Euro 2024 betting

[admin]

UEFA Euro 2024 commences tomorrow and will run until the 14th of July. The host nation is Germany.

England is the current favourite, but our current recommendation is to lay them with Betfair. We were able to lay England at 4.90 and their current lay odds are 5.10.

As the English football pundit Jason Cundy put it, England are gold at the front, platinum in the middle and tin at the back. A sound defence is highly correlated with tournament success and on paper that's where England's biggest issues lie. While their squad is made up of highly capable players, a number of defenders will be playing out of position. The jury is also still out on the quality of their manager Gareth Southgate.

[Whisky33]

The path to the final has opened up for England now as I see it, if Southgate can swallow his pride and actually play the fantastic young talent he has at his disposal then there's a chance England win the whole thing.

[blackswan]

With Southgate at the helm and the incredible squad at his disposal, the England team looks like a Formula 1 car when Richard Hammond was at the wheel in that Top Gear episode.

You're right, England will be pinching themselves with the way the Round of 16 draw has fallen for them. Of the top five ranked teams with bookmakers, England are in one half of the bracket, with Spain, Germany, France and Portugal all in the other. It might be one of those tournaments where the best game is in the semi-final.

If the England squad can play even close to the sum of its parts, then they should make the final.

[pominoz]

My picks for the Round of 16:

Switzerland vs. Italy --> DRAW
Germany vs. Denmark --> UNDER 2.5
England vs. Slovakia --> UNDER 2.5
Spain vs. Georgia --> SPAIN & OVER 2.5
Austria vs. Turkey --> AUSTRIA

[pominoz]

I was 3 from 5 in the round of 16 and still feel filthy that Austria didn't win given their 3+ xG for that game.

For the quarters my picks are:

France v Portugal --> UNDER 2.5 (1.65 odds)
England v Switzerland --> UNDER 2.5 (1.56 odds)

[pominoz]

I went 2 from 2 in the quarters and have placed a similar bet on France's semi-finals clash.

Spain v France --> UNDER 2.5 (1.53 odds)

[pominoz]

My pick for the Spain v England final is for both teams to score (2.05 odds). Hopefully we'll get a good final!

[blackswan]

For anyone who's interested, I have found a link to the expected goals for Euro 2024:

https://xgscore.io/xg-statistics/euro/2024

England has been second best for xG in a number of their games, but they were worth their winning margin against the Netherlands.

England has the best xGC at 5.4, compared to 6.5 for Spain, however Spain has an xG of 11.2 over their six games, compared to just 6.1 for England.

Another thing that stands out is Spain has gone 6-0-0 in the tournament thus far, while England has gone 3-3-0 in regulation time.

In terms of actual goals, Spain has scored 13 and conceded 3, while England has scored 7 and conceded 4.

It feels like justice served if Spain wins the tournament, but I'm not prepared to rule out England. They finally lifted in performance against the Netherlands and their squad is incredibly good, particularly their bench. With Pickford in goal, they may also have the upper hand if it comes to penalties. I'm toying with the idea of a bet on Spain to win the trophy at 1.72, with a smaller hedge bet on England to win on penalties at 9.00.