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I've been analysing my EPL betting performance for the 2023/24 season and an emerging trend has become more consolidated as the season has worn on. The trend is that my Betfair bets have performed notably worse than my bookmaker bets.
For the season to date my return on turnover for the EPL is:
Betfair bets: -6.8%
Other bookmaker bets: +9.0%
For every bet I place I always shop around for the best odds. Often Betfair comes out on top, so it takes up more than 50% of my EPL wagers. Interestingly, the bookmaker bets have performed better, and I have a theory for this:
Basically, I have concluded that, on average, the Betfair marketplace is more efficient (accurately priced) than bookmaker odds. If I'm betting on the exchange, I'm probably betting on an appropriately priced market. When you factor in the odds spread and Betfair commission, this results in a loss. When I bet with a bookmaker it is because that bookmaker is offering better odds than what is available on the Betfair exchange. This suggests I am getting better than fair odds.
I've looked through the data and I have placed bets on similar markets between Betfair and the bookmakers. It isn't as if all of my Betfair bets are on the correct score and my bookmaker bets are on the total score, for example.
I haven't had a chance to run the same analysis over my other sports, but I was wondering if anyone else has experienced the same thing?
For the season to date my return on turnover for the EPL is:
Betfair bets: -6.8%
Other bookmaker bets: +9.0%
For every bet I place I always shop around for the best odds. Often Betfair comes out on top, so it takes up more than 50% of my EPL wagers. Interestingly, the bookmaker bets have performed better, and I have a theory for this:
Basically, I have concluded that, on average, the Betfair marketplace is more efficient (accurately priced) than bookmaker odds. If I'm betting on the exchange, I'm probably betting on an appropriately priced market. When you factor in the odds spread and Betfair commission, this results in a loss. When I bet with a bookmaker it is because that bookmaker is offering better odds than what is available on the Betfair exchange. This suggests I am getting better than fair odds.
I've looked through the data and I have placed bets on similar markets between Betfair and the bookmakers. It isn't as if all of my Betfair bets are on the correct score and my bookmaker bets are on the total score, for example.
I haven't had a chance to run the same analysis over my other sports, but I was wondering if anyone else has experienced the same thing?
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