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I guess this game will be for Wigan. They are favorites for me, definitely
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England Championship: Norwich - Burton
Briefly, I expect both teams to score and probably Norwich to edge home 2-1/3-2/3-1, something like that. Burton have adapted quite well to life in the Championship, have 9 points on board and only five teams have scored more goals. They are not afraid to take the game to teams and have scored in all four road games and conceded in all nine competitive starts. They are not really operating on a level Championship playing field, with a low budget and determined to stay within their means, they will need as many points as they can collect early season. They were playing non league football seven yeras ago and they have come a very long way in a short time and that almost always catches up with teams, unless they have the backing and that almost always means finances, to stay one step ahead of the game. This is a tough unrelenting league and it will be difficult for the Brewers to survive. That is for another day, for now, this is all still new and wonderful and they will enjoy their trip to Carrow Road.
I discussed Norwich and their game with Wigan in the Friday notes and how they allowed the Latics back into a game they should have run away with. The Canaries are amongst the favourites for promotion and will be there or thereabouts, but have conceded in their last three home starts and in 6 of their last 7 home starts in their Championship promotion camapign, the season before last. They can be devastating at this level when things click, but the crowd here urges them forward a little too often at times and they can lose their way in games and Albion will get opportunities, both to score @ 2.0-2.05 looks good, but easier to back is ............
"over" 2.75 goals 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket
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Post here please, your predictions for coming Champions League matches.Comment
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Champions League: Monaco - Bayer Leverkusen
We sided with the hosts for their opening group game at Wembley against Tottenham ........"Monaco are top of Ligue 1 and were certainly no less impressive than Spurs in a 4-1 away win at Lille on Saturday, they played with great pace and width, so Wembley should suit, they will be stronger today with a couple of regulars returning and arrive full of confidence. ASM upgraded in the summer and feel they are very different from the side who lost 4-1 at White Hart Lane last December in the Europa League. That was a half hearted performance from the visitors who were already on their way out of a competition they were not committed to and they were at the time still playing catch up in Ligue 1 for a Champions League place, their target for the season. Already competition battle hardened through playoff games with Villarreal where they won both legs, I favour them to take a point this evening in what could be a very entertaining contest."
They won that 2-1 and have taken both home games since, with their "blip", a 4-0 loss at rivals Nice sandwiched in between. It was key that they got back on track on Saturday after that heavy loss and this is a very different ASM to the one we have seen in recent campaigns, they are certainly more vulnerable defensively, but are on a different level at the other end of the pitch. 17 of their last 22 starts have gone "over", including 4 of 5 Champions League games and those 22 matches averaged 3.41 per game.
Bayer Leverkusen started with a 2-2 home draw with CSKA Moscow and like most German teams are used to playing an offensive style, their last seven group starts have averaged 4.14 goals and were far more open than even that suggests, they scored at Barcelona and Roma (twice) last season and can play their part in another open contest.
"over" 2.75 goals 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket
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I don't think there will be easy pass for Tottenham in away game in Moscow..Comment
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Yes, 1-0 victory for Hotspur.. I was surprised by the Borussia game's quality yesterday against Real.Comment
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MLS: Seattle Sounders - Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire did finally break that dismal road record last month winning 3-0 in Montreal, their first away win in 37 attempts and more than 25 months, you might think that would have kick started a sequence, but no, they have lost their two subsequent road games by a combined 10-3 ! They sit bottom of the East, a win tonight would not change that and you suspect rebuilding for next season will be well underway and any remaining energies saved for their last two home starts, not a game 4,000km away from home, against an in form, motivated opponent.
Sounders appear to have found some form just in time , they have taken heart from 7 points in their last three starts and huge confidence from a 4-2 win in LA over Galaxy on Sunday. That took them to within three points of a playoff spot, with two games in hand on all the clubs directly above them, they host Real Salt Lake (currently 4th) on the final day of the season (October 23rd) and it is not impossible that Seattle could still snatch that 4th place and that is a huge incentive. It would give them a HOME one leg playoff first round game and the last eight hosting teams have progressed ! Fire don't concede just one, they have two clean sheets in 11 starts, but once allowing a first goal, they have always given up at least two at an average of 2.89 per game and three or more in 6 of 9 away starts.
Seattle Sounders -1.25 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket
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England Championship: Brentford - Wigan Athletic
Brentford are still not the finished article and will be a better team in six weeks than they are today, they still have two players getting up to speed with Championship pace who already look better than most at this level, two to come back from injury and as a group .they are only just realizing how good they can be.
I wasn't going to back them today, but odds are too big and my hands are tied, they are unbeaten at home since March, have scored nine in their last two here at Griffin Park and some of the passing in the 4-1 defeat of Reading on Tuesday , was unbelievable. But it is not a 90 minute performance at present and Wigan will get chances, but visiting top scorer Will Grigg was deemed surplus to requirements at Brentford , the hosts will know all about him and (knock loudly on wood !) very few former players have returned and done well in recent campaigns. John Swift on Tuesday was an example , he got a LOT of undeserved abuse and GP is a ground where the crowd can almost touch you and every word from the stands can be heard . Bees get key midfielder Ryan Woods back from suspension today and he will freshen up a team where competition for starting places is fierce at present.
Brentford -0.75 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket
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Serie A: Roma - Inter
Sit back and enjoy !
Roma's ten competitive starts this season have averaged 3.3 goals with six producing four or more. In Serie A, since the start of last season they have a 16-5-1 record since the start of last season, a 73% win rate, but they have conceded in 15 (68%) and a whopping 50% of all starts have produced four or more goals . They will look to push forward against anyone, but look terribly vulnerable to any quality counter attacking team.
Inter have featured a lot in my notes this season ,they were disappointed by their 1-1 home draw with Bologna last week and rested key players for this, in their Europa League trip to Prague in midweek, where they lost 3-1 to Sparta and they have kept just a single clean sheet in eight competitive starts this season and in only 4 of 25 Serie A games. They have big offensive potential, but we have yet to really see it, but they are back under pressure for a result and that might well help them to produce one. They probably need to score twice to get a result and Mauro Icardi and Ivan Perisic have eight goals between them and Icardi has scored four in his last two road outings and Inter have the potential to score a couple.
"Sick note" Thomas Vermalen is missing again and Roma have conceded nine goals in the five league and Champions League games he has missed and the back up options are just not good enough.
"over" 3 goals 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket
Inter to score two or more goals ("over" 1.5) 2.875-3.0 general quote
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Hah, there were 3 goals and Inter under 1,5 goals.. Anyway your prediction was close to real.Comment
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Brazil Serie A: Atletico Paranaense - Chapecoense
Atletico are 6th, six points behind Santos in fourth place, but with 4th and 5th meeting ( see above) they will close up on one or both with all three points this evening and given that they are 11-2-1 at home, where they have conceded only five goals and with 54% +home wins in the league, it is difficult not to see them as value to do so at close to even money ! They actually have very good fixtures remaining and their next eight starts come against teams with an average league placing of 12.62.
Chapecoense have performed much better on the road than we have come to expect from them in recent campaigns, but such is the way of these things, that their usually very solid home form has suffered ! However, their are safe(ish) in mid table, have a Copa Sudamerican two legged semi final this month and I would expect them to be selective about which matches they really focus on from here on in, basically the Copa and home games, where they owe supporters a performance or two.
Atletico are a fantastic 7-0-0 at home when level at half time and waiting for the break is definitely an option, but I will officially go with...........
Atletico Paranaense -0.5 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket
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I have never done the bets on Brazil Seria A matches. Need to try it =)Comment
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Irish Premier League: Finn Harps - Bray Wanderers
I want to take on goal shy Finn Harps again today, ahead of Tuesday's trip to Sligo Rovers I wrote ..........
"Finn Harps arrive without suspended left back Ciaran Coll and striker Dave Scully who are both suspended , also have Josh Mailey unavailable and several other knocks, which will require late tests. They have scored just twice since July 8th, only 19 times all season and have now lost nine in a row and confidence is shot and runs like these are very hard to address. The visitors currently sit four clear of the relegation playoff places and still have to travel to play the team directly below them, they could do with a point or two, but they are more likely to come at home, and they entertain Bray on Friday night and there is a good chance that if they fall behind this evening, that attention will quickly switch to that, a fixture which is more win-able and for which they will have increased options. They have no real replacement for Coll at LB, the unavailable Mailey stepped in the last time he was missing, so that is not an option, it is likely to be a midfielder stepping back and they are already short of left flank options."
Harps came away with a valuable point in a 0-0 draw, but were a little fortunate, with the hosts missing a late, late penalty.
They have now played Saturday/Tuesday/Friday with a beat up squad and face a Bray side who have not played for eight days and who are on absolute fire, posting five wins in a row, with a 13-3 goal difference, including three on the road. They have their eyes on 5th place , which would be their second highest finish ever and they would move into that position with all three points this evening.
Wanderers appointed Harry Kenny head coach in mid June, when they had just 8 points on board from 15 starts, he seriously upgraded the squad in the summer and they have collected 30 points from 14 starts since, an increase of 1.61 points per game, if Bray had performed at this level all season, they would be top of the IPL. If current leaders Dundalk were coming here tonight, they would be quoted as big odds on chances and the visitors look a very attractive price. Striker Ger Pender has scored in the last five league starts and will be keen to extend that club record this evening and Wanderers their 13 match unbeaten run.
Home boss Ollie Horgan would love to have an option like that, striker Ruairi Keating is definitely out after sustaining ankle ligament damage on Tuesday, fellow forward Dave Scully remains suspended ,veteran attacker Kevin McHugh will also be absent after sustaining a serious hand injury on Wednesday in a coaching session ,Adam Hanlon is a serious doubt. On the plus side they do get Ciaran Coll ( see above) back, but it is goals which are the big issue, that situation is compounded by players missing today and it is hard to see where the next one is coming from, whilst Bray cannot stop scoring !
Bray Wanderers -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket
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What about Europe qualifiers games in this weekend?Comment
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England League 2: Hartlepool United - Crawley Town
Crawley Town also made the short list and are such a big price, I also have to take a little something on them. They are up to fifth and just two points off second place and confidence at the club is sky high right now . Much of this is down to new head coach Dermot Drummy who has transformed the mindset at Crawley in just four months, well know in the game, he spent many years working with the Arsenal and Chelsea Academy and U21 teams and was in charge of the Blues teams who won the FA Youth Cup and U21 Premier League and this was an eyecatching appointment for Crawley. He is said to have had a massive influence and he has brought with him six current (loan) and former Chelsea players, who were all desperate to work with him again. Lots of small things have been changed , for example, they set off early yesterday for Hartlepool and stopped and trained en route at the very impressive Leeds United Academy facilities and they just do everything the right way now. Town are unbeaten in five , with four wins, including the last two away starts, where they scored five goals. They were bought by Turkish steel magnate Ziya Eren in March, he owns a club in his homeland and looks to be in this for the long term (with a ten year plan to reach the Championship) and Crawley to be heading in the right direction
Pool are 0-4-3 in their last seven league at home, also lost 1-0 here to the Sunderland Academy on Tuesday and boss Craig Hignett was awarded a three match touchline ban yesterday and now for the bad news ! The hosts are without eight players today and are hard hit defensively and in central midfield, key absences are goalkeeper Trevor Carson who is on international duty, back up Adam Bartlett has conceded 15 goals in his last four starts, including six this year at 20th placed Stevenage and central midfielder Nicky Featherstone (lost 4 of last 5 he has sat out), his absence is compounded with Michael Woods also missing in the middle of the park. Crawley with the handicap start !
Crawley Town +0.25 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket
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