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  1. #1
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    Aug 2011
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    Weekend racing preview with picks - 29 Sep 2012

    This weekend racing preview is by Neil Evans at Luxbet.

    The night before the day after. Melbourne fans don’t know where to look! The nation’s premier and unbeaten three-year-old Pierro – already sensationally backed from $1.20 into $1.10 - struts his stuff at Moonee Valley tonight before some of the best handicapping sprinters in the land lock horns in the Sir Rupert Clarke at Caulfield on Sunday.

    In between all that, Mornington hosts the Listed Ansett Classic Day tomorrow, while the feathers fly at the MCG in the AFL flag decider. And as the carnival really starts to gather momentum, the headline acts continue slipping into town.

    Long odds-on Pierro was jumped on by big punters at the speed of light to win tonight’s Bill Stutt Stakes over the mile, but at a much more attractive price, the resuming Buffering ($2.80 into $2.45) has been heavily tried to win the Group 2 Moir Stakes (1200m) at weight-for-age in what looms as a speed showdown against first-up Rosehill winner Tiger Tees ($3.50 out to $4.00)!

    Personally, I want to be on Tiger Tees, especially at the value. Anything $4.00 or better is boom time for a top class short-course horse that will come across and sit outside or just off the speed.

    But we’ll probably lose count of the number of bets written on the Snitzerland-Pierro double tonight. It looks an almost even money put in and take out!

    At Rosehill in Sydney tomorrow, leading trainers Gai Waterhouse and Chris Waller could go close to training the card, although while they dominant fixed odds betting for most of the program, the last two races are open and competitive.

    Here’s a snap shot of how I see the weekend racing:

    MY SIR RUPERT CLARKE TIP (Caulfield R6 SUN): PINWHEEL: Given a month off after a dominant Warwick Stakes win under 59kgs. Reasonably treated here with 57.5kg, and I like him drawn away from the fence where he can get cover and be produced at the right time. Given an easy trial in Sydney before heading south and is over the odds despite this being a competitive Group 1.

    MY BEST BET: ALBRECHT (Rosehill R4 SAT): Under the set weight conditions and up to 1500m, this talented colt is breathing all over the race. Still learning the trade, but hit the line terrific in the Group 1 Golden Rose, and can stalk the field here before charging over the top.

    MY BEST VALUE BET: EMOTICON (Eagle Farm R1 SAT): Broke through in a weaker race at Toowoomba last start after having little luck in previous two. Sneaks back into town, with a big weight drop and over the ideal 1800m trip. Suited in the smaller field and way over the odds!

    MY BEST LAY : URBAN GROOVE (Rosehill R7 SAT): Strong debut winner from the front at Kembla, but this is much tougher in Listed three-year-old Fillies grade. Should find the lead but will have a big job holding this lot out. Too short!

    BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: MORNING CAPTAIN (Eagle Farm R7 SAT): A renowned first-up performer reportedly well prepared and has been sensationally backed by smart punters from $6.50 into $4.00. On the limit weight and will be a huge market mover!

    NEIL’S ROSEHILL RUMBLER:
    R1 No. 5 TOHUNGA: Blew it at the barrier last start at Rosehill, but still did a fair job. Out to a more suitable trip now, and this isn’t overly strong. Looks well placed to make amends!

    NEIL’S MOONEE VALLEY MARVEL:
    R1 No. 11 GENERALIFE: Showed enormous promise with little luck first prep earlier in the year, and proved he’s come back even better by bl owing them away first-up at Geelong after being checked early. Should sit midfield, and let the big finish emerge!

    NEIL’S MORNINGTON MAESTRO:
    R3 No. 2 DESTINY’S KISS: Came unstuck at Sandown last start, but previously put three wins together, and this looks no harder. Will sit off the fence and behind the speed, and should be able to round them up. And if the rain comes, back it again!

    NEIL’S CAULFIELD CRACKER:
    R7 No. 1 AHDASHIM: Looked good in recent strong trials before never getting into the hunt first-up in the Group 3 Bobbie Lewis down the Flemington straight. Back to Listed grade around the bend suits, and has a good second-up record. Big chance at double figure odds!

    NEIL’S EAGLE FARM FLYER:
    R8 No. 9 DORCHESTER: Won three runs back, but has hit the line hard both runs since from back in the field. Drawn to get a lovely run midfield here on the lim it weight, and in a 0MW race, is a huge knockout chance at big odds!

 

 

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