NFL - Week 1 & Superbowl Futures

[admin]

The 2011/12 NFL season kicks off on September 8th (local time) when the Packers host the Saints.

Once again the New England Patriots (6.50) start favourites to win the Superbowl, followed closely by the Packers (7.00) and Eagles (8.00). Despite having signed Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton as the first overall draft pick, the Carolina Panthers languish as the 251.00 odds outsiders to win the Superbowl this season. Below are the latest futures odds (subject to change):



Below are the latest fixture odds for week 1 (subject to change):

[the_burninator]

About time the season came back around. I'm looking at a few games this week.

Saints+4.0 is value. Whenever your giving Drew Bress 'plus' points its hard to pass up.

Browns-6.5 i like the Browns this year, but them giving 6.5 points to anyone at this unproven stage is too much for me. Probably a pass here, even if it is against the Bengals. The under 35.5 might be a better bet as both defenses are improved and I can't see how the Bengals score very many points with rookie Dalton and Benson fresh out of jail.

Rams+4.5 this game is very interesting, the Eagles have been the talk all shortened preseason and the Rams are on the up. Vick should be pressured all day and forced to run a lot, which can be a good thing. I'll keep an eye on this line, it should move in favour of the Rams. Lots of shoulds and coulds.

Bucs-1.0 not sure of this game either. Leaning bucs as Lions are a bit over-rated at the moment. Although it could be a let down year for them this year. Also heard a trend that teams that lost 10+ gaames the year before are around 57% ATS as underdogs in opening games, the Lions lost 10 games last season.

Steelers+2.5 how can you not like the Steelers? Although everyone loves them. I'm wary of super bowl losers the next year, however Pittsburgh is a top notch organisation so it shouldn't be a problem for them.

Panters over37.0 i quite like this. Both offenses should be able to score some points, with the running game of both teams being able to set-up the passing offense of both. Cam Newton should make less turnovers than most rookie QB's becuase he can get out of tricky situations with is feet than forcing the ball into coverage.

Will have some more later tonight. These are just my inital thoughts on some games..

[the_burninator]

Got some more thoughts..

Redskins+3.0 there is alot of hate on the Redskins right now. The Redskins have looked good this pre-season, Grossman isn't a bad QB, he did take the Bears to a SB a few years ago, while Eli Manning has looked awful in pre-season. The only thing, you can't trust pre-season form.

Chargers-9.0 the Chargers will win the matchup, it just depends on how much? The Chargers have a positional advantage all over the field, as long as they can stop Peterson, they will win and win big.

Cowboys+4.5 the Cowboys where a completley different team last year without Romo. Romo is back and has great offensive wepons. The Jets defense however is awesome. The Ryan brothers will go head to head in this one so expect the QB's being pressured alot, i'll take Romo over Sanchez any day. In a situation like this its safer to take the points than lay them.

Patriots-7.0 Pats are awesome, Dolphins suck. Simple as that, Brady=100000000000 times better than Henne and at RB the dolphins are relying on Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas, both of these guys dont offer much of a threat besides running outside and in the passing game. The Pats will be ready for this and shut it down.

Colts+9.0 not listed above but this is the price I see at most places. Even if the Colts aren't without Manning they still have great players on offense and as long as they stop the Texans from rushing too much they should stay in it. Hoping Foster doesn't play. Everyone is thinking the Colts suck without Manning, I think they'll be alright, at least in the short term.

I'll have some more analysis, stats and plays later in the week..

[pominoz]

Thanks for all the insight. It makes for informative reading.

I haven't had time to do any pre-season research, so I'll just contribute this:

Looking at the CBS Expert picks for the round, for the h2h picks (not necessarily being betting suggestions), all five members of the panel agreed on:

Green Bay v New Orleans
St Louis v Philadelphia
Houston v Indianapolis
Chicago v Atlanta
San Francisco v Seattle
San Diego v Minnesota
Arizona v Carolina

For the picks versus the spread, the only fixture they all agreed on was
NY Jets v Dallas (+4.5)

Four of the five agreed on
Jacksonville v Tennessee (+3.5)
Washington v Giants (-3.5)
Miami (+7.5) v New England
Denver v Oakland (+3.5)

[the_burninator]

Plays i'm leaning towards;

Saints+4.0 and/or Packers 1-6, the superbowl winners have won all opening night matchups, a perfect 8-0. However in saying that I really like what NO has done this offseason, good aqusitions in the run game, getting Sproles and Ingram in the draft. Sproles will be a replacement for Bush, without the off-field dramas. One of NO's weaknesses last season was running the football, ranking 25th in DVOA in rushing offense (for DVOA see football outsiders). That should be much improved with their acquisitions and a healthy Thomas. GB also ranked 16th in defense agianst the run in DVOA. (last year). It must be noted though that Green Bay ranked 1st against the pass last year in DVOA. The way i'm thinking though is that there may be some lapses in concentration from the Green Bay secondary due to the excitement coming off winning a SB and playing in front of their home crowd. Don't get me wrong, they be pumped, maybe just a little too excited and that's all Brees needs to burn them.

Will most likely have the Saints +points in some way, but looking into the value of Green Bay 1-6, because if they win it should be close. Might even play both and either sink or swim to start the season.

Hopefully I can get a bit more structure to these write ups as I go. I just feel its my thoughts out loud at the moment.

Eyeing off 4-5 more plays, its hard narowing down because i'm so excited! And like everything I see..

[the_burninator]

It's also interesting to note that Rogers is 13-3 at Lambeau Field the last two years.

[admin]

To the_burninator, pominoz and anyone who's interested, bet365 offers a plethora of lines for the popular NFL fixtures. Below are the latest point spread odds (subject to change) for New Orleans @ Green Bay:

[the_burninator]

A few futures that I like (not that I like futures) are;

Saints (@2.25) and Chargers (@1.40) to win their divisions. Getting the more improved Saints @2.25 is just great value, in a seemingly 50-50 proposition. I just like what the Saints have overall more than the Falcons as well. The Chargers as well even @1.40 are value. If the season was played over a million times I see them winning it about 80% of the time, given that anything over 1.25 is great value. The only way they don't win this division is of Rivers goes down for the season.

A few other I like but am not going to bet;

Steelers over11.0 @2.45 (they should win at least 11, so at worst its a push and if they win 12 you'll get great return on your money. Have you seen the Steelers schedule?)

Rams over7.5 @1.91 (they where 7-9 last year, i dont see anywhere where they took a step backwards. This is a team on the rise and I expect them to be at leasts one game better than last year. Only concern is that they have a tough schedule in the first half of the year, hope they dont put there heads down after that).

There the only other ones of real value that I see left. Usually the 'under' is more value but that's only when the numbers first come out. The value on the unders has now been bet out of it.

[the_burninator]

The 4.50 odds of the Packers winning 1-6 got me thinking. How often does a team favoured by 4 or 4.5 win by 1-6? Crunching the numbers from the past ten years it was around 19% of the time. Looking at this alone, I would need odds of atleast 5.50 to make it a value bet? Of course you can swing the data in interesting ways though. Just a thought..

[qtip]

That's an interesting stat. I remember running a few tests on soccer scorelines, and always found the available odds needed to be a bit higher to make it worth employing a specific strategy based purely on the odds.

For rugby union/league I always give consideration to the 1-13 odds. Is NFL always 1-6, 7-12, etc? I'd be tempted to pick two adjacent lines if that's the case.

How do you rate the Packers chances of winning the NFC North? They're @ 1.50, with the Bears @ 5.50, Lions @ 5.50 & Vikings @ 11.00.

Here are some multi combos I'm contemplating:

Division futures:
GB, NO, PIT, NE, SD @ 13.58
AND/OR
GB, PIT, NE, SD @ 6.03

[the_burninator]

Packers should roll, but I thought they would last year. A lot of people forget the Packers play-off hopes where not in their hands. It took at DeSean Jackson punt return to knock the Giants out of the play-offs last year.

[pominoz]

Out of curiosity I thought I'd take a second look at the 'expert' picks and compare them to the results:

Looking at the CBS Expert picks for the round, for the h2h picks (not necessarily being betting suggestions), all five members of the panel agreed on:

Green Bay v New Orleans <-- CORRECT
St Louis v Philadelphia <-- CORRECT
Houston v Indianapolis <-- CORRECT
Chicago v Atlanta <-- INCORRECT
San Francisco v Seattle <-- CORRECT
San Diego v Minnesota <-- CORRECT
Arizona v Carolina <-- CORRECT

I remember trying a few multis last year using the fixtures where the five 'experts' agreed, and on average there was always one fixture they all got wrong.

I'll provide an update on the lines once the round has completed, becuase three are still to play.

[pominoz]

Here are the expert line pick results:

For the picks versus the spread, the only fixture they all agreed on was
NY Jets v Dallas (+4.5) <-- CORRECT

Four of the five agreed on
Jacksonville v Tennessee (+3.5) <-- CORRECT
Washington v Giants (-3.5) <-- INCORRECT
Miami (+7.5) v New England <-- INCORRECT
Denver v Oakland (+3.5) <-- CORRECT

3/5 makes for a successful round.

One of the experts was 11/16 for the line picks, so I'll place close attention to him next round.

The Patriots offense are looking good. Do they have the best tight ends in the league, or is it just Brady making good use of them?

[Goodsy]

Here are the expert line pick results:

For the picks versus the spread, the only fixture they all agreed on was
NY Jets v Dallas (+4.5) <-- CORRECT

Four of the five agreed on
Jacksonville v Tennessee (+3.5) <-- CORRECT
Washington v Giants (-3.5) <-- INCORRECT
Miami (+7.5) v New England <-- INCORRECT
Denver v Oakland (+3.5) <-- CORRECT

3/5 makes for a successful round.

One of the experts was 11/16 for the line picks, so I'll place close attention to him next round.

The Patriots offense are looking good. Do they have the best tight ends in the league, or is it just Brady making good use of them?

Thats interesting.. will be interesting to see how this expert goes over the next week or two.. might be worth following.