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Below are some racing picks and tips for this weekend. The following comments are from Neil Evans at Luxbet.
Tracks, and the rolling patterns through the day, are vital at most major racing venues tomorrow, including a rain-swept Rosehill, and the tight Ipswich circuit that hosts the Listed feature Eyeliner Stakes-Ipswich Cup double.
Let’s get one thing clear punters, never be turned off by bad weather. Yes, track bias can be a factor, but work towards that. Often you can quickly get it down to just a couple of chances simply by how and where horses get in the run!
Ipswich normally plays fair, and while it’s usually an advantage to be somewhere near the lead and at least in a “striking” spot by the turn, horses can still swoop home from the second half if the race has been run at a genuine tempo. Many times I’ve seen runners finish down the outside from near impossible positions to claim the prize, yet “soft” runs are obviously preferrable on a circuit where there’s only a short straight.
Typically this race day offers enormous value if you can find it, but generally there are several chances in nearly every race!
Rosehill is intriguing in a different way. Smaller cat-and-mouse type fields early in the day, where the betting could be a little cramped, gives way to much bigger and wider fields in the second half. And punters should be tracking the pattern and speed all day, searching for horses who handle the soft ground, can land in the right spot, and be relied upon to keep finding the line. I expect horses down in the weights to really feature later in the day.
A very competitive early winter card is on offer at Flemington dominated by some well above aver age open class sprinters and milers.
Early races down the Straight Six (1200m) course will give punters a valuable key where the best ground is before the 2000m and mile races swing into gear. Expect a slow 6, or at best a dead 5, and I expect horses nearer the lead to dominate most races.
Below is a snap-shot of my assessment of the day.
Eye Liner Stakes Tip: Gundy Son: Will need some luck from the inside draw, but last run at Listed level very good, and just missed in this race last year. Well placed, and improving track a big plus too!
Best Bet: Embark (Rosehill R3 No 3): Has returned in good order, and suited here second-up over the right trip. Form is super consistent, and soft track no problem!
Best Value: Shamardani (Rosehill R8 No 13): Hit the line hard in the last couple, and again gets in an open race with no weight after jocke y’s claim. Improving type who must be over the odds!
Best Lay: Queen’s Elect (Rosehill R1 No 2): Form is consistent enough, but up sharply in weight and trip here, and others appear slightly better placed!
Best Backed: Spurcific (Flemington R8 No 2): From strong yard, and heavily backed early on Luxbet from $4.80 down to $4.40. Goes well at the track and looks well placed!
NEIL’S ROSEHILL RUMBLER:
R5 No. 1 ADROITLY: Handles the ground well, and was only a length from Reuben Percival two starts when worked home from the back, and now meets him slightly better at the weights. Adroitly has had a fortnight off, while the favourite Reuben Percival had a flying trip to the Brisbane Cup, and is having his third run in a fortnight. Payback time!
MY FAB’S @ FLEMINGTON:
R5 No. 8 VERDASCO: Tough sprinter, and well placed on the limit weight here. His form d own the straight on soft tracks in good company has been very good, often with little luck. Sensational each-way value!
R7 No. 2 CLUB COMMAND: Has won two of three this prep and did the job nicely for me last start. Again looks very well placed after the jockey’s 3kg claim at the right trip. Don’t be too concerned by the wide gate. He’ll race up near the front, and by race 7, away from the fence is the likely place to be!
MY BEST IN THE WEST @ BELMONT:
R5 No. 8 MORNING MIST
R7 No. 7 ALMACHINO
Tracks, and the rolling patterns through the day, are vital at most major racing venues tomorrow, including a rain-swept Rosehill, and the tight Ipswich circuit that hosts the Listed feature Eyeliner Stakes-Ipswich Cup double.
Let’s get one thing clear punters, never be turned off by bad weather. Yes, track bias can be a factor, but work towards that. Often you can quickly get it down to just a couple of chances simply by how and where horses get in the run!
Ipswich normally plays fair, and while it’s usually an advantage to be somewhere near the lead and at least in a “striking” spot by the turn, horses can still swoop home from the second half if the race has been run at a genuine tempo. Many times I’ve seen runners finish down the outside from near impossible positions to claim the prize, yet “soft” runs are obviously preferrable on a circuit where there’s only a short straight.
Typically this race day offers enormous value if you can find it, but generally there are several chances in nearly every race!
Rosehill is intriguing in a different way. Smaller cat-and-mouse type fields early in the day, where the betting could be a little cramped, gives way to much bigger and wider fields in the second half. And punters should be tracking the pattern and speed all day, searching for horses who handle the soft ground, can land in the right spot, and be relied upon to keep finding the line. I expect horses down in the weights to really feature later in the day.
A very competitive early winter card is on offer at Flemington dominated by some well above aver age open class sprinters and milers.
Early races down the Straight Six (1200m) course will give punters a valuable key where the best ground is before the 2000m and mile races swing into gear. Expect a slow 6, or at best a dead 5, and I expect horses nearer the lead to dominate most races.
Below is a snap-shot of my assessment of the day.
Eye Liner Stakes Tip: Gundy Son: Will need some luck from the inside draw, but last run at Listed level very good, and just missed in this race last year. Well placed, and improving track a big plus too!
Best Bet: Embark (Rosehill R3 No 3): Has returned in good order, and suited here second-up over the right trip. Form is super consistent, and soft track no problem!
Best Value: Shamardani (Rosehill R8 No 13): Hit the line hard in the last couple, and again gets in an open race with no weight after jocke y’s claim. Improving type who must be over the odds!
Best Lay: Queen’s Elect (Rosehill R1 No 2): Form is consistent enough, but up sharply in weight and trip here, and others appear slightly better placed!
Best Backed: Spurcific (Flemington R8 No 2): From strong yard, and heavily backed early on Luxbet from $4.80 down to $4.40. Goes well at the track and looks well placed!
NEIL’S ROSEHILL RUMBLER:
R5 No. 1 ADROITLY: Handles the ground well, and was only a length from Reuben Percival two starts when worked home from the back, and now meets him slightly better at the weights. Adroitly has had a fortnight off, while the favourite Reuben Percival had a flying trip to the Brisbane Cup, and is having his third run in a fortnight. Payback time!
MY FAB’S @ FLEMINGTON:
R5 No. 8 VERDASCO: Tough sprinter, and well placed on the limit weight here. His form d own the straight on soft tracks in good company has been very good, often with little luck. Sensational each-way value!
R7 No. 2 CLUB COMMAND: Has won two of three this prep and did the job nicely for me last start. Again looks very well placed after the jockey’s 3kg claim at the right trip. Don’t be too concerned by the wide gate. He’ll race up near the front, and by race 7, away from the fence is the likely place to be!
MY BEST IN THE WEST @ BELMONT:
R5 No. 8 MORNING MIST
R7 No. 7 ALMACHINO