SL V AUS 2nd Test

[Mike Wilson]

Does anyone have any early thought on some possible bets so far?

[pominoz]

Depends on the weather and the pitch (blatantly obvious, I know ). The pitch was so poor at Galle that Sri Lanka now face possible sanctions over it! It was the type of wicket that guaranteed a result (I tip my hat to Goodsy for backing Aus and SL for that Test). Both sides described Galle as offering extreme spin and variable bounce, so it will be interesting to see what the wickets shape up to be in Pallekele.

If the forecast is good I'd back Australia. Apart from the 2nd innings partnership between Jayawardene and Mathews SL were awful in the 1st Test.

Some more conservative approaches are:

If the wicket looks good back Australia and the draw.

If the wicket looks poor back Australia and Sri Lanka.

[Goodsy]

Ive got to have a closer look at the weather now we are closer to the game.. I checked the other day and it did not look good at all.. so will have another closer look tomorrow. THe draw is my concern..

Pallakele, I think its still fairly new stadium so not much history to go by neither.

Now that Australia have won the 1st test I can't see SL making a flat wicket to boost their batsmens average above 50, they need to go for a win... while the pitch will be much better than Galle, I think they will produce a pitch to get a result and SL will push to level it 1-1 going into the 3rd and final test, which may also provide Aus with an opportunity to grab the win and series..

Ponting flown home for the birth of his 2nd child.. while not everyone is a fan of Ponting, I still think he has a lot to offer Australian cricket as a batter.. but in comes Shaun Marsh to show his hand, a pretty decent replacement. He will want to prove a point.

Im gonna have another closer look tomorrow night into everything and work options available...

SL - $3.30
Draw - $2.30
Aus - $3

Final summary of my initial thoughts, surprised draw is as much as it is considering when i checked the other day their was rain each day and night, perhaps that has changed ? Would expect draw to be tighter.. if rain can hold out we should see a result.. so perhaps high stakes on both Aus and SL to win.. not sure yet.......

[Goodsy]

Ive spread my money... it still looks like their is plenty of rain around each day so draw is likely in this Test. The only test played on this ground ended in a draw last year also.

Being Aussie... I have put $20 @$3 on Australia to win.. might be a silly bet with all the rain around, plus SL losing twice and Aus winning twice in a row ? hmmmmmm..
Ive got $10 @$2.30 on the draw.. to grab my money back.. and just in case;
A small $5 @$3.30 on SL to win to limit losses.

So if Australia win I will profit $35.. if its a draw I will only lose $2... if SL win I will lose about $12..

I have also put some money on Aus High Bat... Sportingbet are having some specials for it... check it out if you get a chance, really worth it.. so I did:

$10 @$5 on Michael Clarke - showed signs of returning to test form with 60odd
$10 @$5.50 on Mike Hussey - keeps on scoring runs.. would think he will lift with Ponting out as one of the senior players.

So if i can ge the high bat that will make for a profitable Test..

Now let the games begin..

[pominoz]

Good luck Goodsy. That Sportingbet special looks pretty cool. I think you have a good chance of one of your batsmen getting up.

I'll take a look at things tomorrow and either jump in at the last second or play the wait and see game again.

Here's an interesting snippet from cricinfo: "After the pitch in Galle was reported to the ICC by the match referee, a more equitable surface is expected in Kandy. The grass will be shaved off, but more moisture is likely, meaning no clouds of dust on the first day, while the assistance for the spinners may not arrive until later in the game."

[pominoz]

With SL 24/3 I put $10 on Australia at 1.90. SL are now 80/5 and the Aussies are now 1.61 to win.

[pominoz]

From cricinfo:

This is a worse start for Sri Lanka than even Galle, they went in to lunch on the second day at 54 for 3 in the first Test, they have lost two more in Pallekele, but this pitch has played much better than that one, and they have only themselves to blame

Australia have been at Sri Lanka all morning, and they have run through half the side, Ryan Harris and Trent Copeland leading the way. Sri Lanka could have been six down if Watson had taken a simple chance at first slip.

[Goodsy]

Nic work pominoz.. the way its started that could be a good in-game bet.

I noticed the odds are pretty decent for a draw @4.25 last I checked... worht a watchful eye on the weather. Seems to be holding at the moment which is good.

Hussey picks up the key wicket of Kumar Sangakarra.. now 6/133.. hope to wrap it up for under 180. SL dont have much of a tail, though Matthews could prove a thorn if we dont get him out, he can smash it ... oh, as i type this Lyon picks up another wicket.. maybe under 160-150 now.. though Matthews can smash the ball so we need to keep him off strike or get his wicket asap.. looking good... SL dont have much of a tail..

[pominoz]

SL all out for 174 and Australia 46/0 going at 4.75 runs and over. I'll take that

Still early days but in-play odds for Australia are down to 1.28 already!

[Goodsy]

Yeah off to a good start to the innings with Watto and Hughes... just hope Clarke or Hussey top score....

[pominoz]

Aus now 135/3. Is the high bat for the first innings only or for both innings combined? Clarke was out cheaply but M. Hussey is still going and no one has more than 36 yet.

[Goodsy]

Yeah to be honest the special was not 100% clear... atleast I didnt think so... on the banner for the promo it said 'match'... but when selecting the 'high bat' it only had '1st innings' so to be honest im not totally clear.. im hoping its only 1st innings cause im a real shout with Hussey on 76 just 11 behind Marsh.. even if Hussey gets 100 and if he is not high bat i will get paid out still... if Hussey top scores with 100 i get a 50% bonus... so either way as long as he gets 100 i should be right.. I think ??

To answer your question...No idea.... Just want Hussey to bat and bat and bat...

Looks like the days play is over with bad light and a lead of 90. So looks like our Aus win bet is looking pretty good at the moment.

Im looking for Aus to bat all day tomorrow and add another 300 or so and have the lead over 350...

Good to see the rain has really stayed away during play so far... clouds are hanging around, and they can for all I care.. just let the game play on....

[pominoz]

Check your bet history, perhaps some additional detail is there.

Hopefully it's the first innings...

Marsh 141
Hussey 142

How's that for close!

The rain has now set in

[Goodsy]

Got paid for Hussey top scoring in 1st innings.. though didn't include any bonus.. wonder if thats for the match ? Not sure...

In the meantime.. concerned about the weather.. Clarke with the right decision in declaring at start of Day 4.. problem is that we have only picked up the 1 wicket... SL 1/95 trail by 142.. would like to bowl SL out so we dont have to bat 2nd innings. If we do bat hopefully the openers do the job..

I was tempted to place an extra $5 the other day when the draw was paying over $6.. regret I didnt do it now. Nevermind.. Australia to win.

[pominoz]

Congrats on Hussey getting up. Perhaps the bonus will be credited a bit later.

Sri Lanka 174 & 223/2 (79.0 ov)
Australia 411/7d

I lost my nerve so have locked in a small loss.

Before I had $10 on Aus to win at 1.90. I have since wagered $10 on a draw at 1.72 odds.

Profit Before:

Aus win: $9.00
Draw: -$10.00
SL win: -$10.00

Profit Now:

Aus win: -$1.00
Draw: -$2.80
SL win: -$20.00

Current odds:

Aus win: 5.50
Draw: 1.16
SL win: 34.00