nick Dal Santo [NTH] NTH 2 7 $51.00
    Daniel Hannebery [SYD] SYD 0 6.5 $26.00
    Tom Liberatore [WBU] WBU 0 6.5 $34.00

  9. #9
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    Robbie Gray All Day For Top 5
    $2 @ Sportingbet Looks A Beauty

  10. #10
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    I think it's simply too hard to go past Selwood to win since Ablett's injury in Round 16.

  11. #11
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    Below are the latest details from Sportingbet regarding the Brownlow medal market.

    Current Sportingbet odds Opening Sportingbet odds Highest Sportingbet odds Notable bets
    Joel Selwood $2.75 $10 $21 $1,000 @ $11 - Jul 18
    $5,000 @ $5 – Apr 14
    Gary Ablett $4 $7 $7 $60,000 @ $2.05 May 22
    Robbie Gray $6 $251 $251 $100 @ $201 – May 7
    $125 @ $101 – Jul 11
    Josh Kennedy $10 $31 $67 $520 @ $10 – Aug 18
    Jordan Lewis $11 $201 $201 $3,000 @ $31 – Aug 20
    Matt Priddis $14 $51 $51 $200 @ $51 – Apr 3
    Dyson Heppell $15 $51 $101 $1000 @ $51 – Aug 5
    Scott Pendlebury $16 $13 $16 $1000 @ $14 – Feb 16
    Lance Franklin $16 $51 $81 $1000 @ $12 – Aug 27
    Trent Cotchin $34 $15 $34 $1000 @ $18 – Jul 12
    $500 @ $34 – Sep 1

    Below are Sportingbet's own vote predictions. Their analysts awarded half votes when they couldn't split certain player performances.

    Player 2014 overall
    total votes
    Odds
    Joel Selwood [GEE] 25 $2.75
    Nathan Fyfe [FRE] 24.5 Ineligible
    Gary Ablett [GC] 24.5 $4
    Josh Kennedy [SYD] 21 $10
    Matthew Priddis [WCE] 20 $14
    Scott Pendlebury [COL] 19.5 $16
    Steve Johnson [GEE] 19 Ineligible
    Lance Franklin [SYD] 19 $16
    Robbie Gray [PTA] 19 $6
    Trent Cotchin [RIC] 18 $34
    Rory Sloane [ADE] 17.5 $81
    Jordan Lewis [HAW] 16.5 $11
    Dayne Beams [COL] 16 $51
    Brent Harvey [NTH] 16 Ineligible
    Nathan Jones [MEL] 15.5 $251
    Dyson Heppell [ESS] 15 $15
    Travis Boak [PTA] 15 $41
    Luke Parker [SYD] 15 $51
    Tom Rockliff [BRI] 14.5 Ineligible
    Aaron Sandilands [FRE] 14 $81
    Patrick Dangerfield [ADE] 13.5 $81
    Brett Deledio [RIC] 13.5 Ineligible

  12. #12
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    Wow, SportingBet weren't too bad with their predicted votes. It was so hard to think Priddis could win because the Eagles didn't finish in the top 8, but 9th isn't that far off.

    The thing that irks me the most about the Brownlow, is the umpires don't follow a formula or even sometimes common sense. It's like they pick the 3, 2, 1 votes out of a hat sometimes. After a few years of ridiculous results (IMO) I finally got a win with Ablett, finally a real deserving winner is what I thought, and he would have been a deserving winner again this year if he didn't get injured. I shouldn't have put so much on him to win but I was confident.

  13. #13
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    A good quality numbers out their hope the prediction is accurate..

 

 

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