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Thread: Caulfield Cup

  1. #1
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    Caulfield Cup

    A Sportingbet Australia punter stands to collect $560,000 on Saturday afternoon after placing a $35,000 bet on Lights Of Heaven to win the Caulfield Cup at odds of $16.

    Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there’s been strong support for the Peter Moody trained mare and she’s now an outright 5th favourite at $13.

    “Moody decided to avoid the Metropolitan at Randwick in order to focus on the Caulfield Cup with Lights Of Heaven and the money suggests the horse must be doing very well,” Sullivan said.

    “Aside from the $35,000 bet we’ve taken a number of four figure wagers and she’s now one of the best backed runners in the race.”

    Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner, Dunaden, has also been well supported in Caulfield Cup betting over the last two days and is $13 into $9. The Gai Waterhouse trained Glencadam Gold remains a solid $3.80 favourite ahead of December Draw at $6.

    2012 Caulfield Cup
    Sportingbet Australia market
    Glencadam Gold 3.80
    December Draw 6.00
    Dunaden 9.00
    Southern Speed 10.00
    Lights Of Heaven 13.00
    Americain 15.00
    Voila Ici 16.00
    Folding Gear 16.00
    Jakkalberry 17.00
    My Quest For Peace 18.00
    Sneak A Peek 19.00
    Niwot 26.00
    Alcopop 26.00
    Zabeelionaire 31.00
    Winchester 31.00
    Excluded 31.00
    Secret Admirer 31.00

  2. #2
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    Below are the updated Caulfield Cup odds following the announcement of the final field this afternoon.

    Glencadam Gold remains a solid 3.80 favourite ahead of December Draw at 6.50 and Dunaden at 7.50.


    2012 Caulfield Cup
    Sportingbet Australia market
    Glencadam Gold 3.80 (steady)
    December Draw 6.50 (was 6.00)
    Dunaden 7.50 (was 9.00)
    Southern Speed 16.00 (was 10.00)
    Lights Of Heaven 15.00 (was 13.00)
    Americain 17.00 (was 15.00)
    Voila Ici 17.00 (was 16.00)
    Folding Gear 21.00 (was 16.00)
    Jakkalberry 21.00 (was 17.00)
    My Quest For Peace 15.00 (was 18.00)
    Sneak A Peek 21.00 (was 19.00)
    Niwot 34.00 (was 26.00)
    Alcopop 17.00 (was 26.00)
    Zabeelionaire 31.00 (steady)
    Winchester 31.00 (steady)
    Secret Admirer 26.00 (was 31.00)
    Niwot 34.00
    Sanagas 61.00

    Emergencies
    Sabrage $101
    Gatewood $10
    Ibicenco $81
    Fictional Account $201

  3. #3
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    The Caulfield Cup market has been turned on its head after several of the fancies, including favourite Glencadam Gold, drew terribly for Saturday’s race.

    Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Glencadam Gold had drifted from $3.90 to $4.50 since the barrier draw and he expected it to continue to blow out.

    “Jim Cassidy has been set a task to get Glencadam Gold across from the outside and I don’t think punters will want a bar of him,” Sullivan said.

    “I wouldn’t be surprised if he got out to $5.00 before jump time and we have already seen punters starting to come for other runners.

    “December Draw ($7.50), My Quest For Peace ($15 to $13), Lights of Heaven ($13 to $12) and Alcopop ($19 to $14) have all attracted support since the barrier draw.

    Sullivan said Glencadam Gold wasn’t the only horse to be on the drift after drawing poorly.

    “Melbourne Cup winners Americain ($14 to $18) and Dunaden ($7.00 to $8.00) both drew awfully and it looks like they will have to get right back in the run,” he said.

    2012 Caulfield Cup
    Sportingbet Australia market

    Glencadam Gold $4.50
    December Draw $7.50
    Dunaden $8.00
    Lights Of Heaven $12
    My Quest For Peace $12
    Alcopop $14
    Sneak A Peek $17
    Americain $18
    Southern Speed $21
    Voila Ici $21
    Folding Gear $21
    Jakkalberry $21
    Secret Admirer $26
    Niwot $31
    Zabeelionaire $31
    Winchester $31
    Moudre $51
    Sanagas $61

    Emergencies
    Sabrage $101
    Gatewood $12
    Ibicenco $81
    Fictional Account $101

  4. #4
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    Below is a Caulfield Cup preview from Neil Evans at Luxbet.

    ---

    I’m convinced one of the past Geelong and Melbourne Cup winners – Americain or Dunaden – will win tomorrow’s Caulfield Cup, despite the “horror” wide barriers, and of course, the top weight of 58kgs that comes with their internationally-acknowledged rating.

    I’m putting Americain – an outrageous $21.00 in early betting – on top, and praying that he can come over and get cover behind something that can drag him into the race going up the hill around the back. Yes, I could be accused of sipping on too much French champagne, but my “cover” selection will be Dunaden, who after an aborted Arc de Triomphe campaign, has a real sense of timing about him for this Spring. In fact, the stable could hardly contain its expectation in Melbourne this week over how well Dunaden is travelling on the training track.

    Dunaden will jump from the outside gate, but like Americain, I think he’ll be able t o get across and find a “spot” – and here’s my thinking! So many runners drawn near the inside will hunt up early knowing Jimmy Cassidy will come charging across from an outside gate on favourite Glencadem Gold to try and find the front without burning too much gas. For that reason, I believe the first 400m will be strong before the breaks go on, which should allow enough time and room for the French stars to get across and find some sort of cover.

    I lean to Americain because he is a much bigger and stronger horse, and while maybe not having the dash and acceleration of Dunaden, this will be a Cup where the heat goes right on at the 1000m, so Americain will have enough time to wind up and charge into the finish.
    Dunaden, and the local mare Lights of Heaven have both been heavily backed on Luxbet, with the latter toppling from $17.00 going into the barrier draw into a $10.00 fourth favourite, and destined to jump even shorter.

    Glencadem Gold had been very well tried early, but after drawing a very wide gate, punters shied away, yet as soon as the well-weighted front-running star hit $5.00 they came charging back in!

    Either way, this is the strongest Caulfield Cup field in many years, and such the value is enormous. My advice would be to back one, and save around a few others at “value” prices!

    CAULFIELD CUP: 1. AMERICAIN; 2. DUNADEN; 3. GLENCADEM GOLD

    Here’s a snap-shot of how I see the big day:

    MY CAULFIELD CUP TIP: AMERICAIN: The biggest value in the field at a huge price, from $21.00 into $19.00. Will be ridden quieter like the star he was in the Spring of 2010, and been specifically set for the Cups double. Just wants cover from the wide gate to be in the finish, and no risk he can carry the weight!

    MY BEST BET: EMOTIONAL CIRCUS (Randwick R8): Talented back-marker who h it the line hard despite having little luck in the stronger Group 2 Premiere a fortnight ago, and even better placed here carrying 1.5kg less at Listed level!

    MY BEST VALUE BET: ALTAR (Caulfield R6): Talented mare resuming in suitable sprint race. Love it when Darley switch states early in a horse’s prep. Trialled beautifully for this, and with good speed on, can get home over the top at big odds!

    MY LAY: DECEMBER DRAW (Caulfield R8): Not a bold lay considering the Cup’s wide market and big competitive field, but he’s on the second line of betting, yet should be double that price. In such a quality high pressure race, several others will be stronger on the 2400m line.

    BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: LIGHTS OF HEAVEN (Caulfield R8): Real sense of timing and trip about this mare for the Cup, and she’s been sensationally backed before and after the barrier draw from $17.00 into $1 0.00 and likely to jump shorter!

  5. #5
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    The following comments are courtesy of the traders at IASbet.

    One of the great races on the calendar and this year shapes up to be a very open race with many chances. There’s been a major reaction to the barrier draw. We expect an even tempo with the likes of Voila Ici ($26) and Glencadam Gold ($5.00) rolling forward from their wide gates and possibly trying to drop anchor midway through the race, which means the race might suit horses closer to the pace. Our top pick is Lights of Heaven ($9.00). The Moody/Nolen factor at Caulfield can’t be dismissed. She was fantastic in the Brisbane Cup, spelled well and has been improving steadily towards this race. She looks nicely placed and if reproduces her Brisbane Cup performance she’ll be very hard to beat. Next pick is the lightly raced, improving import, My Quest For Peace ($10.00). Expect him to sit on the first four or five and he can be very competitive. Last year’s favourite, December Draw, is now into his 4th run returning from injury, and is well on target for this race. He maps well and looks ready to produce his best form. Glencadam Gold has been able to control the race in his last three. He’ll have to deal with more pressure in this race and the Melbourne way of going. This will be a good test for him. Other little chances are with Secret Admirer, who’s been competing at WFA this campaign, and there is some question about her at 2400m, but she does have a nice fitness base and is very consistent. Sneak A Peek ($17)is a lightly raced improver who has had excuses in his last two races. However on his best does look capable at this level. Alcopop ($15) found his form last week and drops 6.5kg for this. He produces his best here at Caulfield and will appreciate a firm track. Some of the other key internationals like Dunaden, Jakkalberry, Americain and Winchester will also be hoping to enhance their carnival prospects in this race. Expect a great competitive race.

 

 

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