Rugby World Cup - Group Stage - Round 3

[admin]

The 2011 Rugby World Cup group stage continues throughout the week with a fixture per day from Tuesday through Friday. The tournament served up its first major upset when the Wallabies lost 15-6 to Ireland on Saturday. No team that has lost a game in the group stage has ever gone on to win the World Cup, but the Wallabies are still a chance to win the tournament, albeit with a tougher fixture list.

This weekend provides two great fixtures, with the All Blacks facing their World Cup nemesis France, while Argentina and Scotland face off for what is likely a fight for second place in Group B.

If all goes to plan, the quarter-finals are shaping up as follows:

Top half of the draw:

Ireland vs Wales
England vs France (most likely) or New Zealand

Bottom half of the draw:

South Africa vs Australia
New Zealand (most likely) or France vs Argentina or Scotland

If Argentina beat Scotland then the knock out stage could feature northern hemisphere teams on one half of the draw and southern hemisphere teams on the other half.

Australia's loss to Ireland means the runner up of Group A (either New Zealand or France) will still fancy their chances to go deep in the tournament.

Below are the odds for the remaining round 3 fixtures (subject to change).

[qtip]

Tonga v Japan: I'm inclined to take Japan in a line bet here. When the two sides played in July Japan won 28-27, but the NZ media are picking Tonga to win by 1-12.

NZ v France: if this were a knockout stage clash I'd take France +16, but with less pressure on perhaps NZ will play more open rugby. I'm unsure at this stage.

Argentina v Scotland: should be a great game. My initial pick is Argentina to win, but I'll do some more research between now and Sunday before betting.

[qtip]

Damn, the Japan line has moved to +4.5.

H2H:
Tonga 1.53
Japan 2.50

Will give it some more thought.

[Punters United]

Hi qtip,

Are you a betfair member?

I've backed Japan +18.5 @ 1.18 with them.

[pominoz]

USA have made 14 changes to the squad that beat Russia, so we could get an ugly scoreline, especially given they will be playing an angry Wallabies outfit.

[qtip]

I almost wagered $5 @ 6.25 on South Africa -86.5 (placed it in by bet slip and everything), only to watch them win 87-0 :-(

I always get cold feat with line betting on one sided fixtures because neither team's incentives are aligned with mine. If I backed a team to win you know they'll try their hardest to do so. But if you back Australia to win by 61 and they're up 60-3 with a few minutes to go, you know that by that stage they're just going through the motions, and won't push for another try for the sake of the punters!

The lines have been moving substantially, which shows it's a good idea to check out the odds early.

I'll hold off and perhaps bet in-play.

[rotten_luck]

might lay off the aus game...

looking forward to the abs v france, although france aren't full strength . my kiwi mate reckons nz always lose the world cup because everyone goes second string against them in the pools. they don't get a good hit out until the knock outs...

i've got $15 on south africa to win @ 13.00. if they play nz i'll back the abs to cover myself.

[AngelaRey]

I am looking forward for the abs v france too. Cannot wait what will be the result.