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  1. #921
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    Serie A: Sassuolo - Pescara

    Sassuolo have been playing Europa League games and were in Serbia on Thursday for their second leg with Crvena Zvezda,which they drew 1-1, they could largely go through the motions there having won the home tie 3-0.

    It will definitely not be advantage later in the campaign, but having played extra competitive games at this stage of the season, gives the hosts a significant edge IMO and after five very competitive fixture, Sassuolo will be very close to full fitness and looking to build on last week's opening day win at Palermo in front of their own supporters. Newly promoted Pescara are three games behind and would also have returned to pre season a litlle later, or with a shortened break, after their playoff win was not settled until June 9th, 25 days after Serie A ended. The visitors will be fairly pleased with a Matchday 1 draw (2-2) with Napoli, they started strongly there against a very passive opponent and led by two at the break, but tired/got sloppy afterwards and the visitors awoke from their slumber. At the end, Pescara were clinging on for dear life and they will have to save more energy for the second half exchanges today. Pescara have been quite adventurous in the transfer window, but are still getting some of those additions up to speed and today, I feel the hosts will be a little too far ahead in terms of prepardness and fitness levels and they will be very hungry for the points with a trip to Juventus immediately after the international break.

    Sassuolo -1 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket

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  2. #922
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    England League 2: Luton - Wycombe

    I was surprised that Luton Town managed to keep hold of all their promising youngsters in the transfer window, that shows great ambition , infact, they strengthened with the good looking additions of winger Alex Gilliead (Newcastle United) and left-back Jack Senior (Huddersfield Town), Gilliead played a full season at L2 last season and should hit the ground running, adding goals and assists. The Hatters now look a very strong squad and anything less than a serious promotion push is going to be viewed as failure. They are a big club at this level and I spoke about that ahead of a trip to Dagenham last season under old boss John Still .........

    "Town are a very big club in League 2 terms and simply have to be, at the very least, challenging for promotion, a run of four games without a win ( five in all competitions) has left them down in 15th place and whilst that is "only" six points adrift of the play off spots, this feels very much like draw a line in the sand time and a match the Hatters have to find a way to win.

    In comparison, Daggers are tiny, operate on small crowds and a similar sized budget and the fact that they have been a Football League club for nine years and even enjoyed one single season in League 1 is almost solely down to one man and that is Luton boss John Still, who vitually single handedly overhauled the club from top to bottom, saved them from relegation out of the Conference, took them into the FL and then even L1 and did so on a playing budget most managers would have looked at and thought it was the expenses for the ball boys and tea ladies ! Daggers have always stayed within budget, which meant even by Conference standards it is small and they have to sell to even stick to that and what Still did at the club was simply amazing. He knows everyone at Dagenham and I am talking about everyone, including probably half the supporters by name, actually Still knows almost everyove in football, but his heart, or at least a large part of it remains in this corner of East London and speaking about returning this week, it has been almost too painful and he said he just wants to go, play and leave as soon as possible. I guess it is like seeing an old girlfriend you still have feelings for .

    It is not his first return, Town took four points from the h2h meetings last year, drawing 0-0 here, where they played an hour with ten men following a hotly disputed sending off and were later denied what looked a stonewall penalty, that and Town's need for all three points will ensure that there is not too much sympathy, at least on the pitch and the visiting supporters who are going to form at least 50% (1,200 advance tickets sold) of the crowd, can make the trip home happy. Team news is not overly important, the Town squad is on another level, but it is worth noting that Craig Mackail-Smith has busted a gut to get fit for this, he was more or less the first signing that Still made at Dagenham, joining from what was basically 8th tier football (!), he went on to make two big money moves and a good living from football and turned down the offer of League 1 football from at least two clubs to play for his former boss once more. CMS is desperate to play one more time at tiny Victoria Road.

    Town have been getting into good positions, but not seeing out games well, they have led in two of the last three and were level entering injury time in the other and yet only took one point from those games and that has to stop, a free midweek and the extra day to prepare solely for this will have helped after six games inside 21 days previously and I feel we will see a very focused performance from the visitors today."


    Town won that 2-0 ,but Still didn't see the season out and is now back at Daggers, his replacement Nathan Jones had the second half of 15-16 to sort things out and has had plenty of time to build, he has two years left on his contract, but probably knows it has to be this season he makes his mark and he has been given big support by the board.

    Wycombe are struggling financially and have not been done andy favours by a massive injury crisis, despite winning in the EPL Trophy in midweek, the squad named highlighted their issues, they could not fill the bench, it included two players they dare not risk and their 43 yo head coach Gareth Ainsworth, who was one of two substituions made.They have around a third of their squad unavailable and they will struggle to take anything from this fixture.

    Luton Town -0.5 ball 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket

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  3. #923
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    Hi I am here to share the free football betting tips to you.
    Ternana VS Pisa Betting Tips
    1x2 Picks: Ternana
    Handicap Picks: Ternana -0.5
    http://www.goaloo.com/tips/Ternana-V...-B-161020.html

    Roasso Kumamoto vs Yokohama FC Betting Tips
    1x2 Picks: Draw no bet
    Handicap Picks: Roasso Kumamoto +0.25
    http://www.goaloo.com/tips/Roasso-Ku...-2-161029.html

  4. #924
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    Serie A: AC Milan - Udinese

    Milan won 3-2 their last game on home ground, should have been 3-1-/4-1, but could easily have ended 3-3 with Torino missing a late penalty, they then lost 4-2 at Napoli and giving up six goals and a mised penalty is hardly the dream defensive start and whilst they have had 15 days to work on solutions, they clearly need it. Suspensions today to Mbaye Niang and Juraj Kucka are hardly ideal and combined with the injury to Andrea Bertolacci and knocks to others, that leaves them very shorthanded in the middle of the park. Upfront, Niang has been very influential since breaking into the team with six goals and six assists in 18 starts and Milan won just two from 11 when he picked up an injury and was sidelined at the end of last season.

    Udinese have avoided defeat in half of their last ten league and cup visits to the San Siro to play Milan and that alone suggest value in the quote for the visitors, they will travel a little nervously after an opening day mauling at Roma, but have steadied the ship with three points and a cleansheet at home to Empoli and can take a point and a goal or two today (3.75 to score 2+ feels big).

    Udinese +0.75 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket

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  5. #925
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    Champions League: Manchester City - Borussia Monchengladbach

    Few coaches in this competition have as much Champions League experience as Pep Guardiola, in seven years as head coach, he is a perfect seven time semi finalist and two time winner. City made the semis last season and anything less this time round is likely to be seen as failure. Guardiola is not afraid to make the big decisions and Yaya Toure and Joe Hart were quickly made aware that their time had passed, John Stones, Leroy Sane, Gabriel Jesus, Ilkay Gundogan, Claudio Brava and Nolito were signed for a collective 200m and the club have had a major make over. However, his biggest influence has been on the training pitch, where the work is said to have been on another level and it is easy to see that on the pitch, we are only four games in, but at times and in each, although perhaps not yet for 90 minutes, they have played football the like of which we have not seen before in the Premier League. It might seem very early to say that, but you only had to watch the opening 45 minutes of the Manchester derby on Saturday, through which they totally outclassed United, to realise how good they are, or rather, can be and this is only just the very beginning. The effect he has had on Raheem Sterling and John Stones is already apparent and tonight they will have a hungry and in form Sergio Aguero, who is serving a domestic ban, back in the line up.

    BMG are two weeks behind in terms of real match fitness, a light year away with the respective squads and whilst they will have learned plenty from a group stage appearance, they will not take much confidence from the two games with City last season, both of which they lost , conceding six goals and the Manchester side look on a higher plane right now. BMG are coming off a 3-1 defeat at newly promoted Freiburg at the weekend, they went "full strength" there, with 10 of the 11 starters who faced Leverkusen on opening day and started well enough, led at the break, but fell apart late with some shambolic defending and this has the potential to get ugly tonight.

    Manchester City -1.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket

    4.0 for City to score four or more, something they did here at the Etihad in this fixture last season feels too big, given the offensive firepower of the hosts and how qucikly BMG crumbled on Saturday

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  6. #926
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    France Ligue2: Bourg - Le Havre

    Bourg-en-Bresse are back to their free and easy ways, play a very open style, are comfortable on the ball when in possession, quite pleasing on the eye and look vulnerable when defending, in other words, they are fun to watch ! Last season their games produced an average 2.79 goals and only relegated Creteil conceded more. They met a pair of teams with a defend first, ask questions later approach in their two opening games and it took a while to return to normal service, but their last five starts have seen 20 goals with both scoring in each and any time they face a team who will not sit back, we should see goals and plenty of them. The two league meetings with Le Havre last season produced nine goals with eight for HAC and it is hard to see the visitors coming with just a point in mind. They have lost their way after a great start to their season and they are now five league and cup games without a win, through which they have conceded 10 goals in three home starts (!) and we are talking about the pre season promotion favourites here.

    There is no doubt that Le Havre are the stronger squad, but BEBP probably have a little more confidence right now and do play with a bit of a swagger, both to score........1-3 feels about right, but best value has to be ........

    over 2.5 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket

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  7. #927
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    England League Cup: AFC Bournemouth - Preston North End

    I got a very close up look at Preston North End on Saturday, I have to be honest and say that they did not deserve to lose 5-0 to the mighty, mighty Bees, but overall, they played just about where I ranked them ahead of the game, which is definitely below last season's 11th place finish . They have some very big clubs (by Championship standards) below and immediately above them in the table, they could quickly get into real trouble and this is not a league in which it is easy to play catch up, games being ultra competitive, with no easy fixtures and they have a vital "bottom six" clash with local rivals Wigan Athletic (stadiums are just 30 minutes apart) on FRIDAY night and that surely has to take priority.

    So, PNE played at Griffin Park on Saturday, where they were eventually run ragged, now make an even longer trip down to the South Coast on Tuesday on face a Premier League side and play a game in front of the television cameras that they dare not lose in three days time !

    I spoke about the pressure that Simon Grayson was under last week, but he knows that it has to be all about the league and he made 11 changes for the last EFL cup tie and is very likely to go down a similar route this evening. His team started both halves strongly on Saturday and if they had equalised at 0-1 (huge save from Bentley in the Brentford goal, it could have been a different story..... see, I can be unbiased !) but collapsed once the second goal was conceded and the Bees ran riot.

    I assume Bournemouth will rotate too, but they have a very strong squad and can field two largely similar first teams IMO. Easy home win !

    Bournemouth -1 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket

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  8. #928
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    You are doing great notes and predictions.. don't stop doing it.

  9. #929
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    What do you think about Man.United - Man.City in EFL Cup? Will Jose's team take the revenge?

  10. #930
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    England Championship: Preston - Wigan

    Having opposed Preston at Brentford last Saturday (L5-0) and at Bournemouth on Tuesday ( won 3-2 in extra time), I have to take them on again today in their third start inside seven days, against a better rested/prepared local rival. Wigan have been at home for ten days and preparing for this for seven, a period through which North End will have spent 17-18 hours on the team bus. They did rotate heavily for the midweek game, but seven played some part in both, the extra time meant most had more game time than would have been viewed as ideal, both games were draining, other players made the journey to the South Coast anyway and preparation for tonight, would have been severly hampered. Of course, they will have been buoyed by the win at Bournemouth, but the events of the last week seem sure to take a toll at some stage this evening and positive thoughts can quickly disappear and memories of the late capitulation at Griffin Park come to the fore, if things do not go their way early.

    No cup game for Wigan, they have made priorities clear and this season is all about re-establishing themselves in the Championship and avoiding a relegation battle. They have not made a great job of things so far and sit below Preston in the table, with just five points, but they have goals in them, only eight teams have scored more and last season's League 1 joint top scorer and former Brentford striker Will Grigg has hit the ground running again with four goals at the higher level. They have , or had been putting themselves in good positions and not taking advantage and have dropped 7 points already from winning positions, conceding four goals in the last 12 minutes. They have ended the last two games much better and played promisingly in each, two down at highflying Norwich City inside 11 minutes, they dominated much of the next 75 , pulled a goal back and were close to an equaliser time and time again, with the Canaries on the back foot and under severe pressure. A City supporter described the closing stage thus : "You could tell how the balance had swung when the added time board showed 5 minutes and a groan went up from the City faithful. "From total control we were now hanging on for dear life and McGovern again had to be alert to push a close range header away for a corner. "City struggled to clear it and a Wigan forward looked bound to score but muffed his shot at the City goal only for McGovern to spill it. "Fortunately Olsson, my MOM was alert enough to shepherd the ball away from danger. "The cheers at the final whistle were of relief more than anything else."

    They then failed to make the most of several really good chances in a 0-0 draw with Fulham, but there were positives to take from both performances.

    The Latics should be fresher of the two today and the free midweek will have given Gary Caldwell more time to work on what he knows has been their shortcomings, he told the club website...........


  11. #931
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    I guess this game will be for Wigan. They are favorites for me, definitely

  12. #932
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    England Championship: Norwich - Burton

    Briefly, I expect both teams to score and probably Norwich to edge home 2-1/3-2/3-1, something like that. Burton have adapted quite well to life in the Championship, have 9 points on board and only five teams have scored more goals. They are not afraid to take the game to teams and have scored in all four road games and conceded in all nine competitive starts. They are not really operating on a level Championship playing field, with a low budget and determined to stay within their means, they will need as many points as they can collect early season. They were playing non league football seven yeras ago and they have come a very long way in a short time and that almost always catches up with teams, unless they have the backing and that almost always means finances, to stay one step ahead of the game. This is a tough unrelenting league and it will be difficult for the Brewers to survive. That is for another day, for now, this is all still new and wonderful and they will enjoy their trip to Carrow Road.

    I discussed Norwich and their game with Wigan in the Friday notes and how they allowed the Latics back into a game they should have run away with. The Canaries are amongst the favourites for promotion and will be there or thereabouts, but have conceded in their last three home starts and in 6 of their last 7 home starts in their Championship promotion camapign, the season before last. They can be devastating at this level when things click, but the crowd here urges them forward a little too often at times and they can lose their way in games and Albion will get opportunities, both to score @ 2.0-2.05 looks good, but easier to back is ............

    "over" 2.75 goals 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket

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  13. #933
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    Post here please, your predictions for coming Champions League matches.

  14. #934
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    Champions League: Monaco - Bayer Leverkusen

    We sided with the hosts for their opening group game at Wembley against Tottenham ........"Monaco are top of Ligue 1 and were certainly no less impressive than Spurs in a 4-1 away win at Lille on Saturday, they played with great pace and width, so Wembley should suit, they will be stronger today with a couple of regulars returning and arrive full of confidence. ASM upgraded in the summer and feel they are very different from the side who lost 4-1 at White Hart Lane last December in the Europa League. That was a half hearted performance from the visitors who were already on their way out of a competition they were not committed to and they were at the time still playing catch up in Ligue 1 for a Champions League place, their target for the season. Already competition battle hardened through playoff games with Villarreal where they won both legs, I favour them to take a point this evening in what could be a very entertaining contest."

    They won that 2-1 and have taken both home games since, with their "blip", a 4-0 loss at rivals Nice sandwiched in between. It was key that they got back on track on Saturday after that heavy loss and this is a very different ASM to the one we have seen in recent campaigns, they are certainly more vulnerable defensively, but are on a different level at the other end of the pitch. 17 of their last 22 starts have gone "over", including 4 of 5 Champions League games and those 22 matches averaged 3.41 per game.

    Bayer Leverkusen started with a 2-2 home draw with CSKA Moscow and like most German teams are used to playing an offensive style, their last seven group starts have averaged 4.14 goals and were far more open than even that suggests, they scored at Barcelona and Roma (twice) last season and can play their part in another open contest.

    "over" 2.75 goals 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket

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  15. #935
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    I don't think there will be easy pass for Tottenham in away game in Moscow..

  16. #936
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    Yes, 1-0 victory for Hotspur.. I was surprised by the Borussia game's quality yesterday against Real.

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    MLS: Seattle Sounders - Chicago Fire

    Chicago Fire did finally break that dismal road record last month winning 3-0 in Montreal, their first away win in 37 attempts and more than 25 months, you might think that would have kick started a sequence, but no, they have lost their two subsequent road games by a combined 10-3 ! They sit bottom of the East, a win tonight would not change that and you suspect rebuilding for next season will be well underway and any remaining energies saved for their last two home starts, not a game 4,000km away from home, against an in form, motivated opponent.

    Sounders appear to have found some form just in time , they have taken heart from 7 points in their last three starts and huge confidence from a 4-2 win in LA over Galaxy on Sunday. That took them to within three points of a playoff spot, with two games in hand on all the clubs directly above them, they host Real Salt Lake (currently 4th) on the final day of the season (October 23rd) and it is not impossible that Seattle could still snatch that 4th place and that is a huge incentive. It would give them a HOME one leg playoff first round game and the last eight hosting teams have progressed ! Fire don't concede just one, they have two clean sheets in 11 starts, but once allowing a first goal, they have always given up at least two at an average of 2.89 per game and three or more in 6 of 9 away starts.

    Seattle Sounders -1.25 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket

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  18. #938
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    England Championship: Brentford - Wigan Athletic

    Brentford are still not the finished article and will be a better team in six weeks than they are today, they still have two players getting up to speed with Championship pace who already look better than most at this level, two to come back from injury and as a group .they are only just realizing how good they can be.

    I wasn't going to back them today, but odds are too big and my hands are tied, they are unbeaten at home since March, have scored nine in their last two here at Griffin Park and some of the passing in the 4-1 defeat of Reading on Tuesday , was unbelievable. But it is not a 90 minute performance at present and Wigan will get chances, but visiting top scorer Will Grigg was deemed surplus to requirements at Brentford , the hosts will know all about him and (knock loudly on wood !) very few former players have returned and done well in recent campaigns. John Swift on Tuesday was an example , he got a LOT of undeserved abuse and GP is a ground where the crowd can almost touch you and every word from the stands can be heard . Bees get key midfielder Ryan Woods back from suspension today and he will freshen up a team where competition for starting places is fierce at present.

    Brentford -0.75 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket

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  19. #939
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    Serie A: Roma - Inter

    Sit back and enjoy !

    Roma's ten competitive starts this season have averaged 3.3 goals with six producing four or more. In Serie A, since the start of last season they have a 16-5-1 record since the start of last season, a 73% win rate, but they have conceded in 15 (68%) and a whopping 50% of all starts have produced four or more goals . They will look to push forward against anyone, but look terribly vulnerable to any quality counter attacking team.

    Inter have featured a lot in my notes this season ,they were disappointed by their 1-1 home draw with Bologna last week and rested key players for this, in their Europa League trip to Prague in midweek, where they lost 3-1 to Sparta and they have kept just a single clean sheet in eight competitive starts this season and in only 4 of 25 Serie A games. They have big offensive potential, but we have yet to really see it, but they are back under pressure for a result and that might well help them to produce one. They probably need to score twice to get a result and Mauro Icardi and Ivan Perisic have eight goals between them and Icardi has scored four in his last two road outings and Inter have the potential to score a couple.

    "Sick note" Thomas Vermalen is missing again and Roma have conceded nine goals in the five league and Champions League games he has missed and the back up options are just not good enough.

    "over" 3 goals 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket

    Inter to score two or more goals ("over" 1.5) 2.875-3.0 general quote

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  20. #940
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    Hah, there were 3 goals and Inter under 1,5 goals.. Anyway your prediction was close to real.

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    Brazil Serie A: Atletico Paranaense - Chapecoense

    Atletico are 6th, six points behind Santos in fourth place, but with 4th and 5th meeting ( see above) they will close up on one or both with all three points this evening and given that they are 11-2-1 at home, where they have conceded only five goals and with 54% +home wins in the league, it is difficult not to see them as value to do so at close to even money ! They actually have very good fixtures remaining and their next eight starts come against teams with an average league placing of 12.62.

    Chapecoense have performed much better on the road than we have come to expect from them in recent campaigns, but such is the way of these things, that their usually very solid home form has suffered ! However, their are safe(ish) in mid table, have a Copa Sudamerican two legged semi final this month and I would expect them to be selective about which matches they really focus on from here on in, basically the Copa and home games, where they owe supporters a performance or two.

    Atletico are a fantastic 7-0-0 at home when level at half time and waiting for the break is definitely an option, but I will officially go with...........

    Atletico Paranaense -0.5 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket

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  22. #942
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    I have never done the bets on Brazil Seria A matches. Need to try it =)

  23. #943
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    Irish Premier League: Finn Harps - Bray Wanderers

    I want to take on goal shy Finn Harps again today, ahead of Tuesday's trip to Sligo Rovers I wrote ..........

    "Finn Harps arrive without suspended left back Ciaran Coll and striker Dave Scully who are both suspended , also have Josh Mailey unavailable and several other knocks, which will require late tests. They have scored just twice since July 8th, only 19 times all season and have now lost nine in a row and confidence is shot and runs like these are very hard to address. The visitors currently sit four clear of the relegation playoff places and still have to travel to play the team directly below them, they could do with a point or two, but they are more likely to come at home, and they entertain Bray on Friday night and there is a good chance that if they fall behind this evening, that attention will quickly switch to that, a fixture which is more win-able and for which they will have increased options. They have no real replacement for Coll at LB, the unavailable Mailey stepped in the last time he was missing, so that is not an option, it is likely to be a midfielder stepping back and they are already short of left flank options."

    Harps came away with a valuable point in a 0-0 draw, but were a little fortunate, with the hosts missing a late, late penalty.

    They have now played Saturday/Tuesday/Friday with a beat up squad and face a Bray side who have not played for eight days and who are on absolute fire, posting five wins in a row, with a 13-3 goal difference, including three on the road. They have their eyes on 5th place , which would be their second highest finish ever and they would move into that position with all three points this evening.

    Wanderers appointed Harry Kenny head coach in mid June, when they had just 8 points on board from 15 starts, he seriously upgraded the squad in the summer and they have collected 30 points from 14 starts since, an increase of 1.61 points per game, if Bray had performed at this level all season, they would be top of the IPL. If current leaders Dundalk were coming here tonight, they would be quoted as big odds on chances and the visitors look a very attractive price. Striker Ger Pender has scored in the last five league starts and will be keen to extend that club record this evening and Wanderers their 13 match unbeaten run.

    Home boss Ollie Horgan would love to have an option like that, striker Ruairi Keating is definitely out after sustaining ankle ligament damage on Tuesday, fellow forward Dave Scully remains suspended ,veteran attacker Kevin McHugh will also be absent after sustaining a serious hand injury on Wednesday in a coaching session ,Adam Hanlon is a serious doubt. On the plus side they do get Ciaran Coll ( see above) back, but it is goals which are the big issue, that situation is compounded by players missing today and it is hard to see where the next one is coming from, whilst Bray cannot stop scoring !

    Bray Wanderers -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket

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  24. #944
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    What about Europe qualifiers games in this weekend?

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    England League 2: Hartlepool United - Crawley Town

    Crawley Town also made the short list and are such a big price, I also have to take a little something on them. They are up to fifth and just two points off second place and confidence at the club is sky high right now . Much of this is down to new head coach Dermot Drummy who has transformed the mindset at Crawley in just four months, well know in the game, he spent many years working with the Arsenal and Chelsea Academy and U21 teams and was in charge of the Blues teams who won the FA Youth Cup and U21 Premier League and this was an eyecatching appointment for Crawley. He is said to have had a massive influence and he has brought with him six current (loan) and former Chelsea players, who were all desperate to work with him again. Lots of small things have been changed , for example, they set off early yesterday for Hartlepool and stopped and trained en route at the very impressive Leeds United Academy facilities and they just do everything the right way now. Town are unbeaten in five , with four wins, including the last two away starts, where they scored five goals. They were bought by Turkish steel magnate Ziya Eren in March, he owns a club in his homeland and looks to be in this for the long term (with a ten year plan to reach the Championship) and Crawley to be heading in the right direction

    Pool are 0-4-3 in their last seven league at home, also lost 1-0 here to the Sunderland Academy on Tuesday and boss Craig Hignett was awarded a three match touchline ban yesterday and now for the bad news ! The hosts are without eight players today and are hard hit defensively and in central midfield, key absences are goalkeeper Trevor Carson who is on international duty, back up Adam Bartlett has conceded 15 goals in his last four starts, including six this year at 20th placed Stevenage and central midfielder Nicky Featherstone (lost 4 of last 5 he has sat out), his absence is compounded with Michael Woods also missing in the middle of the park. Crawley with the handicap start !

    Crawley Town +0.25 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket

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  26. #946
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    Rooney is dropped by Southgate. the time has come for it.

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    Brazil Serie A: Atletico Mineiro - America Mineiro


    I previewed Atletico's last start, a visit to Corinthians .........

    "Corinthians form has nosedived, they looked firm title contenders through the first 14 games, had 28 points in the bag and were in second place, they have taken just 13 points from the last 14 and are down in 7th, seven points off Copa Libertadores pace and with six teams above them. They might soon be in a position where it will all be about the Copa do Brasil for them and it is possible they will play and might already be doing so, with less caution than we usually expect. AMG are third, four points clear of Santos in 4th and can afford to gamble at present and look to push on for the title. They are currently five adrift of leaders Palmeiras, but have still to host them and a late challenge is far from off the table . They collected 20 points from their first 14 starts, a whopping 32 from the second, which is a 27 point swing with Corinthians and if they had played at this level from the get-go, they would hold a seven point lead at the top of the table, which illustrates how well they have played since, well, mid June, since when they have collected more points than anyone.

    They are fast starters on the road and have a +6 first half goal difference.

    AMG are without defensive midfielder Rafael Carioca tonight, he is away with the national team, but the visitors are 6-1-0 in Serie A starts without him. His absence is offset , IMO, by Corinthians losing right back Fagner , they lost 2-0 at home to Palmeiras in the last game he missed with replacement Leo Principe being run ragged and eventually getting sent off after two yellow cards."


    They drew that 0-0, a result which leaves them in third, 4 and 7 points respectively behind Flamengo and Palmeiras with nine rounds left to play. Third carries with it a place in the Copa Libertadores group stage, but 4th-6th will now get you in to the first stage and that does ease the pressure. Also, the top two both have difficult games today and Atletico have still to host both, so it would be very early to give up on title ambitions.

    America are booked for a quick return to the second tier after promotion last season and are 13 points from safety and propping up the rest of Serie A. However, we can surely expect them to be up for this, in their last derby game of the season and if they can end Atletico's title ambitions, that would be a bonus.

    However, 32 points separate these two, which is more than 1.1 per game and is a true reflection of the difference in quality and Atletico are taking this incredibly seriously and given the home side full respect. There was talk of their four international players being eased back, but Lucas Pratto, Rafael Carioca, Cazares and Erazo have all been rushed back from CONMEBOL World Cup action and go straight into the squad.

    America have conceded two or more goals in 6 of their last 7 starts without keeper Fernado Leal who is suspended and come into this game additionally weakened defensively. They will have to open up at some stage and Atletico can make it 3/3 at home to bottom four teams by a 3-0 scoreline.

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  28. #948
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    I found this link on Youtube 80 matches for this weekend and they are expressed in percentages.
    I need the opinion of someone who understands in this leagues

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bxTH67J2ac

    My favorites games from this video:

    1860 Munchen - Fortuna Dusseldorf 1
    Sassuolo - Crotone 1
    Rapid - Altach 1
    Basel - Luzern 1

  29. #949
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    Let's see what it is =)

  30. #950
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    The result was quite impressive!!!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zG9nXjV2Rmc

  31. #951
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    Liverpool 0 - 0 Manchester United. Goodbye my money

  32. #952
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    Europa League: Viktoria Plzen - Astra Giurgiu

    Plzen are another team who have collected a lot of European experience in double quick time. They have made the group stage of the Champions League twice and the Europa League three times in the last six seasons and made the round of 16 twice in this competition.

    Astra have only played five seasons total in Europe, they have some big name scalps in qualifying, including beating West Ham twice, but to be fair, they were early season ties against distracted teams , not fully committed to the competition. They did make the group stage in 2014-15 when they conceded 15 goals and they have given up 24 in their last 11 away days in Europe. Domestically they have half the points they had at the same stage last season, have won just 3/12 and are conceding at the rate of 1.5 goals per game. They are bottom of the group without a point and have alreday shipped seven goals, including a 4-0 loss away to Roma. That was "only" four as the hosts switched off at the hour mark, decided enough was enough and substituted three key players. Plzen are third and have two points, the top two have four points and are playing out a double header, so a fantastic chance for the home side to move into one of the top two spots and they will surely look for goals tonight, they already have draws with the top two and goal difference could easily come into play. Viktoria are looking for a third straight domestic title and currently trail the leader by two points. so every league game is important, but they need to build momentum and a convincing win here will help not hinder IMO.

    Viktoria Plzen -1.5 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket

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  33. #953
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    J League: Omiya Ardija - Shonan Bellmare

    Shonan are eight points from safety , with nine to play for, but a point for Nagoya would make three wins meaningless and even six results going their way (ain't gonna happen!) would probably still leave them short on goal difference. In other words, preparations for JL2 will have already started, the evil deed can be officially done and dusted today and surely it is better to get that out of the way on the road and make next week's final home start, less painful. Shonan are 1-2-11 in Stage 2 and have not scored in four starts, only 9 times in 16 home games over the full season.

    Omiya came up as champions last season and have had a terrific 2016, they are 6th in the overall table and whilst they have little to play for, 4th would be a fantastic achievement (they are only a point shy of Gamba) and has to be, you feel, a target. They spent ten straight seasons in the top flight until relegation in 2014, before dropping out, they (incredibly) finished between 12th and 15th for each of those previous nine campaigns and 4th would be amazing. So, still some motivation IMO and they could hardly be in better shape, bring unbeaten in six (all comps) with five wins and 12 goals in their last four and they can record a sixth straight home win over Shonan. The visitors are better on the road, where they have collected 14 of 21 points, but most of those came early in the campaign and they have only won once away from home since May 4th, this should not be a draw, we get few at this time of year and there is no good reason for one today and Omiya look the far more likely of the two to claim the win.

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  34. #954
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    For today:


    Bayer Leverkusen – Hoffenheim 1
    Bayern Munich - Borussia Monchengladbach 1
    Arsenal - Midlesbrough 1
    Real Sociedad – Alaves 1

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydVm8p95hEY

  35. #955
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    Scottish Premier League: Hamilton - Aberdeen

    Aberdeen have won six in a row in all competitions, a run which has taken them up to second in the SPL, they will be looking to stay there tonight, ahead of a home game with leaders Celtic at the weekend. Hamilton are in 10th place, which is where they finished last season and you suspect that if you offered that to them again, they would snatch your hand off for it and another year of survival. Teams have got used to the Tigerturf surface here now and Hamilton have won just 7 of 33 home SPL starts since January 1st 2015, they have been helped in that regard this season by an "easy" schedule so far and have yet to face one of the "big 4" at home. They have also lost their last four home midweek games, they entertain basement club Dundee on Saturday, that is the far more win-able fixture and in terms of staying in the SPL, the more important of this week's two games.

    This is a great opportunity for the Dons to put some real pressure on Celtic , who played the Old Firm game on Sunday and a Champions League tie last midweek, they do not play until tomorrow and meet Aberdeen at lunchtime on Saturday, with the return game in Germany with BMG next Tuesday ! But all that will mean far less, if the visitors do not claim all three points this evening.

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  36. #956
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    Brazil Serie A: Sport Recife - Ponte Preta

    Huge game for Sport, they have three of their next four on the road, including trips to two teams battling for Copa spots and sit just two points above the drop zone, with the teams immediately above them in the table having started to pick up their game(s) and points. I have spoken many times about how difficult a venue this is, Recife is a very long trip for almost every team in Brazil ( 5,400 km round trip for PP) and once here, conditions are often stifling and you are asked very different questions by both mind and body. I have no evidence, but I bet there have been a few yellow cards collected on purpose over the years, so that players miss this trip to play Sport. By the way, PP top scorer Roger sits this one out after picking up a yellow in the last game !! The hosts have a 60.27% home win record over the last four seasons, which even in a country where homes "always" run north of 50% is very impressive and to give it some context, is identical to that of Cruzeiro, who are two time champions over the same period.

    Ponte Preta still have a small chance of top 6, but 11 of their 13 wins have come at home and they will have to gamble a little more than usual on the road today and that should play into the hands of Sport. The visitors have not won here in recent times and have conceded seven without scoring on their last three away days and anything other than three points for Recife would both surprise and leave them in trouble.

    Sport Recife -0.75 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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  37. #957
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    Champions League: Borussia M. - Celtic

    Celtic were run ragged in the first leg and lost 2-0, the magin of defeat should have been greater and aside from their performance at home to Manchester City and England-Scotland match ups do have a different dynamic, they look some way short of the quality required to compete at this level currently . Kolo Toure made two horrendous mistakes, he will miss today's game, which might well be a bonus for the visitors, but the loss of left back Kieran Tierney most definitely will not be. The youngster is ever present this season and described by most watchers as their best defender . With BMG surely looking again to press and harry Celtic into mistakes and the Scottish champions with no option but to attack and that is the only way they can play, when you win 77% (last four seasons) of all league games, you have little experience of setting up defensively. They need to win this to get back into (at least) Europa League contention and BMG will be similarly minded as three points is going to guarantee EL football and would actually take them above Manchester City and up into second, unless the Premier League leaders also beat Barcelona ( see below). BMG will be stronger tonight than for the first leg, Celtic will not sit back too long and should be even more vulnerable defensively and one goal, should see this get very stretched.

    "over" 3 goals 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket

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  38. #958
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    Checkatrade Trophy: Sunderland U23 - Notts County

    Hosts are in with a point, County need to win. The visitors will surely be up for a visit to the Stadium of Light, even in front of one man and his dog, five of their six league wins this season have come on the road . Head coach John Sheridan said:"I don't expect the crowd to be big, but it's a beautiful stadium and it's a lovely pitch to go and play football on."It's a game we want to win, and hopefully the players will go and do that. "We know if we win we go through. "The players know that."Not many people will know much about their players, but I went to watch them against Rochdale and they've got some good, bright, young players."Technically they are very good and it will be a good test for us. "But we will have more experience and hopefully we can affect the game the way we want to."At Premier League academies they get all these luxuries - it's a different world."But I think they will respect coming up against the teams from League One and League Two, they will realise it's a tough old game."It is totally different to academy football and I think it's good for the younger players from Premier League clubs to see what it takes to earn a living at that level.

    It says a lot about Sheridan that he personally travelled five hours on a midweek night to watch future opposition in this competition and he is not going to put in that kind of effort and not demand at least the same from his players and they should make their experience tell.

    Notts County +0.25 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket

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  39. #959
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    World Cup Qualifiers: Northern Ireland - Azerbaijan

    Azerbaijan are unbeaten through three group games and have yet to concede, keeping clean sheets against both Norway and the Czech Republic and holding a surprise second place in Group C behind big favourites Germany. It is only the second playoff spot that is realistically up for grabs and the visitors would take a very firm grip on it, were they to win in Belfast. Northern Ireland are not exactly full of goals and the absences of Stuart Dallas and Jamie Ward lessen their offensive threat and without Ward, the Irish are an incredibly bad 1-9-16 in the last six years, the win coming over the Faroe Islands and that sequence included a 1-1 home draw with Azerbaijan. They have been starting with Josh Magennis up front, with Ward in the secondary role in recent games, Magennis had just 28 goals in the SPL in five seasons and is hardly banging them in regularly for Charlton Athletic this season in the third tier of English football (a goal every 400 minutes) and it is easy to make a case for Azerbaijan keeping the Irish fairly quiet. A goal for the visitors should be enough for a point (aside from against San Marino the Irish have only scored more than one in 2 of 12 starts) and they might not even need that and this game feels like it has been priced wrongly and based on what was perceived as a strong Euro showing for Northerm Ireland, where they actually lost 3/4 and they have failed to score in six of their last eight starts. Azerbaijan have two teams in the group stages of the Europa League, with domestic champions Qarabag, who supply eight of this squad, in good position to qualify and this is clearly a footballing nation on the rise.

    Azerbaijan +0.5 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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  40. #960
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    Championship: Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United

    Incredibly, given they lead the Championship, United lost at home for the third time this season last weekend, they also lost at Hull City on penalties in midweek in the League Cup with a much changed team, but it is only about getting back to the Premier League for the Magpies. On the road they are 7-1-1 and have been scoring at the rate of two per game, they seem happier away, where they get a little more freedom and teams are not raising their game playing in famous old St James' Park, the biggest stadium and crowd many Championship players will have faced.

    Forest can only really play one way, their games have produced an average of 3.56 goals (1.05 above the divisional mean) and they are urged forward by the crowd here and are too gung ho at times. Both teams have scored in the last 11 Championship games at the City Ground and, in all competitions, they have not kept a clean sheet in 14 , conceding 2.0 per game and allowing 3+ on five occasions ( 35.7%). Given that percentage and that United are top scorers in the Championship and will probably need 2+ goals to win, the visitors look good value at 3.50-3.60 (circa 28%) to score three or more.

    The hosts do not have many "going" days, but are coming off two , back to back road wins scoring seven goals, when they do, they can be unstoppable, but usually for 30-45 minutes, not 90 ! This should be entertaining.

    Newcastle United to score three of more 3.50-3.60 general quote...........there is 3.70 in places.

    "over" 3 goals 2.40 asian line/Sportmarket

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