Victoria Derby

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Punters have backed Hvasstan into a solid 6.50 second favourite with in the Victoria Derby after an impressive performance in yesterday’s Norman Robinson Stakes at Caulfield.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there has been some good money for the Peter Gelagotis trained colt.

“One smart punter put $2000 on him at $12 on Friday but they are still lining up to back him at his new price of $6.50,” Sullivan said.

“We have also taken plenty of money for It’s A Dundeel since the Norman Robinson so punters obviously aren’t completely convinced with the form from that race.”

“It’s A Dundeel has been crunched from $2.80 into $2.30,” Sullivan said.

All Too Hard is a steady $7.50 third favourite ahead of Honorius ($15 into $9) and Electric Fusion ($17 into $10).

2012 Victoria Derby

Sportingbet Australia Market
It’s A Dundeel $2.30 (was $2.80)
Hvasstan $6.50 (was $12)
All Too Hard $7.50
Honorius $9.00 (was $15)
Electric Fusion $10.00 (was $17)
Solemn $14.00 (was $17)
Jimando $15.00 (was $21)
Subiaso $17
Costa Nova $21.00
Kabayan $23.00

[MONEYMARKET]

Im sure the fav will be better suited back to the spacious bigger track and a bit of pace this weekend.

[admin]

The Robert Smerdon trained Electric Fusion has been backed from $12 into $9.00 with Sportingbet Australia to win Saturday’s Victoria Derby at Flemington.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Electric Fusion has attracted steady support since running third in the Norman Robinson at Caulfield.

“We took a $10,000 bet on him at $12 and plenty of other smaller bets at double figure odds,” Sullivan said.

“He looks as though he’ll appreciate the step up in distance from the Norman Robinson.”

It’s A Dundeel, a $2.05 favourite before last Saturday’s failure in the Vase at Moonee Valley, has been supported back into $2.40 favouritism after getting out to as much as $2.85.

It’s A Dundeel’s conqueror, Super Cool, has been $26 into $6 since Saturday and attracted a number of four figure bets at $7.50. One Sportingbet Australia punter had $1000 on Super Cool at $41 ten days ago.

Honorius is $10 into $7 and equal 3^rd favourite with Hvasstan.

2012 Victoria Derby (All-in)
Sportingbet Australia Market
Its A Dundeel 2.40
Super Cool 6.00
Hvasstan 7.00
Honorius 7.00
Electric Fusion 9.00
Escado 17.00
Subiaso 18.00
Jimando 18.00
Malabar Man 21.00
Our Desert Warrior 21.00

[admin]

The Murray Baker trained It’s A Dundeel is $2.40 out to $2.60 following the declaration of the final field and barrier draw for Saturday’s Victoria Derby at Flemington.

“I’m happy to take it on at that price after its disappointing last start failure at Moonee Valley”, said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.

“It just looked as though it could be feeling the end of its preparation.”

Super Cool continues to shorten and has been backed from as much as $26 into $5.50 second favouritism since defeating It’s A Dundeel in the Vase at Moonee Valley.

Havasstan attracted a $5,000 bet at $7 on Tuesday but has drifted to $8 and Electric Fusion is $9 out to $11 and was the subject of a $10,000 bet at $12 on Monday.

Subiaso has been well backed at odds and is $21 into $15.

“We took some small but significant bets at $21 and there was plenty more money for it at $18,” Sullivan said.

2012 Victoria Derby
Sportingbet Australia Market
It’s A Dundeel $2.60 (was 2.40)
Super Cool $5.50 (was 6.00)
Hvasstan $8 (was 7.00)
Honorius $8 (was 7.00)
Electric Fusion $11 (was 9.00)
Subiaso $15 (was 21.00)
Malabar Man $18 (was 21.00)
Escado $21 (was 17.00)
Jimando $21 (was 18.00)
Our Desert Warrior $26 (was 21.00)
Fiveandahalfstar $61 (was $41)
Nisos $81 (was $51)
Costa Nova $101 (was $51)
Bullion Express $101 (was $126)
Rawnaq $101 (steady)
Batistuta $101 (was $151)

[admin]

Below is Neil Evans' preview of Saturday's racing at Flemington:

A group of even three-year-olds are out to turn back one Kiwi raider in tomorrow’s Group 1 Victoria Derby. And after Saturday’s Moonee Valley meeting that challenge has surely become a little easier.

It’s A Dundeel has always been at the top of Luxbet Derby betting after beating Proisir in the Spring Champion Stakes. Despite the pint-sized NZ colt putting a string of wins together, punters feared he was getting too short, at one stage sneaking into odds-on!

Then it went back into the “melting pot” when he circled the field off a slow pace at the Valley but couldn’t run down the bigger Super Cool who exploded off the camber bend. Super Cool had put the writing on the wall when an unlucky second on Thousand Guineas Day. He’s a long-striding type and must be rated a genuine chance despite drawing wide in 11. It’s A Dundeel has drawn alongside in 10, yet both horses will naturally drift back so the bar riers should have little consequence.

In fact, It’s A Dundeel is better served away from the fence. He likes to get rolling a long way from home, and he’ll love switching from the tight Valley circuit to the sweeping stretches of Flemington. Remember, he took the entire Randwick straight to overhaul Proisir, and the way he raced on Saturday when over-striding on his “wrong” leg, this track and trip should be perfect! It’s A Dundeel drifted from $2.00 out to $2.70 after his first defeat, and is now out to $2.90 on Luxbet.

Outside of those two, I’m expecting a big run from the improving Honorius ($7.00). He’s drawn nicely in two, and can sustain a long fighting effort over a more suitable trip. Hvasstan, also solid around $7.00, is another who comes through similar form, and he can also run out a strong 2500m from a middle gate.

My Derby Tips: 1. It’s A Dundeel; 2. Super Cool; 3. Honorius

My MacKinnon Tips: 1. Ocean Park; 2. Alcopop 3. Glass Harmonium

Meanwhile, punters on Luxbet have launched a concerted bid to cash in on giant odds about a Melbourne Cup runner via the ballot-free Group 3 Lexus winner on Saturday!

A sharp punter bet $1,000.00 each-way on lightweight hope Dare To Dream in the Cup to win nearly $200K before it tries to qualify in the Lexus. Another punter had $500.00 each-way on Kellini at $151.00 to win near $100k in the Cup as well as $3,000.00 at $11.00 to land the Lexus and make the Cup field. If either gets up on Saturday, they will sneak into the Cup with no weight and at a price many times over its final field Tuesday price!”

Then there was an assault on the Williams/Hickmott horses. Bets of $500.00 on both Tanby and Excluded at $126.00 in the Cup before they line up in the Lexus. A bet also arrived of $10K at $31.00 on Mourayan to win the Cup, forcing his price into $21.00!

It’s a tall order though for the locals hoping to win the Lexus to get a start on Tuesday. UK stayer and Geelong Cup winner Gatewood has been heavily backed from an opening $3.20 into $2.90. Scores of punters have also taken the $26.00 about Gatewood in the Cup.

Meanwhile the betting war is on between Sydney fillies Snitzerland and Nechita ahead of the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, with a client betting $10,000.0 on Nechita at $3.80! “She’s taken over from multiple winner Snitzerland as a $3.60 favourite, while Sizzling has eased from $4.40 out to $4.60! One punter has had $2K at $10.65 on a Snitzerland-It’s A Dundeel double. Another has gone wide in the Coolmore betting $2K at $21.00 on Saturday’s Moonee Valley winner Hidden Warrior,” Evans said.

Here’s a snap-shot how I see the big day at Flemington:

MY DERBY TIP: IT’S A DUNDEEL: Not concerned by his failure last start first time around the Valley. Much better suited this track and in bigger field where the pressure will come on much further out. Just wants a trail home from the 800m to finish over the top.

MY BEST BET: DEAR DEMI (R3 Melb): Class mare who had no luck in the straight at a vital time when fighting second in the Thousand Guineas. Suited now to 2000m and also on a bigger track, and the jockey is hungry!

MY BEST VALUE: SNITZERLAND (R4 Melb): While she’s not a fancy price, will probably continue to get out if the money keeps coming for Nechita. Proved again last start she always finds the line, and suited down the straight course.

MY BEST LAY: HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME (R8 Melb): Flying at the moment and the one to beat , but rises 2.5kg from Caulfield win, meets a much better field and first time down the Flemington straight is way too short!

BEST BACKED: STREAMA (R7 Melb): Top mare and dominant winner over 1400m last start, and drops 1kg stepping to the mile. Punters have charged in backing her from an opening $3.40 into $3.00, and she’s destined to jump much shorter.

NEIL’S FLEMINGTON FLYER:
R9 4. FAWKNER: Given a month between runs after dominant win here over same trip. Always races well on the fresh side, and drops 2.5kg from that run!