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Thread: NFL Picks

  1. #1
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    NFL Picks

    Hi everyone, I wasn't sure if I'm supposed to post this in the Betting Logs or American Sports forum, but here goes.

    Before I start, just to let you know my Week 3 picks were:

    Atlanta H2H - WIN
    Philadelphia H2H - WIN
    Seattle H2H - WIN
    New Orleans H2H - WIN
    Carolina H2H - Loss
    Dallas H2H - WIN
    New England H2H - WIN
    Houston H2H - Loss

    My Week 4 picks (28th September):

    Miami H2H @ 1.53
    Reasons: Oakland are awful.

    Indianapolis H2H @ 1.30
    Reasons: Tennessee QB Jake Locker might not play. Indianapolis have won last 5 H2Hs between the two. Indianapolis have a good home record.

    Pittsburgh H2H @ 1.29 (Best pick of the round. Pittsburgh -7.5 is also worth a look)
    Reasons: Tampa Bay were unbelievably bad last week and they have an awful away record. Pittsburgh have a great home record.

    Baltimore H2H @ 1.58
    Reasons: Baltimore have a good home record and they're an improved side from last season.

    San Diego H2H @ 1.14
    Reasons: Jacksonville are awful. San Diego have a good home record and they beat a highly rated Seattle team at home two weeks ago.

    Atlanta H2H @ 1.67
    Reasons: Minnesota are not the same team without Adrian Peterson. Atlanta are coming off a Thursday night game so they should be well rested. They look to be a much better team than they were last year.

    Dallas +3.0 at the Line @ 1.97
    Reasons: New Orleans have a terrible line record as the away favourite. They're not the same team when they're on the road.

  2. #2
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    Here's an update from Week 4:

    Miami H2H @ 1.53 - WIN (easily)
    Indianapolis H2H @ 1.30 - WIN (easily)
    Pittsburgh H2H @ 1.29 - Loss (I'm amazed by that result, WTF Pittsburgh?)
    Baltimore H2H @ 1.58 - WIN (easily)
    San Diego H2H @ 1.14 - WIN (easily)
    Atlanta H2H @ 1.67 - Loss (congrats to Teddy Bridgewater for passing for 317 yards in his first career start)
    Dallas +3.0 at the Line @ 1.97 - WIN (easily)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +5.2 units on 70 units wagered.

    I also had a winning pick of Kansas +3.0, but I didn't included it in my original post, so I won't include it in the results.

  3. #3
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    For Week 5 I'm going to change things up and make picks for all 15 games that are on. I'm tired of watching my predictions for other fixtures that I didn't write picks for end up being correct!

    Green Bay H2H @ 1.29
    Green Bay have a dominant H2H record as the favourite (since last year 8-1-1 as the favourite, 1-7 as the underdog). Green Bay have a 7-1-1 home record against Minnesota in recent years. Also Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater injured his ankle last week so even if he does play he will have had limited practice. Minnesota have a terrible away record.

    Chicago +3.0 @ 1.80
    Carolina should win but Chicago have a good record against them and Carolina have been disappointing in the last couple of weeks.

    Philadelphia H2H @ 1.36
    St Louis QB Austin Davis has been impressive, but defensively they look weak. Philadelphia look good this season.

    NY Giants H2H @ 1.50
    The Giants changed their offensive system and got off to a slow start this season, but they've come good in the last couple of weeks. Atlanta have a terrible away record. I don't think they like playing outdoors!

    New Orleans H2H @ 1.20
    New Orleans were dreadful last week but they are a completely different team when they're at home. Tampa Bay are a poor road team and they've lost their last six against New Orleans.

    Cleveland +2.5 @ 1.95
    I don't think Cleveland are as bad a team as their record suggests. Tennessee's defence seems to get worse each week.

    Pittsburgh H2H @ 1.40
    Since their bad loss to Tampa Bay Pittsburgh started the week as short as 1.28 but have been drifting since. I reckon they'll bounce back against a poor Jacksonville team, much like Miami bounced back last week by whipping Oakland.

    Indianapolis H2H @ 1.55
    Indianpolis have a good home record while Baltimore are poor on the road. Since last year Baltimore have a 1-5 record when they're the underdog.

    Detroit H2H @ 1.32
    Detroit have been great at home this season. Buffalo are struggling and have benched QB EJ Manuel in favour of Kyle Orton.

    Dallas H2H 1.38
    Houston haven't been great on the road of late. Dallas are 5-1 as the favourite since last year while Houston are 0-8 as the underdog.

    Denver H2H @ 1.31 AND Arizona +7.5 @ 1.88
    Denver have a dominant w/l tally at home but they have a poor home line betting record. Arizona are undefeated this season and Denver have yet to beat anyone by more than 7 points.

    San Diego H2H @ 1.35 AND San Diego -6.5 @ 1.93
    San Diego are 4-0 a the line this year and they beat Seattle at home by 11 points in Week 2. The Jets look unsettled at the moment, with fans calling for a change in QB.

    Kansas City +6.5 @ 1.87
    Kansas City are a streaky team and they're hot at the moment. They have a good line record. San Francisco haven't been all that great this season.

    Cincinnati H2H @ 1.88
    Cincinnati are undefeated this season while New England have only looked good in one of their four games. New England only just beat Oakland (a team I think are awful) in their last home game.

    Seattle H2H @ 1.33
    Washington are 1-11 as the underdog over the last year while Seattle are 13-2 as the favourite. Washington have only won one of their last eight games and that was against the hopeless Jacksonville.

  4. #4
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    Here are my results from Week 5:

    Green Bay H2H @ 1.29 - WIN (easily)
    Chicago +3.0 @ 1.80 - Loss (they lost by 6)
    Philadelphia H2H @ 1.36 - WIN
    NY Giants H2H @ 1.50 - WIN
    New Orleans H2H @ 1.20 - WIN (in overtime, I got lucky)
    Cleveland +2.5 @ 1.95 - WIN (they won by 1)
    Pittsburgh H2H @ 1.40 - WIN
    Indianapolis H2H @ 1.55 - WIN
    Detroit H2H @ 1.32 - Loss
    Dallas H2H @ 1.38 - WIN (in overtime, I got lucky)
    Denver H2H @ 1.31 - WIN (easily)
    Arizona +7.5 @ 1.88 - Loss
    San Diego H2H @ 1.35 - WIN (easily)
    San Diego -6.5 @ 1.93 - WIN (easily)
    Kansas City +6.5 @ 1.87 - WIN
    Cincinnati H2H @ 1.88 - Loss (congrats to New England for bouncing back)
    Seattle H2H @ 1.33 - WIN

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +24.2 units on 170 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4 - 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (7.4%)
    Week 5 - 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (14.2%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +29.4 units

  5. #5
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    For Week 6 I'm not providing quite as many tips because there are a number of fixtures where I can't find much value in the odds:

    Houston +3.5 @ 1.68
    The Indianapolis offensive line is their biggest weakness on offence, which doesn't bode well against JJ Watt & Co. Houston only just lost this fixture by 3 points during their disastrous 2013 season, so I like the +3.5 mark over the +2.5 1.91 market.

    Denver H2H @ 1.27
    Once again there's a media circus regarding the NY Jets starting QB. What else is new?

    Cincinnati H2H @ 1.36
    Just about every team that has visited Cincinnati over the last 12 months have had their asses kicked. Cincinnati have won 7 of their last 8 at home - all 7 wins were by 13 points or more! This bet is riskier than usual, though with Cincinnati WR AJ Green unlikely to play. On the other hand, Carolina will likely still be without star RB DeAngelo Williams. If AJ Green were playing I would take Cincinnati -6.5 at the line, but with him out I will stick with the H2H market.

    New England H2H @ 1.71
    It's amazing how much can change in a week (with a good team). After getting hammered by Kansas City two weeks ago, New England thrashed the previously undefeated Cincinnati last week. New England have won 7 of their last 8 away against Buffalo and are 15-1 in their last 16 against them.

    San Diego H2H @ 1.33
    I'm usually loathed to take a short-priced favourite away from home, but San Diego have looked fantastic this season while Oakland have been woeful. Oakland have lost their last 6 home games in a row.

    Seattle @ 1.26
    Seattle are almost unplayable at home, where they've won 8 of their last 9 games. Dallas are actually a pretty good road team, but Seattle should be too strong. They beat the Cowboys by 20 points the last time they hosted them in 2012.

    San Francisco @ 1.58
    San Francisco are one of the best road teams in the NFL. They've won 8 of their last 11 away from home. They have won 6 of their last 7 games as the road favourite.

  6. #6
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    Here are my results from Week 6:

    Houston +3.5 @ 1.68 - Loss (Indianapolis got off to a flyer and Houston ran out of time to catch up)
    Denver H2H @ 1.27 - WIN (easily)
    Cincinnati H2H @ 1.36 - Half payout for draw
    New England H2H @ 1.71 - WIN (easily)
    San Diego H2H @ 1.33 - WIN (closer than I would have liked)
    Seattle @ 1.26 - Loss (the Cowboys are the real deal this year)
    San Francisco @ 1.58 - WIN (easily)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -4.3 units on 70 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +25.1 units
    Last edited by blackswan; 17th October 2014 at 09:57 AM.

  7. #7
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    Here are my picks for Week 7:

    New England @ 1.23
    I don't have much faith in Jets QB Geno Smith. New England are 8-0 at home over the last year while the Jets are 1-6 on the road. The -10.0 line on New England is tempting.

    Baltimore @ 1.36
    Baltimore are 6-2 at home over the last year while Atlanta are 1-8 on the road. Atlanta have won only 1 of their last 5 games while Baltimore have lost only 1 of their last 5.

    Indianapolis @ 1.62
    Indianapolis are playing really well at the moment while Cincinnati have lost their way a bit - especially on defence.

    Buffalo @ 1.42
    Buffalo aren't great however Minnesota have looked weak, plus they're poor away from home.

    San Diego @ 1.50
    Should be a good game. Bookmakers have been good at predicting Kansas City results when they're on the road (3-1 as favourite, 1-4 as underdog). San Diego have won 7 of their last 8 against Kansas City.

    Dallas @ 1.38
    Everyone keeps waiting for the Romo-led offence to slip up, but they've won 5 in a row now. The Giants offensive line got its arse kicked last week against Philadelphia. I don't see them keeping up with Dallas and having Victor Cruz out for the season doesn't help either.
    Last edited by blackswan; 16th October 2014 at 05:26 PM.

  8. #8
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    One other pick for Week 7 is:

    Oakland +6.5 @ 1.58
    I was impressed by Oakland's performance last week and Arizona are missing a number of players on defence this week.

  9. #9
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    Here are my results for Week 7:

    New England @ 1.23 - WIN (much closer than I would have liked!)
    Baltimore @ 1.36 - WIN (easily)
    Indianapolis @ 1.62 - WIN (easily)
    Buffalo @ 1.42 - WIN (just)
    San Diego @ 1.50 - Loss (just)
    Dallas @ 1.38 - WIN
    Oakland +6.5 @ 1.58 - Loss (just)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +0.1 units on 70 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +25.2 units

  10. #10
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    Here are my picks for week 8:

    Denver @ 1.27
    The Denver offence looks fantastic at the moment. San Diego are 5-2 this season, but they've had a soft schedule so far, with Kansas City and Seattle the only two decent teams they've played so far.

    Detroit @ 1.55
    Atlanta have lost their way. Their pass protection is awful, which doesn't bode well against Detroit's defence.

    New England @ 1.42
    New England are coming off 10 days rest while Chicago have been disappointing of late. New England are 8-0 in heir last 8 home games.

    Baltimore @ 2.00
    Cincinnati have struggled since AJ Green got injured. Cincinnati beat Baltimore away earlier this year so there will be some payback here. If AJ Green does play then ignore this pick!

    Green Bay @ 2.10
    I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm taking the away team against New Orleans! New Orleans have been disappointing lately, and their 6-game winning streak at home was only kept alive against the lowly Tampa Bay after going into extra time.

    Dallas @ 1.22
    Dallas have now won 6 straight while Washington are throwing the dice by starting with Colt McCoy at QB. This will be McCoy's first start since 2011. McCoy did well after coming in against Tennessee last week, but playing away against Dallas is an entirely different ask.

  11. #11
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    Here are my results for Week 8:

    Denver @ 1.27 (WIN)
    Detroit @ 1.55 (WIN)
    New England @ 1.42 (WIN)
    Baltimore @ 2.00 (Loss)
    Green Bay @ 2.10 (Loss)
    Dallas @ 1.22 (Loss - in overtime)


    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -17.6 units on 60 units wagered. That was my first really bad result of the year. I'm kicking myself for not following my golden rule regarding backing the away teams against New Orleans and Cincinnati. Once again I'm annoyed with myself because I actually also backed:
    Buffalo @ 2.25 (WIN), Kansas City @ 1.29 (WIN), Tampa Bay @ 1.67 (Loss), Pittsburgh @ 2.25 (WIN) and Carolina +5 @ 1.91 (WIN). Perhaps next week I won't be selective with the tips I publish because I tend to do worse when I do.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +7.6 units

  12. #12
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    Here are my picks for Week 9:

    Carolina +3 @ 1.88
    Over the last year Carolina are 7-1-2 at the line at home while New Orleans are 3-8 on the road and 0-6 as the road favourite.

    Washington @ 1.98
    Robert Griffin III returns to start this week. Even if Griffin doesn't play the entire game, reserve QB Colt McCoy is a decent replacement.

    Kansas City @ 1.25
    Kansas City have played well at home over the last few weeks and the Jets have only won 1 of their last 7 away games.

    Philadelphia @ 1.83
    Houston have consistently beaten weaker teams and lost to stronger teams this season. Houston have lost their last 9 straight games when installed as the underdog while Philadelphia have won 10 out of their last 12 when installed as the favourite. Also, Houstin star RB Arian Foster has been battling a knee injury during the week. Houston have a terrible record when he doesn't play. Houston WR Andre Johnson has an ankle issue.

    Cincinnati @ 1.18
    Cincinnati are 7-1-1 at home over the last 12 months. They are also 7-2 at the line at home with 6 of their last 7 home wins being by 13 points or more. Cincinnati may have star WR A.J. Green back this week. As a side note, I think the total has a good chance of going over 43.5.

    San Francisco @ 1.20
    San Francisco have won 5 of their last 7 at home and they are 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against St Louis. San Francisco have been battling with injuries this season but they will get a few players back after a timely bye last week.

    New England +3 @ 2.05
    New England are 8-0 at home over the last 12 months. I think each team has a 50% chance of winning which is why I'm taking the value with the home side.

    Seattle @ 1.07
    Oakland are on a 13-game losing streak and Seattle are excellent at home.

    Pittsburgh @ 2.00
    Pittsburgh have only lost 2 of their last 9 home games and they were fantastic offensively last week. They are the slight underdogs this week and Pittsburgh are 3-0 in their last 3 home games as the underdog.

    Indianaplois @ 1.62
    The NY Giants have beaten a number of teams this year but they have yet to defeat a playoff bound team. Indianapolis have a fantastic, high scoring offence and I think the Giants will struggle to keep up.

  13. #13
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    Here are my results for Week 9:

    Carolina +3 @ 1.88 (Loss - my one bad pick this week)
    Washington @ 1.98 (Loss - close)
    Kansas City @ 1.25 (WIN - easily)
    Philadelphia @ 1.83 (WIN)
    Cincinnati @ 1.18 (WIN)
    San Francisco @ 1.20 (Loss - I'm still spewing over that final drive fumble)
    New England +3 @ 2.05 (WIN - easily)
    Seattle @ 1.07 (WIN - closer than I would have liked)
    Pittsburgh @ 2.00 (WIN - easily)
    Indianapolis @ 1.62 (WIN - easily)


    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +10.0 units on 100 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +17.6 units
    Last edited by blackswan; 6th November 2014 at 02:36 PM.

  14. #14
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    Here are my picks for Week 10:

    Cincinnati @ 1.39
    Cincinnati are 8-1-1 at home over the last 12 months while Cleveland are 1-6 on the road. Cleveland have lost 17 straight road games in the AFC North and Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a 3-0 home record against Cleveland. Cincinnati have WR AJ Green closer to full fitness after he played about half of the snaps last week. Since they lost their starting centre, Alex Mack, Cleveland have been terrible at running the football - they clearly have very little depth at that position.

    Pittsburgh @ 1.46
    The NY Jets have been terrible this season, even by their standards.

    New Orleans @ 1.45
    New Orleans have a fantastic home record and San Francisco appear to have lost their way a bit.

    Baltimore @ 1.21
    Baltimore have had a tough couple of weeks but they're generally very good at home, where they've won 6 of their last 8 when installed as the favourite.

    Seattle @ 1.28
    Seattle are excellent at home and the NY Giants have a terrible record of late against playoff calibre teams.

    Arizona @ 1.32
    Arizona have been on fire of late and they are 6-1 in their last 7 home games. St Louis are 2-5 in their last 7 away games.

    Green Bay @ 1.30
    Green Bay are 4-1-0 as the home favourite over the last 12 months while Chicago have only won 1 of their last 5 games.

    Philadelphia @ 1.43
    Philadelphia have won 8 of their last 9 home games whie Carolina are 1-1-3 as the road underdog. Carolina are 1-1-5 in their last 7 games.

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    Here are my results for Week 10:

    Cincinnati @ 1.39 (Loss)
    Pittsburgh @ 1.46 (Loss)
    New Orleans @ 1.45 (Loss - in OT)
    Baltimore @ 1.21 (WIN)
    Seattle @ 1.28 (WIN)
    Arizona @ 1.32 (WIN)
    Green Bay @ 1.30 (WIN)
    Philadelphia @ 1.43 (WIN)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -14.6 units on 80 units wagered. What a crappy week!

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +3.0 units

  16. #16
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    Here are my NFL picks for Week 11:

    New Orleans @ 1.32
    New Orleans will still be steaming after the late controversial call cost them (and me!) last week's game. They are at home for this game and they have an excellent record at the Superdome. Cincinnati were unbelievably bad last week and they will most likely still be without RB Giovani Bernard.

    San Francisco @ 1.52
    The NY Giants offence is dreadful at the moment and their defence has conceded 106 points in their last 2 games. Also, San Francisco are 8-3 on the road over the last 12 months.

    Cleveland @ 1.58
    Cleveland have won their last 3 home games and they're coming off a shock road win over Cincinnati. Texas RB Arian Foster has a hamstring issue and Texas have an awful record when he doesn't play.

    Green Bay @ 1.40
    Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has been in sensational form of late - particularly at home, where he threw 6 TDs in the first half against Chicago. While Philadelphia are a great team, I don't see them, or any other team for that matter, keeping up with Green Bay's rampant home offence.

  17. #17
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    Here are my results for Week 11:

    New Orleans @ 1.32 (Loss)
    San Francisco @ 1.52 (WIN)
    Cleveland @ 1.58 (Loss)
    Green Bay @ 1.40 (WIN)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -10.8 units on 40 units wagered. I think next week I'll publish tips for all fixtures because I did pretty well on other fixtures I didn't write about this week - Murphy's Law, eh?

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: -7.8 units

  18. #18
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    Here are my NFL picks for Week 12:

    Kansas City @ 1.31
    Kansas City -7.0 @ 1.86
    Kansas City have only lost one of their last 8. Oakland are winless in their last 8 at home and they're 1-7 at the line at home.

    Philadelphia @ 1.15
    Philadelphia -11.0 @ 1.99
    The only team Tennessee has beaten in recent times was Jacksonville. Philadelphia have won 8 of their last 9 home games and they're 6-1-2 at the line at home.

    New England @ 1.32
    New England -6.5 @ 1.86
    Detroit are a good team but New England are immense when they're at home and they're in imposing form at the moment.

    Green Bay @ 1.23
    Green Bay -9.5 @ 1.90
    Green Bay's offence has been immense of late and they thumped the Vikings by 32 points earlier in the season.

    Indianapolis @ 1.11
    Indianapolis -13.5 @ 1.86
    Jacksonville are awful, especially on the road, and Indianapolis have a strong home record where they're 7-2 at the line.

    St. Louis +5 @ 1.95
    I give the Rams a fighting chance of causing an upset against San Diego, who have been disappointing this season. St. Louis have already claimed the scalp of San Francisco on the road this year and they're coming off a convincing win over Denver.

    Denver @ 1.33
    Denver are 5-0 over the last twelve months when they come into a game on the back of a loss. They are also 4-1 at the line on the back of a loss.

    San Francisco @ 1.26
    Washington are a mess at the QB position and you get the feeling the Washington locker room is not a happy place to be at the moment. RG III has been disappointing since his return from injury.

    Dallas @ 1.58
    Dallas are having an excellent season and they've won 5 of their last 6 away games. The Giants have fallen apart over the last 5 weeks.

  19. #19
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    Here are the results for week 12:

    Kansas City @ 1.31 (Loss)
    Kansas City -7.0 @ 1.86 (Loss)
    Philadelphia @ 1.15 (WIN)
    Philadelphia -11.0 @ 1.99 (WIN)
    New England @ 1.32 (WIN)
    New England -6.5 @ 1.86 (WIN)
    Green Bay @ 1.23 (WIN)
    Green Bay -9.5 @ 1.90 (Loss)
    Indianapolis @ 1.11 (WIN)
    Indianapolis -13.5 @ 1.86 (WIN)
    St. Louis +5 @ 1.95 (WIN)
    Denver @ 1.33 (WIN)
    San Francisco @ 1.26 (WIN)
    Dallas @ 1.58 (WIN)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +26.5 units on 140 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +18.7 units

  20. #20
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    Here are my picks for week 13:

    St. Louis @ 1.37
    Oakland broke their losing streak last week but they were playing at home. St. Louis have beaten Denver and Seattle at home this season so I expect them too be too good for Oakland.

    St. Louis 1-13 @ 2.14 (not a typo - Sportsbet uses 1-13 not 1-12)
    Six of Oakland's seven away losses were by 1-12 points, while St. Louis have won by 1-12 points in three out of their four wins.

    Pittsburgh @ 1.50
    The Saints have been disappointing at home over the last three weeks and they have an awful away record. Pittsburgh have been very good at home of late. I'm nervous about this pick, though, because the Steelers have been unpredictable this season.

    Indianapolis @ 1.21
    The Colts are 7-2 at home over the last 12 months while Washington are 1-7 on the road. Defensively Washington are okay but I doubt RGIII can keep up with Luck on Sunday.

    Baltimore @ 1.38
    San Diego have been disappointing in their most recent away games and Baltimore have thumped their last three visiting teams - all of which failed to score more than 10 points.

  21. #21
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    Here are the results for week 13:

    St. Louis @ 1.37 (WIN)
    St. Louis 1-13 @ 2.14 (Loss)
    Pittsburgh @ 1.50 (Loss)
    Indianapolis @ 1.21 (WIN)
    Baltimore @ 1.38 (Loss)

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
    Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: -5.5 units

  22. #22
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    Hmmm. It seems the more selective I am with my picks the worse I do. With that in mind here are my picks for Week 14:

    Dallas @ 1.57
    Dallas are 6-1 on the road over the last 12 months. They are 4-0 as the road favourite while Chicago are 0-2 as the home underdog.

    St Louis @ 1.70
    Washington have been disappointing this season while St Louis have beaten the likes of Denver, San Francisco (away) and Seattle.

    NY Giants @ 1.95
    Both Tennessee and the NY Giants have been awful this season, but the Giants look closer to breaking their losing streak after close losses to San Francisco, Dallas and Jacksonville.

    New Orleans @ 1.21
    Carolina have been hammered on the road of late. New Orleans may have turned a corner after their upset win over Pittsburgh.

    Minnesota @ 1.38
    Minnesota are a tough team to play when they're at home. They hammered Carolina last week and the red hot Green Bay Packers only won by 3 a few weeks ago.

    Baltimore @ 2.30
    I give Baltimore a real chance of upsetting Miami this week. They've won their last three trips to Miami.

    Houston @ 1.44
    Houston have won their last two away games against teams of similar strength to Jacksonville. Houston have some excellent defensive players like JJ Watt who will thrive against a struggling team.

    Detroit @ 1.22
    Better teams than Tampa Bay have gone to Detroit and lost this season. I can't see Tampa Bay's offence keeping up with Detroit's rate of scoring.

    Denver @ 1.22
    Things are looking ominous for the rest of the competition now that the Broncos appear to have their running game working.

    Oakland v San Francisco - under 40.5 @ 2.00
    Both offenses have struggled while San Francisco have an excellent defence.

    Green Bay @ 1.18
    Green Bay at home are notoriously difficult to beat and Atlanta won't enjoy the cold outdoor venue given they play indoor home games.

  23. #23
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    Here are the results for Week 14:

    Dallas @ 1.57 (WIN)
    St Louis @ 1.70 (WIN)
    NY Giants @ 1.95 (WIN)
    New Orleans @ 1.21 (Loss)
    Minnesota @ 1.38 (WIN)
    Baltimore @ 2.30 (WIN)
    Houston @ 1.44 (WIN)
    Detroit @ 1.22 (WIN)
    Denver @ 1.22 (WIN)
    Oakland v San Francisco - under 40.5 @ 2.00 (WIN)
    Green Bay @ 1.18 (WIN)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +49.6 units on 110 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
    Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
    Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +44.1 units

  24. #24
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    Here are my picks for Week 15:

    NY Giants @ 1.37
    Washington are a mess at the moment, particularly at the QB position, while the Giants recently snapped their losing streak with a convincing away win over Tennessee. The Giants have won four of the last five head to heads with Washington and Washington are 1-7 on the road over the last 12 months. The Giants are 3-1 as the home favourite over the last 12 months.

    New England @ 1.29
    Miami are a good team, but I don't back anyone to get a result when they visit New England, who are undefeated at home over the last 12 months. New England have won 7 of their last 8 at home against Miami.

    Oakland +10.5 @ 1.92
    I give Oakland an outside chance of causing a major upset here. They beat Kansas City at home a few weeks ago and Kansas City haven't won a game since. Oakland beat San Francisco last week, which will have given them a major confidence boost. Despite their woes this season Oakland have only lost 2 of their 7 away losses by more than 12 points.

    Indianapolis @ 1.36
    Indianapolis are excellent at home and they've won 5 of their last 6 against Houston. Houston have been predictable on the road this season, going 3-0 as the road favourite and 1-4 as the road underdog.

    Cleveland @ 1.92
    With Johnny Manziel getting the start at QB for Cleveland this week, I can see him sparking their offence into life.

    Balitmore @ 1.12
    On paper this should be very one sided. Jacksonville are winless on the road over the last 12 months.

    Green Bay @ 1.49
    Green Bay are 4-0 when installed as the road favourite this season. I wouldn't back them at the -6.5 line, but they have a habit of winning away games with tight scorelines. Green Bay raced off to a healthy lead last week but their defence was awful against Atlanta in the 2nd half, so Green Bay's defence will have a point to prove this weekend.

    Seattle @ 1.22
    Under 38.5 @ 1.85
    San Francisco have an excellent defence, but their offence has been awful in recent months. I expect Seattle to win in a low scoring affair. The total when they met two weeks ago in Seattle was just 22!

    Detroit @ 1.26
    Detroit are a strong home team while Minnesota have a poor away record. Detroit already beat Minnesota 17-3 earlier in the season away from home.

  25. #25
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    I don't have any plays for the Monday Night game, so here are the results for Week 15:

    NY Giants @ 1.37 (WIN)
    New England @ 1.29 (WIN)
    Oakland +10.5 @ 1.92 (Loss)
    Indianapolis @ 1.36 (WIN)
    Cleveland @ 1.92 (Loss)
    Balitmore @ 1.12 (WIN)
    Green Bay @ 1.49 (Loss)
    Seattle @ 1.22 (WIN)
    Seattle v SF - Under 38.5 @ 1.85 (WIN)
    Detroit @ 1.26 (WIN)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -5.3 units on 100 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
    Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
    Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
    Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +38.8 units

  26. #26
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    Here are my picks for Week 16:

    Philadelphia @ 1.30
    Washington are on a six-game losing streak. Washington have yet to win this season as the home underdog and Philadelphia have yet to lose as the road favourite.

    San Diego @ 2.06
    Under 41.5 @ 1.93
    San Francisco's offence has been ineffective and San Diego have a respectable 4-4 away record. San Francisco's defence is still very good, however, so I expect this to be a low scoring game.

    Green Bay @ 1.19
    Green Bay have a 4-1 record on the back of a loss. Tampa Bay have lost their last 6 home games and have nothing but pride to play for at the moment.

    New Orleans @ 1.40
    New Orleans' mid-season slump seems to be behind them and Atlanta have little to play for.

    Pittsburgh @ 1.67
    Pittsburgh should win this, although they have been painfully unpredictable this season.

    Arizona v Seattle Under 36.5 @ 1.95
    Two defensively strong teams going head to head. The total could very easily stay below 30.

  27. #27
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    Here are the results for Week 16:

    Philadelphia @ 1.30 (Loss)
    San Diego @ 2.06 (WIN)
    Under 41.5 @ 1.93 (Loss)
    Green Bay @ 1.19 (WIN)
    New Orleans @ 1.40 (Loss)
    Pittsburgh @ 1.67 (WIN)
    Arizona v Seattle Under 36.5 @ 1.95 (Loss)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -20.8 units on 70 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
    Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
    Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
    Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
    Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +18.0 units

  28. #28
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    Here are my picks for Week 17:

    New Orleans @ 1.51
    After being so good at home and so bad on the road, New Orleans seemed to have flipped a switch mid-season. Their last 8 games (home & away) have been won by the visiting team and they're on the road this week. Tampa Bay will benefit by losing due to the implications for the 2015 NFL draft.

    Minnesota @ 1.40
    Chicago have been disappointing this season, both offensively and defensively. They enter this game on a 4-game losing streak.

    Houston @ 1.21
    Jacksonville are without a win on the road this season. Houston have a good record when installed as the favourite.

    Dallas @ 1.40
    Dallas can complete a clean sweep of 8 wins and 0 losses on the road if they can win this. They torched the playoff-bound Colts last week and I can't see Washington's inept offence keeping up with the scoring of Dallas.

  29. #29
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    Here are the results for Week 17:

    New Orleans @ 1.51 (WIN)
    Minnesota @ 1.40 (WIN)
    Houston @ 1.21 (WIN)
    Dallas @ 1.40 (WIN)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +15.2 units on 40 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
    Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
    Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
    Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
    Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
    Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +33.2 units

  30. #30
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    I don't have any picks for the Wild Card Weekend. Hopefully there will be more value next week.

  31. #31
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    Here are my picks for the Divisional Round:

    Baltimore +7.0 @ 1.88
    Baltimore have been a bogey team for New England in recent years. When Joe Flacco is on fire Baltimore look capable of beating anyone, so they are a dangerous side this post-season. Baltimore remind be of the NY Giants when they got hot during the playoffs, going on to win two Super Bowls.

    Seattle v Carolina - Under 40.5 @ 1.92
    This game features two excellent defences and two mediocre offences.

    Green Bay v Dallas - over 51.5 @ 1.82
    Green Bay went 7-1 over/under at home this season while Dallas went 7-1 over/under on the road. Both offences should do well this weekend. As a side note, Green Bay went 8-0 at home this season while Dallas went 8-0 on the road. Should be a great game.

    Denver -5.5 @ 1.77
    I don't think Denver will win the Super Bowl because I expect Peyton Manning's arm to tire as the playoffs wear on, but the Broncos had a bye last week so I expect him to be fully fit for this game.

  32. #32
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    Here are the results for the Divisional Round:

    Here are my picks for the Divisional Round:

    Baltimore +7.0 @ 1.88 (WIN)
    Seattle v Carolina - Under 40.5 @ 1.92 (Loss)
    Green Bay v Dallas - over 51.5 @ 1.82 (Loss)
    Denver -5.5 @ 1.77 (Loss)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -21.2 units on 40 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
    Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
    Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
    Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
    Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
    Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
    Wildcard Weekend: 0 units wagered => +0.0 units (+0.0%)
    Divisional Round: 40 units wagered => -21.2 units (-53.0%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +12.0 units

  33. #33
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    Here are my picks for the conference championships:

    Seattle @ 1.33
    Seattle are 8-1 at home over the last 12 months while Green Bay are 4-4 on the road. Green Bay are 0-3 over the last 12 months as the road underdog. It's also worth noting that Green Bay are also 0-3 at the line as the road underdog while Seattle are 6-1-2 at the line as the home favourite.

    New England @ 1.38
    I'm hoping Indianapolis can cause an upset but the Patriots have an immense record at home. New England have won their last 5 straight against Indianapolis. Their last 3 wins were all by 19+ points.

  34. #34
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    Here are the results for the conference championships:

    Seattle @ 1.33 (WIN - never in doubt )
    New England @ 1.38 (WIN)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +7.1 units on 20 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
    Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
    Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
    Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
    Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
    Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
    Wildcard Weekend: 0 units wagered => +0.0 units (+0.0%)
    Divisional Round: 40 units wagered => -21.2 units (-53.0%)
    Conference Championships: 20 units wagered => +7.1 units (+35.5%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +19.1 units

  35. #35
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    Here is my pick for the Super Bowl

    Under 48.5 @ 1.82

    Seattle boasts the best defence in the league while the Patriots defence is ranked 8th in the league for points conceded. The previous visits for the Patriots to the Super Bowl have been low scoring affairs:
    2012: Giants 21-17 Patriots
    2008: Giants 17-14 Patriots
    2005: Patriots 24-21 Eagles
    2004: Patriots 32-29 Panthers
    2002: Patriots 20-17 Rams
    Only one of the above five games went over 48 points.

    New England H2H @ 1.98

    The Patriots were by far the more convincing team in the Conference Championships. I can see them outscoring Seattle in a low scoring affair. The main task for New England will be stopping Lynch.

  36. #36
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    Here are the results for the Super Bowl:

    Under 48.5 @ 1.82 (Loss)
    New England H2H @ 1.98 (WIN)

    If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -0.2 units on 20 units wagered.

    =========================================
    Season tally:
    =========================================
    Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
    Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
    Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
    Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
    Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
    Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
    Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
    Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
    Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
    Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
    Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
    Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
    Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
    Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
    Wildcard Weekend: 0 units wagered => +0.0 units (+0.0%)
    Divisional Round: 40 units wagered => -21.2 units (-53.0%)
    Conference Championships: 20 units wagered => +7.1 units (+35.5%)
    Super Bowl: 20 units wagered => -0.2 units (-1.0%)
    ------------------------------------------
    Total +/-: +18.9 units

    That's all for the season. Hope you enjoyed!

 

 

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