NFL picks 2016 - 2017

[paul8209]

NFL: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Chargers are improving and will be confident no doubt after a 21-13 win over the Broncos just 17 days ago, but at home, on a quick turnaround against a team coming off their first loss of the season, is not the same as playing in Mile High with the Broncos back on track after a 27-9 win over the Texans. Chargers did follow up at at the Falcons last week, which looks good on paper, but they were 17 points down at one stage and needed 450 + yards of offense to win a game in overtime and this Denver defense will not allow that many in their own stadium, or blow a double digit lead. Also, they do not lose twice to a divisional opponent, especially one who is not going to win the section and there is the small matter of revenge and that San Diego are not very good on the road, where they have lost 11/13. Broncos have won the last three h2h meetings in Colorado, all by 7 + points and with Denver suddenly a big running team with full back Andy Janovich opening huge holes for the running backs who appear to have realised later than most what an asset the 23yo is, punching massive openings for them to run through. I see this as a great match up for Denver despite the recent loss and 7 points as the minimum margin again.

Denver Broncos - 4 points 2.05 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

NFL: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

I favour the Redskins and am very tempted by odds of 3.50 to win this, but will probably end up going with them getting a few points start.

I opposed Dallas at the weekend writing.............

"The Ravens will want to keep their lead over the Steelers until they meet again on Christmas Day ( what a treat !) and I have to say I like them getting a touchdown start against the Cowboys, who Pittsburgh kept to within five last week and this is my idea of the "upset" of the day. Dallas are 8-1, but five games were decided by a touchdown or less and two of the other four were against teams with a combined record of 2-17. Key for me will be the run, Dallas have been able to move the ball on the ground freely, but Baltimore are very difficult to run against (ranked #1), that might force the Cowboys into a more one dimensional offense and Baltimore have had an extra three days to recover and prepare."

That should have been the "upset", Baltimore led by 7 and looked in control until the game turned on one play and some terrible, shoot yourself in the foot, penalties from the Ravens. Cowboys played well enough offensively in the second half to win , Dez Bryant stepping up with some very important receptions and lots of people will have been impressed with how they played, but I have some real doubts about them defensively and they do not look like a 9-1 team to me. Dallas can afford to lose and still stay in control of the division, for the Redskins, they really need to keep winning.

Washington have a very balanced offense with two runners "sharing" circa 900 yards and Kirk Cousins having a career defining season.They have put up 95 points against "winning" teams in the last three weeks. The Skins lost the reverse meeting 27-23, but Prescott, Bryant and Elliott all had big games for Dallas and still Washington came so close and should have won, wasting a series of good field positions in the second half , everything went wrong for them, right for Dallas and still they kept to within 4 points and Washington look much improved since. So too are Dallas of course, but that defeat and maybe more than one, is coming and I fancy the first could be today, points and the "away" win !

Washington Redskins + 5.5 points 2.03 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/ Sportmarket Pro.
"over" 52 points 2.05 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/ Sportmarket Pro.

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[paul8209]

NFL: Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders

I have been praising and siding with the fast improving Raiders for a few weeks and want to stick with them today.

Briefly, I find it very hard to make a case for the moving backwards Panthers, their offensive line had looked to be improving slightly, but what they do best is going to be large ineffective against the Raiders and the lightning fast release of Derek Carr, there just won't be time enough for Carolina to get to him, especially missing team leaders all over the show.

Sack leader Mario Addison is out, along with Pro Bowlers center Ryan Kalil and middle line backer Luke Kuechly, those two are team "captains" and give signals. guidelines and directions to their units and are just massive, massive losses.

Oakland Raiders -4 points 2.17 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

NFL: Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Jets are out of the post season reckoning and rebuilding for next season will soon be under way, they will doubtless be up for this, with the spotlight on them and the nation watching, but it is very difficult to see how they can match the motivation of the visiting team for four quarters. The Jets are 1-4 at home and whilst three of those came against two good and one decent team, the loss to the offensively shy Rams, where LA had the most passing yards in the game with just 165, was dismal. I spoke about the Rams woes yesterday.

The Colts would have been delighted to have sat and watched their divisional rivals the Texans lose last night and they can move into a three way tie for the lead in the AFC South with the win, Colts, Houston and Titans would all then be on 6-6 and from that position, Indianapolis, who have been here before, would fancy their chances, infact, they do and have spoken about that this week. However, they probably need to win 4 from 5 and two have to be today and at home to the Texans (as they already lost in Houston) this coming weekend, they have difficult road trips to Minnesota and Oakland and have to allow themselves some leeway. 9-7 could be enough and that took this division last season, but it would not suffice without going 2/2 this week. So this is it, season defining 7 days for Indy who get quarterback Andrew Luck back from a concussion absence, he has practiced fully the last three days and is raring to go and he will lead (IMO) the pass heavy visitors to a 5-7 point win. The Colts are 2-3 on the road, losing at the Broncos, Texans and Jags who are ranked #1, #5 and #2 respectively against the pass and beating the #17 Packers and #26 Titans and the Jets ? They fit nicely in at number 22 and look ripe for the picking ! The Colts have a young receiving group, but are improving and will get better, senior amongst them is T.Y Hilton, who held a meeting with his fellow receivers this week to discuss what they needed to do to beat the man on man coverage of the almost certain to be blitzing Jets. Hilton's corps dropped three big passers last week , which probably cost 14 points, but they have worked hard to correct those errors this last week + and should be more in sync with the returning Luck and have had 11 days to prepare for this.

Indianapolis Colts -2 points 1.95 Pinnacle /Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro

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