SL v AUS 1st Test - Galle

[Goodsy]

So, Australian Cricket returns to the test arena for the 1st time since our disastrous ASHES campaign last summer. Looking forward to this test series... lot of questions out there on the Aussies, how will we respond... and what selections will we come up with.

Current on odds on Sportingbet:

SL - $5
Draw - $1.62
Aus - $3.75

Ive had a look at the weather, looks to be some rain around for each day, which I guess explains the draw being fave. From my understanding it looks like most of the bad weather will be at night, could be wrong of course.

For me this is a flip of the coin job.. I might put money on both SL and Aus and hope for wickets to come thick and fast on both sides..

Test kicks of tomorrow, Wed, from 2pm I think it is..

What is everyone else thinking ?

[pominoz]

I'm finding this one hard to pick too.

One option is to back both Australia and the draw. Say, $5 on Aus and $10 on the draw. That works out to:

Sri Lanka win --> lose $15.00
Draw --> win $1.20
Australia win --> win $3.75

Hmmm. That doesn't look very enticing actually.

From espncricinfo the possible squads are:

Sri Lanka (possible): 1 Tillakaratne Dilshan (capt), 2 Tharanga Paranavitana / Lahiru Thirimanne, 3 Kumar Sangakkara, 4 Mahela Jayawardene, 5 Thilan Samaraweera, 6 Prasanna Jayawardene (wk), 7 Angelo Mathews, 8 Suranga Lakmal, 9 Rangana Herath, 10 Ajantha Mendis, 11 Chanaka Welegedara.

Australia (possible): 1 Shane Watson, 2 Phillip Hughes, 3 Ricky Ponting, 4 Michael Clarke (capt), 5 Michael Hussey, 6 Usman Khawaja, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 Mitchell Johnson, 9 Ryan Harris, 10 Trent Copeland / Nathan Lyon, 11 Michael Beer.

[Goodsy]

I decided to go the following -

SL - $10 @$5
Aus - $15 @$3.75

So if SL win I will profit $25, if Aus win I will profit $31.25.. so that way I will cheer on Australia, but if SL win I will still profit. Just gotta hope its not a draw. I have noticed odds have changed since I did my punt. Its now the following -

SL - $4.50
Draw - $1.67
Aus - $3.95

I hope Copeland gets a run instead of 2 spinners, even though this will be a turning track.. our spinners are just not up to it. Don't see the point in picking 2 spinners who average more than 40 a wicket, then a medium/fasty who averages 20 a wicket. The numbers point to Copeland, especially considering he grabbed 6 of the 12 wickets in the tour game.

[pominoz]

I'm inclined to agree. Sub-continent batsmen are so used to playing spin that they'll have little difficulties against (very) average spinners. I'd give Copeland the nod. My understanding is that he is more likely to play than a second spinner.

I'll probably watch from the sidelines at the beginning, and if I have a strong opinion I'll then bet later.

How's this for a stat?: Sri Lanka have won only one of their past 12 Tests, while Australia have won one of their past eight.

[Andy Marshall]

Speculative series multi.
Provides a bit of interest for the whole 3 tests.

Mitchell Johnson most Aus wickets @ 3.25
Michael Clarke most Aus runs @ 5.50
$5 on multi @ 17.85

Clarke is our best player of spin, and Johnson had a good one day series. Johnson will take a bag of wickets during at least one innings of the series. A few other scalps here and there should be enough.

[pominoz]

After about an hour's delay the Test has started. Hopefully the weather will hold out for you Goodsy.

Copeland is playing. Interesting to see that Clarke won the toss and chose to bat in wet/overcast conditions.

[Goodsy]

I was surprised like you pominoz to see CLarke bat 1st .. though I would rather face the SL spinners on a first and third day wicket instead of a fifth day wicket, so happy with Clarkes decision to bat first.

Shame Ponting just got out in the 40s.. good to see him scoring runs atleast.

Looks like this could be a low scoring test, anuything over 250 will be competitive... you would think. Already uneven bounce and spinning a long way.

Goodluck for you multi Andy, must admit it got me thinking.. but stuck with match win bets.

[pominoz]

You're certainly getting the wickets you were hoping for Goodsy. I will reserve jugement on the wicket until I've seen the Sri Lankans bat.

Good luck with your multi Andy. I like the logic in it.

[Andy Marshall]

The Aussie batsmen seem to have carried on their form from the Ashes series. The top 8 all got starts and made it to double figures, but only Hussey got past 50.

First innings completed on day 1 is a good start to your bets Goodsy. Hope the wickets continue to tumble today!

[pominoz]

The draw odds have blown out to 7.00 on Betfair. SL already 54/3 so it's so far so good for your plays Goodsy. It looks like the weather will be your main enemy at this stage.

SL are crawling with a 1.80 RR.

[Goodsy]

I was hoping for 40 wickets on day 1.. though thats just being greedy. Will take 1st innings done :-)

Happy with play so far, this test is guaranteed a result as long as the rain stays away, which i think it should do. At this rate looking for a finish on day 3.

Watson with 3 quick wickets and Lyon also grabbing a further 2 quick wickets all in last 30 mins to have SL reeling at 8/100 before tea day 2. Australia well on top..

SL $6
Draw $15
Aus $1.16

Anything tempting you in play so far pominoz ? Or you gonna wait a bit longer ? See if SL can try and push Aus odds out a little ?

[pominoz]

Wow. Australia 115/6. I know you wanted 40 wickets on day 1, but 16 wickets on day 2 isn't bad.

105 all out in the first innings of a test match is atrocious. I haven't watched any of the game myself. Is the wicket that bad?

I've been too slow to act on this one. I didn't pay any attention yesterday evening, so I missed the bulk of the Sri Lankan wickets.

I will wait and see. The Australian odds may lift a little if the tail goes quickly. It will be interesting to see how the Sri Lankan top order goes the second time round. If they start to lose wickets cheaply I may jump on board at ultra low odds.

The best play is probably to lay the draw, but I don't have enough funds on Betfair at the moment.

[Goodsy]

Plenty of uneven bounce and the ball is spinning a mile. Its no wonder on pitches like this that Murali grabbed so many wickets.

Ive been watching it on Foxsports, but you can also watch it on the net at crictime.com for free which I do when the missus has the tv..

Australia are now 8 wickets from victory, with SL needing another 350odd runs... match will be all over today.. looking forward to seeing if Lyon can grab 5 in the 2nd innings and walk away wiht a 10wicket match... huge effort if he does in his 1st test...

[pominoz]

I'm now on board backing Australia. Won't make much, but didn't feel I was taking on much risk. Looks like a $31.25 profit is coming your way Goodsy, well played!

SL 88/5 needing another 294.

[pominoz]

SL 141/5. Aussies need to break this partnership.