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Brazil, Copa do Nordeste - Group E
Bahia VS Globo FC
finished with 1-0
Bahia VS Globo FC
finished with 1-0
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nice statisticsComment
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Conference National: Kidderminster Harriers- Eastleigh
Hosts are suffering financially, players and staff have had salary payments delayed several times this season and all refused to speak to the media recently as a protest. They have now been paid up to date and a wealthy husband and wife who support the club have agreed to bankroll salaries until the end of the season, which at least provides employees with a little stability, but this is a club which is going to have to go backwards , before it can progress. Costs are being cut in every area possible and manager Gary Whild, or whomever is in charge next season, will be operating with a greatly reduced budget probably less than a third of what Eastleigh had last season in the Conference South, the level below National. As you can imagine, the mood at the club is a little subdued and this has manifested itself with their on the pitch performances. Hanging around the playoff fringes (as usual) just before Christmas, Kiddy are 2-3-6 since Boxing Day and the goals have dried up, failing to score in 5 of six (0-3-3) and managing just two goals in nine outings.
The visitors are very well bank rolled by Stewart Donald who had a five year plan to get Eastleigh and the ground up to league standard and many millions later, they would be a year + ahead of schedule were it to be achieved this season.We picked up on what was going on with the Spitfires very early and notes from the last couple of years can be read in the preview of one of their early season games at the foot of this email. I would suggest that you (at least) read the last 2-3 paragraphs of that to get some background information. This could well be the second team we have followed from the sitxth tier into the FL, Fleetwood Town were the first and they are now pushing for a League 1 promotion spot and the Spitfires could do something similar. When trying to pick up on these big potential improvers, I feel the key is looking for owners who provide at least equal funding for off the pitch activities, ground,pitch, training facilities etc, long term projects, then at least you know they are not just looking for a quick fix, an instant return and that they are probably in it for the long haul.
The visitors have been hanging around just outside the top 5 ( only one auto and four playoff spots) for most of the campaign, but fell behind due to a number of postponed fixtures, however, they have run into some real form, winning their last three scoring seven goals , beating 4th placed Macclesfield Town 4-0 infront of the television cameras and winning 2-1 at leaders Bristol Rovers, who were previously 13-4-1 at home, last weekend. That leaves then 6th, outside the post season spots by 5 points and only 13 adrift of Roevrs in first and with 2-3 games in hand over all the clubs above them in the table. They have momentum and the winning mentality from taking the South title last season and there is no knowing how far they could go now with 11 matches still to play. I would suggest that a top 5 spot is very possible/likely (7.0 for promotion currently looks tempting) and we can keep an eye on them on and off over the final two months of the season. They have five forward players , James Constable, Jack Midson, Craig McAllister (the trio are inter changeable up front), Jai Reason and Ben Strevens who are closing in on 50 goals between them and with huge Football League experience, Reason has just earned the Conference POTM award for February. These are options/alternatives other teams do not have and the possibility to continually freshen things up, will be key when others clubs/players are running on empty. 1.25 units Eastleigh level ball 2.15 asian line/Sportmarket Pro ( Pinnacle). there is up to 2.375 for the same market (draw no bet) with european style bookmakers and a general 2.90 - 3.25 for the straight away win, which also appeals. The standard asian quote is +0.25 1.80 which is ok too, but odds are below what I ever personally play, but that is just my own preference, you might see things differently.
source: http://www.clubgowi.comComment
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My picks for the champions league:
Leverkusen to qualify for next round @1,6
Arsenal to beat Monaco @ 2,25Comment
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Newcastle United- Arsenal
Having watched the defensive car crash which was the Everton backline last night, it is hard to believe that United failed to score against them last Sunday and they are clearly a team very low on confidence and the Magpies have now lost their last seven starts, by an aggregate 22-2 goal difference against teams who finished top 7 last season, including a 4-1 defeat at the Emirates against the Gunners. Arsenal won 2-0 at Monaco in midweek which was a goal shy of the three needed to advance, but they did little wrong, dominated the game and as I said the following morning, must still be wondering how they went out to a vastly inferior team. I suspect that will further motivate them for the rest of this season, they can still finish second in the EPL, win the FA Cup and no English team went further in Europe. They have played as well as anyone over the last three months, scoring two or more goals in 18 of 21 starts and in 10 of 12 on the road and they should again have too much firepower for the hosts. 1.5 units Arsenal -1 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.
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League 1: Oldham Athletic- Rochdale
This is a local derby and will be keenly fought, neither has given up on a top six finish and Dale will actually move into 6th with all three points, the task is much harder for the hosts who have had a lot of off and on the pitch issues to deal with, which we outlined in a recent preview, which is reproduced at the foot of this email. They lost that 3-1 and they have lost their last three starts at Boundary Park (the coldest ground in England.....believe me !) conceding ten goals in the process. However, I have just watched extended highlights of their 1-0 win at lowly Crewe Alexandra at the weekend and they were much improved there, but we saw something similar (at Port Vale....see below) inbetween the first two of those heavy defeats and it is perhaps a formline not to be trusted. Having said that, I really liked the way the whole squad celebrated the goal with the interim management team and the spirit appears healthy within the Latics.
However, I have spotted a few things, firstly that the host's home games have produced a League 1 high 34 goals before the break ( 1.89 average) and 21 after it, next highest in the division is 28. This is mirrored by Dale who have conceded 62% of away goal in the first half, with matches averaging 1.67 on the road before the break, which is also a L1 high number. Even factoring in that this is a derby game, that makes the "over" 1 goal FH quote of 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket look very appealing and if you can find it, or close, I would suggest 1.5 units. An alternative would be over 1.5 goals and there is quite a bit of 2.90-3.10 around for that.
We have spoken a couple of times about Rochdale's second half form on the road, most recently ahead of their trip to Notts County last midweek ....These two have been in freefall, but maybe now they are facing each other, they might revert to type. County have a goal difference of +3 at home before the break , a woeful -10 in the second half, Dale are -2 on the road in the opening 45 mins, +10 after the break. They trailed 1-0 there, went in 1-1 at the break and won 2-1, something similar could well be on the cards this evening. If Dale are level at half time, we could take 1.25 units at the first asian line quoted above 2.0, we could up that to 1.5 units if they were trailing (losing), I do not want to bet if they are already leading and as usual, we have to be playing 11 v 11 (no red cards).
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Exhibition games today
My picks:
Germany - Australia over 3.5 @ 2.1
Ghana to beat Namibia @ 1.8
Denmark to beat USA @ 2.05Comment
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International Friendly: France-Denmark
France started strongly against Brazil in midweek, but got worse the longer the game went on, with a poor defensive performance and a lot of errors from the backline, setting the tempo for the last hour of the game. They get the chance to immediately get back to winning ways and are probably grateful for that and perhaps for the chage of envioroment, with the match being played away from Paris and in St Etienne. They will not have to face quite the same offensive threat today, but I suspect the Danes will have seen enough to feel that there is at least a goal in this for them and possibly more, they arrive on the back of a 3-2 defeat of the USA in midweek and were angered by the facilities, or rather lack of them offered by the French FA and the hosts might meet a more motivated opponent that the one which actually boarded the plane in Aarhus. They are still without Daniel Agger in central defence and they are without a clean sheet in the eight starts he has missed over the last two years, conceding two or more in four and in friendly games they have given up an average of 2.0 per game in his absence and all those starts were versus teams with less offensive threat that the French. The hosts will probably rotate quite a bit and there will surely be some very hungry replacements who will see this as a good time and perfect opportunity to impress. Alexandre Lacazette and Olivier Giroud with 36 league goals between them this season will be especially keen to show that they are more than back ups and this is a match which promises entertainment and a few goals. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
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Japan JLeague
Kashima Antlers- Sagan Tosu
These two met on the final day of last season, which was less than four months ago, ahead of which I wrote ......
Reysol can steal 4th by bettering Sagan's result, or if both win, by scoring one more goal. These scenarios are the real interest in this round of games.
We have spoken a lot about how Sagan approach games ... Ahead of their home game with Urawa last week I wrote ......Expect this to be cagey through the early exchanges.Sagan have drawn 20 of 32 first halves, but only two of those have ended all square (10 wins and 8 defeats).That was level at the break and did actually end 1-1, but Sagan were reduced to ten men and fell behind and to score a late equaliser with ten men, against a team who would have kept the title destiny in their own hands with the win, was a terrific result and all credit has to go to them for plugging away for 95 minutes . Antlers did us a big favour last weekend with that win at Cerezo, but this looks set to be far tougher, despite Sagan being without two suspended players, I feel that the visitors will look to keep this tight as long as possible, definitely until half time, which is their modus operandi in any case and hope that the results outlined above come to pass and that Antlers motivation will evaporate. I quite like Sagan +0.5 ball as a draw could be enough, but would prefer taking big odds for the away win "in play", if Gamba are ahead and doubly so if Reysol also lead. They are without a couple of players, but to my miind, that is more than factored into the odds.
That played out well for us with Sagan winning 1-0, it was not enough for them to claim 4th spot and one of the Champions League places, as Reysol won by the desired two goals, but they did finish level on points with both them and third placed Antlers and perhaps missing out on the international fixtures is a blessing in disguise. Playing in the international club game has certainly not done Kashima any favours so far, they have lost all three Champions League fixtures, conceding eight goals in the process and have just a single point from three J-League starts, shiping three goals at Shimizu who narrowly missed relegation ( by one point) last season and who have not scored in their other two fixtures this time round and also losing at home to a newly promoted team. They had a very young team last season and in their last outing, six were aged 22 or younger and this is the always difficult big second season for many and they are no longer the surprise package they were at the start of the last campaign, key striker Davi who scored and assisted for 18 goals in 2014 has a long term injury and in his absence, Antlers have lost 10 of 18 starts.
Sagan have started well, posting two wins including one over Gamba Osaka, where they went toe to toe early with the treble winners, however, once they took the lead, arguably a little against the run of play they reverted more to type and according to Gamba, "parked the bus", but this is a team with a little something about them and against whom it is absolutely vital to score first. They won 10 times on the road last season and are ideally suited to playing on the break and with Antlers leaking goals, it is easy to see the visitors scoring and one, given their defensive prowess, might well again be enough.
1.5 units Sagan Tosu +0.25 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
source: http://www.clubgowi.comComment
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England League 2 : Bury- Morecambe
We spoke about Morecambe last month where I touched upon how desperate they were to add to their squad, but funds were too tight to do so at one of the poorest supported teams in the Football League. They have overachieved this season and last for that matter in terms of resources and are secure in midtable with the magic (safe number) of 51 points. They have not won in five, losing heavily to the only top seven team they have faced in that sequence and they have only averaged a shade over 1 point per game, over their last 20 fixtures. Last year it was a similar story, 35 points from the first half of the campaign, just 19 from the second 23 games, they have to put too big a strain on too few players and it usually comes back to haunt them.
Bury are at the other end of the spectrum nowadays and are well funded, they were amongst the pre season favourites and started well and were top three at the end of October. They lost their way for a time, collecting only 8 points from a possible 27 and were ten adrift of an automatic spot in mid January, but they have gone 10-2-2 since and chipped away at that gap and now sit four points behind Wycombe Wanderers with a game in hand and a lot of momentum. They have won their last four ( three on the road) and appear very focused and confident right now. Visiting central defender Mark Hughes looks set to miss out after leaving the pitch with an injury on Friday, he is the type who would only do so if he was really in trouble and would be sorely missed, he has sat out just eight league and FA cup ties in the last two seasons, through which Morecambe are 1-1-6 and have failed to score in six, those stats are even worse actually, as seven of those fixtures came in the first half of the respective campaigns, when Morecambe were at their best.
1.5 units Bury -1 ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.
source: http://www.clubgowi.comComment
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The 28 Spieltag of the Bundesliga will start today.
My pick:
Hannover 96 to beat Hertha BSC @ 2.05Comment
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Champions league matches 14th and 15th april.
My pick:
Atletico to beat Real @ 2.8
and a small one on:
Porto to beat Bayern Munich @ 4.7
I think the odds is too high. Bayern is weakened. I do see a chance for Porto.Comment
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The 29 Spieltag of the Bundesliga will start today.
One of my picks:
Borussia to beat Hoffenheim @ 1.85Comment
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Nagoya Grampus-Shimizu S-Pulse
I spoke about the offensive potential of Nagoya on opening day ......"Gamba Osaka were easily the best J-League team last season and completed the domestic treble despite being in the relegation zone after 14 rounds. Knowing that, it will not surprise you to know that they, with 39 points, were the best team over the second half of the campaign , followed by Kashiwa Reysol with 36 and Kashima Antlers with 33, they were the only three teams to break the 30 point barrier, although special mention goes to Nagoya Grampus with 29, which was far and away the best of the teams who finished in the bottom half of the table and I see them as a big potential improver.
Akira Nishino is in his second year in charge there and his ideas were clearly getting across to the players and having an influence in the second half of last season, he was wildly successful at Gamba Osaka for a decade, winning numerous trophies and two coach of the year awards. He took a while to start winning things at Gamba and Nagoya are clearly prepared to give him time and to back his judgement, the signings of Kengo Kawamata from Albirex Niigata and Leandro Domingues from Kashiwa Reysol last summer worked out well, with Kensuke Nagai thriving alongside them with 9 goals and three assists over the last 17 games and the club averaging almost two goals per game. They have now added veteran Slovenian striker Milivoje Novakovic from Shimizu S-Pulse, who's record of scoring 16 goals and contributing 4 assists in 38 league and cup appearances for a team battling relegation was awesome, as was the fact he was available for every single game and only missed 23 minutes of league action, at pushing 35 years of age. Really see a big season for them if they can all gel and hit the ground running. They open against one the promoted teams and you are never quite sure what you will get with them, but I would suggest that given up the bigger handicap on Nagoya, who were champions in 2010 and runners up in 2011, might be the way to go."
They scored three that day and have actually averaged 2.0 per game across eight competitive matches, scoring three in half of them. SSP have not kept a clean sheet in six and have conceded at least twice in five of those, they did manage to score twice against Gamba Osaka last week, but to be honest, they owed more to the opposition goalkeeper who made two howlers, than any real offensive prowess in that game. The second goal was reported as thus ....."Then, in the 63rd minute Higashiguchi took a cross comfortably and all seemed well. As the defence cleared out and the attacking team returned to their positions the Gamba keeper dropped the ball to the floor, ready to punt it out. He hadn't checked behind though. where Genki Omae was lurking. The diminutive S-Pulse forward pounced on the free ball and tucked it into the net gratefully. 2-2, leaving Higashiguchi red-faced ! " That was not the first error(s) that Higashiguchi has made recently btw and his form has put me off backing Gamba this round.
Anyway , I have not seen an awful lot of them this season, but SSP feel they have played a little better than recent results suggest, however, it seems hard to see how they are going to keep Nagoya out for long and this could easily and quickly develop into a shootout, which is what this "local" game ( SSP are calling this their derby fixture again this season, with the continued absence of Jubilo Iwata from the top flight) usually develops into, with the last seven h2h meetings going "over" at an average of 4.43 goals per game, the visitors have scored at least twice in 6 of 10 visits. Nagoya have score four first half goals in their last two home starts and SSP have conceded at least twice in the second half in their last three away games, so the goals will surely come sooner or later for Grampus.
1.25 Nagoya Grampus -0.75 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.25 units "over" 3 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket Pro......alternative is the more standard 2.75 goal line at circa 1.90.
source: http://www.clubgowi.comComment
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Irish Premier League Cork City - Longford
I was close to taking Cork City giving up the big handicap against Longford Town who might not be favoured by the quick turnaround, they have tired quite badly in their last two starts after the break and have lost all three road games (league and cup) against the better (top 4) teams, the last two by two goals and the newly promoted club are playing their 5th match of April today and still coming to terms with this level of competition. The hosts were runner up to Dundalk last season , the pair clear of the pack and they are already 1 and 2 again, City host the leaders this coming Friday and will want maximum points ahead of that game, they are 3-0-0 at home this season with a 10-0 goal difference and are 6-0 in those games through the first half, so, strong starters against a team who might tire after the break . The only problem was that the visitors have refused to give out any team news and the hosts have a couple of important players who picked up knocks on Friday and who will be subject to last minute decisions. Therefore, I cannot put this up as a red type selection (official bet), but if you really must have an interest, I would suggest 1.25 units Cork City -1.25 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket.
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