NFL Picks

[blackswan]

Here are the results for the Super Bowl:

Under 48.5 @ 1.82 (Loss)
New England H2H @ 1.98 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -0.2 units on 20 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
Wildcard Weekend: 0 units wagered => +0.0 units (+0.0%)
Divisional Round: 40 units wagered => -21.2 units (-53.0%)
Conference Championships: 20 units wagered => +7.1 units (+35.5%)
Super Bowl: 20 units wagered => -0.2 units (-1.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +18.9 units

That's all for the season. Hope you enjoyed!

[blackswan]

Here is my pick for the Super Bowl

Under 48.5 @ 1.82

Seattle boasts the best defence in the league while the Patriots defence is ranked 8th in the league for points conceded. The previous visits for the Patriots to the Super Bowl have been low scoring affairs:
2012: Giants 21-17 Patriots
2008: Giants 17-14 Patriots
2005: Patriots 24-21 Eagles
2004: Patriots 32-29 Panthers
2002: Patriots 20-17 Rams
Only one of the above five games went over 48 points.

New England H2H @ 1.98

The Patriots were by far the more convincing team in the Conference Championships. I can see them outscoring Seattle in a low scoring affair. The main task for New England will be stopping Lynch.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for the conference championships:

Seattle @ 1.33 (WIN - never in doubt )
New England @ 1.38 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +7.1 units on 20 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
Wildcard Weekend: 0 units wagered => +0.0 units (+0.0%)
Divisional Round: 40 units wagered => -21.2 units (-53.0%)
Conference Championships: 20 units wagered => +7.1 units (+35.5%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +19.1 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for the conference championships:

Seattle @ 1.33
Seattle are 8-1 at home over the last 12 months while Green Bay are 4-4 on the road. Green Bay are 0-3 over the last 12 months as the road underdog. It's also worth noting that Green Bay are also 0-3 at the line as the road underdog while Seattle are 6-1-2 at the line as the home favourite.

New England @ 1.38
I'm hoping Indianapolis can cause an upset but the Patriots have an immense record at home. New England have won their last 5 straight against Indianapolis. Their last 3 wins were all by 19+ points.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for the Divisional Round:

Here are my picks for the Divisional Round:

Baltimore +7.0 @ 1.88 (WIN)
Seattle v Carolina - Under 40.5 @ 1.92 (Loss)
Green Bay v Dallas - over 51.5 @ 1.82 (Loss)
Denver -5.5 @ 1.77 (Loss)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -21.2 units on 40 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
Wildcard Weekend: 0 units wagered => +0.0 units (+0.0%)
Divisional Round: 40 units wagered => -21.2 units (-53.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +12.0 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for the Divisional Round:

Baltimore +7.0 @ 1.88
Baltimore have been a bogey team for New England in recent years. When Joe Flacco is on fire Baltimore look capable of beating anyone, so they are a dangerous side this post-season. Baltimore remind be of the NY Giants when they got hot during the playoffs, going on to win two Super Bowls.

Seattle v Carolina - Under 40.5 @ 1.92
This game features two excellent defences and two mediocre offences.

Green Bay v Dallas - over 51.5 @ 1.82
Green Bay went 7-1 over/under at home this season while Dallas went 7-1 over/under on the road. Both offences should do well this weekend. As a side note, Green Bay went 8-0 at home this season while Dallas went 8-0 on the road. Should be a great game.

Denver -5.5 @ 1.77
I don't think Denver will win the Super Bowl because I expect Peyton Manning's arm to tire as the playoffs wear on, but the Broncos had a bye last week so I expect him to be fully fit for this game.

[blackswan]

I don't have any picks for the Wild Card Weekend. Hopefully there will be more value next week.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for Week 17:

New Orleans @ 1.51 (WIN)
Minnesota @ 1.40 (WIN)
Houston @ 1.21 (WIN)
Dallas @ 1.40 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +15.2 units on 40 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
Week 17: 40 units wagered => +15.2 units (+38.0%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +33.2 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for Week 17:

New Orleans @ 1.51
After being so good at home and so bad on the road, New Orleans seemed to have flipped a switch mid-season. Their last 8 games (home & away) have been won by the visiting team and they're on the road this week. Tampa Bay will benefit by losing due to the implications for the 2015 NFL draft.

Minnesota @ 1.40
Chicago have been disappointing this season, both offensively and defensively. They enter this game on a 4-game losing streak.

Houston @ 1.21
Jacksonville are without a win on the road this season. Houston have a good record when installed as the favourite.

Dallas @ 1.40
Dallas can complete a clean sweep of 8 wins and 0 losses on the road if they can win this. They torched the playoff-bound Colts last week and I can't see Washington's inept offence keeping up with the scoring of Dallas.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for Week 16:

Philadelphia @ 1.30 (Loss)
San Diego @ 2.06 (WIN)
Under 41.5 @ 1.93 (Loss)
Green Bay @ 1.19 (WIN)
New Orleans @ 1.40 (Loss)
Pittsburgh @ 1.67 (WIN)
Arizona v Seattle Under 36.5 @ 1.95 (Loss)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -20.8 units on 70 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
Week 16: 70 units wagered => -20.8 units (-29.7%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +18.0 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for Week 16:

Philadelphia @ 1.30
Washington are on a six-game losing streak. Washington have yet to win this season as the home underdog and Philadelphia have yet to lose as the road favourite.

San Diego @ 2.06
Under 41.5 @ 1.93
San Francisco's offence has been ineffective and San Diego have a respectable 4-4 away record. San Francisco's defence is still very good, however, so I expect this to be a low scoring game.

Green Bay @ 1.19
Green Bay have a 4-1 record on the back of a loss. Tampa Bay have lost their last 6 home games and have nothing but pride to play for at the moment.

New Orleans @ 1.40
New Orleans' mid-season slump seems to be behind them and Atlanta have little to play for.

Pittsburgh @ 1.67
Pittsburgh should win this, although they have been painfully unpredictable this season.

Arizona v Seattle Under 36.5 @ 1.95
Two defensively strong teams going head to head. The total could very easily stay below 30.

[blackswan]

I don't have any plays for the Monday Night game, so here are the results for Week 15:

NY Giants @ 1.37 (WIN)
New England @ 1.29 (WIN)
Oakland +10.5 @ 1.92 (Loss)
Indianapolis @ 1.36 (WIN)
Cleveland @ 1.92 (Loss)
Balitmore @ 1.12 (WIN)
Green Bay @ 1.49 (Loss)
Seattle @ 1.22 (WIN)
Seattle v SF - Under 38.5 @ 1.85 (WIN)
Detroit @ 1.26 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is -5.3 units on 100 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
Week 15: 100 units wagered => -5.3 units (-5.3%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +38.8 units

[blackswan]

Here are my picks for Week 15:

NY Giants @ 1.37
Washington are a mess at the moment, particularly at the QB position, while the Giants recently snapped their losing streak with a convincing away win over Tennessee. The Giants have won four of the last five head to heads with Washington and Washington are 1-7 on the road over the last 12 months. The Giants are 3-1 as the home favourite over the last 12 months.

New England @ 1.29
Miami are a good team, but I don't back anyone to get a result when they visit New England, who are undefeated at home over the last 12 months. New England have won 7 of their last 8 at home against Miami.

Oakland +10.5 @ 1.92
I give Oakland an outside chance of causing a major upset here. They beat Kansas City at home a few weeks ago and Kansas City haven't won a game since. Oakland beat San Francisco last week, which will have given them a major confidence boost. Despite their woes this season Oakland have only lost 2 of their 7 away losses by more than 12 points.

Indianapolis @ 1.36
Indianapolis are excellent at home and they've won 5 of their last 6 against Houston. Houston have been predictable on the road this season, going 3-0 as the road favourite and 1-4 as the road underdog.

Cleveland @ 1.92
With Johnny Manziel getting the start at QB for Cleveland this week, I can see him sparking their offence into life.

Balitmore @ 1.12
On paper this should be very one sided. Jacksonville are winless on the road over the last 12 months.

Green Bay @ 1.49
Green Bay are 4-0 when installed as the road favourite this season. I wouldn't back them at the -6.5 line, but they have a habit of winning away games with tight scorelines. Green Bay raced off to a healthy lead last week but their defence was awful against Atlanta in the 2nd half, so Green Bay's defence will have a point to prove this weekend.

Seattle @ 1.22
Under 38.5 @ 1.85
San Francisco have an excellent defence, but their offence has been awful in recent months. I expect Seattle to win in a low scoring affair. The total when they met two weeks ago in Seattle was just 22!

Detroit @ 1.26
Detroit are a strong home team while Minnesota have a poor away record. Detroit already beat Minnesota 17-3 earlier in the season away from home.

[blackswan]

Here are the results for Week 14:

Dallas @ 1.57 (WIN)
St Louis @ 1.70 (WIN)
NY Giants @ 1.95 (WIN)
New Orleans @ 1.21 (Loss)
Minnesota @ 1.38 (WIN)
Baltimore @ 2.30 (WIN)
Houston @ 1.44 (WIN)
Detroit @ 1.22 (WIN)
Denver @ 1.22 (WIN)
Oakland v San Francisco - under 40.5 @ 2.00 (WIN)
Green Bay @ 1.18 (WIN)

If 10 units were wagered on each, the result is +49.6 units on 110 units wagered.

=========================================
Season tally:
=========================================
Week 4: 70 units wagered => +5.2 units (+7.4%)
Week 5: 170 units wagered => +24.2 units (+14.2%)
Week 6: 70 units wagered => -4.3 units (-6.1%)
Week 7: 70 units wagered => +0.1 units (+0.14%)
Week 8: 70 units wagered => -17.6 units (-29.3%)
Week 9: 100 units wagered => +10.0 units (+10.0%)
Week 10: 80 units wagered => -14.6 units (-18.3%)
Week 11: 40 units wagered => -10.8 units (-27.0%)
Week 12: 140 units wagered => +26.5 units (18.9%)
Week 13: 50 units wagered => -24.2 units (-48.4%)
Week 14: 110 units wagered => +49.6 units (+45.1%)
------------------------------------------
Total +/-: +44.1 units

[blackswan]

Hmmm. It seems the more selective I am with my picks the worse I do. With that in mind here are my picks for Week 14:

Dallas @ 1.57
Dallas are 6-1 on the road over the last 12 months. They are 4-0 as the road favourite while Chicago are 0-2 as the home underdog.

St Louis @ 1.70
Washington have been disappointing this season while St Louis have beaten the likes of Denver, San Francisco (away) and Seattle.

NY Giants @ 1.95
Both Tennessee and the NY Giants have been awful this season, but the Giants look closer to breaking their losing streak after close losses to San Francisco, Dallas and Jacksonville.

New Orleans @ 1.21
Carolina have been hammered on the road of late. New Orleans may have turned a corner after their upset win over Pittsburgh.

Minnesota @ 1.38
Minnesota are a tough team to play when they're at home. They hammered Carolina last week and the red hot Green Bay Packers only won by 3 a few weeks ago.

Baltimore @ 2.30
I give Baltimore a real chance of upsetting Miami this week. They've won their last three trips to Miami.

Houston @ 1.44
Houston have won their last two away games against teams of similar strength to Jacksonville. Houston have some excellent defensive players like JJ Watt who will thrive against a struggling team.

Detroit @ 1.22
Better teams than Tampa Bay have gone to Detroit and lost this season. I can't see Tampa Bay's offence keeping up with Detroit's rate of scoring.

Denver @ 1.22
Things are looking ominous for the rest of the competition now that the Broncos appear to have their running game working.

Oakland v San Francisco - under 40.5 @ 2.00
Both offenses have struggled while San Francisco have an excellent defence.

Green Bay @ 1.18
Green Bay at home are notoriously difficult to beat and Atlanta won't enjoy the cold outdoor venue given they play indoor home games.