AFL Round 22

[Andy Marshall]

Yes, it was more of a bad performance by the Pies. They had a poor first quarter, but still cruised to an 8 goal lead by three quarter time, and then relaxed in the last quarter. Only 45 tackles from Collingwood. Just off the top of my head, I reckon that's the lowest tackle count from them in years.

I had a shocking day today, which was a shame after such a great start to the weekend. Still could have been a ripper weekend if Melbourne could have held on in the last quarter today. A demon win would have brought home the cheeky multi. Saints were poor as well. They looked set for a straightforward win at half time.

[WildThing]

I didn't Andy, I bailed!!! The paltry odds saved me. Had they offered 1.40 I would have jumped right in. Thought 1.10 was not enough reward for the risk. I made a single wager on St Kilda instead.

Didn't see any of the game, but I take it it was a poor Pies performance rather than a brilliant Lions performance.

[Andy Marshall]

WildThing - I hope you didn't end up doing the Magpies line. They were awful tonight.

[Django]

Yes Carlton gave me a scare last night, fortunately Hawks held on and I was saved from a 0-3 run on my first day here haha

I've gone with Brisbane +73.5 and Fremantle +15.5 tonight.

Didn't get time to play today's games, was leaning Crows and Eagles to cover, should have laid my bets last night.

[Andy Marshall]

Magpies should cover the 40+ comfortably. Dry sunny day in Melbourne, so that should help them too. But $1.10 isn't much value! Although, if it means you get the Saints at about $1.80, then probably worth it.

[WildThing]

Geez Andy, you're on a role! The main aspect of my betting strategy is to vary the stakes based on confidence, but you're tearing it up with $10 bets. You sure know your AFL!

I was happy with the Hawks last night. I too rate St Kilda's chances tomorrow. I might tie it into a multi along with the Magpies to win by 40+ @ $1.10.

[Andy Marshall]

Forgot to mention in my last post...I like your play on the Saints. I'm with you on that one.

[Andy Marshall]

Haha, yeah, lucky the Blues didn't turn up until after half time. Never really looked like the Blues were going to win. But, if Gibbs kicked his goals they could have done it!

Great final quarter by Adelaide is another success. Although the flip side of that was Kurt Tippett's four last quarter goals to tie for leading goalscorer with my bet of Taylor Walker. Still a $1.75 payout for Walker though.

Now need West Coast to get busy in the second half and cover the line in their match. That would keep the 'cheeky' multi going as well.

[rotten_luck]

ive backed st kilda to win this week

missed the boat with hawthorn but carlton must have given you guys a fright last night!!

[Andy Marshall]

Thanks WildThing. Yeah, it was a great start to the weekend last night. I think your H2H play was pretty smart. The Blues showed they were more than a match for the Hawks once they got going. And Django, great work mate! It's good to see all of us getting in on the success. I think you owe Bryce Gibbs a share of your winnings though! He missed three very gettable shots late in the match that could have scuppered the line bet.

[WildThing]

I think your preview is spot on Andy... I'm going to be a bit more conservative and take the Hawks H2H.

[Django]

Hawks -8.5 for me tonight

[Andy Marshall]

In regards to the Sportsbet advice for the Collingwood v Brisbane match, I am nearly 100% confident there won't be rain on the day of the match. Melbourne is about to head into a 6 day patch of beautiful sunny weather.

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml

[admin]

In case you need even more food for thought, below are some tips from the traders at Sportsbet.

Carlton v Hawthorn

• The Hawks head to head is a very safe bet.

Gold Coast v Adelaide

• Our traders aren’t overly keen on the match from a betting position.

West Coast v Essendon

• This is our traders bet of the week; the Eagles to win and cover the line.

North Melbourne v Fremantle

• While our traders aren’t keen on the game they do consider the Dockers over the odds for this contest.

Collingwood v Brisbane

• It’s a big line for the Magpies to cover, one that has already moved ten points and there is some rain forecast for Saturday, but they have already shown against the Power and the Kangaroos that doesn’t make any difference. The Magpies to do it again.

Sydney v St Kilda

• Our traders are confident the Saints will win here.

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

• Some punters will back the Bulldogs on the strength of the new coach theory meaning Paul Williams will start with a win, but our traders don’t want to get involved in this game and prefer to watch on.

Melbourne v Richmond

• Our traders aren’t convinced that one win for the Tigers is enough for punters to back them with any confidence and despite the Demons representing better value, suggest staying out of the match.

[admin]

Andy's preview and betting tips for Round 22 are now up:

http://www.aussportsbetting.com/2011...-betting-tips/