Punting Approach?

[the_burninator]

Just curious to what other peoples punting approaches are out there? I used to be someone who read as many match previews and other peoples opinions as possible and then make my selections. But recently I have moved towards the statistical model approach. Its very time consuming, but hopefully by the end it will be worthwhile.

[WildThing]

What sports do you bet on? I remember going through a phase of analysing premier league football results data (from http://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php) and a bookmaker xml odds feed data, but my biggest fear was always breaks in the data, i.e. when you have new players and new managers. I could always find a trend, but so often that trend was unique to the sample and didn't persist in new data. How is your modelling approach going?

At the moment my strategy is to be extremely picky. I find the fewer wagers I make the better I perform. My choice of stake amount has been paramount too. I have increased the variability in my stake amounts based on my confidence, but haven't been using a formal methodology for doing so. I've also been going through a phase of creating AFL multi bets using lopsided fixtures (i.e. Gold Coast vs Collingwood).

With an average bet of $15.59 (median $5.00) I am up $783.15 since April, so I am going through a purple patch at the moment, but I need to stay disciplined. Since I first started sports betting I am now up a net $7.80 after $28,774 of turnover (average bet $11.50, median $5.00)! I am now keen to avoid dipping back into negative territory.

[Goodsy]

So.. im interested to know other punterss betting approach..

I myself started betting for the 1st time last year.. I put $30 in.. was making regular bets and and even on sports I dont really follow. I did manage to get it up to $250.. then ended up losing it all. Ultimately it only cost me $30. I walked away once my account ran out. Ive been away from betting for about 4 months to look back and learn from it. Ive now returned..

Once again ive started with $30.. just last week.. im now at $43. This time round I feel more disciplined. Will be making less bets and (hopefully) wiser choices. Im using the matchstats site for tennis and studying H2H etc for tennis. Also doing total set bets and winner sets total.
MMA im looking at bets Win Inside Distance for juicer odds then just picking the winner..

Im looking at studying a little more the stats... making smart(er) bets on over $2.

Would like to hear what types of bets others do...

[Algernon]

My main approach for 2012 is to never bet more than 10% of my account balance on any wager, no matter how confident I am. When I play aggressively I do well in the short run, but eventually stuff it up.

2012 has been good for me so far. I'm up 63.5% after 50 wagers on NFL, NBA, tennis, cricket, soccer and badminton. I have a small account balance because I prefer to do it for fun than for money - it takes the stress out of it.

I too make good use of available stats, especially tennis H2H like you said.

My in-play betting is actually much better than my pre-game betting at the moment, especially in-game tennis betting on the women, because it becomes evident very quickly if someone's about to get wiped off the court. I find watching the tennis during the game to be invaluable, because you learn much more than you would by looking at the scoreline.

My average bet is at around 1.60 odds.

[tomD]

Hey,

I am sort of new in the betting busyness, but am huge fan of rugby!
If anyone can give me some advice, I would really appreciate it. I too intend to keep a small account balance, because I also prefer to be betting only for fun. I have a few friends who bet and they are always telling me how it is such an interesting and exciting experience that only adds to our usual fascination for rugby. I think I ought to try it, mainly because my grandfather used to bet with his friends too, and have told me quite the stories!

[Algernon]

If anyone can give me some advice, I would really appreciate it.

Hi tomD, my main advice is to never bet more than 10% of your account balance on any wager. Your deposit will last for ages if you do this.

Some other things are:
- if you follow rugby closely then you may find good opportunities for betting just as the odds are released. I often find the best value odds are available early in the week, with betting activity during the course of the week making the odds more efficient and accurate closer to the game.
- don't try to win back your losses. If you start with $20 and go down to $12, don't try to get back up to $20, just try to end up with more than $12 (in economics it's called thinking at the margin).
- if new information comes to light which makes you regret a bet that you've placed and the game hasn't started yet, don't hesitate to back the other team and lock in a small loss.
- don't make heavy use of multis, the bookie's house advantage increases exponentially when you add legs.

I like your plan to keep a small account balance because you only need a small deposit to enjoy sports betting. If you bet large amounts the only way you will enjoy sports betting is if you win, but if you bet small amounts you can still get enjoyment from the academic challenge of trying to beat the bookie even if you lose. I found out just the other day that I had $0.20 in my Centrebet account because back in the day they only permitted withdrawals in $1 increments and the minimum bet was $1. Now that they support $0.01 bets I'm using my $0.20 to see how far it goes! I did this once before with $0.64 with another bookie and the funds lasted for months. You can build up good experience with only a negligible amount of money.

Oh, and yes, you will end up with good stories!

[Slinky335]

I think the main things that I have adopted as a general approach to my punting are:
1. Never chase when I have lost
2. Only bet 10-15% of my bank roll for any given weekend.
3. Never bet drunk - although a combo with my mates down the pub is hard to resist
4. Keep the odds below $3-$4 as I win much more often

[AlexHitchens]

Great thread - enjoyed reading some of the techniques and tips - I'll share the only real gambling sports related tip I know, and one that has helped me win over 10,000 in cold hard cash - because unlike some I actually put my mney where my mouth is

Basically its the doggies - if you have Greyhounds 1 and 8 both in the race then regardless of the odds you put them in for first and second quinella (unless one is an obvious favourite then you exacta it up) - I have won more often than I have lost and its a good 50/50 bet - not bad odds when there's 8 dogs in the race!

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Got this tip from a mate who owns and races them and he says I'm the only lucky bastard who's actually financially benefited from this tip - ignorance maybe? LOL - stone the flaming crows I'm just a bloody lucky bastard

[Jekko]

Thank you for sharing with me all these techniques and tips guys! And 10 points goes to Slinky335 ,,Never bet drunk'', a good rule indeed! ha ha ha

[Casinodepositors]

I think the main things that I have adopted as a general approach to my punting are:
1. Never chase when I have lost
2. Only bet 10-15% of my bank roll for any given weekend.
3. Never bet drunk - although a combo with my mates down the pub is hard to resist
4. Keep the odds below $3-$4 as I win much more often

I never though that someone is also doing what I do. Yes do not bet when your drunk cause your ego is to high that even losing you still keep on betting because you can't accept defeat. Also agree with the 10%-15% allotted on betting, do not bet with your whole fortune on it.