Burn's Plays

[the_burninator]

Inspired by Django; my main sports are AFL, Rugby, NRL, American Sports and Soccer, although everything is a possibility. I have a few RWC bets to start with.

NZ/ Aust./ SA to win their pools @1.64 (2)
Ireland -34.5 v USA @2.00 (1)

GL everyone, remember don't follow anyone blindly, these are mainly for disciplinary reasons.

[pominoz]

Good stuff Burn. I plan to start a thread of my own shortly.

I'm looking forward to the RWC. Nice to have a major sporting event in a convenient time zone for a change.

[the_burninator]

Be good to see some more tips on this forum, might even add some write ups if/when time permits.

Got some early NCAAF plays, before the lines move.
Oregon State vs Wisconsin -18.0 @1.826 (1)
Cincinnati vs Tennessee -6.0 @1.952 (1)
Stanford -19.5 vs Duke @1.769 (1)

Will have some more on Saturday, hopefully some underdogs..

GL

[pominoz]

Interesting to see you follow the NCAA football. From a spectator perspective I almost prefer it to the NFL due to the crazy play calls and mistakes.

I watch the occasional game on Foxtel but have always been overwelmed from a betting research perpsective due to the massive number of fixtures. Do you have particular teams you track?

Good luck with your picks.

[the_burninator]

It is very difficult to follow over here, and even harder to bet on due to the craziness and 'amatureness'. For example last week alot of people where on Wisconsin-34.5. However Wisconsin missed an extra point, needless to say they won by 34 points. Its all about pre-season research and following whats going on, on Saturday (Sunday here) and jumping on the best numbers as soon as they come out. Wisconsin and Stanford have already moved 3 points, so i have a better number. Also its easy to get carried away and jump on 10+ games as there are 120 schools so 60 games a week, its better to just zone in on a few specific ones you like and ignore the others.

Check out my initial thoughts on the NFL in the 'other sports' section, do you follow the NFL?

[pominoz]

I had noticed some of the lines had moved in your favour. I managed to visit the Stanford stadium when I was in high school, so Stanford is a team I have a soft spot for.

The amateur aspect is one of the things that makes college football fun to watch, but scary to bet on. I don't know if it's just me, but you tend to get more adventurous play calls at the college level. Even the other day I saw a play where the QB threw a lateral pass behind the line of scrimmage to a teammate. The teammate then threw down field to the QB. The college QBs also seem to have much more time in the pocket to make a pass, so the good teams seem to pick up a ton of first downs.

Your NFL thoughts are very interesting. I'll make a reply to them shortly.

I do enjoy watching NFL games, but I usually only make one wager or two each round, as I tend to rely heavily on other pundit's advice. I just can't find the time to get fully acquainted with many teams.

I attended an American international school when growing up, so I played a lot of school yard football (no helmets, etc). My interest in American football picked up when I had to play it in P.E. class. I suddenly appreciated what everyone's roles where and what was taking place during run plays. Because it was in class we had to rotate through all the positions (except QB), regardless of our size, which made for some hilarious mismatches. Even though it was flag football you'd get some offsensive linesman absolutely flattened by the bigger kids.

[the_burninator]

I find the NFL perfect timing becuase as the AFL season finsihes, the NFL season begins. Love the spectical that the NFL brings. Safest way to go is with underdogs. It's always better to get points then give them.

Have a MLB play today;

Milwaukee Brewers (Greinke) @ St Louis Cardinals (Carpenter) @1.97 (1)

This line is getting crunched in. Two great pitches going head to head in the one. I'll take the better one as an underdog..

[the_burninator]

I don't really like futures, because your tying your money up for so long. But there are two NFL futures that I just can't pass up.

Both to win their respective divisions;

Saints @2.25 (2)
Chargers @1.40 (2)

There where a few other regular season win totals that I liked, so if you are futures inclined may want to look further into it. See the NFL thread in the other sports forum for those..

[the_burninator]

Not a good start to the punting journal;

Milwaukee Brewers (Greinke) @ St Louis Cardinals (Carpenter) @1.97 (1) LOSS

YTD: 0-1-0 -1.0

Got my first play for the NFL season. Couldn't decide on a side (may add in-game). Going with a prop.

Ryan Grant under61.5 Rushing Yards @1.87 (1)

Good luck all..

[the_burninator]

Adding LIVE:

Got on NO Saints+7.5 @1.90 (1)

They have the momentum..

[the_burninator]

Too early to go for those ballsy calls. That's a big momentum shifter..

[the_burninator]

Dumb play calling on that final play too. Payton couldnt handle the hot situations.

NO Saints+7.5 @1.90 (1) LOSS
Ryan Grant under61.5 Rushing Yards @1.87 (1) WIN

YTD 1-2-0 -1.13

Rest of my NFL plays;
Chargers-8.5 @1.90
Pats-6.5 @1.90
Cowboys+5.5 @1.90
Bill+6.0 @1.90

6 Point Teaser;
Titans+8.0/ Steelers+7.5 @1.83

Waiting for gametime to play another teaser colts+/ under

[pominoz]

Bad luck on the Saints +7.5. The momentum was certainly shifting back and forth during that one.

When the Packers were up 14-0 I backed them to win at 1.16. In hindsight it wasn't the smartest move, but it felt pretty good to watch Randall Cobb's kick off return for a touch down during an otherwise poor 3rd qtr for GB.

Overall I enjoyed the game, but not a great night for either defense. As good as Aaron Roger is, the Saints helped to make him look good.

[the_burninator]

Dragons H2H @1.75 (1)

I've got some interesting thoughts on the Saints D. In a rush so will share my analysis later.

[the_burninator]

Hopefully the American Football is kinder to me this weekend;

Dragons H2H @1.75 (1) LOSS

Adding some NCAAF;
BYU+7.0 @1.90 (1)
Central Michigan+10.5 @1.90 (1)
FAU+32.5 @1.92 (1)
Fresno St.+28.5 @1.91 (1)

St Kilda v Sydney either team under15.5 @3.10 (1)

Will update YTD later.

GL all..