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[paul8209]

Copa America: Chile- Peru


With Brazil, who have always been a bogey team for Chile out of the competition and Argentina facing a rematch with a Paraguayan side they struggled with at the group stage tomorrow, things are starting to look hugely promising for the hosts, but with that comes added pressure, the level of expectation is through the roof and now, failure to reach the final will be seen as a bit of a disaster and if Peru can hang on in there early, they can use that to their advantage. Peru have looked very well organised at these championships and were comfortable quarter final winners over Bolivia, ahead of which I wrote ......"Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards in Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay that year and I feel they will have learned from that.
"
They were 2-0 up inside the first quarter of the game, had a whopping 27 attempts on goal (hitting the woodwork twice) and Paolo Guerrero scored a hat trick, before Bolivia made the scoreline respectable with a late consolation goal, it was an impressive victory and this is a team on the up and improving game upon game. Chilean centre back Gonzalo Jara is suspended after putting his finger where it should not be put (!) and the hosts conceded two goals at home to the US in the only start he has missed in 2015. Mexico are the only team who have really taken the game to Chile in this competition and they scored three without the cream of their offensive talent and if Peru are prepared to have a go, I can definitely see a goal or maybe two for them and I am very keen on the "away" team with the handicap start. Peru use both flanks well and could create havoc in the box, with a big aerial advantage over Chile and I have to take .............. Peru +1 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.


Gary Medel and David Pizzaro ended the Bolivia game in the middle of the backline for Chile, they are each 1.71m tall, Guerrero and Claudio Pizzaro are both 1.84m + and this could be a real route to goal for Peru, who are a very tempting 6.5-7.0 general quote to score twice ("over" 1.5 goals) , how about something small on that....

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[paul8209]

Copa America: Paraguay - Peru


These 3rd and 4th place playoff games almost always produce goals, it is easy to see why, there is usually one side a little more motivated than the other and both can easily let intensity slip for what seems largely a meaningless fixture at the end of a long competition, coming after a gruelling domestic campaign for many. I do suspect that both would have taken 3rd or 4th spot if you had offered it to them pre tournament , so maybe we will see both going for it this evening, but each suffered a very disappointing semi final result, albeit for different reasons and they could let things slide if falling behind.

However, both teams have players, Lucas Barrios of Paraguay and Peru's Paolo Guerrero who have a good chance to become the competition top scorer, that would be an honour both individually and for the nation and we can expect that to motivate both offensively. Paraguay are hard hit by injury and could be missing four players who started the semi final against Argentina in Roque Santa Cruz, Derlis Gonzalez, Bruno Valdez and Nelson Valdez, which would weaken them up top and especially on the right flank. Peru will be without suspended Carlos Zambrano from the backline and did have to play 60 minutes down to ten men after his sending off against the hosts, but that is counter balanced by having an extra day's rest and recovery time. Peru have impressed me more, I think they have a little more about them, look stronger defensively and at the ned of the day, Paraguay have only beaten Jamaica inside 90 minutes at the Copa and no team other team in nine starts and I have to suggest .......

Peru -0.25 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

MLS: Columbus Crew- New York Red Bulls


These two met here in Columbus earlier in the season with Red Bulls winning 2-1, the last three h2h meetings have all gone "over" with an average of 4.0 goals per game. I can definitely see that trend continuing today, with Crew's last eight home starts seeing seven go "over" with both teams also scoring in seven. Red Bulls have recorded back to back New York derby wins in the last week scoring seven goals in the process, but conceding in each, they might struggle to get up a little for a third "big" game inside seven days , especially defensively ,with a whole host of players missing due to injury and international call ups, including, central defender Karl Ouimette and full backs Roy Miller, Kemar Lawrence and Chris Duvall, which means no recognised experienced left back . Duvall has played all but one game this season on the right hand side of the backline and they conceded twice there and were not so beat up across the defensive line in that match. Crew will doubtless be out for revenge having lost already at home to Red Bulls and this looks a good chance to level the score, I am a little torn between goals and the home win, but have opted for ......

"over" 3 goals 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket Pro.......alternative would be the more commonly quoted 2.75 goal line.

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[paul8209]

Women's World Cup Final: US- Japan


We have a repeat of the 2011 final and the extremely well conditioned and prepared Japanese team have proved that win was no fluke and that they are perhaps the best team in the world and few will doubt that if they win this evening. In that previous final they twice came from behind to tie the US, including once in extra time and showed incredible mental strength to do so, I do not think that any other team in world football , would have been able to do so under similar circumstances. My preview of their quarter final win over Australia is reproduced below, that includes my pre tournament notes about how well prepared the Japanese were and how seriously they have taken their role as world champions and they have loved the four years since and I feel that once again they have been seriously underestimated by the oddsmakers and that there is no huge gulf between the two. Of course, this is not a coinflip as the US will have massive support in Vancouver, but Japan have already played here three times and will feel very much at home in stadium and city.They were disappointing against England in the semis, but I think that was the match in which all the pressure was on them, now it is very much on the US, they are going to have to make the running and they will be very vulnerable to the speed and technical ability of the Japanese. I think we might well see extra time again and I am happy to take .....

Japan +0.5 at 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

Brazil: Serie A: Corinthians- Atletico Paranaense


Atletico Paranaense are losing their way after a solid start to their season and have conceded nine goals in their last five outings ( one win), two or more in four, including at home to goal shy local rivals Coritiba. They now face a second very tough road trip inside five days, after losing 2-0 at Cruzeiro last weekend and thoughts could quickly tun to a home game with Fluminense in three days time should they fall behind this evening.

Corinthians have scored twice in each of their last three home games (all wins) and despite being held scoreless at Goias last time out, they were hugely impressive, with great movement up front and some really inventive build up play especially in and around the box, they also looked good aerially.

The home coach is very pleased with the progress his team have made and has spoken of them as potential champions this week, they would go top 4 with all three points this evening and can collect those and possibly cover the handicap with ease if things fall for them in front of goal this evening.

Visitors arrive without suspended Walter who has been playing the lone striker role all season and that is a major loss.


Corinthians -1 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

MLS: New York City- Toronto FC


This was meant to be the debut for Frank Lampard, but a minor knock has delayed that for another 7 days +, however, the official signing of Andrea Pirlo was announced this week and the prospect of both being available soon is a major boost both for the club and MLS football in general and neither are the type to ever give less that 100%. The starting eleven today will be fighting hard to keep their places and tickets will already have been sold with the crowd expecting to see the former EPL star and this will still be a bit of an occasion.

These two teams met three weeks ago in Ontario with NYC winning 2-0 , they were tactically very solid there, pressed incredibly well and David Villa who remains a top class striker took his two chances and to be honest, at 3-4 years younger than the other two "superstars" , he should still be playing at a higher level, he could score in MLS almost in his sleep ! Anyway, I liked that performance, defensively they allowed TFC little and dominated the match early and through the key middle part of the second half and on the road. The defence has also been tightened up with the signings of a pair of Spanish full backs in the incredibly experienced Andoni Iraloa and Angelino this week . With Toronto missing a lot of players today, I expect a follow up win.

The visitors arrrive without Jozy Altidore, Michael Bradley ,Ashtone Morgan, Jonathan Osorio and Quillan Roberts, all of whom are on international duty. This leaves them short through the central spine and with their remaining key player Sebatian Giovinco, left to carry most of the offensive load on his own, which is a big ask and will make him easier to mark.

New York City -0.5 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

Concacaf Gold Cup USA vs Panama

I was quite keen on Panama coming into this tournament and ahead of their opener with Haiti wrote .............

"This will be the 13th Gold Cup, the US and Mexico have won 11 of the previous 12 between them and contested five finals including three of the last four and that is what the organisers are hoping for again this year, hence the very favourable draw for that to come about. However, Panama did make the final in 2013 , had an earlier runner up place to their name and made the semis in 2011 and quite rightly see themselves as a major contender.Los Canaleros played two matches in build up with Ecuador and appear well prepared for this event, the same cannot be said for the Haitians who have had just a single game ( 2-2 draw with China) in the last eight months and are going to "bond" as they go along, which was kind of their game plan in 2013 when they lost their opener to Honduras 2-0. They do have a little talent in the team, notably Jeff Louis of Standard Liege, who long term readers might recall I was very keen on whilst he was at Nancy, but they look to match up poorly to me against the very athletic and experienced Panama squad. Ten of their players have 50 + caps and they have three very prolific frontmen in Gabriel Torres, Luis Tejada and especially Blas Perez who is going to be very much at home here with the FC Dallas striker playing in his home stadium tonight. He is extremely strong and good in the air and has a bit of a reputation for being physical and if Panama can isolate him against one or two of the smaller defenders and there are several, that could produce big dividends."

Panama did largely dominate that game and then again "blew" a lead against the Hondurans and have led for 90 minutes in total across the two matches. They have not seen out the final 20 minutes that well in either game, but I feel that will be less of a concern this evening, the US have scored all their three goals in the first hour or so and will not be overly pressing late in this game with so little at stake for them and with another three matches to play. Head coach Jurgen Klinsmann rotated heavily, especially at the back between the first two games and will surely do so again this evening. Panama have a decent record against the US in Gold Cup competition, they have lost three of the six meetings , but all by a single goal and they have a win and two draws in the other three and getting odds against and half our money back with a one goal defeat about a team with all the motivation looks the way to go, but not a day I want to get overly involved in, so ............

Panama +0.75 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

MLS: LA Galaxy- San Jose Earthquakes


This is the third California Clásico inside 20 days, with honours shared so far, San Jose took the first 3-1 and I previewd that at the end of last month (notes reproduced below), a few days later, Galaxy got a little revenge with a 1-0 road win in the US Open Cup, but that competition is never a priority for LA and if it was/is revenge they are looking for, it is this evening they will have in mind.

Since that win three weeks ago, Eathquakes have failed to score in three MLS starts and have looked toothless in the absence of key striker Chris Wondolowski something we touched upon ahead of the second of those games........

They put huge effort into that game and got a famous win, top scorer Chris Wondolowski got the opener there and is a massive loss tonight having since joined the national team. Also called up for Gold Cup duty is right sided midfielder Cordell Cato, a situation which is compounded as the other midfielder on that flank, Sanna Nyassi,is suspended. These are very difficuly absences to overcome especially against a team with so much offensive firepower and to have to do so following back to back games inside four days against a deadly rival and the biggest name in MLS football is too much.

They got Nyassi back last week for a home game with an even more beat up Houston Dynamo, who were missing four key players and Quakes were hugely disappointing in a 2-0 defeat. They played a friendly match with Mexican side America in midweek and had the idea of the squad playing 45 minutes each, but it back fired somewhat as they picked up an injury early and then Nyassi got sent off just before half time and they suddenly got a bit of a tough work out, spending a lot of time without the ball and a man short throughout the second period.

Galaxy were on fire offensively with 22 goals in six league and cup games, before a 1-0 defeat in the US Open in midweek away to Real Salt Lake, they were able to rest five players with today in mind and Steven Gerrard who played the second 45 minutes, is expected to see out 90 tonight in what is effectively his home debut and there is of course huge media interest in that and he and LAG will want the points to mark it. They received a further boost yesterday with the signing of Giovani dos Santos and he will join them after the Gold Cup, these are marquee signings and a clear indication of where the MLS is heading. Hosts have won 5 of 9 home games with Earthquakes, with all those wins coming by 2+ goals and if they are to get the points this evening, I feel it will be by a similarly convincing margin.

The home side are themselves hurt by international absences and a gruelling schedule, but meet a team with similar issues and without the rotation options, home advantage and big name introduction.

LA Galaxy -1.25 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

MLS: New England Revolution- New York City


Last week I previewed New York City's home game with Toronto FC....

"This was meant to be the debut for Frank Lampard, but a minor knock has delayed that for another 7 days +, however, the official signing of Andrea Pirlo was announced this week and the prospect of both being available soon is a major boost both for the club and MLS football in general and neither are the type to ever give less that 100%. The starting eleven today will be fighting hard to keep their places and tickets will already have been sold with the crowd expecting to see the former EPL star and this will still be a bit of an occasion.

These two teams met three weeks ago in Ontario with NYC winning 2-0 , they were tactically very solid there, pressed incredibly well and David Villa who remains a top class striker took his two chances and to be honest, at 3-4 years younger than the other two "superstars" , he should still be playing at a higher level, he could score in MLS almost in his sleep ! Anyway, I liked that performance, defensively they allowed TFC little and dominated the match early and through the key middle part of the second half and on the road. The defence has also been tightened up with the signings of a pair of Spanish full backs in the incredibly experienced Andoni Iraloa and Angelino this week ."

They scored four times, but could only draw (!) and really need to get that backline in shape and Iraloa will be much more in tune with things today after a full week with the rest of the squad and he will surely have be able to pass on some advice to his team mates. Despite those defensive issues, they have lost just once in seven and meet a Revolution side who have lost their way, have won just once in 12 and lost five in a row, conceding two or more in each of those, how are they going to keep David Villa out for 90 minutes ! Second top scorer Patrick Mullins will be hugely motivated returning to his former club and there surely has to be goals in this for NYCFC. Hosts are without Kevin Alston , Darrius Barnes and Jermaine Jones with injury, centre back Jose Goncalves is suspended and they are left with just four available defenders to face the best striker in MLS football.

New York City +0.25 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket .

I would also suggest NYCFC to score two or more goals ("over" 1.5) @ circa 2.90-3.0 general quote if you can find it.

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[paul8209]

Club Friendly: Boreham Wood- Brentford


This is the mighty Bees first pre season game in England, they are coming from a 12 day training camp in Portugal where they worked really hard in very hot, extremely humid conditions , similar to what they had in Florida last summer, which an already very fit team, something we have touched upon many times, really benefitted from through the season. They played one friendly there, beating Farense 3-0 using two different starting 11's in each half, Brentford have not lost anyone who was at the club last season, at least not yet, although there has been EPL interest in Jota, Gray, Button, Tarkowski, Odubajo and from elsewhere in Dallas and Diagouraga, one or more might be sold, but only if the Bees valuation is met and I can tell you it is £5m + for the first four named, the additions of Barbet, Bjelland, Kerschbaumer and McEachram amongst others have boosted an already strong squad, which you know I feel is only heading one way and finished 5th in the Championship last season. That is all I wish to say for now, plenty of Bees fans will be in the ground today for a first look at the new signings and to see if there is any hint of a change to the new coach's preferred 4-3-3 from a 4-2-3-1 they have had huge success with and for the players, it will feel like they are playing in air conditioning after the Algarve.

Brentford played pre season here in 2013 , winning 3-1, they are twice the team now and have said that most of the first team will be on show today, however, a lot of rotation during the game I guess, but huge competition for starting places and a new coach to impress, so I doubt that will matter overly.

I will, of course , speak about the new signings and backroom staff, plus any leaving players ahead of the new season.

Brentford -1 ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket

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[overtips]

Vardar vs APOEL – back Over 1.5 goals when the odd is @1.86 and keep the bet until the end of the match.
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Europe League:
Elfsborg vs Randers FC – back Over 1.5 goals when the odd is @1.86 and keep the bet until the end of the match.

If you want to find my tips search on google Scott Hoffman betting tips

[paul8209]

Mexico-Panama


Ahead of the quarter finals I wrote ......

"Like most big tournaments and in CONCACAF terms this is big, which is why Mexico rested players for the Copa, the cream usually rises to the top at the business end , the US made it through yesterday in style and I expect Mexico and Panama to join them this evening. The trio have been the three main players in the Gold Cup in recent years and whilst they have failed to overly impress this time round, all should make the last four. I am not sure that there is any value in the odds on offer for El Tri, but do feel there is a little about Panama. My notes on them ahead of their match with the US can be read below, that finished 1-1 , two day's later Trinidad drew 4-4 with Mexico to finish top of Group C. Two things about that, one it means that like Cuba yesterday, T&T come into this on 48 hours less recovery time and having had the similar tough travel schedule and secondly, I do not think that Mexico wanted to play Panama in the last eight knockout stage, having struggled with them previously and not matching up that well physically. Los Caneleros will certainly give T&T far more of a test in that department than they have had previously and this looks a good match up to my eyes for Panama, who will get defenders Machado and Henriquez back from suspension, whilst losing midfielder Anibal Godoy to another, but a plus situation overall. The extra two days to prepare are huge , especially given how the two teams play and I want to stick with Panama and take them to reach the semis for the third Gold Cup running."

Despite making hard work of things, both made it through and they are, along with the US the three top teams in the Gold Cup. I do believe that Mexico are a little fearful of Panama (as I wrote above) and the six most recent h2h meetings have all been extremely close, two draws and four wins by a single goal (two each). I see this similar to the US-Panama game in that Los Caneleros are one of the very few CONCACAF teams that do not go into match ups with the "big 2" with an inferiority complex and physically, they have an edge against the Mexicans, they won both meetings at the 2013 Gold Cup, each by a 2-1 scoreline, with all four goals coming early in each half, imposing themselves from the kickoff each time. The four goals that El Tri conceded to Trinidad and Tobago are a worry , they look good going forward, but their system and formation leaves them vulnerable at the other end of the pitch when they open up as we saw not just there, but in the Copa and it feels like this match has been priced solely on reputation as opposed to anything we have seen either in 2015 or recent meetings.

Panama +0.75 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

MLS: Real Salt Lake- Sporting KC


Big rivalry between these two and recent encounters have been "spicy" and are always very physical. To that end alone, I feel that SKC are at a disadvantage given that they have played Saturday-Tuesday- Friday over the last week and due to injury and international call ups, could barely rotate for the midweek US Open Cup game and 13 of the 14 who played against Houston in the last league game, also featured on Tuesday when they took almost an hour to get on top of the ten men of Houston, in what was an incredibly hard fought encounter. The way the match played out meant that head coach Peter Vermes felt unable to make two substitutions until injury time and this must be a team running on empty right now and I doubt a battle against a bitter rival just three days later and on the road is going to suit them. Having said that, there is nothing wrong with the form of Sporting and their only loss in 14 starts was here in Salt Lake just five weeks ago, but nine of those fixtures were at home and of the five on the road they are 1-3-1 and that sole victory aside, it is over a year since they won on the road without a goal from Zusi or Opara who are both absent this evening.

RSL are missing key players too, with Olave, Beckerman and Rimando unavailable, but they have had a free midweek to prepare solely for this and have only left Salt Lake once, for the short hop to play Colorado, in the last month and will clearly be the fresher of the two squads. They felt they played their best football of the season in the first half of the last meeting, when they really took the game to SKC and could have been 2-3 up at the break, we might well see a similarly flying start from them this evening and to be honest, I do not feel that the visitors should be favourites for this. Hosts are very strong at home and have lost just once in 26 home starts since early June last year, they pride themselves on the Rio Tinto Stadium being a fortress and with two road games up next and already six points adrift of a post season spot they see as theirs by right, this is a fixture they have to get something from.


Real Salt Lake level ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

Japan Jleague Vissel Kobe- Gamba Osaka


Cannot believe that Gamba blew yet another lead, they seem incapable of keeping a clean sheet right now, but as I said in midweek, offensively there is not a lot wrong with them and one day soon it will all click. However, they have now conceded in their last seven starts and it is not easy to see them keeping one against a Vissel Kobe side I am quite keen on and who did us a favour with a win at Vegalta Sendai last weekend, notes from which are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. However, they have been far happier on the road all season long and they have themselves conceded in seven straight home starts. This is a fixture which usually produces goals, the last ten h2h meetings in Kobe have averaged 3.7 goals, with both teams scoring in eight, Kobe scoring 2 or more goals in five and Gamba three or more in four.

After a failure to win in midweek, Gamba are 6-2-0 next time out, scoring at least two goals in each, with six games going "over", there is 2.10-2.25 general quote for Gamba to score "over" 1.5 goals. Home coach Nelsinho named an unchanged team last weekend and reaped the benefits after chopping and changing his line up, usually due to circumstances outside of his control, far to much in Stage 1, I expect him to stick with

"over" 2.5 goals 1.95 asian line/Sportmarket.

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[paul8209]

MLS Vancouver Whitecaps- San Jose Earthquakes

Last round San Jose were 2-0 up early, but were behind 40 minutes later and eventually lost 5-2, the two goals from Quincy Amarikwa in his second start offer hope that they can be competitive offesively this evening and they have Cato ( see above) back now and he played against Manchester United in a midweek friendly where Earthquakes were in the match for an hour ( played their starting 11 in the opening 45 mins only). They will be so much better when Wondolowski returns to action next week, but are going to have to learn to win in his absence some time. This is a tough ask for them, they have lost five straight at Vancouver and the hosts are very motivated to collect the three points which will enable them to move up to second place in the Western Conference.

This is a match Whitecaps should win and they could run in a few goals, but the hosts are very short on the left flank, with left back Jordan Harvey ( cover Sam Adekugbe injured) and left winger Cristian Techera suspended, which does give SJE, who suddenly have a few options on that side ( Cato and Nyassi) an area to exploit. Hosts have conceded in 6 of 7 home starts and might easily do so again, even against Wondo less Earthquakes.

"over" 2.5 goals 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.

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