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Event Wrap:
A tough tournament and one we are taking fairly lightly due to it being an inaugural event on the European Tour. In saying that we feel there is an opportunity to pick a few ‘diamonds in the rough’, given this course has been played on the Asian tour, and as we learnt last week, the greens suit the Asian players greatly.
It is worth mentioning that this tournament heavily favours players who have played the course and there are a number of guys who are sponsored or live on the course itself, giving these guys a huge advantage over the field. The course was also rated by the players as the best in Asia last year.
Key indicators for an event with no readily stats available will be Greens in Regulation and Putting, with a reliance on previous course form given the past winners.
Top Picks:
Thongchai Jaidee ($16.5)
The obvious pick in a tournament with a weaker field and on home turf. Jaidee is also sponsored by the course and has performed well at the event on the Asian tour, with a 5th and a 7th. Greens in regulation will be important this week and Jaidee hits 70.8% but more importantly is 18th for putts per GIR and 29th for putts per round, which puts him top 5 for this tournament’s field.
Alexander Noren ($14)
Can choose to leave out until his odds drift – Probably under odds at $14.
Will be interesting to see how he goes after a week off but had great form prior to that. Noren has played the course before with an 8th in 2010 and displayed great form on the Asian tour before jumping ship the European Tour. Having a super year ranking 12th for GIR at 77.8%, 23rd for putts per GIR and 26th for putts per round.
Best E/W:
Scott Hend ($32)
I have been watching this guy all year ever since I first saw his European Tour stats, he has a monster drive and his Asian Tour stats are excellent, ranking 18th for GIR, 2nd for distance and 35th for putting. Has been on the rise and also has solid course form in the previous events played here. Definite top 5 chance.
Alejandro Canizares ($34)
Cracking form last week, with a faultless display until the final day. Seemed to adjust to the greens well and is ranked 4th for putts per GIR and 8th for putts per round. Will need to hit as many greens as he did last week in Malaysia but should be a top hope for a tournament like this.
Speculative Basket: (Top 10 / 20 bets)
Paul Waring ($60)
Challenged well last week after draining a hole in one early in the tournament, and finished an admirable 3rd at 13 under. This shows he adjusted well to the greens ranking 15th for putting and top 15 for all other stats. His year to date stats all show he is on the improve and one to watch out for this week.
Paul Peterson ($80)
A new one to us, but we noticed this guy last week when he started to tear the course a new one late in the tournament, ending up finishing 5th. He is unbelievably accurate off the tee (83.9%), hits 72% of GIR, and ranks 11th and 9th for putting stats. Further helping are his Asian stats where he is also top 50 in all key indicators and 29th for putting.
Rikard Karlberg ($60)
Sponsored by the course and plays it regularly. All his stats indicate that he is a good chance here besides his putting which has been letting him down. Asian tour form explains he likes the greens over here more, dropping a putt per round and ranking top 10 for GIR. Also has solid results in the events he has played on course, coming 2nd last year.
Prom Meesawat ($50)
Has insane putting stats and seems to adapt well to Euro / Asian greens well. Has solid course form and will no doubt be inside the top 20 for the tournament.
Prayad Marksaeng ($65)
Basically picked for being a course specialist. He came 2nd here in 2009 with 15 under, 8th in 2010 with 11 under (3 off the lead), 1st in the Kings Cup of Golf last year with 12 under and 18th with 7 under in the Thailand Golf Championship in a strong field.
Un-back able: (Monitor Market)
Anirban Lahiri ($21)
Ridiculous odds for someone going back to back, has very solid course form and probably the best stats screen of anyone in the field. He could come out and shoot 10 under again like last week but I feel he is un-back able at those low odds. Will monitor market and look at backing him to win in Delhi next week.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($32)
A regular tour leader on the Asian tour and a solid second round last week not helped by a blowout day one. Shouldn’t be those odds even given his status after that first round last week, so will sit on him for now.
A tough tournament and one we are taking fairly lightly due to it being an inaugural event on the European Tour. In saying that we feel there is an opportunity to pick a few ‘diamonds in the rough’, given this course has been played on the Asian tour, and as we learnt last week, the greens suit the Asian players greatly.
It is worth mentioning that this tournament heavily favours players who have played the course and there are a number of guys who are sponsored or live on the course itself, giving these guys a huge advantage over the field. The course was also rated by the players as the best in Asia last year.
Key indicators for an event with no readily stats available will be Greens in Regulation and Putting, with a reliance on previous course form given the past winners.
Top Picks:
Thongchai Jaidee ($16.5)
The obvious pick in a tournament with a weaker field and on home turf. Jaidee is also sponsored by the course and has performed well at the event on the Asian tour, with a 5th and a 7th. Greens in regulation will be important this week and Jaidee hits 70.8% but more importantly is 18th for putts per GIR and 29th for putts per round, which puts him top 5 for this tournament’s field.
Alexander Noren ($14)
Can choose to leave out until his odds drift – Probably under odds at $14.
Will be interesting to see how he goes after a week off but had great form prior to that. Noren has played the course before with an 8th in 2010 and displayed great form on the Asian tour before jumping ship the European Tour. Having a super year ranking 12th for GIR at 77.8%, 23rd for putts per GIR and 26th for putts per round.
Best E/W:
Scott Hend ($32)
I have been watching this guy all year ever since I first saw his European Tour stats, he has a monster drive and his Asian Tour stats are excellent, ranking 18th for GIR, 2nd for distance and 35th for putting. Has been on the rise and also has solid course form in the previous events played here. Definite top 5 chance.
Alejandro Canizares ($34)
Cracking form last week, with a faultless display until the final day. Seemed to adjust to the greens well and is ranked 4th for putts per GIR and 8th for putts per round. Will need to hit as many greens as he did last week in Malaysia but should be a top hope for a tournament like this.
Speculative Basket: (Top 10 / 20 bets)
Paul Waring ($60)
Challenged well last week after draining a hole in one early in the tournament, and finished an admirable 3rd at 13 under. This shows he adjusted well to the greens ranking 15th for putting and top 15 for all other stats. His year to date stats all show he is on the improve and one to watch out for this week.
Paul Peterson ($80)
A new one to us, but we noticed this guy last week when he started to tear the course a new one late in the tournament, ending up finishing 5th. He is unbelievably accurate off the tee (83.9%), hits 72% of GIR, and ranks 11th and 9th for putting stats. Further helping are his Asian stats where he is also top 50 in all key indicators and 29th for putting.
Rikard Karlberg ($60)
Sponsored by the course and plays it regularly. All his stats indicate that he is a good chance here besides his putting which has been letting him down. Asian tour form explains he likes the greens over here more, dropping a putt per round and ranking top 10 for GIR. Also has solid results in the events he has played on course, coming 2nd last year.
Prom Meesawat ($50)
Has insane putting stats and seems to adapt well to Euro / Asian greens well. Has solid course form and will no doubt be inside the top 20 for the tournament.
Prayad Marksaeng ($65)
Basically picked for being a course specialist. He came 2nd here in 2009 with 15 under, 8th in 2010 with 11 under (3 off the lead), 1st in the Kings Cup of Golf last year with 12 under and 18th with 7 under in the Thailand Golf Championship in a strong field.
Un-back able: (Monitor Market)
Anirban Lahiri ($21)
Ridiculous odds for someone going back to back, has very solid course form and probably the best stats screen of anyone in the field. He could come out and shoot 10 under again like last week but I feel he is un-back able at those low odds. Will monitor market and look at backing him to win in Delhi next week.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($32)
A regular tour leader on the Asian tour and a solid second round last week not helped by a blowout day one. Shouldn’t be those odds even given his status after that first round last week, so will sit on him for now.