EPL Betting Tips

[pominoz]

Hi everyone,

While I don't bet blindly based on other people's tips, I'm always keen to hear them to see if they confirm my own thinking or point out something I have missed.

I thought I'd share my Premier League thoughts; in case anyone is interested.

HERE ARE MY TIPS FOR GAMEWEEK 17:

Aston Villa v Man City: Aston Villa +0.5 @ 1.83
Happy to take on Man City at the moment. Their derby game against United was a poor-quality game. City has won just 1 of its last 7 league games.

Brentford v Nottingham Forest: O 2.5 @ 1.76
Brentford's home games have been consistently full of goals. Forest's games have been high scoring too.

Crystal Palace v Arsenal - Arsenal H2H @ 1.62
Arsenal rotated their squad in their midweek EFL Cup win over Palace, while Palace went with a full-strength squad. Arsenal's key players only played in the second half, so they should be the fresher side.

Fulham v Southampton - Fulham H2H @ 1.44
Happy to oppose Southampton at any price. Also, the Saints were involved in the EFL Cup midweek, while Fulham were not

Leicester City v Wolves - O 2.5 @ 1.67
Neither side can defend.

Tottenham v Liverpool - Liverpool H2H @ 1.75
Liverpool's EFL Cup game was a day earlier than Tottenham's, plus Spurs have a banged-up squad.

Odds sourced from here:
http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=1

[qtip]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts pominz!

For the Wolves game I'm keeping an eye on whether Cunha is suspended. If he plays then I'm with you on the overs, if he doesn't then I'm less confident.

For Tottenham v Liverpool my angle is for Liverpool to win in a high scoring game. Something like a 4-3 score line wouldn't surprise, so I'm eyeing up SGMs like
Liverpool & over 2.5 @ $1.95
Liverpool & over 3.5 @ $2.60
Liverpool & over 4.5 @ $3.75
Liverpool & over 5.5 @ $6.50
Liverpool & over 6.5 @ $10.00
I might also have something simply on a high scoring game.

[qtip]

Congrats on your results pominoz! Cunha did play so I did take the overs, but I didn't expect the 0-3 scoreline.

Liverpool and Tottenham played out the type of game I expected. I wasn't a million miles away with 4-3. I just wish I had taken over 6.5 @ 10 rather than over 2.5 @ 1.95!

[pominoz]

Ha, thanks. You were spot on with the Tottenham game yourself.

I don't have a strong conviction for this round, so I will have a couple of throws at the stumps.

Man City 0-0 Everton @ 17.00
Not completely out of the question. Everton have been involved in 5 goalless games this season. This includes 4 of the last 6 and their last 2. They can't score in a month of Sundays, but Dyche has them very well organised and they have an excellent goalkeeper. Man City, as we all know, are completely out of sorts at the moment.

Brighton 2-1 Brentford @ 8.00
I'm copying some of the notes from James Bartman's article for this one. First, Brentford have gone 0-1-7 away from home this season. Second, 5 of Brighton's last 7 home wins were by 1 goal. Third, 9 of Brentford's last 14 away defeats were by 1 goal. Fourth, Brighton's last 2 wins were by 2-1 scorelines. Fifth, half of Brentford's 8 defeats this season were by 1-2 scorelines. Sixth, Brighton won this game 2-1 last December.

Odds sourced from here:
http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=1

[pominoz]

HERE ARE MY TIPS FOR GAMEWEEK 19:

Leicester v Man City - Man City H2H @1.32
As bad as Man City have been, Leicester City have conceded 4, 3 and 3 goals in their last three games, whilst scoring just once. If City can't win this game then I don't know what to say!

Everton v Nottingham Forest - Nottingham Forest double chance @ 1.49
Forest have won four in a row. They sit 4th in the standings and still aren't being given the credit they deserve. Everton are a draw machine. They have won just one of their last nine games.

Crystal Palace v Southampton - under 2.5 @ 2.14
Southampton's last two games ended 0-0 and 0-1. Ignoring Palace's games against Arsenal and Man City, their prior home games saw 2, 2, 1, 1, and 0 total goals.

West Ham v Liverpool- Liverpool H2H @ 1.38
West Ham have a banged-up squad. Liverpool manage to win even when they don't play well.

Man Utd v Newcastle - Newcastle H2H @ 2.60
Happy to take on United in their current crap form.

Odds sourced from here:
http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=1

[qtip]

Congrats on going 4 from 5 in GW 19. You were a tad unlucky with the Palace v Southampton score given Palace's 1st goal arguably shouldn't have been awarded.

I look forward to your next instalment! My current leans for GW20 are:
Newcastle & over 2.5
Palace +1.5
Bournemouth & under 2.5
Liverpool to win to nil

[pominoz]

Thanks mate. All three of my H2H picks won by 2 or more goals, so the -1.5 handicaps would have fared better, but hindsight is 20/20! I just feel that too often I'm not aggressive enough.

Your own tips for Gameweek 20 look sound. I might steal a couple for myself.

HERE ARE MY TIPS FOR GAMEWEEK 20:

Tottenham v Newcastle - SGM: Newcastle H2H & over 2.5 @ 2.50
Tottenham look out of sorts while Newcastle are firing on all cylinders. Because Spurs are at home, they will be aggressive, which will give Newcastle opportunities galore.

Man City v West Ham - Man City -1.5 @ 1.64
I will take my own advice and take the handicap rather than the H2H. West Ham are without their captain Jarrod Bowen, which is a huge out. Nine of their last ten away defeats were by more than a goal.

Aston Villa - Leicester - Aston Villa -1.5 @ 1.95
Aston Villa have been strong at home, where they have won three of their last four. Leicester have lost four on the trot, all by more than a goal. Was Ruud van Nistelrooy the right appointment?

Bournemouth v Everton - under 3.5 @ 1.40
Bournemouth have had low scoring games at home, but their xG at home is much higher than actual goals, so mean reversion may come into play. Everton, though, are the King of low scoring fixtures.

Liverpool v Man Utd - SGM: Liverpool & under 5.5 @ 1.80
This is a bit of a contrarian bet, because everyone is expecting a massacre. Most of Liverpool's biggest wins under Slot have been away from home, where the host side feels compelled to come out of its shell and attack. At Anfield their opposition plays more defensively. 11 of Liverpool's previous 14 home wins were by 1 or 2 goals. They have yet to win by 3+ at home in the EPL under Slot.

Odds sourced from here:
http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=1

[pominoz]

For those who are interested, my returns so far are:
(1) Units per play = 1: +6.7%
(2) Units per play = 2/odds: +15.8%
(3) Units per play = 1/(odds -1): +22.4%

I've been playing around with three units approaches and comparing their returns.
(1) Wagers the same amount for all bets. The loss for all losing bets is 1 unit.
(2) Wagers more for lower odds selections. > 1 unit for odds below 2.00 and < 1 unit for odds above 2.00.
(3) Like (2), wagers more for lower odds selections, but this one aims for the same profit on all winning bets. The profit for all winning bets is 1 unit.

Anyway, onto the next round.

HERE ARE MY TIPS FOR GAMEWEEK 21:

This round is tougher due to the managerial changes. I had been keen on under 2.5 for Everton v Aston Villa, but will Moyes' appointment change things?

Brentford v Man City - Man City H2H @ 1.67
I'm backing that Man City have turned a corner. Brentford don't have a good record this season against the strongest teams.

West Ham v Fulham - draw @ 3.50
Fulham have drawn five of their last six games. They have drawn five of their last six away games when they've been installed as the favourite. Fulham drew West Ham earlier in the season.

Newcastle v Wolves - Newcastle H2H @ 1.36
Newcastle is firing on all cylinders at the moment. Five wins in a row and only one goal conceded!

Odds sourced from here:
http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=1

[pominoz]

HERE ARE MY TIPS FOR GAMEWEEK 22:

Newcastle v Bournemouth - Newcastle H2H @ 1.64
Newcastle is the hottest team in the Prem at the moment.

Leicester v Fulham - Fulham draw no bet @ 1.42
Leicester has lost 6 in a row. Fulham has only lost 1 of 9.

Arsenal v Aston Villa - Arsenal H2H @ 1.51
The Gunners bring a 7-3-0 form line into this game. They beat Villa already this season. Villa has a 0-0-4 away record this season against sides above them on the table.

Man Utd v Brighton - Brighton double chance @ 1.77
The Seagulls won their last two visits to Old Trafford as well as 4 of their last 5 against the Red Devils, both home and away. United weren't at all convincing in their win over Southampton and they went 1-1-5 before that game. Brighton is unbeaten in 5 games.

Nottingham Forest v Southampton - Forest H2H @ 1.44
Nottingham Forest is 9 places higher on the table than Man Utd, yet you're getting higher odds for them to beat Southampton at home than for Man Utd in Gameweek 21. Forest has had 2 more days to prepare for this game than Southampton. Forest has won 6 of the last 7 (they drew Liverpool in the one they didn't win). Southampton has lost 7 of the last 8.

Odds sourced from here:
http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=1