ENG v IND 4th Test

[Goodsy]

So it starts again on Thursday night.

Looks like Jimmy Anderson may miss the test, appears Tremlett is already ruled out and Trott I think is still out. So England could be down some big players. Though still have enough players in top form to get the W.

I just wonder being the last and a dead rubber test will England be off their game enough for India to take it.

So far odds are:

England $2.20
Draw $2.20
India $6.00

Im entertaining the thought of $5 on India. Will wait until tomorrow to see how thew weather and pitch is shaping up.

It is hard to against England at the moment, they are just running through India and in a complete purple patch.. logic says England, but sport is not always logical.

Thoughts guys ?

[pominoz]

He took a total of 6 wickets in the third test, so Anderson will be a noteable loss for England if he is absent, although the England camp seems to be upbeat about his chances of playing.

Tremlett missed the third test along with Trott, so if Anderson is available we will perhaps see the same squad from the previous test.

One concern for India is that they have been progressively worse in each test:
1st test - lost by 196 runs
2nd test - lost by 319 runs
3rd test - lost by an innings

I'd expect England to have at least one big 450+ innings, which will make an India victory difficult. Worringly for India is the fact that England hasn't had to rely on one batsman to do the damage. Below are the English centuries so far this series.

1st test - first innings - Pietersen - 202 not out
1st test - second innings - Prior - 103 not out
2nd test - second innings - Bell - 159
3rd test - first innings - Cook - 294
3rd test - first innings - Morgan - 104

Both sides have good batting records at the Oval, so a draw looms large, especially if the weather plays a part.

Do you know if Sehwag will play? It's hard to win a test match when an opening batsman contributes 0 and 0 in his two innings. If they did exclude him, would they play Mukund instead? He contributed 0 and 3 in his two innings in the second test. Makes you think that Sehwag's place is safe!

If Anderson is fit and the sun is out I'd be inclined to back England.
If Anderson misses out and some rain delays are forecast I'd be inclined to back the draw.

[Goodsy]

All the stats and form point to another England win.

Jimmy is declared fit for the game.

India have lost Praveen Kumar and is replaced by RP Singh. So its a blow to lose Praveen he has surprisingly been their best bowler. RP could be under done, but who knows.. could provide that something extra.

Odds for the draw have tightened with an England and an Indian win blowing out a little.

England - $2.65
Draw - $1.70
India - $8.50

Its the last test with the series already won and England now number 1. I just get the small feeling that perhaps India might finally stand up with England letting off a little having achieved what they wanted.

I would go $10 on England... but gonna go the smokey and place a small $5 on India for this one. England have made me a bit of money this series... hope India can make me some now.

I will probably rue this at the end of the days play. Eitherway I will come out on top of this series...

England won toss and will bat in overcast conditions.

[pominoz]

Good luck Goodsy. With India's odds as long as they are all they need is a decent start for those odds to shorten, so you have a good shot of getting a hedging opportunity.

Interestingly I've heard a lot of talk from Betfair friends about 'laying the draw', meaning they predict a result either way, but feel the draw odds are too short.

[Goodsy]

Funny you mention that pominoz.. When I placed the $5 on India I looked at Englands odds again... and thought if I place $5 on England I would still come slightly ahead if England win. Im glad I did I place $5 each way, England look on track to take this one out after being 3/457 after day 2. Though draw looking likely.

I jsut wanna see wickets tumble... and I dont care whos wickets...

[pominoz]

You've done well to back England. I think the weather could be your biggest enemy now. Looks like you should be good for the weekend, with some light rain forecast on Monday.

Hopefully England will declare earlier rather than later. They'll probably wait at least until Bell gets out or hits a double century. The Indian bowling attack is looking pretty toothless at the moment. It must be depressing for them to have England at 457 with two centurians in this series still to bat, and a third still batting.

Fingers crossed England won't be satisfied with a draw, because I think the result of this Test could be decided by when/if they choose to declare.

With the fifth Test still to be played I wouldn't want to be an Indian bowler at the moment

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Are you going to touch Australia's 4th ODI? I may see who wins the toss and perhaps bet in-play.

[Goodsy]

Will be interesting to see Englands intent in the 1st session.. will they just bat and bat and bat.. do they go for Bells double and declare... i would play it like a 20/20 and jsut smash what you can... hope to get upwards of 600 by end of 1st session then declare..

Then hope to bowl out India twice after enforcing follow on.. in an ideal plan that is. Will see how it pans out tonight as i flick from the leagu, soccer and cricket.. what a night ahead. Love it.

I think this 4th test is the last of the series..

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Not touching the ODI with Australia.. havent done so all series and glad as i have only picked 1/3 in this series. if i was to have a punt tonight, prolly lean towards Sri Lanka to level it up, but really flip the coin. Good luck if u bet in game.

[pominoz]

You're quite right, this is the last of the series. I had simply presumed 5 tests for some reason.

If I do bet on the ODI it will be in-play. Hard to predict the result before the match. Aussies are slightly up at the moment.

[Goodsy]

Good to see Bell get his 1st double ton.. would like to England just swing the bat in the last 30mins prior to lunch break..

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Australia well on top in the ODI.. SL 5/111 after 30 overs..
SL $5.00
Aus $1.16

Not very tempting for either.. its looking likely an Aus win.. still time with a deep SL batting line up, though u wouldnt think likely..

Righto its time to flick back to the Sunderland v Newcastle game..

[pominoz]

I actually took the 1.16 for Australia to win. SL have now been scuttled for 132, and Australia's odds are now 1.015.

[Goodsy]

2nd session washed out, but atleast India still finished day 3 at 5/103, need 15 wickets in 2 days and then I can basically get my $10 back from the 2 bets and a slight win... hold out weather.

[pominoz]

Both sides seem to be playing their part. Let's hope the weather can hold out for you. India really are a shambles.

[pominoz]

I feared a draw at one stage, but England came through for you in the end. You did well to back England after backing India.

[Goodsy]

Yeah I was getting a little concerned that England backed off a bit. Especially after not picking up a wicket, including that of overnight watchman Amit Mishra, in the 1st session.

Im glad I put the extra bet on England. Shame I didnt win as much if India won, but thought it might be worth a sneaky bet on the underdog for the dead rubber. Atleast got my money back and got $3 out of it. I will keep an eye on that tactic for the future, it certainloy worked well on this occasion...

I agree India is in a shambles at the moment. They are a mess.. will be interesting to see the fall out from the series to see if any player gets the dump.. ie Raina or Laxman. I would be more inclined to dump the older batsman... wonder what happened to Pujara, he showed promise a year or so ago. Anyway thats Indias problem.

Good series England...

[flogger]

I was looking forward for Jimmy Anderson on this one. He is the difference make here.

This was too close to call, I didn't place any bet.