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**blackswan** · 30 September 2014, 05:18 PM

Here's an update from Week 4:

Miami H2H @ 1.53 - WIN (easily)
Indianapolis H2H @ 1.30 - WIN (easily)
Pittsburgh H2H @ 1.29 - Loss (I'm amazed by that result, WTF Pittsburgh?)
Baltimore H2H @ 1.58 - WIN (easily)
San Diego H2H @ 1.14 - WIN (easily)
Atlanta H2H @ 1.67 - Loss (congrats to Teddy Bridgewater for passing for 317 yards in his first career start)
Dallas +3.0 at the Line @ 1.97 - WIN (easily)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +5.2 units on 70 units wagered.

I also had a winning pick of Kansas +3.0, but I didn't included it in my original post, so I won't include it in the results.

**blackswan** · 2 October 2014, 02:43 PM

For Week 5 I'm going to change things up and make picks for all 15 games that are on. I'm tired of watching my predictions for other fixtures that I didn't write picks for end up being correct!

Green Bay H2H @ 1.29
Green Bay have a dominant H2H record as the favourite (since last year 8-1-1 as the favourite, 1-7 as the underdog). Green Bay have a 7-1-1 home record against Minnesota in recent years. Also Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater injured his ankle last week so even if he does play he will have had limited practice. Minnesota have a terrible away record.

Chicago +3.0 @ 1.80
Carolina should win but Chicago have a good record against them and Carolina have been disappointing in the last couple of weeks.

Philadelphia H2H @ 1.36
St Louis QB Austin Davis has been impressive, but defensively they look weak. Philadelphia look good this season.

NY Giants H2H @ 1.50
The Giants changed their offensive system and got off to a slow start this season, but they've come good in the last couple of weeks. Atlanta have a terrible away record. I don't think they like playing outdoors!

New Orleans H2H @ 1.20
New Orleans were dreadful last week but they are a completely different team when they're at home. Tampa Bay are a poor road team and they've lost their last six against New Orleans.

Cleveland +2.5 @ 1.95
I don't think Cleveland are as bad a team as their record suggests. Tennessee's defence seems to get worse each week.

Pittsburgh H2H @ 1.40
Since their bad loss to Tampa Bay Pittsburgh started the week as short as 1.28 but have been drifting since. I reckon they'll bounce back against a poor Jacksonville team, much like Miami bounced back last week by whipping Oakland.

Indianapolis H2H @ 1.55
Indianpolis have a good home record while Baltimore are poor on the road. Since last year Baltimore have a 1-5 record when they're the underdog.

Detroit H2H @ 1.32
Detroit have been great at home this season. Buffalo are struggling and have benched QB EJ Manuel in favour of Kyle Orton.

Dallas H2H 1.38
Houston haven't been great on the road of late. Dallas are 5-1 as the favourite since last year while Houston are 0-8 as the underdog.

Denver H2H @ 1.31 AND Arizona +7.5 @ 1.88
Denver have a dominant w/l tally at home but they have a poor home line betting record. Arizona are undefeated this season and Denver have yet to beat anyone by more than 7 points.

San Diego H2H @ 1.35 AND San Diego -6.5 @ 1.93
San Diego are 4-0 a the line this year and they beat Seattle at home by 11 points in Week 2. The Jets look unsettled at the moment, with fans calling for a change in QB.

Kansas City +6.5 @ 1.87
Kansas City are a streaky team and they're hot at the moment. They have a good line record. San Francisco haven't been all that great this season.

Cincinnati H2H @ 1.88
Cincinnati are undefeated this season while New England have only looked good in one of their four games. New England only just beat Oakland (a team I think are awful) in their last home game.

Seattle H2H @ 1.33
Washington are 1-11 as the underdog over the last year while Seattle are 13-2 as the favourite. Washington have only won one of their last eight games and that was against the hopeless Jacksonville.

**blackswan** · 7 October 2014, 02:09 PM

Here are my results from Week 5:

Green Bay H2H @ 1.29 - WIN (easily)
Chicago +3.0 @ 1.80 - Loss (they lost by 6)
Philadelphia H2H @ 1.36 - WIN
NY Giants H2H @ 1.50 - WIN
New Orleans H2H @ 1.20 - WIN (in overtime, I got lucky)
Cleveland +2.5 @ 1.95 - WIN (they won by 1)
Pittsburgh H2H @ 1.40 - WIN
Indianapolis H2H @ 1.55 - WIN
Detroit H2H @ 1.32 - Loss
Dallas H2H @ 1.38 - WIN (in overtime, I got lucky)
Denver H2H @ 1.31 - WIN (easily)
Arizona +7.5 @ 1.88 - Loss
San Diego H2H @ 1.35 - WIN (easily)
San Diego -6.5 @ 1.93 - WIN (easily)
Kansas City +6.5 @ 1.87 - WIN
Cincinnati H2H @ 1.88 - Loss (congrats to New England for bouncing back)
Seattle H2H @ 1.33 - WIN

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +24.2 units on 170 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4 - 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (7.4%)
Week 5 - 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (14.2%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +29.4 units

**blackswan** · 10 October 2014, 10:02 AM

For Week 6 I'm not providing quite as many tips because there are a number of fixtures where I can't find much value in the odds:

Houston +3.5 @ 1.68
The Indianapolis offensive line is their biggest weakness on offence, which doesn't bode well against JJ Watt & Co. Houston only just lost this fixture by 3 points during their disastrous 2013 season, so I like the +3.5 mark over the +2.5 1.91 market.

Denver H2H @ 1.27
Once again there's a media circus regarding the NY Jets starting QB. What else is new?

Cincinnati H2H @ 1.36
Just about every team that has visited Cincinnati over the last 12 months have had their asses kicked. Cincinnati have won 7 of their last 8 at home - all 7 wins were by 13 points or more! This bet is riskier than usual, though with Cincinnati WR AJ Green unlikely to play. On the other hand, Carolina will likely still be without star RB DeAngelo Williams. If AJ Green were playing I would take Cincinnati -6.5 at the line, but with him out I will stick with the H2H market.

New England H2H @ 1.71
It's amazing how much can change in a week (with a good team). After getting hammered by Kansas City two weeks ago, New England thrashed the previously undefeated Cincinnati last week. New England have won 7 of their last 8 away against Buffalo and are 15-1 in their last 16 against them.

San Diego H2H @ 1.33
I'm usually loathed to take a short-priced favourite away from home, but San Diego have looked fantastic this season while Oakland have been woeful. Oakland have lost their last 6 home games in a row.

Seattle @ 1.26
Seattle are almost unplayable at home, where they've won 8 of their last 9 games. Dallas are actually a pretty good road team, but Seattle should be too strong. They beat the Cowboys by 20 points the last time they hosted them in 2012.

San Francisco @ 1.58
San Francisco are one of the best road teams in the NFL. They've won 8 of their last 11 away from home. They have won 6 of their last 7 games as the road favourite.

**blackswan** · 16 October 2014, 05:02 PM

Here are my results from Week 6:

Houston +3.5 @ 1.68 - Loss (Indianapolis got off to a flyer and Houston ran out of time to catch up)
Denver H2H @ 1.27 - WIN (easily)
Cincinnati H2H @ 1.36 - Half payout for draw
New England H2H @ 1.71 - WIN (easily)
San Diego H2H @ 1.33 - WIN (closer than I would have liked)
Seattle @ 1.26 - Loss (the Cowboys are the real deal this year)
San Francisco @ 1.58 - WIN (easily)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -4.3 units on 70 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +25.1 units

**blackswan** · 16 October 2014, 05:18 PM

Here are my picks for Week 7:

New England @ 1.23
I don't have much faith in Jets QB Geno Smith. New England are 8-0 at home over the last year while the Jets are 1-6 on the road. The -10.0 line on New England is tempting.

Baltimore @ 1.36
Baltimore are 6-2 at home over the last year while Atlanta are 1-8 on the road. Atlanta have won only 1 of their last 5 games while Baltimore have lost only 1 of their last 5.

Indianapolis @ 1.62
Indianapolis are playing really well at the moment while Cincinnati have lost their way a bit - especially on defence.

Buffalo @ 1.42
Buffalo aren't great however Minnesota have looked weak, plus they're poor away from home.

San Diego @ 1.50
Should be a good game. Bookmakers have been good at predicting Kansas City results when they're on the road (3-1 as favourite, 1-4 as underdog). San Diego have won 7 of their last 8 against Kansas City.

Dallas @ 1.38
Everyone keeps waiting for the Romo-led offence to slip up, but they've won 5 in a row now. The Giants offensive line got its arse kicked last week against Philadelphia. I don't see them keeping up with Dallas and having Victor Cruz out for the season doesn't help either.

**blackswan** · 17 October 2014, 05:40 PM

One other pick for Week 7 is:

Oakland +6.5 @ 1.58
I was impressed by Oakland's performance last week and Arizona are missing a number of players on defence this week.

**blackswan** · 20 October 2014, 01:47 PM

Here are my results for Week 7:

New England @ 1.23 - WIN (much closer than I would have liked!)
Baltimore @ 1.36 - WIN (easily)
Indianapolis @ 1.62 - WIN (easily)
Buffalo @ 1.42 - WIN (just)
San Diego @ 1.50 - Loss (just)
Dallas @ 1.38 - WIN
Oakland +6.5 @ 1.58 - Loss (just)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +0.1 units on 70 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +25.2 units

**blackswan** · 23 October 2014, 02:34 PM

Here are my picks for week 8:

Denver @ 1.27
The Denver offence looks fantastic at the moment. San Diego are 5-2 this season, but they've had a soft schedule so far, with Kansas City and Seattle the only two decent teams they've played so far.

Detroit @ 1.55
Atlanta have lost their way. Their pass protection is awful, which doesn't bode well against Detroit's defence.

New England @ 1.42
New England are coming off 10 days rest while Chicago have been disappointing of late. New England are 8-0 in heir last 8 home games.

Baltimore @ 2.00
Cincinnati have struggled since AJ Green got injured. Cincinnati beat Baltimore away earlier this year so there will be some payback here. If AJ Green does play then ignore this pick!

Green Bay @ 2.10
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm taking the away team against New Orleans! New Orleans have been disappointing lately, and their 6-game winning streak at home was only kept alive against the lowly Tampa Bay after going into extra time.

Dallas @ 1.22
Dallas have now won 6 straight while Washington are throwing the dice by starting with Colt McCoy at QB. This will be McCoy's first start since 2011. McCoy did well after coming in against Tennessee last week, but playing away against Dallas is an entirely different ask.

**blackswan** · 28 October 2014, 04:45 PM

Here are my results for Week 8:

Denver @ 1.27 (WIN)
Detroit @ 1.55 (WIN)
New England @ 1.42 (WIN)
Baltimore @ 2.00 (Loss)
Green Bay @ 2.10 (Loss)
Dallas @ 1.22 (Loss - in overtime)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -17.6 units on 60 units wagered. That was my first really bad result of the year. I'm kicking myself for not following my golden rule regarding backing the away teams against New Orleans and Cincinnati. Once again I'm annoyed with myself because I actually also backed:
Buffalo @ 2.25 (WIN), Kansas City @ 1.29 (WIN), Tampa Bay @ 1.67 (Loss), Pittsburgh @ 2.25 (WIN) and Carolina +5 @ 1.91 (WIN). Perhaps next week I won't be selective with the tips I publish because I tend to do worse when I do.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +7.6 units

**blackswan** · 30 October 2014, 03:58 PM

Here are my picks for Week 9:

Carolina +3 @ 1.88
Over the last year Carolina are 7-1-2 at the line at home while New Orleans are 3-8 on the road and 0-6 as the road favourite.

Washington @ 1.98
Robert Griffin III returns to start this week. Even if Griffin doesn't play the entire game, reserve QB Colt McCoy is a decent replacement.

Kansas City @ 1.25
Kansas City have played well at home over the last few weeks and the Jets have only won 1 of their last 7 away games.

Philadelphia @ 1.83
Houston have consistently beaten weaker teams and lost to stronger teams this season. Houston have lost their last 9 straight games when installed as the underdog while Philadelphia have won 10 out of their last 12 when installed as the favourite. Also, Houstin star RB Arian Foster has been battling a knee injury during the week. Houston have a terrible record when he doesn't play. Houston WR Andre Johnson has an ankle issue.

Cincinnati @ 1.18
Cincinnati are 7-1-1 at home over the last 12 months. They are also 7-2 at the line at home with 6 of their last 7 home wins being by 13 points or more. Cincinnati may have star WR A.J. Green back this week. As a side note, I think the total has a good chance of going over 43.5.

San Francisco @ 1.20
San Francisco have won 5 of their last 7 at home and they are 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against St Louis. San Francisco have been battling with injuries this season but they will get a few players back after a timely bye last week.

New England +3 @ 2.05
New England are 8-0 at home over the last 12 months. I think each team has a 50% chance of winning which is why I'm taking the value with the home side.

Seattle @ 1.07
Oakland are on a 13-game losing streak and Seattle are excellent at home.

Pittsburgh @ 2.00
Pittsburgh have only lost 2 of their last 9 home games and they were fantastic offensively last week. They are the slight underdogs this week and Pittsburgh are 3-0 in their last 3 home games as the underdog.

Indianaplois @ 1.62
The NY Giants have beaten a number of teams this year but they have yet to defeat a playoff bound team. Indianapolis have a fantastic, high scoring offence and I think the Giants will struggle to keep up.

**blackswan** · 4 November 2014, 03:24 PM

Here are my results for Week 9:

Carolina +3 @ 1.88 (Loss - my one bad pick this week)
Washington @ 1.98 (Loss - close)
Kansas City @ 1.25 (WIN - easily)
Philadelphia @ 1.83 (WIN)
Cincinnati @ 1.18 (WIN)
San Francisco @ 1.20 (Loss - I'm still spewing over that final drive fumble)
New England +3 @ 2.05 (WIN - easily)
Seattle @ 1.07 (WIN - closer than I would have liked)
Pittsburgh @ 2.00 (WIN - easily)
Indianapolis @ 1.62 (WIN - easily)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +10.0 units on 100 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +17.6 units

**blackswan** · 6 November 2014, 03:02 PM

Here are my picks for Week 10:

Cincinnati @ 1.39
Cincinnati are 8-1-1 at home over the last 12 months while Cleveland are 1-6 on the road. Cleveland have lost 17 straight road games in the AFC North and Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a 3-0 home record against Cleveland. Cincinnati have WR AJ Green closer to full fitness after he played about half of the snaps last week. Since they lost their starting centre, Alex Mack, Cleveland have been terrible at running the football - they clearly have very little depth at that position.

Pittsburgh @ 1.46
The NY Jets have been terrible this season, even by their standards.

New Orleans @ 1.45
New Orleans have a fantastic home record and San Francisco appear to have lost their way a bit.

Baltimore @ 1.21
Baltimore have had a tough couple of weeks but they're generally very good at home, where they've won 6 of their last 8 when installed as the favourite.

Seattle @ 1.28
Seattle are excellent at home and the NY Giants have a terrible record of late against playoff calibre teams.

Arizona @ 1.32
Arizona have been on fire of late and they are 6-1 in their last 7 home games. St Louis are 2-5 in their last 7 away games.

Green Bay @ 1.30
Green Bay are 4-1-0 as the home favourite over the last 12 months while Chicago have only won 1 of their last 5 games.

Philadelphia @ 1.43
Philadelphia have won 8 of their last 9 home games whie Carolina are 1-1-3 as the road underdog. Carolina are 1-1-5 in their last 7 games.

**blackswan** · 11 November 2014, 03:36 PM

Here are my results for Week 10:

Cincinnati @ 1.39 (Loss)
Pittsburgh @ 1.46 (Loss)
New Orleans @ 1.45 (Loss - in OT)
Baltimore @ 1.21 (WIN)
Seattle @ 1.28 (WIN)
Arizona @ 1.32 (WIN)
Green Bay @ 1.30 (WIN)
Philadelphia @ 1.43 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -14.6 units on 80 units wagered. What a crappy week!

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +3.0 units

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