Django's Plays

[Django]

Created this thread to document my plays, predictions & insight on MMA/AFL/NRL/NBA/MLB/Padball and whatever else, so I can keep track of my progress.
This way's more fun than a spreadsheet, or potentially disastrous for my e-reputation
Don't want to maintain separate threads for each sport so this seems like the appropriate section to do it in.

Any feedback/input is welcomed!

AFL Round 24
Suns vs Hawks
Hawthorn 1-39 @ 2.40 (WIN)

With the Hawks omissions I think this will be a close one, little worried Suns may get an upset. Considered playing the +39.5 pyol but it's only $1.67 and I think the value in the 1-39 is worth the risk.


NRL
New Zealand Warriors vs North Queensland Cowboys
(1-12) New Zealand @ 3.10 (WIN)

My preferred spreads for what I think will be close ones is -3.5 or -5.5, this is at 6.5. Warriors probably win in the region of 4 or 6 points. I doubt the Warriors win by more than two converted tries so once again the value in the margin is too good to pass up.

Wests Tigers -12.0 @ $1.93 (LOSS)

AFL/NRL SU Picks for the Day multi

Wests Tigers @ 1.25
New Zealand Warriors @ 1.48
West Coast @ 1.15
Carlton @ 1.70
Sydney @ 1.14
Western Bulldogs @ 1.10
Hawthorn @ 1.17
@ 5.31 (LOSS)

Will add more later.

Friggen bluebaggers.

[pominoz]

Cool thread Django. I've been tempted to do one of these myself.

You're off to a good start with the Hawks.

Anyway if it all goes to custard you can simply get a new username

[Django]

Thanks pominoz, yep cashed that Hawks 1-39, played Suns Live 4Q time +11.5 @ $1.85 too.

haha I've done one of these on a punting board with 150k members, predominantly douchebags, that's not always so friendly. It's good to put yourself and your plays out there is nice to get feedback on your plays and the transparency helps keep your capping sharper imo. I won't disappear if I hit a string of losses. I man up to my losses! I'm going through a very nice patch at the moment though. Almost tempted to raise my stakes considerably.

[Goodsy]

Yeah nice thread Django... liken it.

The Warriors I was looking at picking them with a -5 start @$1.72, though I do like your thinking with the 1-12 win, much better odds.. you would think it would be a close game.

I like your multi to.. might do something similar with some adjustments to starts..

[Django]

Thanks Goodsy!

Yeah I don't play straight bets at under 1.50. I don't see the risk/reward. I will occasionally multi a bunch of short moneylines I'm confident on winning but not sure about playing the spread/margin or total.
Kinda risky but they can be a sharp fun bet if you pick the right games. I had a few with Collingwood when I felt during the week play the 1-39 leave the ML out of my multi's and I ignored myself.

Lions have killed several multi's for me this year, either betting for or against them, looks like Sydney is pulling away now though. Eagles and Wests I'm fairly confident win. Carlton and Warriors are the ones I'm a little worried about the dog getting up.

Hope you guys are having a good day with your bets!

Playing
Sydney 3Q -12.5 @ $1.85 (LOSS)
Lions win 3Q by 1 point after losing the 2Q by 37

Carlton -5.5 @ $1.92 (LOSS)
West Coast Eagles -34.5 @ $1.92 (WIN)
Double @ $3.69 (LOSS)

Phil Baroni vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida
2: (Straight) Yoshiyuki Yoshida @ 1.87 (WIN)

[Django]

Sunday's bets

Colorado Rockies (A White) @ San Diego Padres (C Luebke) - San Diego Padres @ 1.70 (LOSS)

Added
Andre Berto by KO/TKO/Disq @ $1.80 (WIN)

Canterbury 1-12 @ $2.95/$3.10 sportingbet/sportsbet (LOSS)
Damn last minute try and conversion!

Port Adelaide ML @ $2.10 (WIN)

Brisbane Broncos 1-12 @ $3.15 (WIN)

North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.50 (WIN)

Roosters vs Storm Under 40.5 @ $1.87 (LOSS)

1: (1-12) Brisbane @ 3.05
2: (1-39) North Melbourne @ 2.30
2: (1-12) Melbourne @ 3.10
@ $21.75 (LOSS)

SU Picks for the day.
Colorado Rockies (A White) @ San Diego Padres (C Luebke) - San Diego Padres (C Luebke) @ 1.70
Jan Zaveck v Andre Berto - Andre Berto (USA) @ 1.20
Canterbury vs Canberra - Canterbury @ 1.27
Northern Bullants vs Bendigo - Northern Bullants @ 1.70
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne - Port Adelaide @ 2.28
Brisbane vs Manly - Brisbane @ 1.22
Richmond vs North Melbourne - North Melbourne @ 1.60
Sydney vs Melbourne - Melbourne @ 1.38
@ $27.05 (LOSS)

Re-laid my SU picks as Padres are likely going to kill the above one
North Ballarat vs Williamstown - Williamstown @ 1.50
Canterbury vs Canberra - Canterbury @ 1.27
Northern Bullants vs Bendigo - Northern Bullants @ 1.70
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne - Port Adelaide @ 2.28
Brisbane vs Manly - Brisbane @ 1.22
Richmond vs North Melbourne - North Melbourne @ 1.60
Sydney vs Melbourne - Melbourne @ 1.38
@ $18.84 (LOSS)


7 legger of my tips for NRL/AFL/VFL margins.
Melbourne Storm 1-12 @ 3.10
Canterbury Bulldogs 1-12 @ 3.10
Brisbane Broncos 1-12 @ 3.15
North Melbourne 1-39 @ 2.40
Port Adelaide @ 2.15
Williamstown 1-39 @ 2.20
Northern Bullants 1-39 @ 2.25
@ 773.19 (LOSS)

[Mike Wilson]

Great idea for a thread mate
Hopefully we can see a few more readers get involved.
Good luck with your tips!

[Django]

Thanks Mike

First tip is looking shaky, Padres sucking it up big time. Hopefully they can score 2 in the bottom of the 9th and salvage me a win!

[the_burninator]

Great idea mate, you may have inspired me to start my own. I think it's great because it will teach discipline. Good luck..

[Django]

Yeah it does teach discipline, if you're gonna post your plays you don't wanna be making silly ones!

I try to keep a mix of sensible "pro" betting and rec punting even though I only wager smallish stakes, usually my straight bets cover the outlay on multi's if most of them hit. Multi's hitting is just a cherry on top and a big boost to my balance if I sweep.

Bloody Storm

Today I've got a multi riding
2: (Straight) Andy Murray @ 1.08
2: (Straight) Samantha Stosur @ 1.40
2: (Straight) Texas A&M @ 1.15
2: (Straight) Detroit Tigers (M Scherzer) @ 1.74
1: (Straight) Sabine Lisicki @ 1.80
@ $5.45 (LOSS)

Lisicki you bitch! Last leg fails again

[gonzo]

Give us some MMA django

[Goodsy]

Hey django the last leg of my recent multis have been annoying also.

Bloody storm cost me 2 multis and a single last night.

I put 10 on Detroit in MLB this morning, noticed they had a thumping win today.

[Django]

Think there might be a strikeforce card on this week Gonzo. Need to check the calendar but there's a heap of events coming up.

Nice one Goodsy!
I was gonna put $12 on the Storm HT/NT double, glad I didn't! Under was trash anyway.
Wish I had have played Detroit straight, that was my main pick for the day. I was in a rush this morning to get down the park to kick the footy around, for some reason just did the multi.

[Django]

Geelong ML @ $1.70 (WIN)

Chancing a lil on bet365 scorecast - Steve Johnson first goal @ Geelong 37+ @ $41 (LOSS)

South Africa vs Wales: South Africa -13.5 @ $2.03 - $10 RWC freebet on Titanbet.

Looks like I have $10 @ $4.50 on Australia Outright to win RWC. Thought I could lay the freebet on that, it's only the first round of games. Titanbet won't void it.

Wests Tigers ML @ $2.15 (WIN)

8 Leg Multi of AFL/NRL finals.
Geelong 1.67
Wests 2.10
Collingwood 1.22
Brisbane 1.72
St.Kilda 1.38
Manly 1.42
Carlton 1.38
Melbourne 1.28
@ 25.47

[Django]

Not gonna be a good day for tall forwards at the G
Andrew Krakouer Most Goals @ $12

Brisbane Broncos ML @ $1.75

Superleague
Warrington -12.5 @ 1.90
Bradford -9.5 @ 1.80

Trying a few crazy multi's, well crazier than usual.

Collingwood (-30.5) @ 2.00
Brisbane (-4) @ 2.00
(1-39) St Kilda @ 2.10
(1-12) Manly @ 3.10
(1-39) Carlton @ 2.20
Melbourne (-12) @ 2.00
$114.58

Rafael Cavalcante @ 1.65
Antonio Silva @ 1.57
Roger Gracie @ 2.10
Ronald Souza @ 1.25
Sergei Kharitonov @ 3.00
Manly Sea Eagles 1-12 @ 3.10
Melbourne Storm @ 2.10 (-12.0)
Brisbane Broncos @ 2.10 (-4.0)
Carlton 1-39 @ 2.15
St Kilda 1-39 @ 2.05
Collingwood @ 2.10 (-32.5)
1.67 @ 2581.35/4310.85

MLB
Trying a 14 teamer on bet365
(R Nolasco & R Ohlendorf must start) FLA Marlins0.0 @ 1.84
(B Norris & Tom Milone must start) WAS Nationals0.0 @ 1.84
(Casey Coleman & M Pelfrey must start) NY Mets0.0 @ 1.72
(Roy Halladay & Shaun Marcum must start) PHI Phillies0.0 @ 1.75
(R Delgado & Edwin Jackson must start) STL Cardinals0.0 @ 1.66
(H Bailey & J Chacin must start) COL Rockies0.0 @ 1.71
(M Latos & D Hudson must start) ARI Diamondbacks0.0 @ 1.58
(C Kershaw & T Lincecum must start) SF Giants0.0 @ 1.84
(J Guthrie & B Cecil must start) TOR Blue Jays0.0 @ 1.61
(K Slowey & B Penny must start) DET Tigers0.0 @ 1.60
(J Lackey & W Davis must start) BOS Red Sox0.0 @ 1.90
(B McCarthy & Colby Lewis must start) TEX Rangers0.0 @ 1.54
(Jeanmar Gomez & Mark Buehrle must start) CHI White Sox0.0 @ 1.60
(Bartolo Colon & J Weaver must start) NY Yankees0.0 @ 2.22
.25 @ 2,338.60/584.40