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[paul8209]

MLS: LA Galaxy- Colorado Rapids

Rapids have been the surprise package of the season and lead the Western Conference with an avergae of over 2 points per game and having conceded a MLS low 11 goals . They are on an eleven match unbeaten run and have conceded more than a single goal just once in sixteen 2016 starts in all competitions. They arrive here on the back of a 2-1 home win over Chicago Fire at the weekend, they have not left the altitude of Colorado for a month and should have some small advantages from that today, with Commerce City 1,574m above sea level. They have been ending games strongly with goals after the 85th minute in each of their last three starts.

Galaxy are suffering a dip in form and have not won in six (all comps) and have kept just one clean sheet in 11 starts, that was ok when they were scoring freely, but the goals have dried up and they have failed to score in their last two and are short of offensive options right now. Robbie Keane and Gyasi Zardes are on international duty and Giovani Dos Santos and Steven Gerrard are doubts, the quartet have 16 goals and nine assists between them (Galaxy have scored 27), definitely out is right back Robbie Rogers who has had ankle surgery, he has missed seven games ( no clean sheets) since last June. On top of everything else, they played in Toronto on Saturday, so a long journey there and back on a quick turnaround and they have been vulnerable, when Rapids have been coming on strong, conceding in three of their last four starts after the 77th minute. They also play the Clasico game with San Jose Earthquakes in front of a massive crowd on Saturday and will surely have that at the back of their mind. Rapids look to have all the advantages and have to be the selection with the handicap start.

Colorado Rapids +0.5 @ 2.04 at Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

Brazil Serie A: Chapecoense - Cruzeiro

Chapecoense were very disorganized last round and lost 5-1 away at Sport Recife . They acted quickly afterwards to appoint a new coach, but he has had no real time to work with his players, they will be starting their third game with a different coach inside 8 days and they have clocked up a lot of air miles in the last 10 days and they need a free midweek ( which they will get next week) just to regroup.

Cruzeiro have just posted back to back and impressive wins, beating Ponte Preta 4-0 on the road and coming from behind to defeat leaders Palmeiras at the weekend, both were wide open contests and whilst there was a LOT to like about Cruz offensively in both and I loved the way they kept going forward, instead of sitting on their lead(s), they were suspect at the back and could easily have conceded four instead of one across the two games. They will be without central defender Bruno Rodrigo and left winger Alisson ( lost 6/23 when he plays. 12/26 when he is sidelined) tonight.

Despite their "issues", Chapecoense are very focused on the points tonight, they travel to Santos at the weekend and know that failure to win this evening is likely to leave them very close to the drop zone come Sunday night. They have reduced ticket prices and are expecting a big crowd and have a new coach to impress. Both team have been involved in several shoot outs recently and we might well see another.

over 2.25 goals @ 2.13 at Sportmarket

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[scorpion]

It's not so interesting when EURO 16 is still on!

[scorpion]

Please, be good =) your predictions and bets for today's Poland vs Portugal game?

[paul8209]

Champions League: Vardar Skopje - Dinamo Zagreb

Sweltering in Skopje today and conditions will probably slightly favour the hosts, but that is probably the only advantage they might have and it will have cooled down significantly by kick off and if the forecast I saw is 100% correct, there might even be some cloud cover and a slight breeze during the game.

The Macedonian team have struggled in Europe and have not won a game since 2004, that is 16 fixtures (0-6-10), they have mainly been playing teams of a similar level to Dinamo and they are going to have to up the level of their performance to break their duck this evening.

Veteran coach Zlatko Kranjčar is back in charge of Dinamo for a third time and will clearly have a mandate to continue the visitors fine record in the competition and European football in general and to get another share of the huge riches that the Champions League offer for his club.

Over the last decade, Dinamo have qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Cup/Europa League four times, the Champions League three times since 2011-12 including last year, when they beat Arsenal in the group stage and picked up 13.5m €. You get "used" to that kind of money and the club accountants will be looking for more of the same. Of course, they do not need to win today, a point would not be terrible and they would be confident of turning things in their favour next week, but that would put them under a little pressure , everyone knows the value of an away goal and one might be enough to collect the win today. Vardar are a little short handed up top and Dinamo have an amazing UEFA Champions League qualifying road record, being 9-2-0 away from home in the last four years.

The Macedonian league doesn't begin again until next month, the Croatian league re-starts this weekend, so the visitors should be a few weeks further along in terms of fitness and I expect them to win this.

Dinamo Zagreb -0.5 ball 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket

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[scorpion]

it's so strange to see "champions league" words, after this Euro..

[paul8209]

MLS: LA Galaxy - Houston Dynamo

I previewed Houston's trip to Orlando last weekend when my notes included ..............

"Dynamo replaced Owen Coyle with Wade Barrett for the rest of this season at the end of May and he has quickly make tightening up what was a leaky defence a priority and with him at the helm Houston have conceded just six goals in seven starts, after allowing 1.62 per game under Coyle. They are coming off a 1-0 home win over highflying Philadelphia Union, who are in second place in the Eastern Conference and afterwards opposing head coach Jim Curtain said that Dynamo were "organized and difficult to break down." They are starting to really build some confidence and we had already seen glimpses of their offensive potential in early season when they put five unaswered goals past FC Dallas and three over Red Bulls on the road, teams who were the best in each Conference last year. Now they need to put that all together in road games and tonight looks a good time to be facing City, who parted ways with head coach Adrian Heath on Tuesday after eight years at the club, he oversaw the franchise expansion into the MLS and was a key figure at OCFC. His number two has also left and two assistant coaches will take charge on an interim basis.

City are in a tough period and are coming off an extra time loss to NASL team Fort Lauderdale in the US Open Cup last midweek and 4-0 defeat in Dallas on Monday, which means a lot of travel, quick turnaround all added to the disruption over Heath leaving."

That game was a bit of a bore fest to be honest, but Dynamo were again well organised and defended well and had the best chance of the game, being denied by the woodwork in the 90th minute. That was another clean sheet and they are far removed from the team who were conceding so freely in early season. They have already posted road draws at Western Conference leaders FC Dallas and Vancouver Whitecaps (who are both very strong at home) under Barrett and Dynamo will travel in good heart to LA where they have had some titanic battles, including two MLS Cup finals with Galaxy in recent years. The only defeat under the new coach did come out here in the West, when they lost 3-2 to Portland, that looks a bit of a throw back to the Coyle era as they led 2-0 early and blew their lead late, but Dynamo were the better team there, both of those late goals came via penalties and the second in injury time should never have been given and that had already been forced to substitute their goalkeeper at half time when leading by two.

They make the trip West without veteran left back DaMarcus Beasley who underwent minor surgery this week and will be out for a month, that is not good news, but the loss of Ashley Cole and Nigel de Jong for Galaxy balances things out. The pair both sat out the 1-0 road win at Seattle last week and that was a great result under the circumstances, but Sounders were denied by some poor finishing, the woodwork and a whole host of desperate late blocks and challenges and should have got something from that, probably all three points. No issues with Galaxy as favourites, but Houston are priced too big for my money and I take the improving visitors to come away with yet another draw.......1-1.

Houston Dynamo +0.75 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

US Open Cup: Chicago Fire - Fort Lauderdale Strikers

Ahead of their home game with Columbus Crew in the previous round ,I spoke about how seriously Chicago Fire have always taken the US Open Cup...........

"We have a full midweek round in Brazil starting tomorrow and are at the last 16 stage of the US Open Cup, with two of those matches being played today, the rest on Wednesday. The Chicago Fire- Columbus Crew game being played tonight is not without interest, the host have always treated the competition with respect and were close to full strength against NASL opponents in the last round, whilst Crew made wholesale changes. Teams are playing things a little closer to their chest this time round, but visiting head coach Gregg Berhalter did at least state that back up goalkeeper Brad Stuver would start in all Open Cup games, they have not got past this round in six attempts, are 0-5 v Fire in this competition losing twice here in cup play in the last three years (once in extra time) and it is easy to see Chicago taking this the more seriously of the two, playing in front of their own supporters.

Fire head coach Veljko Paunovic said "This competition is very important. "We will go with our best possible team to start with the guys we believe can win the game." He then implied that the visitors were expected to rotate to some degree: " We want to stop them from progressing out of the back where they have quality players. "They have a very defined style and they perform very well. " We obviously, have to wait to see who is going to play but we know that they're style is consistent and they don't change even when the line-up changes."

On everything we know historically about how these two clubs approach US Open Cup play, that sounds about right and we can expect Fire to field the stronger team. However, and you probably knew that there was going to be a caveat of some sorts, Fire have a home MLS game on Friday and will be mindful of that, although Paunovic said he would not think about the visit of Earthquakes until tomorrow.

Fire are four time US Open Cup champions (but not for a decade) and have made it through to the semis in each of the last three years and they can edge this and continue their fine record in the competition."

They won that 2-1 after opening up an early 2-0 lead and the Crew goal came late, via a wrongly awarded spot kick and after Fire , who will tonight be looking to reach the last four for the fourth straight year, took off their two main offensive threats at around the hour mark.

Tonight they are three wins away from some silverware and a Champions League spot and that would salvage the campaign and give them something to build on for next season. FTL are the last NASL team left in the competition and Fire could not have asked for a better draw, with the lower league team struggling and having really ridden their luck to reach this stage (all three wins coming after extra time or penalties).

There is talk of money problems at Strikers, recent salaries have been paid late and are said (unofficially) to be behind the departures of Adrianinho and Matheus Carvalho, which, with the suspension to Maicon Santo, means that FTL have only one player available with more than one goal to his name (he has two !) and arrive with no target man and a midfielder in the "striker" position. They have had quite a lot of attempts on goal this season, but most from distance, a low on target percentage and most of those achieved by players who will not be in action this evening and against a superior opponent, who is hugely motivated to win. Fire have a league game on Saturday, so will want to avoid extra time and another early two goal lead will surely be their target.

Chicago Fire -1 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

MLS: Portland Timbers - LA Galaxy

Timbers are getting everything together for a big run at the MLS Cup which they won last year, a fantastic achievement for a club who only played their first MLS game in 2011. They came on strong after a slow start in 2015, 3 wins from their opening 12 starts, 12 from their final 22 and they are building up a head of steam currently, being unbeaten in nine and, after conceding far too freely early season, back to back road cleansheets at Rapids and New York Red Bulls have been hugely impressive. They are coming off a 3-1 home win over Seattle Sounders last Sunday and will have been thinking only about this game in the interim.

Galaxy are a very big player in MLS terms and expect to be involved at the business end of every season and they will be again this year, but they had a tough battle in a 4-2 cup win over Seattle in midweek, with the two winning goals coming in the final five minutes. That was their fifth straight win in all competions, but all have been hard won, they did rest some big names against Sounders, Gerrard and Keane did not feature, but eight played some part in that and the last MLS game. We saw last season, that when on a roll and close to full strength, Timbers are a match for anybody and then some, star players Fanendo Adi, Diego Valeri, Darlington Nagbe, Alvas Powell, Jermaine Taylor and Liam Ridgewell have only played together twice all season (both wins) the last time was last Sunday and all are expected to feature today. The last three give the backline a very solid look, the first three have 20 goals and eight assists between them, Valeri is, if not the most influential midfielder in the MLS, then very close to it and as the Portland head coach put it, he is the "straw that stirs the drinks". Adi scored a whopping 14 regular season goals last season from the end of July onwards and when then Portland are firing, it takes a very strong team to stop them and I am not sure that LAG are quite that team nowadays, despite recent form. Home win. Late edit: Ridgewell is set to miss out for Timbers, but that alone is not enough to sway me .

Portland Timbers -0.25 @ 1.97 at Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

Club Friendly: MK Dons - Everton

New head coach Ronald Koeman will be very keen to get the supporters on his side, he has won his first two pre season games by a combined 4-0 and well over 2, 000 Evertonians travelled to watch the three goal win at Barnsley at the weekend and will be at Stadium MK in good numbers again this evening. They are a little restless at present as, whilst there has been plenty of talk about big name signings, none have yet to put pen to paper and the promised

[paul8209]

Ligue 2: Valenciennes - Clermont

We had very few goals on opening day last season and also no home wins, that was a little odd of course, but the previous two campaigns had produced an average of 2.7 goals, so I will see the start of 15-16 as simply a blip. Clermont were fun to watch last season, they produced a Ligue 2 high 109 goals and away starts averaged 2.95 per game. They finished 7th, seven points shy of a promotion spot, were in the mix most of the campaign and I doubt we will see too much difference in their approach, the six main "defensive" starters remain, are all in the squad and seem likely to start this evening, which kind of bears that out. They have lost two big offensive threats in top scorer Famara Diedhiou and Adrien Hunou, but winger Remy Dugimont had seven goals and three assists after the end of November and Corinne Diacre , who is in her third season in charge, believes in attacking football and has added a number of young strikers to the squad and to be honest, they have looked very similar to the Clermont of old in pre season, conceding and scoring freely.

Valenciennes were wildly unpredictable last season, as highlighted by a 5-1 win at high flying Red Star being followed by a 3-1 home defeat. They earned 24 of 44 points on the road and with a home record of 3-11-5 , it is clear where their issues lie, they lost 2-1 and 3-1 to Clermont (league and cup), winger Wesley Jobello scored twice in the latter and given that Diacre opted to leave him out of squad which travelled, she must be reasonably confident about her team's offensive options. Gambling and winning half of those home darws would have taken Valenciennes into the top 8 (they were 12th) and that is the aim this season (to take a few more chances) and they have named an offensive looking group for this evening, with little defensive cover (18 yo Kyle Duncan has only ever played three games for the B team).

I expect both to score and each to press for a winner, so it has to be ......

over 2.25 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket

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[scorpion]

Club Friendly: MK Dons - Everton

New head coach Ronald Koeman will be very keen to get the supporters on his side, he has won his first two pre season games by a combined 4-0 and well over 2, 000 Evertonians travelled to watch the three goal win at Barnsley at the weekend and will be at Stadium MK in good numbers again this evening. They are a little restless at present as, whilst there has been plenty of talk about big name signings, none have yet to put pen to paper and the promised

I believe in Ronald Koeman's success in new team. I'm sure he could be new David Moyes for Everton.

[paul8209]

Champions League: Dundalk - BATE Borisov (0-1 first leg)

We have discussed BATE many times previously in Champions League qualification and they are probably the most experienced of all the non "elite" teams and have made the group stage of the competition five times since 2008-09, including the last two and in four of the last five seasons. They know how to work their way through these games and having won their domestic league for ten straight years and often easily, their whole season is usually planned and built around these games. They also have the advantage over most that, come early August, they are battle hardened and halfway through their league and at what should be peak fitness levels, they are currently heading for an 11th title and are 10 points clear after 13 rounds. This will not be a step into the unknown for them, last season they saw off Dundalk in Q2, winning 2-1 at home before drawing 0-0 in Ireland, now they arrive with another single goal lead, albeit this time with a clean sheet, to play in the Tallaght Stadium, the home of Shamrock Rovers, where this match will be held.

Dundalk are without the injured Brian Gartland and captain Stephen O’Donnell and midfielder Ronan Finn are doubtful and will face late tests. The hosts look on course for a third straight Premier Division title, but are novices at this level and were comprehensively outplayed in Borisov, despite holding out for 70 minutes. However, BATE barely do too much above the minimum and have drawn four of five qualification games after winning the home leg, they will be happy with 0-0 and if they score, will sit back for sure and that will give Dundalk a chance to equalise, maybe even edge to a win, as they would need three to progress, but a repeat of last year's 0-0 feels the most likely scoreline. Dundalk boss Stephen Kenny was in charge of Bohemians when they overturned a 1-0 first leg loss to beat BATE in 2003 and whilst that was a very long time ago and the Belarus giants are a completely different club nowadays, that will give him some belief and he will be trying to transmit that to his players, who are much improved in the last two years. Despite thir incredible achievements ,BATE have played 17 European away games without a win and although they have played a lot of big clubs in that sequence, there are more than a handful against minnows and as already outlined, they rarely do more than they need.

Dundalk +0.25 ball 2.44 asian line/Sportmarket or, +0.5 2.03 as an alternative

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[paul8209]

France Ligue 2: Le Havre - Nimes


I previewed Nimes home game with Laval last weekend .............

"I wrote a lengthy preview of Nimes' trip to then leaders Nancy, who went on to win Ligue 2 by four points, back in late January, in that I spoke about Nimes great goalscoring form and how they had made a habit of running into form through the second half of recent campaigns. They collected 34 points from 18 starts from the end of November, which is more or less top 3 shape for half a season , add in their 8 point deduction and they would have finished 9th and given all that the players had to deal with in early season ( confidence was shot from how the previous campaign ended and they took until October 23rd to get to +1 point !), that was a fantastic achievement. They got great support through this improved run, fans bought into the great escape/ them against us attitude and five figure crowds (big numbers for them and L2) were turning up and really getting behind the team. What could have been a disaster, actually turned into a campaign full of promise and hope for the future.

Head coach Bernard Blaquart has been busy over the summer and looks to have upgraded the backline and the addition of two experienced full backs in Gael Angoula and Zie Diabate looks good business. Up front, the signing of Rachid Alioui is promising, he was top scorer for Laval last season, which. additionally weakens the visitors, the striker hit the ground running this time last year, with five goals and two assists in the first 11 games and he was playing for a team who do not score many (just 12 in total through that sequence).

Laval just do not win enough games and are too timid at times, drawing 50% of all games in the last two seasons, averaging exactly one goal per game (less last season) and too often settling for one point, when, with a little more enterprise, three could have been there for the taking. In addition to Alioui, they have also lost playmaker playmaker Romain Habran and Anthony Goncalves, their two top assist makers, that is a lot of goal threat from a team who do not pose much ! The solid defence has been split up with two players leaving and three of those remaining are getting pretty long in the tooth now ( in their 33rd-38th years) and this could be a tough season for the visitors.

Nimes took a lot of confidence from a 1-0 pre season loss to Marseille, where they attracted a big crowd and dominated much of the play and were denined by the woodwork and some late ditch callenges/saves, they have low price admission deals to get as many people into the stadium tonight as possible and are targeting a fast start this time round and to continue where they left off last season. They have been away at a training centre all week to prepare for today and "bond" and I favour them to start with a win."

Like many games last weekend that was a largely uninspiring affair, but Nimes were the better side and not helped by a poor playing surface , or referee Florent Batta ,who gave up 105 yellow and five reds in 21 Ligue 2 games last season and started as he means to go on in his one man crusade to ruin second tier football, by producing 10 yellow and two red here, the Laval dismissal came late in injury time, Nimes played 40 minutes a man short and probably saw a draw as respectable at that stage. I will be doing my best to avoid any games where Batta is in charge in future. I have spoken many times previously about Nimes being very offensive minded, especially when facing an opponent with a similar mindset and I expect, Le Havre, who are amongst the title favourites and who were one of those teams (see above) to open with a win last week, to be all out guns blazing for three points today. The two teams played out a pair of wide open encounters last season, which both produced four goals and something along the same lines is expected today.

HAC came up a goal short of promotion last season and that, allied to just two automatic promotion spots, should ensure they will always be looking for maximum points. Nimes are without suspended left back (but has now been converted to left sided central defender) Fethi Harek, the 11 games he has missed in the last 12 months have averaged 2.91 goals. His absence will have got the attention of Le Havre new signing Algerian winger Zinedine Ferhat, who could go down the same route as HAC's last "name" Algerian signing Rihad Mahrez, Ferhat has every trick in the book and then some and there will be plenty of entertainment in watching him this season.

over 2.25 goals 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket

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[paul8209]

UEFA Super Cup: Real Madrid VS Sevilla

Sevilla are now Super Cup regulars and are appearing in this European football season "opener" for the 5th time in the last 11 seasons. The previous four have produced 17 goals, including a 4-4 draw with Barcelona in 90 minutes last year, Sevilla have scored eight of those goals and are certainly not afraid to take the game the Champions League winner. La Liga games between Real and Los Rojiblancos offer even more promise of goals, with the last ten h2h meetings producing 47 goals with five going "over" the 4.5 goal line. The two most recent (last season) saw four goals in the capital and five in Seville and draws are incredibly rare, none in the last 20, 15 wins for Real, 5 for Sevilla.

There is no Cristiano Ronaldo , Gareth Bale, Pepe or Toni Kroos in the Real squad (see below) , but Real have wins and goals in their absence in pre season with victories over Bayern Munich and Chelsea and three goals inside the opening 38 minutes in the latter and there are plenty of players looking to impress and showcase their talents in the absence of the two big offensive stars. Sevilla are much changed since winning the Europa League , head coach Unai Emery has moved on to PSG and been replaced by Copa America winner Jorge Sampaoli , top scorer K