NFL Picks

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for the Divisional Round:

Baltimore +7.0 @ 1.88
Baltimore have been a bogey team for New England in recent years. When Joe Flacco is on fire Baltimore look capable of beating anyone, so they are a dangerous side this post-season. Baltimore remind be of the NY Giants when they got hot during the playoffs, going on to win two Super Bowls.

Seattle v Carolina - Under 40.5 @ 1.92
This game features two excellent defences and two mediocre offences.

Green Bay v Dallas - over 51.5 @ 1.82
Green Bay went 7-1 over/under at home this season while Dallas went 7-1 over/under on the road. Both offences should do well this weekend. As a side note, Green Bay went 8-0 at home this season while Dallas went 8-0 on the road. Should be a great game.

Denver -5.5 @ 1.77
I don't think Denver will win the Super Bowl because I expect Peyton Manning's arm to tire as the playoffs wear on, but the Broncos had a bye last week so I expect him to be fully fit for this game.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for the Divisional Round:

Here are my picks for the Divisional Round:

Baltimore +7.0 @ 1.88 (WIN)
Seattle v Carolina - Under 40.5 @ 1.92 (Loss)
Green Bay v Dallas - over 51.5 @ 1.82 (Loss)
Denver -5.5 @ 1.77 (Loss)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -21.2 units on 40 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
Wildcard Weekend: 0 units wagered => +0.0 units (+0.0%)
Divisional Round: 40 units wagered => -21.2 units (-53.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +12.0 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for the conference championships:

Seattle @ 1.33
Seattle are 8-1 at home over the last 12 months while Green Bay are 4-4 on the road. Green Bay are 0-3 over the last 12 months as the road underdog. It's also worth noting that Green Bay are also 0-3 at the line as the road underdog while Seattle are 6-1-2 at the line as the home favourite.

New England @ 1.38
I'm hoping Indianapolis can cause an upset but the Patriots have an immense record at home. New England have won their last 5 straight against Indianapolis. Their last 3 wins were all by 19+ points.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for the conference championships:

Seattle @ 1.33 (WIN - never in doubt )
New England @ 1.38 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +7.1 units on 20 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
Wildcard Weekend: 0 units wagered => +0.0 units (+0.0%)
Divisional Round: 40 units wagered => -21.2 units (-53.0%)
Conference Championships: 20 units wagered => +7.1 units (+35.5%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +19.1 units

[blackswan]

Here is my pick for the Super Bowl

Under 48.5 @ 1.82

Seattle boasts the best defence in the league while the Patriots defence is ranked 8th in the league for points conceded. The previous visits for the Patriots to the Super Bowl have been low scoring affairs:
2012: Giants 21-17 Patriots
2008: Giants 17-14 Patriots
2005: Patriots 24-21 Eagles
2004: Patriots 32-29 Panthers
2002: Patriots 20-17 Rams
Only one of the above five games went over 48 points.

New England H2H @ 1.98

The Patriots were by far the more convincing team in the Conference Championships. I can see them outscoring Seattle in a low scoring affair. The main task for New England will be stopping Lynch.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for the Super Bowl:

Under 48.5 @ 1.82 (Loss)
New England H2H @ 1.98 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -0.2 units on 20 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
Wildcard Weekend: 0 units wagered => +0.0 units (+0.0%)
Divisional Round: 40 units wagered => -21.2 units (-53.0%)
Conference Championships: 20 units wagered => +7.1 units (+35.5%)
Super Bowl: 20 units wagered => -0.2 units (-1.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +18.9 units

That's all for the season. Hope you enjoyed!