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The following weekend racing preview is from Neil Evans at Luxbet.
In and around mainly fine weather, a few showers in the 48 hours leading up to Saturday’s meeting should have Warwick Farm in near perfect racing order, and again the three-year-olds take centre stage!
But for all the quality and potential carnival stars re-emerging in the Group 3 Silver Shadow Stakes (1200m), punters have been swept up by only one horse. Off a booming trial, the Patinack Farm filly Nechita has almost hi-jacked the fixed odds market, firming from an opening $2.20 on Luxbet into a “flashing” $1.95, and destined to jump shorter. Yes, she appears to have muscled up beautifully through the winter, and everyone remembers her first-up win at this track in early June when she sat just behind the speed and put them away with ridiculous ease.
I concede Nechita’s the one to beat, but with several extra smart fillies resuming, t here must be a “stopping point” price-wise!
I will certainly be covering both Flying Snitzel and Jade Marauder, both are knock-out chances if the “heat” is on early and they get into the race at the right time. Jade Marauder could prove outrageous odds around $15.00! The Sweet Embrace winner from the Spring has had two strong trials, and if the backmarkers are in play, she is a serious hope, and capable of producing a blinding last 400m!
Elsewhere, I’m very keen on Thumbtacks breaking through in the second race. Narrowly beaten in his last two, he’s had little luck in the straight having to change course, but drawn a little further out here is the key. Thumbtacks can sit off the speed, out of trouble, and come with one big run from the point of the turn. He’s a fit and tough miler, and punters must stick!
Finding real value winners won’t be easy though. Several races, including Kellini in the fi rst and the flying Sumarand in the Group 3 Up & Coming, are a little stifled by short-price favourites.
Speaking of fancied runners, there’ll be plenty watching the return of Moment In Change in the Listed Show County. He’s been heavily backed on Luxbet from $2.30 into $2.00, but I wouldn’t dismiss Title. He’s drawn well and is at his best second-up!
Here’s a snap-shot of how I see Warwick Farm playing out:
MY WARWICK STAKES TIP: A tough race at weight-for-age with a lot of quality resuming. Lights of Heaven comes off a power Brisbane carnival, is a first-up winner and looks better placed and drawn than most of her rivals here. She will get a lovely trailing position and is over the odds!
MY BEST BET: THUMBTACKS (Warwick Farm R2): Very consistent miler who has just missed in his last couple with little or no luck in the run home. The key here is a wider draw where he can stay out of trouble and come with one sweeping run. Boasts a good record this track too!
MY BEST VALUE: JADE MARAUDER: (Warwick Farm R7): Top filly resuming who will naturally get a long way back in a hot race. But she’s had two strong trials, is always good fresh, and if the speed’s right on, she will get home hard at huge odds!
MY BEST LAY: PINWHEEL (Warwick Farm R6): I’m a big fan of this horse, but cannot touch him here at the price, stepping to 1400m with 59kgs and from a wide gate. Will need to slot in for a trail somewhere and get the right tempo. No value in this company!
BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: NECHITA (Silver Shadow Stakes): The money has matched the track hype all week. Sensationally backed from the moment we put up $2.20 and has rocketed into $1.95, and certain to start much shorter!
Racing in Melbourne returns to Moonee Valley for the first time in a while, and a tough assignment for punters looms. Reasonably big and even fields dominate an eight-race card, and on an expected slow track, the pattern will be crucial. But with the rail out 4m off a decent break, expect on-pace runners to be in the box seat for much of the day!
NEIL’S MOONEE VALLEY MARVELS:
R4: No. 7 SHINY BUTTONS: Put the writing on the wall last start at Flemington finishing off strong behind good galloper Dayita. Even better suited at the longer trip, and drops 2kgs to the limit weight. Very well placed!
R6: No. 1 ATOMIC FORCE: Looked very forward in a recent Randwick trial win, and always comes to hand quickly. Has good record this track, and I love the middle gate. Don’t be concerned by the big weight!
NEIL’S DOOMBEN DASHERS:
R1: No. 2 LIESELE: Beautifully placed again on seven-day back-up over the short-course. Should park right behind the speed, and go bang in the straight. Punters can get it big early!
R8: No. 8 ALVITAS: Strong winner second-up, and is well placed again over the right trip, especially at the weights after form jockey’s 3kg claim. Will go further than this lot!
In and around mainly fine weather, a few showers in the 48 hours leading up to Saturday’s meeting should have Warwick Farm in near perfect racing order, and again the three-year-olds take centre stage!
But for all the quality and potential carnival stars re-emerging in the Group 3 Silver Shadow Stakes (1200m), punters have been swept up by only one horse. Off a booming trial, the Patinack Farm filly Nechita has almost hi-jacked the fixed odds market, firming from an opening $2.20 on Luxbet into a “flashing” $1.95, and destined to jump shorter. Yes, she appears to have muscled up beautifully through the winter, and everyone remembers her first-up win at this track in early June when she sat just behind the speed and put them away with ridiculous ease.
I concede Nechita’s the one to beat, but with several extra smart fillies resuming, t here must be a “stopping point” price-wise!
I will certainly be covering both Flying Snitzel and Jade Marauder, both are knock-out chances if the “heat” is on early and they get into the race at the right time. Jade Marauder could prove outrageous odds around $15.00! The Sweet Embrace winner from the Spring has had two strong trials, and if the backmarkers are in play, she is a serious hope, and capable of producing a blinding last 400m!
Elsewhere, I’m very keen on Thumbtacks breaking through in the second race. Narrowly beaten in his last two, he’s had little luck in the straight having to change course, but drawn a little further out here is the key. Thumbtacks can sit off the speed, out of trouble, and come with one big run from the point of the turn. He’s a fit and tough miler, and punters must stick!
Finding real value winners won’t be easy though. Several races, including Kellini in the fi rst and the flying Sumarand in the Group 3 Up & Coming, are a little stifled by short-price favourites.
Speaking of fancied runners, there’ll be plenty watching the return of Moment In Change in the Listed Show County. He’s been heavily backed on Luxbet from $2.30 into $2.00, but I wouldn’t dismiss Title. He’s drawn well and is at his best second-up!
Here’s a snap-shot of how I see Warwick Farm playing out:
MY WARWICK STAKES TIP: A tough race at weight-for-age with a lot of quality resuming. Lights of Heaven comes off a power Brisbane carnival, is a first-up winner and looks better placed and drawn than most of her rivals here. She will get a lovely trailing position and is over the odds!
MY BEST BET: THUMBTACKS (Warwick Farm R2): Very consistent miler who has just missed in his last couple with little or no luck in the run home. The key here is a wider draw where he can stay out of trouble and come with one sweeping run. Boasts a good record this track too!
MY BEST VALUE: JADE MARAUDER: (Warwick Farm R7): Top filly resuming who will naturally get a long way back in a hot race. But she’s had two strong trials, is always good fresh, and if the speed’s right on, she will get home hard at huge odds!
MY BEST LAY: PINWHEEL (Warwick Farm R6): I’m a big fan of this horse, but cannot touch him here at the price, stepping to 1400m with 59kgs and from a wide gate. Will need to slot in for a trail somewhere and get the right tempo. No value in this company!
BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: NECHITA (Silver Shadow Stakes): The money has matched the track hype all week. Sensationally backed from the moment we put up $2.20 and has rocketed into $1.95, and certain to start much shorter!
Racing in Melbourne returns to Moonee Valley for the first time in a while, and a tough assignment for punters looms. Reasonably big and even fields dominate an eight-race card, and on an expected slow track, the pattern will be crucial. But with the rail out 4m off a decent break, expect on-pace runners to be in the box seat for much of the day!
NEIL’S MOONEE VALLEY MARVELS:
R4: No. 7 SHINY BUTTONS: Put the writing on the wall last start at Flemington finishing off strong behind good galloper Dayita. Even better suited at the longer trip, and drops 2kgs to the limit weight. Very well placed!
R6: No. 1 ATOMIC FORCE: Looked very forward in a recent Randwick trial win, and always comes to hand quickly. Has good record this track, and I love the middle gate. Don’t be concerned by the big weight!
NEIL’S DOOMBEN DASHERS:
R1: No. 2 LIESELE: Beautifully placed again on seven-day back-up over the short-course. Should park right behind the speed, and go bang in the straight. Punters can get it big early!
R8: No. 8 ALVITAS: Strong winner second-up, and is well placed again over the right trip, especially at the weights after form jockey’s 3kg claim. Will go further than this lot!