NFL Picks

[blackswan]

Here are the results for week 13:

St. Louis @ 1.37 (WIN)
St. Louis 1-13 @ 2.14 (Loss)
Pittsburgh @ 1.50 (Loss)
Indianapolis @ 1.21 (WIN)
Baltimore @ 1.38 (Loss)

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: -5.5 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for week 13:

St. Louis @ 1.37
Oakland broke their losing streak last week but they were playing at home. St. Louis have beaten Denver and Seattle at home this season so I expect them too be too good for Oakland.

St. Louis 1-13 @ 2.14 (not a typo - Sportsbet uses 1-13 not 1-12)
Six of Oakland's seven away losses were by 1-12 points, while St. Louis have won by 1-12 points in three out of their four wins.

Pittsburgh @ 1.50
The Saints have been disappointing at home over the last three weeks and they have an awful away record. Pittsburgh have been very good at home of late. I'm nervous about this pick, though, because the Steelers have been unpredictable this season.

Indianapolis @ 1.21
The Colts are 7-2 at home over the last 12 months while Washington are 1-7 on the road. Defensively Washington are okay but I doubt RGIII can keep up with Luck on Sunday.

Baltimore @ 1.38
San Diego have been disappointing in their most recent away games and Baltimore have thumped their last three visiting teams - all of which failed to score more than 10 points.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for week 12:

Kansas City @ 1.31 (Loss)
Kansas City -7.0 @ 1.86 (Loss)
Philadelphia @ 1.15 (WIN)
Philadelphia -11.0 @ 1.99 (WIN)
New England @ 1.32 (WIN)
New England -6.5 @ 1.86 (WIN)
Green Bay @ 1.23 (WIN)
Green Bay -9.5 @ 1.90 (Loss)
Indianapolis @ 1.11 (WIN)
Indianapolis -13.5 @ 1.86 (WIN)
St. Louis +5 @ 1.95 (WIN)
Denver @ 1.33 (WIN)
San Francisco @ 1.26 (WIN)
Dallas @ 1.58 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +26.5 units on 140 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +18.7 units

[blackswan]

Here are my NFL picks for Week 12:

Kansas City @ 1.31
Kansas City -7.0 @ 1.86
Kansas City have only lost one of their last 8. Oakland are winless in their last 8 at home and they're 1-7 at the line at home.

Philadelphia @ 1.15
Philadelphia -11.0 @ 1.99
The only team Tennessee has beaten in recent times was Jacksonville. Philadelphia have won 8 of their last 9 home games and they're 6-1-2 at the line at home.

New England @ 1.32
New England -6.5 @ 1.86
Detroit are a good team but New England are immense when they're at home and they're in imposing form at the moment.

Green Bay @ 1.23
Green Bay -9.5 @ 1.90
Green Bay's offence has been immense of late and they thumped the Vikings by 32 points earlier in the season.

Indianapolis @ 1.11
Indianapolis -13.5 @ 1.86
Jacksonville are awful, especially on the road, and Indianapolis have a strong home record where they're 7-2 at the line.

St. Louis +5 @ 1.95
I give the Rams a fighting chance of causing an upset against San Diego, who have been disappointing this season. St. Louis have already claimed the scalp of San Francisco on the road this year and they're coming off a convincing win over Denver.

Denver @ 1.33
Denver are 5-0 over the last twelve months when they come into a game on the back of a loss. They are also 4-1 at the line on the back of a loss.

San Francisco @ 1.26
Washington are a mess at the QB position and you get the feeling the Washington locker room is not a happy place to be at the moment. RG III has been disappointing since his return from injury.

Dallas @ 1.58
Dallas are having an excellent season and they've won 5 of their last 6 away games. The Giants have fallen apart over the last 5 weeks.

[blackswan]

Here are my results for Week 11:

New Orleans @ 1.32 (Loss)
San Francisco @ 1.52 (WIN)
Cleveland @ 1.58 (Loss)
Green Bay @ 1.40 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -10.8 units on 40 units wagered. I think next week I'll publish tips for all fixtures because I did pretty well on other fixtures I didn't write about this week - Murphy's Law, eh?

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: -7.8 units

[blackswan]

Here are my NFL picks for Week 11:

New Orleans @ 1.32
New Orleans will still be steaming after the late controversial call cost them (and me!) last week's game. They are at home for this game and they have an excellent record at the Superdome. Cincinnati were unbelievably bad last week and they will most likely still be without RB Giovani Bernard.

San Francisco @ 1.52
The NY Giants offence is dreadful at the moment and their defence has conceded 106 points in their last 2 games. Also, San Francisco are 8-3 on the road over the last 12 months.

Cleveland @ 1.58
Cleveland have won their last 3 home games and they're coming off a shock road win over Cincinnati. Texas RB Arian Foster has a hamstring issue and Texas have an awful record when he doesn't play.

Green Bay @ 1.40
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has been in sensational form of late - particularly at home, where he threw 6 TDs in the first half against Chicago. While Philadelphia are a great team, I don't see them, or any other team for that matter, keeping up with Green Bay's rampant home offence.

[blackswan]

Here are my results for Week 10:

Cincinnati @ 1.39 (Loss)
Pittsburgh @ 1.46 (Loss)
New Orleans @ 1.45 (Loss - in OT)
Baltimore @ 1.21 (WIN)
Seattle @ 1.28 (WIN)
Arizona @ 1.32 (WIN)
Green Bay @ 1.30 (WIN)
Philadelphia @ 1.43 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -14.6 units on 80 units wagered. What a crappy week!

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +3.0 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for Week 10:

Cincinnati @ 1.39
Cincinnati are 8-1-1 at home over the last 12 months while Cleveland are 1-6 on the road. Cleveland have lost 17 straight road games in the AFC North and Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a 3-0 home record against Cleveland. Cincinnati have WR AJ Green closer to full fitness after he played about half of the snaps last week. Since they lost their starting centre, Alex Mack, Cleveland have been terrible at running the football - they clearly have very little depth at that position.

Pittsburgh @ 1.46
The NY Jets have been terrible this season, even by their standards.

New Orleans @ 1.45
New Orleans have a fantastic home record and San Francisco appear to have lost their way a bit.

Baltimore @ 1.21
Baltimore have had a tough couple of weeks but they're generally very good at home, where they've won 6 of their last 8 when installed as the favourite.

Seattle @ 1.28
Seattle are excellent at home and the NY Giants have a terrible record of late against playoff calibre teams.

Arizona @ 1.32
Arizona have been on fire of late and they are 6-1 in their last 7 home games. St Louis are 2-5 in their last 7 away games.

Green Bay @ 1.30
Green Bay are 4-1-0 as the home favourite over the last 12 months while Chicago have only won 1 of their last 5 games.

Philadelphia @ 1.43
Philadelphia have won 8 of their last 9 home games whie Carolina are 1-1-3 as the road underdog. Carolina are 1-1-5 in their last 7 games.

[blackswan]

Here are my results for Week 9:

Carolina +3 @ 1.88 (Loss - my one bad pick this week)
Washington @ 1.98 (Loss - close)
Kansas City @ 1.25 (WIN - easily)
Philadelphia @ 1.83 (WIN)
Cincinnati @ 1.18 (WIN)
San Francisco @ 1.20 (Loss - I'm still spewing over that final drive fumble)
New England +3 @ 2.05 (WIN - easily)
Seattle @ 1.07 (WIN - closer than I would have liked)
Pittsburgh @ 2.00 (WIN - easily)
Indianapolis @ 1.62 (WIN - easily)


If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +10.0 units on 100 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +17.6 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for Week 9:

Carolina +3 @ 1.88
Over the last year Carolina are 7-1-2 at the line at home while New Orleans are 3-8 on the road and 0-6 as the road favourite.

Washington @ 1.98
Robert Griffin III returns to start this week. Even if Griffin doesn't play the entire game, reserve QB Colt McCoy is a decent replacement.

Kansas City @ 1.25
Kansas City have played well at home over the last few weeks and the Jets have only won 1 of their last 7 away games.

Philadelphia @ 1.83
Houston have consistently beaten weaker teams and lost to stronger teams this season. Houston have lost their last 9 straight games when installed as the underdog while Philadelphia have won 10 out of their last 12 when installed as the favourite. Also, Houstin star RB Arian Foster has been battling a knee injury during the week. Houston have a terrible record when he doesn't play. Houston WR Andre Johnson has an ankle issue.

Cincinnati @ 1.18
Cincinnati are 7-1-1 at home over the last 12 months. They are also 7-2 at the line at home with 6 of their last 7 home wins being by 13 points or more. Cincinnati may have star WR A.J. Green back this week. As a side note, I think the total has a good chance of going over 43.5.

San Francisco @ 1.20
San Francisco have won 5 of their last 7 at home and they are 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against St Louis. San Francisco have been battling with injuries this season but they will get a few players back after a timely bye last week.

New England +3 @ 2.05
New England are 8-0 at home over the last 12 months. I think each team has a 50% chance of winning which is why I'm taking the value with the home side.

Seattle @ 1.07
Oakland are on a 13-game losing streak and Seattle are excellent at home.

Pittsburgh @ 2.00
Pittsburgh have only lost 2 of their last 9 home games and they were fantastic offensively last week. They are the slight underdogs this week and Pittsburgh are 3-0 in their last 3 home games as the underdog.

Indianaplois @ 1.62
The NY Giants have beaten a number of teams this year but they have yet to defeat a playoff bound team. Indianapolis have a fantastic, high scoring offence and I think the Giants will struggle to keep up.

[blackswan]

Here are my results for Week 8:

Denver @ 1.27 (WIN)
Detroit @ 1.55 (WIN)
New England @ 1.42 (WIN)
Baltimore @ 2.00 (Loss)
Green Bay @ 2.10 (Loss)
Dallas @ 1.22 (Loss - in overtime)


If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -17.6 units on 60 units wagered. That was my first really bad result of the year. I'm kicking myself for not following my golden rule regarding backing the away teams against New Orleans and Cincinnati. Once again I'm annoyed with myself because I actually also backed:
Buffalo @ 2.25 (WIN), Kansas City @ 1.29 (WIN), Tampa Bay @ 1.67 (Loss), Pittsburgh @ 2.25 (WIN) and Carolina +5 @ 1.91 (WIN). Perhaps next week I won't be selective with the tips I publish because I tend to do worse when I do.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +7.6 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for week 8:

Denver @ 1.27
The Denver offence looks fantastic at the moment. San Diego are 5-2 this season, but they've had a soft schedule so far, with Kansas City and Seattle the only two decent teams they've played so far.

Detroit @ 1.55
Atlanta have lost their way. Their pass protection is awful, which doesn't bode well against Detroit's defence.

New England @ 1.42
New England are coming off 10 days rest while Chicago have been disappointing of late. New England are 8-0 in heir last 8 home games.

Baltimore @ 2.00
Cincinnati have struggled since AJ Green got injured. Cincinnati beat Baltimore away earlier this year so there will be some payback here. If AJ Green does play then ignore this pick!

Green Bay @ 2.10
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm taking the away team against New Orleans! New Orleans have been disappointing lately, and their 6-game winning streak at home was only kept alive against the lowly Tampa Bay after going into extra time.

Dallas @ 1.22
Dallas have now won 6 straight while Washington are throwing the dice by starting with Colt McCoy at QB. This will be McCoy's first start since 2011. McCoy did well after coming in against Tennessee last week, but playing away against Dallas is an entirely different ask.

[blackswan]

Here are my results for Week 7:

New England @ 1.23 - WIN (much closer than I would have liked!)
Baltimore @ 1.36 - WIN (easily)
Indianapolis @ 1.62 - WIN (easily)
Buffalo @ 1.42 - WIN (just)
San Diego @ 1.50 - Loss (just)
Dallas @ 1.38 - WIN
Oakland +6.5 @ 1.58 - Loss (just)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +0.1 units on 70 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +25.2 units

[blackswan]

One other pick for Week 7 is:

Oakland +6.5 @ 1.58
I was impressed by Oakland's performance last week and Arizona are missing a number of players on defence this week.

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for Week 7:

New England @ 1.23
I don't have much faith in Jets QB Geno Smith. New England are 8-0 at home over the last year while the Jets are 1-6 on the road. The -10.0 line on New England is tempting.

Baltimore @ 1.36
Baltimore are 6-2 at home over the last year while Atlanta are 1-8 on the road. Atlanta have won only 1 of their last 5 games while Baltimore have lost only 1 of their last 5.

Indianapolis @ 1.62
Indianapolis are playing really well at the moment while Cincinnati have lost their way a bit - especially on defence.

Buffalo @ 1.42
Buffalo aren't great however Minnesota have looked weak, plus they're poor away from home.

San Diego @ 1.50
Should be a good game. Bookmakers have been good at predicting Kansas City results when they're on the road (3-1 as favourite, 1-4 as underdog). San Diego have won 7 of their last 8 against Kansas City.

Dallas @ 1.38
Everyone keeps waiting for the Romo-led offence to slip up, but they've won 5 in a row now. The Giants offensive line got its arse kicked last week against Philadelphia. I don't see them keeping up with Dallas and having Victor Cruz out for the season doesn't help either.