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Thread: US Open Men's

  1. #1
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    US Open Men's

    The US Open tennis kicks off on Monday (local time). Rafael Nadal is the defending men's champion, although World No 1 Novak Djokovic will start as the firm favourite. Andy Murray also enters the tournament in good form.

    You can view the draw at the official US Open website. Live scores can be viewed at the Live Scores section of Australia Sports Betting.

    The best odds for tournament winner betting will likely be found at Betfair. Below are selected winner odds for the tournament favourites (subject to change):


  2. #2
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    Here is a good preview of the men's draw:

    http://www.tennisearth.com/news/tenn...All-537093.htm

  3. #3
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    So who's doing what for the US Open ? Ive got $10 @$3.67 on the following multi for the 1st round:

    MENS:
    Michael Yani vs Bernard Tomic
    Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Richard Gasquet
    Pablo Andujar vs Juan Carlos Ferrero
    Tommy Haas vs Jonathan Dasnieres De Veigy
    Grigor Dimitrov vs Gael Monfils

    WOMENS:
    Petra Kvitova vs Alexandra Dulgheru
    Shuai Peng vs Varvara Lepchenko

    Ive tried to pick certainties with some decent odds... Im sure a better deal could be done, im just being a little cautious for the 1st round.
    Last edited by Goodsy; 29th August 2011 at 06:14 PM.

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    Hi Goodsy,

    With so many lopsided first round matches a multibet is probably a good way to go.

    Here are some of my picks, although I haven't finalised which will be singles and which will be included in multibets. My selections are highlighted in bold.

    Women:

    • Barrois vs Goerges (1.28)
    • Peer vs Mirza (3.25) <== I may back Mirza to win in three sets
    • Errani vs Kuznetsova (1.44)
    • Medina Garrigues (1.36) vs Knapp
    • Rodina (5.30) vs Cetkovska
    • Kudryavtseva (2.45) vs Rodionova
    • Wickmayer (1.47) vs Cristea
    • Razzano (1.82) vs Pironkova
    • Johansson (1.93) vs Suarez Navarro

    Men:

    • Stepanek (1.52) vs Kohlschreiber
    • Dasnieres De Veigy vs Haase (1.10)
    • Baghdatis vs Isner (1.36)
    • Roddick (1.07) vs Russell

    Pennetta vs Rezai is one of the best games of the first round. They were unlucky to be drawn each other.

  5. #5
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    Man even being conservative on the 1st round I bombed out of my multi... Kvitivoa cost me, how the heck did she lose ?? Talk about annoyed.. I was trying to avoid the upset and managed to find it.

    Back to the drawing board for Day 2.. down $10 so far.

  6. #6
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    Women's betting is always tricky. I remember losing heavily when Clijsters (soon after winning the US open) lost to Patty Schnyder after serving up something like 15 double faults. So much for a 1.05 safe bet

    At least the men (A) can serve their way out of trouble and (B) play a best of five and not best of three in Grand Slams.

    Some of your picks are quite intruiging Punters United. Do you have a particular methodology or do you watch a ton of tennis?

  7. #7
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    Damn frustrating isnt it pominoz..

    Ive done 4 multi bets for tonight.. ive gone a 7 deep multi and a 3 deep multi in the mens, each paying roughly around the $4 mark. Also done the same in the Womens.. so ive got $40 on the line. As long as one of them gets up, im even on day 2.. if 2 of them get up im profiting for the tournament. So heres hoping I can kick off the major with a profit now..

  8. #8
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    Good luck with the multis Goodsy. Hopefully you will avoid any more nasty surprises.

    I have a few tournament winner bets going, but haven't ventured into any match bets yet.

  9. #9
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    Here are my results so far.

    Women:

    •Barrois vs Goerges (1.28) WIN
    •Peer vs Mirza (3.25) LOST IN THREE SETS
    •Errani vs Kuznetsova (1.44) WIN
    •Medina Garrigues (1.36) vs Knapp WIN
    •Rodina (5.30) vs Cetkovska LOST IN THREE SETS
    •Kudryavtseva (2.45) vs Rodionova WIN
    •Wickmayer (1.47) vs Cristea WIN
    •Razzano (1.82) vs Pironkova LOST IN TWO SETS
    •Johansson (1.93) vs Suarez Navarro LOST IN THREE SETS

    Men:

    •Stepanek (1.52) vs Kohlschreiber WIN
    •Dasnieres De Veigy vs Haase (1.10) WIN
    •Baghdatis vs Isner (1.36) STILL TO PLAY
    •Roddick (1.07) vs Russell STILL TO PLAY

    I varied my wager amounts based on confidence, so I'm comfortably up thus far. Had you wagered $5 on each of the 11 matches that have resulted you would have returned of $53.10 for a loss of $1.90.

    Of my three > 2.00 odds selections, one won at 2.45 odds, while the other two at 3.25 and 5.30 odds lost in three sets, which I feel justifies their selection.

    pominoz, to answer your question, for this round I looked at the head to head form guides => http://www.matchstat.com/AllFixtures/

    I've played competitive tennis myself, and I know that there some players in life you should beat but repeatedly lose to, and vice versa. There was a player I knew back when I was in high school who could not beat me for the life of him, despite him being a far higher ranked and (I'd be the first to admit) a better player. My style of play simply didn't suit him.

    As a professional example, Andy Murray often has the wood over Federer, but he's frequently given outsider status with the bookmakers. You can check out their history using this link:
    http://www.matchstat.com/index.php?C...d_Player2=1075

    Andy went on a 6-1 run against Federer between 2006 and 2009. During that time his odds were:
    17.92 -> Andy won
    4.42 -> Andy won
    2.62 -> Andy lost
    3.22 -> Andy won
    2.45 -> Andy won
    1.95 -> Andy won (Federer was shorter odds at 1.83)
    2.07 -> Andy won

    I obviously missed the boat with his 17.92 odds win, but I was able to clean up after that, because bookies didn't factor in the head to head form sufficiently.

    Hope that answers your question.

  10. #10
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    That certainly answers my question, cheers Punters United

    Matchstat looks to be a great resource, thanks for the link.

    I will continue to focus on tournament winner betting until I get more fixtures where I'm familiar with both players.

    My winner picks at the moment are Serena Williams for the women and Djokovic or Murray for the men. I don't rate Nadal's chances at this stage based on his form in Montreal and Cincinnati.

  11. #11
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    Have been comparing odds at TABsportsbet and sportsbet.

    TAB has better odds for ATP matches but sportsbet is monstering them in WTA!!! This was looking at favourites only.

  12. #12
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    I've made a couple of multi bets where I've bundled sub 1.03 selections with my main pick to get an odds boost:

    Federer v Sela
    Tsonga v Bubka
    S. Williams v Krajicek
    Vinci v Cornet <-- riskiest pick at 1.27
    Overall odds: 1.33

    Federer v Sela
    Tsonga v Bubka
    S. Williams v Krajicek
    Fish v Jaziri
    Djokovic v Berlocq
    Stepanek v Monaco <-- riskiest pick at 1.22
    Overall odds: 1.326

    My latest winner picks at the moment are Serena Williams for the women and Djokovic/Murray/Fish (highly speculative) for the men.

  13. #13
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    Stepanek retired hurt (refunded) but everyone else got up.

    I may employ that strategy again for other betting this weekend.

  14. #14
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    So apparantly US Open is still on... I still got bets sitting there waiting for players to go back on court.

    Got $5 on Stosur @2.25, I did 2 small(er) outsider bets.
    $2 on Muller over Nadal @8.75 Nadal looked like he is suffering from cramps and may hurt him if Muller can get him running.
    $2 on Pavlyuchenkova over S.Williams @8.75 Giving it a go, Pav is capable of winning the match and the odds were juicy.. so slapped a small $2 just in case...

    Been waiting for a couple of days now.... maybe some play tonight ? maybe not ?

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    gutted to miss out on stosur... she had a 6-2 record against zvonerava and 2+ odds... completely forgot about that game until it was too late

    nadal was arguably saved by the rain delay.. 3-0 down first set then went on to win the next day.

  16. #16
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    Ive got $5 on Federer over Djokovic to win 3-1 sets @6.25 and another $5 on Federer to win 3-2 sets at 6.25

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    Hi guys, below are some head-to-head stats for the semi finals. I think Murray would rather be playing Federer while Djokovic would rather be playing Nadal. We could end up with a Nadal v Federer final, but had the fixtures been different it could have been Djokovic v Murray!

    Djokovic (1.51) v Federer (2.55)
    21/2011 ATP French Open (FRA) Clay Roger Federer Novak Djokovic 7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5)
    10/2011 ATP Indian Wells (USA) Hard Novak Djokovic Roger Federer 6-3 3-6 6-2
    8/2011 ATP Dubai (UAE) Hard Novak Djokovic Roger Federer 6-3 6-3
    3/2011 ATP Australian Open (AUS) Hard Novak Djokovic Roger Federer 7-6(3) 7-5 6-4
    I like Goodsy's set betting approach. You'd expect both players to get at least a set.

    Murray (2.95) v Nadal (1.40)
    5/2011 ATP Wimbledon (GBR) Grass Rafael Nadal Andy Murray 5-7 6-2 6-2 6-4
    21/2011 ATP French Open (FRA) Clay Rafael Nadal Andy Murray 6-4 7-5 6-4
    15/2011 ATP Monte-Carlo (MON) Clay Rafael Nadal Andy Murray 6-4 2-6 6-1
    47/2010 ATP London (GBR) I_Hard Rafael Nadal Andy Murray 7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(6)
    32/2010 ATP Toronto (CAN) Hard Andy Murray Rafael Nadal 6-3 6-4
    On hard courts, Murray has a 3-3 record against Nadal, so a small punt at 2.95 odds may be worth a shout.

    Kerber (4.50) v Stosur (1.20)
    They've never played, but you'd have to be bold to back Kerber. She has defeated Davis, Radwanska, Kudryavtseva, Niculescu and Pennetta to get to this point, while Stosur has had to play the likes of Petrova, Kirilenko and Zvonareva. Kerber is 23 years old, so it's not as if she's a newcomer to the scene. With all this said, 1.20 is a tad miserly.

    Wozniacki (4.15) v S. Williams (1.23)
    They haven't played each other since 2009.
    43/2009 WTA Doha (QAT) Hard Serena Williams Caroline Wozniacki 6-4 0-1 ret.
    2/2009 WTA Sydney (AUS) Hard Serena Williams Caroline Wozniacki 6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(3)
    I'd back Williams, but again the odds are miserly.

  18. #18
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    Missed out on Federer in the semis... shame.

    So.. Stosur made the womens final... she is paying juicy odds to, admittedly she is playing an in-form Serena Williams. Ive gone $5 on Stosur 2-1 @10

    Im backing the Aussie in this one... she is destined to win. Atleast thats what my betting account is telling me :-/

  19. #19
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    You did well to back Stosur Goodsy. With a 3-4 record against Serena before the match the odds were always too generous. Shame she did it in straight sets, I don't think anywone saw that coming.

    I had backed Serena at the start of the tournament and then hedged for the final by backing Stosur h2h.

    I didn't get a chance to see anything of the Federer v Djokovic match, but it must have been epic.

    Borrowing from Punters United's data link, the head to head record for Djokovic v Nadal is 14-16. Djokovic has won all three matches between the two so far in 2011.

    For the set betting the shortest odds are on Djokovic to win 3-1, which is the score I had in mind.

    I backed Djokovic before the start of the tournament, so I now need to decide whether or not to hedge.

  20. #20
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    Im happy and over the moon for Stosur.. but man what was I thinking not putting money on Stosur 2-0 !! That was paying $7... what a golden opportunity missed :-(

    Ahh well... will get over it............. eventually..

    Well done Stosur ..

  21. #21
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    Those are some nice picks. I think tennis is the most predictable sport in the business.

    Novak also got a nice Youtek IG racquet which I think boost his performance.

 

 

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