2024 Paris Olympics medal tally

[blackswan]

Nielson's Gracenote has released its medal table forecast for the 2024 Paris Olympics and the gold medal tally predictions are interesting.

Their predictions:

https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/virtual-medal-table-forecast/

While they expect the USA will win the total medal tally by a country mile, they only forecast that the USA will pick up one more gold than China. The USA only picked up one more gold than China in Tokyo too.

Most bookmakers have the USA at around 1.15-1.25 to pick up the most gold medals, with China available at 5.00. Based on Nielson's Gracenote's predictions, China looks to be decent value at those odds.

[blackswan]

I also like betting on country tallies as the Olympics progresses. I've seen markets for Australia, but I'm waiting for Betfair to launch their markets for other countries.

A country like Australia starts picking up medals quickly due to the swimming, while a country like New Zealand starts to accumulate medals later due to their strengths lying in rowing and canoeing. These trends can create back to lay and lay to back possibilities.