NFL picks 2015 - 2016

[paul8209]

NFL: Buffalo Bills - New England Patriots

The Bills won 22-17 over Jets and have had 11 days to rest and prepare for this, but things do not get any easier and a road trip to Foxborough is always a daunting prospect, the Patriots are involved in a staring contest with the Panthers as the two remaining unbetaen teams, but Carolina showed no signs of blinking last night and now New England will want to follow suit. However, they were taken as close as possible (without losing) by the Giants last week and meet the Bills whilst they are at their strongest and fittest ( see above) and the visitors are looking to build some momentum of their own. Pats will be without wide receiver Julian Edelman, cornerback Justin Coleman and linebacker Jamie Collins, that weakens them and it is easy to see some joy in this for the Bills after the Giants gained 361 through the air last week, with a far less balanced offense than the Bills will bring to the party.

Tom Brady posted record numbers against the Bills in the last meeting (second highest for him, most ever given up by Buffalo) earlier this season, but two things about that, the Bills are stronger now, Edelman caught two of those TD passes and New England still "only" won by eight points and would have been even closer if Sammy Watkins had held onto a pass on the Bills final drive. It will be close to impossible (never say never with Brady !) to gain that sort of yardage tonight and I have to favour Buffalo with the touchdown start.

Buffalo Bills +7 at 1.91 at Sportmarket Pro

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[paul8209]

NFL Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys

I do kind of feel that my hands are tied over the Panthers, we keep betting them, they win comfortably every week and next time out the oddsmakers underestimate them yet again and the cycle starts again. They saw off the Redskins inside two quarters with four first half touchdown passes from Cam Newton who is having the time of his life, he was miked up for the game and just doesn't know the meaning of the word pressure and is simply enjoying himself. The big passes would have made most highlight packages, but the plays where he and the Carolina coaching staff were continually drawing the Redskins offside were no less impressive.

Today they have to travel to play the Cowboys on a short week and for once, Newton probably will not be the most talked about quarterback in this game, with Tony Romo having made his return for Dallas last week, during his two months on the sidelines the Cowboys went 0-7, when Romo plays they are 3-0 and they got straight back on track versus Miami last Sunday in a 24-14 victory. It kind of feels like the entire organisation has been waiting for him to get suited up and the team were clearly boosted by his return, but NFL football is not quite that simple and Romo or not, only two of the Cowboys last ten regular season wins have come against a team with a winning record and they are going to be asked some serious questions today.

Newton will not like the focus being on his counterpart, but will love the huge television audience and the stage is set for another virtuoso performance.

Carolina Panthers + 1 point 1.98 Pinnacle Sports/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.

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[paul8209]

NFL Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs have won eight in a row and the Panthers aside, are the hottest team in the NFL right now and they can put huge pressure on the Broncos who play Cincinnati tomorrow, in the race for the AFC West division. That sequence of wins has come by an average of 17.5 points and includes wins over two of the Brown's divisional rivals who are both stronger defensively than Cleveland and to be honest, in all areas of the game. They also posted wins over two teams with 9+ victories to their name and all eight had a better win record than Cleveland. Therefore, it is very difficult to see beyond the home win and this is all about the handicap, as already discussed the Chiefs have been averaging a touchdown more and this is probably the easiest game on paper and one of the most important. Browns have lost their last five starts against teams with a winning record by 34-17-21-21-14 points and the Chiefs have the balanced offense to put up very similar numbers. The visitors are without key outside linebacker Armonty Bryant who did not travel after being arrested on Christmas morning , they have doubts also about offensive linemen Cameron Erving , Alex Mack , Joe Thomas , running back Duke Johnson and receiver Marlon Moore who are all questionable (50% chance of playing). Chiefs by two TD's +.

Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 points 1.91 Pinnacle Sports /Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro

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[paul8209]

NFL Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins

I have not been overly complementary about these two teams this season, but I must admit to being impressed with how the Redskins looked to keep their momentum up last week, when they could have just "rolled over" with nothing to play for at Dallas and they come into the post season in their best form of the season and in relatively good shape injury wise. Their pass rushers could have a bit of field day against what is now a porous line protecting Aaron Rodgers, with the superstar quarterback being sacked 47 times, as opposed to the Redskins giving up just 27. Green Bay have lost 6 of 10 starts since their bye week, have given up an average of just shy of 30 points in their four games in that sequence against teams with a winning record and lost two of the others. They have never looked in danger of beating a "good team" , apart from the Vikings ( who comprehensively avenged that defeat last weekend) since Week 3 and confidence is shot and in stark contrast to the team from the capital.

This is priced as more of less a "pick" and I feel the Redskins should be asked to give up 3 points, maybe a even a shade more.

Washington Redskins -1 point 2.02 Pinnacles sports/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro

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[paul8209]

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Most of us know about the dangers of playing in Foxborough in January and of ever underestimating Tom Brady , Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots , but right now the Pats look as vulnerable as at any time this season and getting the Chiefs, who are looking for a 12th straight win, with more than a field goal start, seems too good to let pass.

The Patriots have more than a third of their roster listed on the injury report and whilst we have spoken about that in terms of mis-information already this season, several key players are genuinely carrying knocks, including their two main receivers and missing practice, when timing is so important for these guys is very far from ideal. New England have not won in a month and since Week 10, they have beaten the Giants by 1 (game they should have lost), Buffalo by 7, lost to Denver and at home to the Eagles (who missed out on the post season), they did then beat the Texans ( whom Kansas thrashed 30-0 last week) and the 3-13 Titans (who did not want to win !) and then lost to the Jets and Dolphins. It doesn't read that well ! They have a make- do offensive line, which might not be fair to "make-do" and the Chiefs seem sure to get to Brady and whist he rarely throws interceptions, he can certainly be harried, my thinking is that is that if this exact situation featured anyone other than Brady, Chiefs would be favourites .

KC have won their last 11 games, including on the road to Denver and to the Texans last week and comparable form, favours the visitors.

Kansas City +4 points 2.03 Pinnacle/Vegas /Sportmarket Pro and I have also played the straight ML win on Kansas @ 3.0 + Betfair/Sportmarket Pro

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