NBA 2015 - 2016 season picks

[paul8209]

NBA Utah Jazz - Oklahoma City Thunder

Recommendation: Thunder - 3

Odds: 1.84

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Oklahoma looks like the real deal right now, going with strong 7 wins in the last 9 games. They’ve won comfortably against strong opponents like Atlanta and Memphis, and also have recorded an easy W here in Utah in the first game of the series, 111-89.

No reason to expect much improved performance from Jazz tonight. They continue to sorely miss the starting center Gobert. Favors is making for a decent fill in the center position but it would be a high bid for him to contain Ibaka, Adams and Kanter all alone. No need to mention that Durant is back at the very top of his game and Russell is just … Russell. Utah have good defenders but no defender is good enough for these 2 when they’re in the zone.

Everything’s clicking right for Thunder in the moment and any other result but an away win would be a surprise here.

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[paul8209]

NBA Portland Trail Blazers - New York Knicks

Recommendation: Blazers – 3.5

Odds: 1.98

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


These teams are heading into totally different directions right now. It’s not such a big surprise for the Knicks. The surprise was their good start of the season but the brutal reality hit them hard with 8 losses in their last 10 games. It’s all kept within the organization at this stage of course but I’d make an educated guess Phil Jackson is already actively exploring different trading opportunities for Carmelo, so Knicks collect some assets for him as they still can and start rebuilding around Porzingis. Speaking of the young kid, his production tailed off a bit lately but this is totally normal for a rookie and he has a great NBA future before him.

Portland rebuilding season is going very well, above all expectations. They have very outside chance to reach the play-offs of course but never stop trying to win games. As I’ve said on a few occasions everything’s circled around Lillard and McCollum with Blazers. McCollum caught fire again in the last games after a mini slump and I can’t see the very average Knicks perimeter defense containing these two successfully.

History is not so relevant because of the total Portland roster re-make, yet some trends are hard to turn around and Knicks are just in that kind of spot, with 12 losses here in the last 14 games

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[paul8209]

NBA Brooklyn Nets - Miami Heat

Recommendation: Heat - 4

Odds: 1.833

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


No surprises here, I’m in Nets fading camp again. They showed some signs of life in the close defeat against Clippers, only to erase all the good impressions with a blow-out at home against Orlando. Magic can’t really boast they have atomic offense and still Brooklyn let them shoot almost 54 % from the field, wnough said. I’ll not repeat myself either at the lack of motivation in Brooklyn too, prefer to focus on the Heat instead.

Nets are one of Miami’s favourite opponents in recent times. They have 6 consecutive wins over them, including a 4-game clean sweep last regular season. Heat beat teams with defense and they got the most efficient shot blocker in the game in the moment in Hassan Whiteside. So Brook Lopez will get a very decent match in the paint tonight. Trading rumours are circling around Hassan by the way in the last couple of days, involving possible swaps between him and Dwight Howard or DeMacrus Cousins. Miami organization is of course denying all trade rumours, albeit the old fox Pat Riley will listen carefully to every single possibility as Hassan should be a max-contract player next summer and Heat will hardly be able to afford that. Nothing is coming with immediate effect though. Riley is a very clever man and should realize that swapping Hassan for Dwight is a stupid move, even allowing for the contract situation. DeMarcus is way more decent alternative but I don’t believe Kings will let him go so easily.

So in a nutshell, Hassan should be ready to play and strong as always, he’s not a trouble-making guy anyway. Dragic got a tooth knocked off in the last game but should be ready to play too, so Heat in full strength should deal with Nets more or less easily.

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[paul8209]

NBA Miami Heat - Toronto Raptors

Recommendation: Heat - 4

Odds: 1.847

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

Again exploiting the tough schedule of the visiting team here. They are one of unlucky few teams to have a game yesterday night. Even more painfully, they’ve lost in OT in Charlotte after almost feeling the win in their hands with DeRozan scoring from the half court… only if Raptors’ coach hadn’t signaled for a time-out a second before the shot.

So as a reward Toronto have to play another team playing hard defense. This is a little underestimation indeed as Miami leads Eastern Conference in points allowed and opponent’s shooting percentage. Raptors continue to play without starting center Valanciunas and DeMarr Caroll is also still on the sidelines with a knee injury. These two severely limit the team’s big men rotation and offensive power and I’m pretty sure Whiteside and Chris Bosh will have advantage tonight. Luol Deng is likely to miss the game for Miami at the other hand but he’s not much of a contributor as this stage of his career anyway.

Last season Toronto won the season series 2-1 but Miami has tremendous advantage over them in the last seasons (ok, LBJ was still in Miami). Heat won comfortably the first game this season here 96-76 so another double digit win would be just in the correct order of things

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[paul8209]

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves - San Antonio Spurs

Recommendation: OVER 196

Odds: 2.00

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Minny are shaky at home and have notoriously bad match-up against San Antonio, so I easily skipped the thought of backing them plus a ton of points. They’ve raised their offensive game to much better level compared to season beginning though. Lead by Ricky Rubio on the point, the ball movement and shot selection have been very decent in the last 5-6 games of theirs indeed.

They still make a ton of turnovers which cost them losses in close games, yet Wolves surpass or get close to 100 points on regular basis currently. It will be way tougher game tonight than last easy win over Brooklyn as SAS have undisputed advantage in the series.

Still Pop doesn’t like too many useless efforts thrown on the court once the win is secured. If they lead by 20 midway through the 4th Q, it’s easy to think they’ll let Minny score a bunch of easy lay-ups.

Teams have surpassed this total line in 6 of the last 7 games between them, so hopefully this exact trend continues tonight.

[paul8209]

NBA Chicago Bulls - Indiana Pacers

Recommendation: UNDER 201

Odds: 2.00

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


This game has all the necessary requisitions to be a low scoring one. Indiana and Chicago have been old rivals in the Central Division, going back to the old school times when MJ used to face Reggie Miller in a series of epic encounters and thrash talking battles J No love lost between the teams ever after and most games have some play-off bound atmosphere around them.

Chicago have underperformed a bit this season as I’ve mentioned before. This is mainly caused by Rose / Butler competition for the stardom of being the franchise player, something which drops both guys’ game performances IMO. Things are not going into the right direction as Jimmy Boy is allowing himself a public critics on the coach, etc., so it’s highly probable a major change is coming over the hill for Bulls, i.e. Rose trade (so Butler is happy), coach change, etc. Until that happens though it seems Chicago like to reserve their best performance for the league’s better teams, where Indiana surely belongs.

Pacers got back on the track with 2 consecutive wins after 3 games losing streak. Paul George is in the middle of a shooting slump but Monta Ellis and the bench guys have compensated it; yet Pacers usually don’t provide high scoring games without their leader and franchise player George being hot. Paul will surely be matched against Jimmy on both ends of the floor tonight, so will see whose player’ claims are more valid.

I definitely think Pacers have chances to take this game but usually find it very hard to win in Chicago. These teams already exchanged one win this season, each taking his respective home game. The last 8 games in the series have finished under the total line here and I see very good chances this trend to continue

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[paul8209]

NBA Orlando Magic - Indiana Pacers

Recommendation: UNDER 198.5

Odds: 1.97

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Both teams need the win here, I expect quite hard-fought and physical game.

Orlando have looked completely lost defensively in their last 3 road losses and Coach Skiles has publicly expressed that he expects way better defensive attitude tonight. Orlando enjoys strong home record so a better performance is surely on the cards, albeit I’m not sure Magic will be able to defeat Pacers.

Indiana haven’t enjoyed much success in the New Year either, with 1 win in 3 matches. Starting PG George Hill was out last game with a food poisoning and his status is unclear today. His backup C. J. Miles left the game with right arm injury, also questionable. So Pacers will likely be a bit short on the ball distribution position and their ball movement may struggle.

Both teams should start feeling some tiredness after the grueling holiday schedule, another pointer in the slower paced-game direction. Pacers drew first blood this season, defeating Magic in Indiana in a low scoring affair, 97-84. I fully expect something similar for one of the teams tonight, whoever shoots the ball better wins it

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NBA Los Angeles Clippers - Charlotte Hornets

Recommendation: Clippers - 6.5

Odds: 1.877

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


You’ll hardly find a better example for two teams going in opposing directions.

Clippers are red-hot, riding 7-game winning streak, and most impressive of all, without their leading scorer Blake Griffin. It’s true they haven’t played any of the NBA power-houses, yet most of these wins came quite easy and comfortably, with a few starters on the bench in the waning trash minutes. They’ve won in Charlotte during this streak, 122-117.

Hornets lost 5 in a row and are quite pathetic honestly. They just broke on the defensive end. Well, their excuse is the continuing injury crisis. They lack a player or two almost in every game. Big Al Jefferson is oit until mid Feb somewhere, and Nic Batum is questionable for tonight. Zeller will try to fill up the slack in the center tonight but I can only wish him luck against the monster that is DeAndre.

Redick has helped significantly in carrying the offensive load for the Clipps, Chris Paul is as smooth as ever distributing the ball, and Charlotte should do a small wonder to escape defeat tonight, most probably a double digit one

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[paul8209]

NBA San Antonio Spurs - Cleveland Cavaliers

Recommendation: Cavs + 7

Odds: 1.925

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


This game is the highlight of the night and has the potential to turn into instant classic.

Both teams are in top 3 of the strongest basketball teams in the world right now (read top 3 in NBA ). San Antonio dynasty is on pace to record maybe the best regular season in franchise history, too bad for them GSW are stealing the best part of the plaudits with that shameless 36-3 record. Spurs have tuned their home floor into a real fortress, being unbeaten here so far with 22-0.

Things are not looking quite promising for King James and his Cavaliers then. Let’s not forget that Cleveland was the last team to defeat SAS here in a regular season game, 128-125 in OT game last March. Cleveland are not so dominating over their opponents on the stats end, yet they also run 8-game winning streak of their own. It’s well known LBJ likes to impose a revenge on teams which have made him suffer in the past, and San Antonio definitely fall into that category. Kyrie is also very much the old Kyrie before his lengthy absence and has a definitive advantage in speed over his counterpart Tony Parker.

It’s simple, two excellent teams will play basketball from another planet. Spurs chances seem slightly better really, but that’s why we get plus 6-7 points spread, not a neglectable insurance at all, so I feel it’s a must try here for the Cavs

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NBA Houston Rockets - Detroit Pistons

Recommendation: OVER 206

Odds: 1.884

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


The first game in the series finished 116-105 for Detroit and it will be pretty normal to expect a bounce back from Rockets and split for the season. I very much prefer the OVER play though as many reasons support the probability for an entertaining game.

Houston have always relied on outscoring the opponent to win games, and frankly speaking they’re quite good at it. Detroit held them to under 40 % from the field in the first game and still let 106 points. Pistons themselves have slipped badly on the defensive end in their last 4-5 games, allowing close to 105 opponents’ points. Stan Van Gundy publicly expressed his disgust with his boys defensive effort but it’s easier said than done, especially when you play against a superstar looking at the referees everytime when somebody breathe too close to him.

We’ll surely see quite a lot of heck-a tactics tonight, respectively Howard and Drummond. This is usually done in the early seconds of a possession so generally leads to a few more possessions being played in every quarter after the first one. If both centers make a miracle and score like 60 % from FT, that will surely be welcomed at my end too

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NBA New York Knicks - Los Angeles Clippers

Recommendation: OVER 205

Odds: 1.943

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

The frantic schedule is taking its toll as usual for the weeks preceding the All-Star weekend. Too many players are injured and their participation in tonight’s games is questionable, or at least their level of performance if they still dress up.

Luckily the situation in this game is way clearer and I very much like this total line. Knicks have only 2 rotation players (Seraphin and lance Thomas) with knocks but they’re not so important. New York are perfect so far on their homestand with 2 wins out of 2 games. They were achieved against Sixers and Jazz though, both in overtimes and Knicks allowed 113 and 111 points respectively. So their defense is hardly at the required level, to speak mildly. Carmelo & Porzingis tandem is clicking at the other side of the floor though and this is what I need from them tonight.

Clippers played yesterday in Cleveland, lost by 13 points. The score doesn’t make them much justice though as the match was closer as a level of performance. So tiredness is a minus of course, yet Knicks defense is not at a world-beating standard as I said. Chris Paul is angry because of his omission of All-Star starters and will likely go for some 25+ points again, nobody is even close to stopping him the whole Big Apple, let alone Knicks roster. Redick leads NBA in 3-pts. percentage with just under 50 % efficiency, and DeAndre will just do some DeAndre things (dunking on people and making 50 % from FT).

I expect a sort of 102-108 game, more likely for Clipps, let’s see

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Los Angeles Clippers - Chicago Bulls

Recommendation: Bulls + 5.5

Odds: 1.925

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


It seems like q quite risky play but I am inclined to think Chicago have better chance than the spread and odds suggests. Clippers play good ball lately, no denying the obvious. Their pure stats line reads only 3 losses in the last 10 games. A more detailed glimpse behind the curtain though shows 2 of the wins came after OT, 2 of the losses were against good rivals (Cavs and Raptors), and finally LA really rode their luck in the wins over Indy and Atlanta.

It seems like variance will make a move on them in a negative way very soon, moreover they tend to struggle on the offensive end against teams with decent perimeter defense (so Redick and Paul don't shoot too many uncontested threes) and a strong paint protectors (so DeAndre doesn't dunk too many times a game).

Chicago definitely fills both categories. They are up and down this season generally, pretty poor stretch currently. Yet Bulls took nice wins over solid opponents like Detroit and Cleveland on the road, plus performed in a dominating fashion over Lakers (well, not really a great accomplishment). The spirit is high and Bulls surely want to make everything possible to record a road sweep over the Los Angeles teams. Rose will be additionally motivated to show a few good things against a top notch PG like Paul, Jimmy Boy should be also in a positive mood after being selected as an All-Star reserve. Pau Gasol and Gibson will have a hard but far than impossible task of slowing down DeAndre in the paint.

All in all, the spread gives us a good cushion, it's a point or two bigger than what I expected

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[paul8209]

NBA Boston Celtics - Oklahoma City Thunder /

Recommendation: Thunder -4

Odds: 1.84

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

Boston’s need is slightly greater here arguably but it’s NBA and the motivation factor very rarely wins games by itself. Boston and Miami will fight each other till the last regular season game (probably) for the third seed in the East.

Unfortunately, Boston seem like a team going through a rough patch lately. They lost against Houston here at Boston Garden and against Indiana yesterday. Celtics continue to play without forward Jay Crowder who is one of their better defenders (maybe even the best defender on the roster) and proven scorers like Harden and Paul George exploited this absence.

Oklahoma never have troubles with scoring when both Durant and Westbrook play and there’s no doubt they’ll punish Boston too (not that Crowder could possibly stop any of these 2). Thunder recorded a very fine and confident win over Portland, by 20+ points and are ready to start this mini 3-game road trip on the right foot. Isaiah Thomas, Celtics best player this season, will be in quite a disadvantage against Russell, and Thunder have a bunch of decent big bodies in the frontcourt to throw at Sullinger, Amir Johnson and Jerebko.

Boston took advantage of Durant’s absence in November to win in Oklahoma, the revenge is best served cold though and is coming back at them tonight

from Basketball Betting Service Newsletter

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[paul8209]

NBA Indiana Pacers - Oklahoma City Thunder

Recommendation: Thunder - 3

Odds: 1.877

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Going against my favourite Pacers here as I don’t see too many chances for them tonight unfortunately. They are still on pace for landing our antepost bet on them for a positive season record and I doubt Indiana will let so big turnaround in their fortune as to miss the play-offs. First round exit is on the cards though and it’s evident that this team needs a second (semi-)star to help Paulie Gold as Monta Ellis can’t fill properly this role anymore.

Pacers have lost 2 of the last 3 and have been outrebounded in these games. Myles Turner production dwindled which is very much excusable for a rookie but George’s shooting percentage lately (around 35 %) is not really.

Thunder are roaring, at least when playing lesser teams J

They’ve lost the first game in the series in Oklahoma and revenge should be a big factor for both Westbrook and Durant. Russell is having his best season arguably, recording triple-doubles with speed, being achieved only by Grant Hill and J-Kidd before. Oklahoma won easily against Sixers, preserved some energy for tonight’s game. Indiana won’t give up easily but Oklahoma will prevail in the end.

from Basketball Betting Service Newsletter

[paul8209]

Washington Wizards - Atlanta Hawks

Recommendation: Wizards ML

Odds: 1.943

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


I can’t quite agree with Hawks being the slight favourite here (at least with the opening lines). Wizards just won in a nice fashion over them (this is home-and-home series) in Atlanta, 117-102. Washington were way more aggressive, determined and motivated team and there’s no reason why they won’t play in the same way tonight.

Atlanta are still a decent team and could bounce back strongly of course but they usually struggle here in Washington, at least in the regular season games. Wizards have won 4 of the last 5 regular season meetings in the series and boast a very strong home form overall, with only 1 loss in their last 10 home games. They have stepped up the pedal just on time to launch their challenge for the last remaining East play-off spot and will try to record their 6th straight win.

They are clicking evidently, John Wall is playing like a player with no real flaw right now, Bradley Beal is shaking off some rust after the injury and the frontcourt is reliable with Gortat, backup Nene and the recent addition of the Morris twin (always got their names wrong, so they’re both Morris twins for me, now when in different teams J ).

Overall, Wizards" arguments sound more solid here

from Basketball Betting Service Newsletter