Tweet
The following comments are from Neil Evans at Luxbet.
Find the lanes, find the lanes, and track the pattern! That’s the first tip as punters head into the time-honoured Glasshouse-Guineas and Caloundra Cup meeting on the Sunshine Coast this Saturday.
Sadly, but we’re all used to it, there hasn’t been much sun around, and we’ll be racing on a heavily affected surface again. But against that, the Sunshine Coast track offers plenty of room and a lovely big sweeping run into the long straight so barriers aren’t critical, yet 80 per cent of the time the winners come down the outside and finish wide on the track so don’t be alarmed if you’re three and four wide. If it’s truly run and you have sufficient cover, you’re right in the firing line!
The Glasshouse is always a wide betting race with many chances, and Jetset Lad – unlucky at Eagle Farm last run when he blew the start – must be the horse to beat. He has superior wet-track form, and should arrest favouritism from the super consistent Belltone, although both are very backable on Luxbet. Around these two, Varenna Miss has plenty of class, will appreciate the drop in grade, has drawn a middle gate and looks well placed at the trip.
I expect the Sunshine Coast Guineas for three-year-olds over the mile to be won by a horse off the speed. And the one I like is Venture On! He’s still on the rise and his formlines are terrific for this race. The wet track won’t be a problem, and the jockey may only need to navigate a passage away from the fence at the 600m to get into the striking lane!
In Sydney at Rosehill, with the Listed Civic Stakes (1400m) the feature, I expect the track to play fairly even as the weather improves, while at Caulfield in Melbourne the rail is out 7m so expect those near enough to the pace to dominate early before the backmarkers really start to get into the frame, similar to what happened on Wednesday when the rail was out a whopping 1400m.
Here’s a betting snapshot of what I like and don’t like:
Glasshouse: Jetset Lad: After his unlucky effort last start, will be suited by the wider gate here where he can be kept out of trouble and saved for one run. Suited by the spacious track and has superior wet track credentials! The one to beat. Danger: Varenna Miss
Best Bet: Embark (Rosehill R3 No.3) - Just missed in the heavy last start and even better suited here on improving track. Ready to win third-up at his pet trip! Danger: There isn’t one!
Best Value: Warrior Within (Sunshine Coast R7 No.2) - Nice closing run in the Group 3 Tatt's Cup, and even better suited now back at Listed level over 2400m. Will get a nice run back in the field, and is way over the odds!
Best Lay: Be llo (Rosehill R2 No.1) - Best form is on heavy tracks, and already easy in our market. Much prefer Hendricus second-up at this trip!
Best Backed Runners on Luxbet:
Elite Elle (Caulfield R2 No.6) - Unbeaten two-year-old filly from strong yard who has been heavily backed from $3.10 into $2.60. Punters seem convinced she'll win again! Knight Examplar (Rosehill R1 No.3) – Smart colt from strong yard who was beaten by a good one on debut before an impressive trial win at Randwick. Punters snaped up what they saw as huge value backing him quickly from $6.50 into $5.50 despite the wrap on the favourite!
NEIL’S ROSEHILL RAIDER
R6 No. 3 TROMSO: Looks over the odds to me stepping to a suitable 1400m third-up in a competitive race.
NEIL’S CAULFIELD CRACKER
R4 No. 2 TURNITUP: Has been costly of late but led for a long time last start at Flemington and was caught on the slower part of the track. Just needs to sit off the speed and fence to pounce in the straight!
NEIL’S SUNNY COAST SPECIAL
R8 No. 1 MR ORIENT: An A1 swimmer who bounced back to form against a decent midweek field at Doomben. Jockey’s 3kg claim fires him right into the race, and on wet ground again, he’s way over the odds!
Find the lanes, find the lanes, and track the pattern! That’s the first tip as punters head into the time-honoured Glasshouse-Guineas and Caloundra Cup meeting on the Sunshine Coast this Saturday.
Sadly, but we’re all used to it, there hasn’t been much sun around, and we’ll be racing on a heavily affected surface again. But against that, the Sunshine Coast track offers plenty of room and a lovely big sweeping run into the long straight so barriers aren’t critical, yet 80 per cent of the time the winners come down the outside and finish wide on the track so don’t be alarmed if you’re three and four wide. If it’s truly run and you have sufficient cover, you’re right in the firing line!
The Glasshouse is always a wide betting race with many chances, and Jetset Lad – unlucky at Eagle Farm last run when he blew the start – must be the horse to beat. He has superior wet-track form, and should arrest favouritism from the super consistent Belltone, although both are very backable on Luxbet. Around these two, Varenna Miss has plenty of class, will appreciate the drop in grade, has drawn a middle gate and looks well placed at the trip.
I expect the Sunshine Coast Guineas for three-year-olds over the mile to be won by a horse off the speed. And the one I like is Venture On! He’s still on the rise and his formlines are terrific for this race. The wet track won’t be a problem, and the jockey may only need to navigate a passage away from the fence at the 600m to get into the striking lane!
In Sydney at Rosehill, with the Listed Civic Stakes (1400m) the feature, I expect the track to play fairly even as the weather improves, while at Caulfield in Melbourne the rail is out 7m so expect those near enough to the pace to dominate early before the backmarkers really start to get into the frame, similar to what happened on Wednesday when the rail was out a whopping 1400m.
Here’s a betting snapshot of what I like and don’t like:
Glasshouse: Jetset Lad: After his unlucky effort last start, will be suited by the wider gate here where he can be kept out of trouble and saved for one run. Suited by the spacious track and has superior wet track credentials! The one to beat. Danger: Varenna Miss
Best Bet: Embark (Rosehill R3 No.3) - Just missed in the heavy last start and even better suited here on improving track. Ready to win third-up at his pet trip! Danger: There isn’t one!
Best Value: Warrior Within (Sunshine Coast R7 No.2) - Nice closing run in the Group 3 Tatt's Cup, and even better suited now back at Listed level over 2400m. Will get a nice run back in the field, and is way over the odds!
Best Lay: Be llo (Rosehill R2 No.1) - Best form is on heavy tracks, and already easy in our market. Much prefer Hendricus second-up at this trip!
Best Backed Runners on Luxbet:
Elite Elle (Caulfield R2 No.6) - Unbeaten two-year-old filly from strong yard who has been heavily backed from $3.10 into $2.60. Punters seem convinced she'll win again! Knight Examplar (Rosehill R1 No.3) – Smart colt from strong yard who was beaten by a good one on debut before an impressive trial win at Randwick. Punters snaped up what they saw as huge value backing him quickly from $6.50 into $5.50 despite the wrap on the favourite!
NEIL’S ROSEHILL RAIDER
R6 No. 3 TROMSO: Looks over the odds to me stepping to a suitable 1400m third-up in a competitive race.
NEIL’S CAULFIELD CRACKER
R4 No. 2 TURNITUP: Has been costly of late but led for a long time last start at Flemington and was caught on the slower part of the track. Just needs to sit off the speed and fence to pounce in the straight!
NEIL’S SUNNY COAST SPECIAL
R8 No. 1 MR ORIENT: An A1 swimmer who bounced back to form against a decent midweek field at Doomben. Jockey’s 3kg claim fires him right into the race, and on wet ground again, he’s way over the odds!