NBA 2016 - 2017 season

[paul8209]

NBA: Washington Wizards - Toronto Raptors

Recommendation: Raptors -1

Odds: 1.952


Odds seem almost like a trap here, with Toronto being the far classier side. Wizards have a negative expectation for this season, compared with the last one, but they still have to win some games, linger around the 9-10th place in the East and wait for next summer free agents market.

This is their home opener actually and John Wall and Co will find some motivation to perform well in front of their fans. It’s one thing to plan and desire something and another thing to make it happen though.

Toronto swept the season series 4-0 last season. They might not repeat this feat, it’s hard to do it twice in a row with a semi-competitive team, but 3-1 seems like a legit result for the season.

Washington experience much difficulties when playing against opponents with strong backcourt (like Raptors, quite obviously). I am not a fan of Wizards’ perimeter defense too and hope Lowry will finally catch some fire and knock down some 3’s, while slowing down Wall on the defensive end.

All in all, I see this game as Toronto’s win to lose, let’s see

from Clubgowi Basketball Service

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[paul8209]

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks – New Orleans Pelicans

Recommendation: Bucks - 5

Odds: 1.87

I think I’ve made myself clear enough, Pelicans will be one of the weakest teams this season. Actually, they are front-runners to be the worst team in the league and to guarantee themselves the best chance to win the lottery. It’s still very early for intentional tanking, they are still very bad and don’t possess deep enough NBA-ready roster besides Davis. The bench situation is even more dramatic, pretty naturally.

Bucks already took the first win in this season’s series, a week ago in New Orleans, and will actually clean sweep Pelicans with a win tonight. Milwaukee come off a 3 days rest tonight, fresh and motivated to continue they good home form with a 4th consecutive victory here.

They play way more freely at home. The last 2 wins here were quite good and comfortable ones, over Sacramento and Indiana. Milwaukee have more than enough big bodies to throw at Davis on the defensive end. It will be a total surprise if they don’t have the rebounding edge too.

All in all, I can’t see New Orleans stopping Bucks from scoring buckets tonight, so hopefully the mid spread won’t prove to be a problem

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[paul8209]

NBA: Sacramento Kings - Los Angeles Clippers

I wondered back and forth in circles as to which is the higher percentage play here, Clipps to cover 8 points spread or OVER. LA are expected to bounce back after the surprising home loss from Memphis. At the other hand, I wouldn’t say Clipps are as strong mentally team as Spurs, Cavs or Warriors, for example. Sacramento win here will be a surprise, yes, but not a total shock. And I doubt eventual Clippers win will come as easy as odds suggest, unless Cousins starts arguing with the refs and gets thrown out or make another stupid thing.

He played well in last season series with Clipps by the way, recording something like 22+ pts. and 12+ rbs. on average. This very much suits his psychological profile, he is eager to compete and measure his skills with the best big men in the league, just like DeAndre Jordan. So I expect a committed performance by DeMarcus.

Actually, these teams surpassed this total line in all 4 meetings last season. There is a perfect explanation for the lower line here though. Clippers play one of the best (if not the best) defense in the league so far. They have the biggest points differential in the league with almost 15 pts. Margin between points scored and allowed on average. This is of course unsustainable for a whole season, albeit Doc Rivers and his boys deserve full credit for the job on the defensive end in the off season.

Yet Kings lost quite narrowly, 105-110, to San Antonio in their last game here in Sacramento. I see pretty good chances they surpass the hundred mark once again, which would mean a winning play most probably.

Recommend.: OVER 205

Odds: 2.01

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[paul8209]

NBA: Sacramento Kings - Oklahoma City Thunder

The line is set about right, maybe only a point or two bigger than it should be. Yet I see decent chances this game develops into a shootout, something like 120-115 for one of them.

Both team’s strength is not the defensive part of the game. Kings usually make entertaining home games as their fans (and even their owner) very much prefer to see wins like that 120-115, instead of 100-95. Demarcus is hungry for points to his statistics as always, no need to mention that, but even Rudy Gay remembered his old days like one of the leagues’ elite one-on-one scorers lately.

Thunder lost disappointingly at LA against Lakers. Their defense wasn’t on the required level and it will be tested tonight again. At the same time, Westbrook is relentless, he attacks the rim again and again, almost single-handedly made a near come-back in LA.

3 of the 4 meetings in this series last season finished well over this total.

Recommend: OVER 213

Odds: 2.00

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[paul8209]

NBA: Charlotte Hornets - Detroit Pistons

I’m a bit surprised that Pistons receive such a high regard here, being given only +3 points on the spread. The reason probably is that they have had a day more rest than Hornets, who are back-to-back. The b2b factor is weighing less and less in present day NBA though, with all the medical attention players receive, plus the general schedule this season is way lighter than in the last years.

The rest can’t really compensate for Pistons terrible road form. They have only 1 win in 9 road games so far and are just not the same team, at home and on the road. Charlotte boosted their win column with 2 nice wins over Memphis in a home-and-home series and will be eager to build on that. Only Marvin Williams stays inactive for them with injury, the other players with minor knocks played normally against Grizzlies.

Charlotte won 3 of 4 against Detroit in last season series, including both games here. Anything else bar another home win would be a surprising result here. Hornets average around 2 rbs. per game more than Detroit (rebounding is presumably one of Motor City boys strongest sides behind Andre Drummond) and around 10 (!) pts. more on the offensive end.

Recommendation: Hornets -3

Odds: 2.02

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